No Interest Rate Hike: Federal Chair Jerome Powell Discusses (I added economic dribble to it.)

 We are at a time in our economic path where we avoided a rate hike and that helps maintain stability. There is some softening of the labor market but not so much to be concerned about it yet. Also consumer prices are coming down some which is good. Energy up and housing not having steep increases (I rent a flat in KY for my kids so please tell my landlord.) Basically, it means that you are not going to get an increase in your credit card payment anytime soon and there should be more greasing of job movement. Thus far everything seems healthy with a descent GDP increase. 

For those of you who are not born rich and didn't go to the best schools you should be a little happy. Most Americans are living from paycheck to paycheck so the interest rate is important to them to make ends meet (The sad reality of modern life. 60% if Americans are living Pay check to Pay Check. Something isn't working right.). I think if we start raising wages through stronger market pressures that rewards education/training and new technologies that enhance that skill we might find some benefits. 

Trickle down, trickle up and trickle sideways. Here is an article on The Productivity–Pay Gap

Alas, for the vast majority of us it would be nice if we have increased new job opportunities and people were paid higher wages for taking on those new roles. Upswings in the economy should also come with upswings in people's pay. Yes in a capitalistic society people should be paid for the work they produce. If its too top heavy its unstable in the long run (Also why I like small business for innovation and wealth obtainment.) That has only mildly happened yet and I think there could be more done to improve wages but precisely how to do that is the question.

The biggest question is How? The only idea at this second that comes to mind is increasing productivity through technology, rewarding innovation, and allowing workers and companies to benefit alike from increased in human capital (The dirty word!). Do I really know anything? Not really, I'm about as clueless as everyone else on the topic. However, I would suspect that is where I might look for answers.  

BTW I think Dr. Powell is doing a good job. Tough in this hyper political landscape. Everyone is a pessimist. I'm a rational optimist. 

What Makes Us American? (The Thought Experiment)

 Before I settle this out for the day let me say this.... What makes us American is the establishment of freedoms and the laws that protect those freedoms. In our thought experiment we chased down those with extremist leanings that had misused their authority and our institutions to further extremist views against minorities and others they do not feel should live freely in our nation. In this experiment they also have sympathizers and supporters and used those networks to further harm their countrymen/women and allowed some to enrich at the expense of others. Failure to correct means the ship is on the wrong course and a decade or so down the road we will come to understand that better without change.

The practical conclusion of the thought experiment: 

When people misuse their role and positions to harm our fellow Americans it is us as a community, as a nation and as a people to stand up and say "No". There are long term implications if we don't there are also those who do not believe in freedom like most of their fellow Americans. For those who violate our sacred oaths we should devise better mechanisms to hold such individuals to account. At a minimum we must correct that deficiency to ensure the highest moral conscious are protected from those who fail to guard their minds. Those that support extremism and/or misuse of authority for fascist type gains should be removed. 

Never violate our Freedom of Religion or Freedom of Speech. Some of us stay faithful and some of us sell out! Who are you?

The good news is...we learned a lot from this thought experiment and can put that to good use. Thanks for participating. 😬😲🤷💕💨

What is Freedom? A global perspect of universal values

I came across this video and I will say it sort of brought a little mist to my eyes. I think of the great things our forefathers/mothers brought forward and how in every place in the world people seek to create a sense of freedom. Each person defines that differently. Sometimes it is in our perspective of the world (inner freedom experience) and other times it is codified in our laws (outward artifacts of collective inner experience). Either way it is a universal value and in the U.S. we strive for that! 

For those in the world who must pick inner or outer freedom as the best path forward just remember that societies around the world are changing and growing and moving toward something greater. My advice is support freedom of the human spirit and the greater good of humanity. Its not religious, its spiritual!

Philosophy as a Guide to Life

 Philosophy has always been a guide to life. It has also been part of my life as far back as I remember. I'm not sure there was ever a time it wasn't in one form or another. Its not always the high end philosophies that we find from just ancient Greece (or others) but perhaps the philosophy of life itself, our purpose in this world, and how we can do good things. Not everyone understand the value of philosophy nor do they understand the basics of many things. Those that gain that sense of understanding did so through the path that most others have not followed, nor do they have the resilience to learn on their own. While philosophy isn't much rewarded in modern society, it is nevertheless what modern society was built upon. It has impacted everything around us include those things we hold sacred in society.

Forecasting of Market: 65% of CNBC Indicate Systemic Risk - Interest Rate Hike? No?

Tomb of Old Kingdom
Ancient Economic Thought
Economies are based on thought
and behaviors.

Forecasting the market can help companies make decisions. What you will find from the forecast composite in the video is that people are not really sure. You have 40% numbers and you have other things going on that would indicate variability. That uncertainty has real impact on the market and isn't necessarily a bad thing if caution leads to strategic choices to invest in upswing industries that might include industries dealing with examples such as ship building, core technologies, nano tech, batteries, human capital, etc. or something else that might lead to greater return rates (You have to do your homework to figure out what those are. These are just examples for illustrative purposes.). 

When we are accurate with forecasting we often find that we can make better choices and invest in upswinging markets. Knowing how strong those markets might be depends on the ability to take various forms of data and then make inferences based on prior economic research. Many times these are done by hard calculations but I might do them by anchoring to human adaptability and behaviors that leads to collective choice. Yes, economics is about human behavior. 🤔 

For example, I had hoped we would finish out this year strong and then move into a more stable homeostasis based on some underling changes in the market.  Things like ease of transference all the way over to normal organizational pattern disruption during Covid are part of that thought. Am I right? No idea...don't care...hope so....because its good for the economy. If I'm wrong does that make me a poor forecaster. Nope...forecasters are often wrong about a lot of things! Me too! 😲 

Covid was novel and the quick influx of digital GDP may make some forecasting more difficult until there is a body of research developed that better allows for model generation and accuracy of those forecasts. Likely why the Fed is sometimes not completely sure of what to do in all situations. Its just not easy and there are risks to every forecast when broad policies have big impact. There was an article on Wall Street Mojo Economic Forecasting 

You may not want to miss this tomorrow......

LIVE: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks on interest rate decision — 9/20/23

Biden Discusses Support for Ukraine at UN

 The video is a short clip of President Bidens speech at the UN. Democracy is important and so is boarder integrity. Russia is in this for the long haul and the UN will also need a similar commitment. That also means in some ways we need to develop our supply chain to ensure we can maintain munitions and other vital resources. Its a good opportunity to think about our supply chains and long term capacity.  You can watch Live

The Marine Corps Teaches Integrity

Integrity is a big word. Its what and who we are when we have no one supporting us and when no one is looking. Integrity is defined not by what people say but what they do in difficult situations. One could be a street sweeper and one could be leading a nation. It makes no difference. Integrity is fundamental to character building. 

While one doesn't necessarily have to be in the military to have integrity it is certainly a good grounds for gaining that skill. For those who served, they understand the concept of integrity. It is one of the reasons why I believe our young should consider serving as a path to their development but also the ability to develop the character they need throughout their lives.