The blog discusses current affairs and development of national economic and social health through unique idea generation. Consider the blog a type of thought experiment where ideas are generated to be pondered but should never be considered definitive as a final conclusion. It is just a pathway to understanding and one may equally reject as accept ideas as theoretical dribble. New perspectives, new opportunities, for a new generation. “The price of freedom is eternal vigilance.”—Thomas Jefferson
What you will notice in the report is that inflation is declining. supply chain issues linger, geopolitical issues (could impact influence and trade), cost of borrowing is still high, etc. are contributing to the economy both positively and negatively. We often think of things in isolation but in the realities of life there are many factors that contribute to overall economic health. Once we understand the market we can improve the ability to meet those market challenges.
The overview from the report....
"Global growth is projected at 3.1 percent in 2024 and 3.2 percent in 2025, with the 2024 forecast 0.2 percentage point higher than that in the October 2023 World Economic Outlook (WEO) on account of greater-than-expected resilience in the United States and several large emerging market and developing economies, as well as fiscal support in China. The forecast for 2024–25 is, however, below the historical (2000–19) average of 3.8 percent, with elevated central bank policy rates to fight inflation, a withdrawal of fiscal support amid high debt weighing on economic activity, and low underlying productivity growth. Inflation is falling faster than expected in most regions, in the midst of unwinding supply-side issues and restrictive monetary policy. Global headline inflation is expected to fall to 5.8 percent in 2024 and to 4.4 percent in 2025, with the 2025 forecast revised down."
Interesting stats came out from the FBI on the rise of hate crimes in schools and colleges. Let me say that we must do a better job of protecting all of our fellow Americans right to practice religion (Muslim, Jew, Christian, Buddhist, etc.) of any race (Black, White, Asian, Hispanic, etc.). What I have found is that complacency, lack of reporting and even a level of corruption are part of the problem in successful holding to account hate initiators and actors.
There are still places in this country where hate crimes are unenforced and even in some cases legally rewarded and protected. In such places there is often a history of victims whose basic human rights are intentionally and systematically discounted with little recourse. They have no one to complain too and complaints are sometimes retaliated against. The amount of complaints by various peoples doesn't always prompt action.
The video says the hate crimes are likely unreported because people believe the perpetrators will not be held to account and they further fear retaliation. I will say this is a reasonable possibility and even more likely in places where hate crimes are intentionally unreported or not reported at all. Good old boy networks are some of the most dangerous places for minorities because they narrate lies to protect each other. i.e. the hate narrative.
We need to do a much better job of holding such people to account no matter their position, wealth, race, party, religion or other demographic difference. That won't happen until everyone gets a clear idea what this nation and its social contracts stand to support. There is only one path forward to national growth and hate is not in that picture other than as something we can collectively overcome and put in the past (Challenges bring opportunities.)
The state of our national development from a human rights perspective is going to look more universal in the future where hate behaviors are seen as grotesque and against the very fabric of Freedom of Religion, Speech and the Constitution. Some people give lip service to our shared oaths but then drop them the second they get in front of their social clans. Corruption ensures the victims of such crimes are left holding the consequences of others behaviors (That is called injustice).
Free passes fly in the face of logic as well as moral conscious. Trust is broken where major violations of rights have occurred without improvement. Improvement should always be the main goal no matter where we are at this time and place in history.
I have great empathy for the victims of hate and I know with crystal clear clarity that it occurs in our nation and we need it to stop! It is not who we are! Those who support it are in the wrong and their position doesn't change that. I encourage people to look out for each other in society and report such behaviors diligently and broadly if needed until perpetrators are held to account. We must re-socialize those who don't follow our laws or values to a greater ethical social expectations. We don't need bad actors dictating the sense of safety for the rest of us.
I'm very optimistic that the next diverse generation will bring forward a higher metric of fairness out of their value systems and also out of necessity to enhance future opportunities. I believe in that generation and I'm proud of those who improve the world around them. Report hate crimes.
"In CBO’s projections, federal budget deficits total $20 trillion over the 2025–2034 period and federal debt held by the public reaches 116 percent of GDP. Economic growth slows to 1.5 percent in 2024 and then continues at a moderate pace."
Keep in mind these are projections and much will depend on the economy and strategic choice making across the board that create alignment with the market. The numbers seem to be roughly in line with IMF projections. I would like to see if we can get higher than that?
The elite are those who preform, especially those who perform under difficult if not impossible circumstances. They are also the type of people who don't typically come from wealthy backgrounds but have the heart, patriotism, and courage to join a purpose greater than themselves. Those characteristics are what makes one elite. It is not wealth, money, or privilege that truly cuts the wheat from the chaff because value lies in the realm of character of soul. These young men and women joined as an act of volunteering for something they believe in and that is a major sign of greater character.
(In republics wealth should not be the defining characteristic of who gets what opportunities and who doesn't. It should be defined by their character, capacity and merit in performance.)
The military has struggled to attract young people, making exceptions for the Marines and Space Force which reached their recruitment goals. The Pew Center recently released information on the polling of how Americans view the military. For the most part it was positive with the exception of the young who may have a slightly different comingled understanding of the military at this time in history. It is not the military issue but perhaps more of a political one that skews this perception. Pew Military Trust Feb 24'
(There may be a long tail danger if we do not keep the next generation at the forefront of our choices and decisions. The other suggestion would be to encourage over the horizon thinking that reaches, aligns, and motivates. You have to read history to understand these generational changes. Also why I support historical significance and context to strategic thinking. History connects us all and is a worthwhile field of study. )
"Most Americans continue to express positive views of the military: 60% say it has a positive effect, while 36% say its effect is negative."
(One must make a distinction between the institution of the military and the political process that determines how they are used. I'm not sure the young fully grasp that distinction between the military and its application. One can debate a military's use through the political process but the institution itself is a few hundred years old. It has done a strong job at merit based performance that often functions by helping and protecting each other as well as society.)
Its just a quick thought but I think Purpose (meaning), Opportunity (personal development) and Connection (sense of belonging) could influence the motivators of young interest. There is support to suggest that when we understand a demographic (i.e. market demographic study) and understand the cultural underpinnings as based in the needs of that generation, one can design marketing messages that enhance appeal to attract certain skills and values.
Broadly, having a sense of purpose in life, an opportunity to commit to their own development, and feeling as part of a team can do wonders for human capital management. Considering the whole person can attract and retain high talent through trust in a long term commitment. Keep in mind that this generation have motivations/concerns beyond money and those delve into their communities and nation (in their own way). It is our job to turn those motivations into pathways that secures their (not our) future.
Below is an article on Gen Z that may be of interest. Let me say you can go into so much depth and build mammoth reports on psychographics, cultural attributes, predictive analysis, symbolism, etc. etc. and how that relate to certain matching attributes of an institution to ensure those message are attracting the most beneficial interest that leads to a successful new recruit. From a long tail perspective, learning how to attract the candidates that fit the best in those fields often leads to longer term retention thereby helping in two trajectories; the near and the long term. That can also strengthen skills retention and post veteran retirement contributions to important supporting positions. Anyways the article....How to understand and market to a Gen Z audience
With this generation and all the advances in technology and science you might just get Spartan strength with Athenian wisdom if you know how to attract them. Spartans don't fight for just glory but for the common good.
""Because the latter they put on for their own protection, but the shield for the common good of the whole line."-A Spartan
If you know me, you also know that I care deeply about treating people fairly and creating broad based opportunities for those who want to get ahead and get a fair shake in life (I know what hardship looks like and we are friends.). I was thinking about the impact of discrimination and disparity in society and how we can better use diversity and economic engagement to further the long term interest of the nation.
I have learned over a lifetime that people come with different skills and perceptions and if you draw those ideas and abilities out and down constructive paths there is a power in different kinds of people working towards the same ultimate goals.
It is no ones place to thwart full societal contribution. To me, justice is fundamental to an even playing field where one can rise or fall on their own merit. The laws must always work toward that social enlightenment and the creation of stronger communities.
Performance comes from enhancing skills and putting them in environments in which they can succeed. Provide people a sense of direction and some goals that need to be achieved and they can do wonders. That logic is not always shared by those who lack greater insight nor do they contribute to a strategically aligned environment (i.e. human capital and national development).
I thought this video on Socrates and justice was sort of interesting.
