11,000+ Year Old Wild Boar Discovered: Sophisticated for the Age

 An ancient boar was discovered in Turkey and is seen as one, if not the oldest, in history. This is an interesting find because the skill in which it was created was profound. It gives insight into the people of the age and what was important to them (i.e. animals, food, art, etc.). You can read about that in 11,000-Year-Old Painted Statue of Wild Boar Unearthed at Gobekli Tepe

To me it is also an indication that people have technology and abilities in each age of development. People are so sure that what happens today is the only story of life. Its a limited perspective issue where only this time is bounded in rationale. I like archeology because it encourages us to learn broadly and deeply about our histories as a species and people.

(As a side note: This is also why I'm against hate, racism, bigotry, limiting dogmas and the protection thereof because from a scientific perspective it limits personal and societal growth. Different societies have their golden age where creativity flourishes and tells unique stories. Art is central to our existence and is often one of the rare few things left after thousands of years. We were always meant to learn from each other and from our histories. Renaissance happen by integrating new knowledge from different backgrounds to create something new. Hard sell sometimes but still for the most part universally true.). 

It is hard to tell people that time is fluent and while we feel so sure of what we know today and the world around us that things change. What has not changed is the act of passing knowledge from one generation to the next. Looking back at history tells us where people were at that time. You may see some images of the Wild Boar HERE

IMF Report Shows U.S. Very Strong. A few unexplored opportunities.

The U.S. Economy is extremely strong and most of the projections were wrong over the past few years. Well, almost all of them were wrong as there was one that said the 23/24 timeframe post Covid would be strong. However, we do have some more uncertainty with the geo-political issues and their impact. Such geopolitical issues are harder to predict in terms of economic impact and outcomes because it depends on large scale industry and supply chain adaptations. However, according to the report things seem to look pretty bright for the U.S. in the near term. Resilient Global Economy Still Limping Along, With Growing Divergences

You may be interested in a summary analysis from Rueter's article IMF says global economy 'limping along', cuts growth forecast for China, euro zone

A Few Pieces from the Report:

-World economic growth will slow from 3.5 percent in 2022 to 3 percent this year and 2.9 percent next year.

-Headline inflation continues to decelerate, from 9.2 percent in 2022 on a year-over-year basis, to 5.9 percent 2023 and 4.8 percent in 2024.

-Most countries aren’t likely to return inflation to target until 2025.

-US projected unemployment 3.6 percent to 3.9 percent by 2025.

-Global output is $3.6 trillion which is less than pandemic projections.

-Total investment is down with less willingness to invest.

A Few Suggestions Not in the Report:

Maybe there is a way to bump up the mid and long term prospects as well. Maybe not? 

-Improve human capital, productivity, and creativity/innovation through education, training and technology. Best and brightest and less on who you know may appear wishful but has practical outcomes if mastered.

-Resolve labor-pay issues and focus on incentives for human capital growth, adaptability to new technologies, and contributory participation in industry/corporate/business success. Requires a paradigm shift from prior labor-management rationality.

-Draw investment so as to improve U.S. economic root industries. Relies on factors related from strong justice/legal systems that protect commerce/liberties and improve broad motivations all the way over to strong economic policies that encourage innovative industry development. A systems approach.

-Continue to develop digital era infrastructure that ranges from data highways to ports and everything in between. i.e. electric grid with localized sources that feed the larger system for resilience.

-Improve the ecological and economic benefit of our natural resources through pollution management/reversal improvement of environmental health. i.e. Great Lakes or ocean and protein/fish supply and biodiversity. Such ideas seem on the surface unconnected but is part of a larger perpetual sustainable system that can maintain itself and draw societal and economic value from the environment. 

-Improve innovation in green technologies and energy source development.

-Develop new ways to limit crime and instability through economic engagement and more pathways to productive societal engagement. Reduces the shadow market and improves engagement/growth opportunities through understanding universal human needs.

-Discovering methods of reducing debt while ensuring government programs are reviewed, efficient and effective. Should be done in process oriented manner over a period of time. Resources can be used in other areas to improve net positives.

-Create business connections and supply chains globally so as to draw the highest value to the U.S.

-Create a shared vision for the nation and solve problems bi/tri partisan way. Less rhetoric and more focus on the "we" of society.

-Probably much more but just a few thoughts to ponder. They are not perfect and I would guess very elementary and perhaps idealist in nature. Thumb in wind. Feel free to discard. Maybe you have a few of your own?

Why The Constitution, Ethics and Justice are Still Important in Society

Societies must always seek to reach the highest states they can so as to fulfill their intended purpose for the collective whole. That includes ensuring that institutions are functioning in a way in which they seek to create more unity between their actions and their lofty intended purposes. As they reach for those ideal states they begin to build trust on individual and collective levels. The more effective and functional they are, typically the more society supports the institutions and in turn the more effective they become. 

Sometimes there are places where the ideal state is rejected for one reason or another. When this happens we have hampered trust and reduced long term functionality. We can see that not in words but in the general group behaviors where corruption, as defined by intentional misalignment, rises and people begin to feel that there are places such systems are not always doing the right thing. It reduces a sense of security when the rules are unknown or not transparent. Its a natural psychological and sociological outcome.

Consider a study on Institutional Trust and Interpersonal Trust and its impact on things like nationalism, shadow markets, interpersonal relationships, so on and so forth. Other research has supported the idea that all business are based on trust and higher economic performance rests in part on our institutional functioning. Thus, there should be definite interest in supporting and enhancing democratic institutions when we see injustice creep in. We never want to see a backslide in democracy and that starts on a micro level.

I support systems that reach for the greatest benefit of society and in turn try and match their processes to their intended goals. That has always been the intended purpose of our nation and of democracy in general. Thus, I believe correction is made where obvious misapplication of justice has occurred because of faith in the general system. The wrong paths should never be taken and in the rare cases where this occurs there are sometimes opportunities to jump back to the right path if our eyes can see what our brain has difficulty registering. 

The first potential causes that comes to mind is the powerful influence of extremism (of any kind and ideology), hyper politics, and a misunderstanding of the next stage of democracy's development. The good news is that eventually we know the light of justice will eventually overtake its shadow because there are no other long term logical outcomes that lead to the highest states of a nation's development. The Constitution, Ethics and Justice still has an important purpose and role in society and in many ways all societies. 

Those who support doing the right thing are doing society a favor by protecting the value of such institutions; no matter their race, religion, wealth or position in society. Patriotism is thinking about the whole of society and its long term healthy functionality for its growing diverse population. As far as I know that would be a deeper belief of patriotism that moves beyond surface symbolism. It is something that can be sold because people recognize its universal truth. As a nation we must always strive for the next rung because it is the right thing to do. There are some that are holding us back. :(

7 Laws of Wisdom

I think in life we must always seek to become. In many ways we are always in a state of becoming. There are no hard or fast rules. People think there is one path to life but that breeds mediocrity. The unique is not wrong, it is just a different way that leads to different understandings and sometimes new solutions. Sometimes, not always. I think most can pull a few pieces of wisdom out of it. 

Is it Possible to Increase Wages, Decrease Inflation and Improve Corporate Profits at the Same Time?

One concept that has fascinated me lately is it possible to increase wages, decrease inflation and improve corporate profits at the same time? I'm not really sure if its possible but I believe that there are ways to do anything if you find a way to put the elements of an economy in the right order (We draw data in economics so those are in many ways measurable elements. They of course are based on more finite elements that make up those categories. At least that is the way I see them but I'm not fully indoctrinated into orthodox economic thinking. Generally, I sort of stink at following all the mathematical rules because there is always a problem of variance. Statistical significances is only significant and that means there are other things involved.)

The inflation, wage and profit question is not an easy one to answer because we have in many ways created arguments from our historical past that limit exploration of possibilities. They call it bounded rationality. Yet these are often false arguments when we delve into how systems function because of the complexity of the factors that influence outcomes. There are just many confounding variables that make such understandings difficult to define precisely. We can only create general causation but specificity in that causation is more difficult (I think such economic elements and their influence on each other will be easier to understand with big data.) 

An expansion of an industry comes with benefits to corporate profits, job increases and many times increased wages. That would be a total industry and system improvement that would likely be based in comparative value of American labor on the market (i.e. human capital in relative relation to world human capital supply). The market no longer defined by the physical era that existed during Adam Smiths, Keynes, or Schumpeter models. Thus new models are needed for the Digital Era.

In the past I have said I'm not pro or anti union (indifference in theory) because I'm more pro people and pro industry and the concept of unionization isn't really factored into that. Unions are the collective organization of individual needs but don't supplant those needs. They only formalize the voice of those needs to create financial or work place benefits for members. Of course we should want to improve the total industry and in turn the lives of those who work for those industries regardless of the labor structure. I'm in a union- Great! I'm not in a union- Great!

Consider how productivity and wages often rise together. Productivity and Wages. The same can be said for new technology and human capital. As labor develops and learns it is worth more and when new technology comes into play it is worth more still. That can lead to inflation, but its not the only factor, so there are uncharted factors out there. 

Imagine a scenario where investors are earning more money, CEO's earn high wages, and workers wages are rising quickly. One of the reasons why I felt that a base wage that quickly rises based on human capital development and system contribution/input could help improve the whole system. Many small parts created the system as a collection of transactions.

What do you think would make that happen? Maybe...

1.) A high market demand and need for American products. Marketing, value, innovative lead times, etc.

2.) Improved innovation in the industry that feeds new investments.

3.) Rising profits and lead to higher returns for investors and executives. 

4.) Labor development new skills (i.e. human capital) to meet those advanced manufacturing needs. 

5.) New technologies that improve productivity. 

6.) The incentives labor needs to learn new skills and that comes with improving wages.

7.) A sense of community where solutions from the bottom to the top are encouraged and that would change the nature of current union-management discussions. 

8.) Adjusting the structure of companies and labor contracts to include individual and collective contributions to innovation and broad based development through participation. 

When I have said that in the past people often feel that I'm pro company or pro worker. That isn't true because those are limiting categorization that make things easy to understand but might mask the underlining mechanics. I look at the total system and what would attract more in a perpetual and sustainable economic system that develops net positives. That included attracting the best labor and human capital to certain high value and high income industries.

The issue of inflation is a different but related animal. Improved productivity, innovation and human capital comes with increased wages that typically raise inflation. However, inflation is based on money supply but wages are not the only factor that raise and lower such money supply. In some ways, I think they would be some of the smaller factors depending on the assumption of the pool (We are much more global so what is the right pool for the metrics?). 

The question I have is whether allocating more money to debt as a total system (corporate and national) would that reduce inflation while still allow for wages to rise and profits to move higher? The money goes somewhere and typically that would be to pay off debt and invest back in high performing clusters/industries. Not really sure...but I'm going to think about it. I might be on the total wrong path but maybe. Consider Inflation and Debt.

If we all had the answer then we wouldn't have this problem so that means we are missing something in our thinking. We are just unsure of what that is. I don't know either. I just have question that as of yet is unanswered in my mind. Put on your thinking caps....maybe you have the answer.

Humans Were in America as Much as 21K to 23K Years Ago

In New Mexico some of the oldest prints in America indicate humans were around when prehistoric animals existed. Most of the times these groups migrated for food and resources. While we are more complex as a society we are often still very much the same way. The structures or our brains were developed during our beginning but we keep changing and adjusting as a species over time.

Human motivations are very much the same as they were in the past. We seek resources and in turn seek to find things that prolong our lives. 

Some are saying they couldn't have crossed the land bridge, some are saying they may have came by boats, and perhaps a few are saying they are indigenous. Humans Arriving in America. Considering that some of the oldest in the world are 233K Years Ago these prints would be seen as new comers.

Remember that science gives us data and we can draw theories but we can't say much precisely. 

Pray for Peace in the Middle East

As a world community we should hope and pray for peace. The innocent lives lost are sad and hope that someday lasting peace can be found.  Peace Negotiations in Civil Conflicts: A New Dataset