The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) fell by 0.6% in April to 101.8 with a smaller decrease than the previous 6 months.
A decline in new orders, negative yield spread, and drop in new building permits creates the drag.
The US expected to not go into recession but inflation, household debt, and spent savings seem to indicate some future issues.
GDP growth is expected to be under 1%.
May 17th, 2024 LEI Conference Board
Global cities with open value systems draw international investment. The reasons this occurs is because of culture and the risk of investing in new places. Thus developing cultures that are open to different kinds of people, institutions run in a way that creates net positives, judicial-justice systems that protect the root assumptions of such systems, flexibility with investors, setting up strong policies, being strategic about opportunities, marketing, lifestyle, etc. all make a difference. None are the home run but they are often part of the game. You may want to read a study on Investing in Global Cities.
Let me give you an example. There are lots of positive aspects to a locality but it struggles in a few areas with institutional integrity. Complaints of corruption, bigotries, hyper politics, retaliation, etc. and a lack of accountability makes a big difference in appeal. All other things could be fine, or in a state of improvement, but if the there is a factor warping the cultural investment appeal, i.e. good old boy networks, then investors may opt for places more open to diverse workers (human capital recruitment and retention.)
Within any system there is the external environment and the internal environment. Environmental Scanning. While the general national and international market create incentives to invest, it is up to the locality to develop a place worthy of investment and learn how to attract those investors. That requires a global perspective and perception. It can be learned and it can be taught but only if one is open minded to new experiences, peoples, and ideas. Global Perception
While there may be some detractors such as inflation or supply chain issues, a strong system can create enough positives through infrastructure, education, events, tax rate, living standard, etc. to minimize risks. Minimizing risks and maximizing growth are an environmental assessment. Think of it like a percentage or ranking. The external environment might put a -2, national hyper politics another -1 (you can add as many as you want) but the system is well run and has a +4 ranking so it is investment worthy (The higher you rank, the more investments a location can attract.). International companies would be interested in the place based on stability and based on a totality of factors that align with their industry and corporate needs.
How does one create a strong system that attracts investment?
There are many ways but a few can help such as sustained commitment to development, attracting investment interest, building lifestyle appeal, ensuring institutions act with integrity, strong leaders come forward (poor ones leave), managing infrastructure so on and so forth. In other words, they have to get everyone rowing in the same direction and living by their shared principles (We mighy call this root values that are universal to all people.). Reversing trends is possible with commitment.
"Many hands make like work." John Heywood
While you can't guarantee this or that investment will come or go you can ensure the investment environment is attractive and open to new ideas and peoples. In a chaotic world a positive growth oriented smart city is better than a dull one. Globally attractive cities are open to globally open to differences and function off the highest ethical standards to create a stable economic base. Everything in this life is a choice, so choose the highest ideals and standards. It is important for you and for society. Economics is related to underlining values and the choices that come from those values. Economics and Values.
Some theorist have argued if you have shared values and principles that create coordinated activities growth is possible. Business Ethics as a Catalyst to Growth
*This article is a hypothetical example as a thought experiment on freedom of speech and religion. Take with a grain of salt.
In today's world we have lots of recruitment issues going on in the military but not a lot of solutions on how to deal with those issues. Likewise, human capital development is going to be a big part of how to successful master the military and intellectual challenges of the future. As the world and technology become more complex, there will naturally be a need to beef up the skills and development of the military and specifically the officers that direct units in high technological shifting environments.
Thus, changing environments require a broader understanding of that environment and underpinnings of systems then would be possible in training alone. Strategic Thinking is often fostered as a broad set and Military Skills as a more narrow training set. Academia often does well with broad strategies while the military often excels in training. Marrying them in some way can lead to inner and outer understandings that are useful for execution and adaptation.
What if you could tie the two together?
There are similarities between the two and one can infuse training into broader academic education and pair them together. This actually would be beneficial as hands on training provides specific use within a broader context that is found in school. Learning using different senses, focal lenses, and activities embeds such learning through multiple pathways and styles. It is not only beneficial for the military but any leadership position in business or public service. Augmenting Military Skills Online, Military Management Adaptation, Socio Cognitive View, Emergent Transformational Leadership,
One can consider going deeper in the neural development where deeper learning can be fostered through problem resolution (applied theory), competency development (A learning metric), symbolic/subconscious/implicit development (Definition of Symbolic Learning) and hands on experience to create rich learning (hands on training). When rich learning develops it often creates new neural networks and those are chosen pathways for dealing with issues during crisis with enough broad knowledge to adjust/adapt when necessary.
Anyway, theoretical dribble dribble....
The report offers a constructionist view. I have always been a big supporter of the military so this journal article offers its own perspective because they have honor. Honor Codes
Mclean & Company put together a 2024 HR trend report. You can obtain a copy of that HERE. This is a good report for executives to pick up and take a look at. I presented a few pieces of information below because they highlight how important strong HR practices are to the functioning of the whole. The next era of America's development is in human capital and HR is going to be part of that.
-HR involvement in strategic planning moved from 36% in 2021 to 50% in 2024.
-HR involvement improves decision making 2.7X.
-HR involvement improves decision making 65% and leveraging data 63%.
-68% of HR respondents said that technology can help reduce capacity restrictions.
-85% of HR involved in strategic organizational planning have priorities aligned with broader organizational needs.
-HR that using data well are seen as 2.3X more effective.
-32% of office workers are seen as having strong leadership skills.
-81% are not changing their work from home and office rules.
-88% are not changing work flexibility rules.
-79% feel that GenAI have helped in productivity.
The supply chain has been improving since early 2023 and in the past few months a third to half of businesses reported issues with supply chains. Those costs have been passed onto consumers and that likely is encouraging persistent inflation. The blog is pretty good and it looks like they are going to start writing about the supply chain every month so you may want to check back. Supply Chain Disruptions
Current issues and happenings of world do create issues with the supply chain. I'm a advocate for shortening these chains a little, diversifying them, and putting the U.S. at the center of the supply chain where the highest value is created.
According to the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco 60% of run up inflation can be related to supply chain issues. Global Supply Chain Shock
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| Source: Liberty Station Economics |
As a nation seeking to advance we need all the new ideas we can get without snuffing them out because they don't fit someone's agenda or put resources in the hands of those who can't adequately maximize its good to society. Gifted people have been seen as exceptional super human performers but that is far from the truth. They are strong in some areas, and weak in others, yet hold untapped potential that can be maximized for growth. Despite the historical perception as statistical outliers they are regular people who did not ask for these gifts and rarely have all the answers.
| Business Insider Einstein was a funny guy! |
Another example of having more questions than answers might be,
Many have the capacity for natural leadership and others can invent new things, develop works of art, out perform others in sports. A few can even advance based on wiring in multiple intelligence domains. That might make them exceptional underdeveloped talent that comes with all types of environmental problems when dealing with others.
Two journal articles on Multiple Intelligences you may find interesting.
1. Multiple Intelligence Neuro Basis
Whether they are day dreaming or investigating important but unrewarded topics in science they are contributors. All to often because they are in the wrong environments so they are either drowned out by less skilled but more aggressive members or not offered opportunities to explore their talents. Skill is lost on underperformance in menial unrewarding jobs (i.e. dishwashing seemed sort of an interesting solution to a lack of environmental integrity.)
Their capital is wasted and smashed against the rocks of poor education, dogma, and herd ignorance. It is their uniqueness in physical, moral, and intellectual capacity that can turn neurodivergence into productive masters of fate. This means they can change and build a better environment if they have traveled down that long unforgiving path of awareness. Understanding the risks of common shortsighted thinking can go a long way in human capital development.
(Shhhh 🤫 don't tell anyone there is room for improvement they could get really upset! Especially if they don't benefit at the expense of society. ).
Gifted people have different brains and they can process a lot of information at once. They do run some risks of burnout based on perfectionism, lack of time, or excessive demands. However, teaching them insight/wisdom on what they can and can't control goes a long way. Tapping deeper and making a clear distinction between their skill and their environment's ability to understand those skills is helpful. Gifted Neurodivergence
Consider this interesting podcast on the blessing and curse of exceptional talent.
The other day I got bored and biked over to Ocean Beach looking for supper and something to do. Walking down Newport Avenue I was able to pick up two neat deals. I'm a sucker for bargains! The first was 5 street tacos for $5 and the other two a Hawaiian style t-shirt for $3 and a heavy Oneal Flannel jacket for $10. Surfers love these! That is bargain shopping at its best!
Besides, some of the stuff I like I obtained from thrift stores. Yes, I mostly buy new like everyone else but sometimes you find unique items that are comfortable, fits you like a glove, and used. As I get older I'm less worried about my looks. The Porsche is long gone. :) Loved that car! No need to look like you have things if those things no longer define you.
One thing to think about is that thrift stores sift through clothes and typically put the ones out that believe will sell. Good shop owners have a knack for finding the cool stuff.
Good business ideas can come from anywhere. One persons junk is another's opportunity. Yep I'm still styling!
Thrift Store Market Size:
-Thrift stores, non profit, increased over the past 5 years to $14.2 billion. Thrift Store Increase
-Most thrift stores ae related to closing. Thrift Store Stats
