S&P Global PMI Rises: Indicates Expanded Manufacturing in the US (Feb. 22, 2024 Theory Development)

Rise manufacturing orders, expanding manufacturing jobs, and general growth trajectory seem to point to a stronger economy. The rise in manufacturing and implementation of innovative technologies matched with human capital can further economic expansion (based on global marketing and demand) of U.S. produced goods (The goal is to be at the highest place in the supply chain where advanced manufacturing and creativity/innovation/human capital produce the most ROI in value.). What we want to see is increases in exports and dips in imports.

Exports and dips would show consumer demand naturally opting for higher demand American products that compounds American wealth. We would also want exports to rise so that money is drawn into the U.S. system and with luck to encourage broad based capitalism where the working, creative, middle, and entrepreneurial class get the biggest advantages so as to encourage economic engagement.

(From my theory standpoint I'm watching core inflation rise, reviewing these indexes, and watching to see signs of economic homeostasis where higher GDP growth is common versus pre Pandemic. i.e. platform shift. One explanation is that Covid forced many U.S. companies to go online and in turn speed development much like when the Internet hit the market and increased GDP. 

With rapid change like AI and other sciences we could be experiencing the leading edge of a Renaissance that historically accompanies wide sociological and technology changes matched with human capital enhancements. i.e. improved opportunities for the next generation and growth options for the best and brightest. We are still struggling in this nation with human capital and education issues so we have knowledge/science bottlenecks. We are also struggling with strategic decision making due to political dysfunction that could be limiting our opportunities.

There are some interesting points below that we should consider. Me, I'm just watching to see what happens. 

Key Points S&P Global Composite Index:

Flash US PMI Composite Output Index(1) at 51.4 (January: 52.0). 2-month low. 

Flash US Services Business Activity Index(2) at 51.3 (January: 52.5). 3-month low. 

Flash US Manufacturing Output Index(4) at 52.3 (January: 49.3). 10-month high. 

Flash US Manufacturing PMI(3) at 51.5 (January: 50.7). 17-month high

UoM Study-Detroit Outlook to 2028: Lower Inflation, Higher Wages, Job Growth and Optimism Rising (Should Industry Notice?)

Detroit is looking like a much stronger and optimistic place when compared to when it slipped during the bankruptcy, wobbly got to its feet, and is now off the ropes swinging and landing punches! For some industries, Detroit could garner additional interest from a global market still looking for places ripe for advanced manufacturing (i.e. as a place of growing industrial power.). Sometimes you can build from the infrastructure and skills of the past to develop something stronger. (Boxing Motivation.)

(Met a few boxers in my life. I happened to meet him briefly for a second in Greektown as one of the many millions of people he has likely met in his life. I still box for fitness but was never good good because i had other pursuits. It is a good augmentation for fitness. Sorry...side note. Remember its a blog so there may be random stuff included.) 

Things are looking cautiously optimistic for Detroit. They might beat the market on a number of metrics that can increase its market appeal. 

(I think of Detroit as a place where modern industries can be built and produced. All the things that made Detroit great in the past might add up to even greater future.)

Consider some trends, 

-Detroit residents income will rise 3.7% from '24 to '28 which is higher then the state average of 3.0 % (Cha Ching!)

-Detroit unemployment rose 8.2% but is historically a declining trend (Looking optimistic overall.). 

-Detroit residents’ total real income per capita grows by a cumulative 7.7 percent from 2023 to 2028. (This is helpful for improving local wealth retention.)

-Local inflation is likely to decline in line with other places to 2.5% from '25 to '28. 

This seems to be positive news for the city that went through a bankruptcy in 2022/12. It has a special place in our history and is central to Michigan's competitive abilities as industries change and seek fertile manufacturing ground.

City of Detroit Forecast '24 to '28

Also a nice article in Michigan Advance. Detroit Forecast '28 MI. Advan.

The Need to Enhance Military Supply Chain (US Secretary of Navy Challenges Suppliers)

The U.S. is in a situation where capacity needs to speed up, innovation quicker, and recruitment enhanced. While we are still the strongest military in existence at this time we are being challenged on multiple fronts. That will require doing things in new ways and pushing the supply chain to develop and be more nimble. New thoughts, new ways to do things, and perhaps in some cases new suppliers. 

In all business we should be nimble and adaptable. Where there are deficiencies, there is room for improvement. That requires thinking about how we are currently doing things and improving on existing processes. Trust me, there are always ways to improve any system. That is any system.

Sometimes we can do completely new things and find higher results. Nothing stays the same for long and when it does it typically gets lets effective over time. Adjustment is part of the overall process for enhanced performance.

You may read. US Secretary of the Navy criticises industry suppliers

-Poor delivery times

-Poor capacity

(I have an idea for advanced clusters to improve the industry innovation chain and multiple industries to create butterfly effects but the idea hasn't caught on. Typically, these are more political issues than practical ones. No guarantees but the science is supported. I also know a great location to build prototype mid or small ships, robotics or equipment. Its a small place but within  the vicinity of a larger supply chain that can take new ideas and maximize them for larger production. )

Let me say this, I respect our military and the people who serve and support. Our supply chain needs some changes to improve capacity, new weapons, (duel with space and robotics), adaptability and the capacity to supply multiple conflicts over a long period of time. All of that comes down to exploring new things and getting outside the box. Taking some strategic and reasonable chances.

Consider Product Life Cycle and Swotch  and Aligning Organizational Strategies. Sometimes adjusting the incentives, leadership, information pathways, and resources can help. Other times one can study and improve current processes. The key point is that improvement takes work and commitment by the entire chain. Innovation should be rewarded.

Not particularly a popular thought among some political leadership corners but if our young men and women are willing to put themselves at risk than it is somewhat incumbent on our military's suppliers to put everything they got into building the best equipment and capacity they can. It saves lives and it accomplishes missions. Of particular importance, our nation needs it!

We must look beyond our pocketbooks (An interesting video on philosophy on money. If your interested in philosophy.). 

I thought you might enjoy this motivating video.....

Conference Board Index CEI Indicates No Recession but Possible Slow Growth Q2 and Q3, 2024

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index (CEI) for the U.S. rose by 0.2 percent in January 2024 to 112.1 (2016=100). That is after a 0.2 percent increase in December 2023. It does not signal a recession but does project slower real GDP growth Q2 and Q3. 

We will just have to wait to see what happens. Let us keep an eye out for other information from other sources that comes forward to see which way the winds are blowing.

Key Points:

-Six out of its ten components were positive contributors over the past six-month period.

- Three out of four components of the index were positive in January, with payroll employment and personal income having a bigger factor.

-Slow real GDP growth around Q2 and Q3.

There are 10 components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (Conference Board, 2024, para 6.), quoted, 

(If you don't know what the components mean read Description of Components)

"The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for the U.S. include: Average weekly hours in manufacturing; Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance; Manufacturers’ new orders for consumer goods and materials; ISM® Index of New Orders; Manufacturers’ new orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders; Building permits for new private housing units; S&P 500® Index of Stock Prices; Leading Credit Index™; Interest rate spread (10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds rate); Average consumer expectations for business conditions.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/ "

The Conference Board (Feb. 20, 2024) US Leading Economic Index® (LEI) Fell Further in January. https://www.blogger.com/blog/post/edit/2923159674379861305/2952137772727677595

What is Presidents Day?

 In case your interested today is Presidents Day! Interesting video I was listening to in the background while I was working on other stuff. 

The Science of Hate: Should People be Judged by Merit or Superficial Differences?

Hate is one of those things that is destructive to society but persists in the nooks and crannies where the light of good moral conscious is dim. There are evolutionary aspects to hate that persist today in various facets of society. One only needs to talk to the recipients of hate to grasp the profound impact it has on society. Where it exists we should improve, where it is protected we should correct, and where it is actualized we should reform (Words of Wisdom).

Each man and woman in society should be judged on merit and not on superficial race, religion, or other variances in existence (any society and any place). We owe it to the concept of justice and to the very basic aspects of social contracts to improve where there are deficiencies of judgement and outcomes. One might even argue that every person has a moral responsibility to improve when they have the capacity to do so (A higher metric).

(I have been using a long running hypothetical example of targeted hate. In this example, minority family was targeted consistently over 5 years based on hate, corruption and extremism. The perpetrators were protected due to social ethnocentric affiliations. The targets are forgiving people and simply want a correction to ensure the public is protected from future harm and incentives of such hate are removed.

I think this would be a good example of what we want victims of hate to do because it is constructive and prosocial in orientation. Hate is the opposite and it detracts from society and weakens human capital competitiveness through signaling to other minorities through identity aggression. Most cultures believe that light, truth, helpfulness are more important than dark, dishonesty and destructiveness. It is a universal concept for a universal democracy.)

I encourage people, specifically, the next generation, to think about how universal and fair treatment leads to greater national competitiveness and moral purpose. Patriotism and doing the right thing even when its not popular. Group think or unexamined false beliefs have been the cause of many historic missteps that people cringe at in hindsight (An improper lens due to lack of diversity issue.). 

To me patriotism is about pushing for the best most functional and competitive society we can create. Lack of deeper patriotism is working in the opposite way. This is why when one comes to a crossroads I always encourage to think about the greater versus the lower because it leads to the best outcomes. 

"Wisdom alone is the science of other sciences" Plato

*The information in this article is designed for learning purposes only. The choices to accept new learning and change is a sign of that learning. 

The Hypothetical Feather Party Supports Improving National Decision Making (Illustrative Example Only)

We have changes coming in this country because each sprouting generation brings with it newer and more enlightened values learned from the successes and failures of the past. The founding fathers knew that we should never be sticky or irrationally staunch without considering the greater needs of society. Thus, they developed a system that can handle beneficial change and we do that in a democracy through discussion and vote. A younger generation will take their seat at the table and they will vote in act in ways that overcome the problems of their time. Values, structure of democracy, and whatever assets we earned from good governances of the past are the only things we can pass on.

Society also adapts by incorporating new ideas and people into decision making positions at various places and levels in society. Gen Z and Millennials are large and different when compared to prior generations and thus will have new needs, hopes and desires. All the decisions should focus just over the horizon. Generation Demo US '22

(The Feather Party is a Hypothetical for learning purposes on the concepts of vote tipping through a stronger independent block of politicians and voters that break deadlocks based on the needs of the younger generations. If such a party exists it would support strong leaders from a wider more balanced pool of diverse Americans based on their quality of character and desire to support fundamental American values. The benefit of the hypothetical party is that merit is the fundamentals of a democracy and broad based capitalism. Every man and women should earn based on their actualized skills and judged by their character in a diverse environment that supports their natural desires to compete. They are a human capital and humanism hypothetical type party. The Feather Party)

When fewer and more wealthy people making more decisions for 100's of millions of Americans we must ensure they are strengthening the fundamentals of what a modern America would and should look like. We do that best by electing leaders who can understand resource optimization and market competitiveness through evidence based strategic decision making around shared goals of all of society. Rich and poor all have a stake in how the nation is run. Not just one and not just the other but every American citizen. The Great Experiment

Furthermore, accuracy improves when we include diverse peoples with diverse perspectives at the very top of society where choices impact outcomes. The best and brightest should rise to important positions so as to ensure we have people who are most capable to lead so as to avoid unconstructive politics or slipping of our legacy. Notice of how status quo groups have some difficulty in passing solutions and how a third party with tippable strength could help. Decision Making Traps

(Interesting, perhaps a smaller party of pro democracy protectors that help guide the other two parties to solutions by creating political lubricant. i.e. you can't just convince your party but also must convince some of other parties in a way that helps round out decisions.)

No one would put together an advanced team of decision makers that could be influenced by group think and struggle to perform independently. When it comes to decision making we desire to encourage leaders who focus more on the bigger picture and with less emphasis on party loyalty (Not as though its not important but should be less important than the nation.). No matter what our current place of performance we can improve decision making by including different perspectives more connected to daily life and the way in which people live in a Middle Class, Working, Entrepreneurial, and Creative Class level. 

These are not debates on, for, or against any party but the ability to think beyond current dynamics. 

1. Pick those who can think independently but can vote with others when needed.  

2. Pick those who can construct logical and well thought out ideas. Evidence based decision making.

3. Pick those who care about their children and grand children more than themselves. The less selfish the better.

4. Pick from different groups, people, demographic levels to raise diversity and shared decision making. Seek to understand a problem from multiple angels before deciding on strategy.

5. Pick those who will uphold our social contracts. These are people who understand that even when they don't get something they want the social contracts are more important than their desires.

6. Pick Those who can handle disagreements and don't quickly attack those who have alternative perspectives (Its a leadership quality thing!)

Add as many as you want. You get the idea....

*This is for illustrative purposes. It does not exist.

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