Sunday, August 20, 2023

US GDP Grew Faster than China: Will it be a long-term shift?

Mechanical Sketch
As a representation of the
One might think of the Internet
as creating new economic
There has been some positive news on the economic front as US GDP growth is poised to overcome China's and do so for some time in the near future (There also has been discussion on a long term weakening of Chinas Economy.) The reasons haven't been ferreted out yet in a concrete scientific manner, but I'm sure most researchers will be looking at the notes to analyze why. The reasons and explanations may be many but I provide a few thoughts below.

This could mean there is a switch in the basics structure of the economy as well as a change in some of the economic fundamentals. For example, the leap into the digital economy along with international conflict and emerging challenges may have changed some assumptions and in turn economic focus. Beliefs and focus have real outcomes.

Keep in mind the economics is the measurement of choice in quantifiable monetary units. The science is at its root based in how we perceive opportunities and most advantageous choices to reach certain goals. We make an individual choice that leads to collective choices that have an influence on resources from a macro perspective. 

(Different people have different goals but we also have collective goals). 

To fully understand economics one can rely heavily on numbers and calculations but move beyond that into the 'winds of change' often described as animal spirits of collective behaviors. In this case, it appears there could be broad based fundamental shifts of focus that impact our economic choices and outcomes. This is why short decisions sometimes have an impact on long term outcomes. 

Column: The ultimate 2023 consensus-buster - US grows faster than China? Bullet points I took from this article.

-0.8% in the second quarter.

-U.S. economy expanded 1.2%.

-Barclays moved their third and fourth quarter China GDP growth forecasts from 4.9% and 2.8%. They also lowered their China's GDP call to 4.5% from 4.9%. 

On the positive side for the U.S.......

Latest estimate: 5.8 percent -- August 16, 2023 GDP Now Federal Reserve

"The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2023 is 5.8 percent on August 16, up from 5.0 percent on August 15. After this morning's housing starts report from the US Census Bureau and industrial production report from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, the nowcasts of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 4.4 percent and 8.8 percent, respectively, to 4.8 percent and 11.4 percent." (Atlanta Federal Reserve).

Other Reading:

National Infrastructure-New Voice Old Wisdom

Influence of Digital US GDP

Forecasting on Fringe BOAGDP Contracts 1st Q of 2020-Is It a Short Lived Shock and Digital GDP Recovery?

US Growing and China is Slowing

Digital Transformation





*These writings have a learning purpose. Alternative explanatory options. Feel free to discard. 

Saturday, August 19, 2023

Economy: The Economics of Public Investment Crowding in Private Investment (August 16th, 2023)

It is helpful to keep up on the public news and announcements to understand the investment environment. Right now the U.S. is trying to attract manufacturing investments and improve on its infrastructure to spur greater national innovation/commerce. After Covid and international crisis (i.e. supply chain), attracting investors appears to be increasingly more likely as they seek safer long term investment locations. 

There will likely be other plans coming out by different parties, politicians and leaders to review and ponder. It is helpful to read this one because it has lots of charts and graphs that I think are helpful in digging into key areas of understanding as to how economic theory functions in a real life government situation. 

This is not advocacy for or against a particular plan. Reviewing plans through the lens of understanding and not a particular political or economic bias can help in making longer term decisions. Current and future executives should be critical thinkers and use multiple knowledge sources.

Keeping up with economic policy is part of understanding the investment and external environment.

The Economics of Public Investment Crowding in Private Investment

Once you read this announcement ask yourself a couple of questions. 

1.) How does inflation impact investment choices and decisions?

2.) What type of environments do international investors seek?

3.) How might the availability of certain skills and other human capital issues be important in attracting and retaining talent?

4.) How does new technology and infrastructure relate?

When You Know Its Wrong, Short and Long Term Change (Ethical Development)

Have you ever wondered why some people have more moral sentiments when compared to others? We are not talking about the "better than thou" condemnation we sometimes experience, but the deeper more central violations of human conscious. To me I believe this issues are one's of awareness of the long term implications of poor decision making. 

For example, let us say we have opportunities to update a system to ensure it functions at its highest state. We fail to do that because of political or personal reasons and/or general unwillingness to update when updating would better fulfill the mission. The lower order may in the short run supersede the long term needs.

Some may not have a problem with it and some may find it highly inappropriate to not adjust toward the mission due to reasons not professed. This is often based in the awareness of how or why such systems may move away from their central purpose and the eventual issues of systemically allowing a lower functioning system to persist. 

I have always been a little confused why what is morally unacceptable to some could be more than acceptable and even encouraged by others. While searching up moral sentiments and human development I came across an article that discusses gifted development and societal development. "'The Moral Sensitivity of Gifted Children and the Evolution of Society'

Friday, August 18, 2023

Glasnevin Cemetary Picture-The Wooden Pathway Gallery

A picture you might like. Glasnevin Cemetary is old and a destination that humbles you. The stories, generations, and lives that passed. It makes us think about life and society and how we have responsibilities over making the best societies we can. When we see these artifacts of history we can solemn appreciation for other people and cultures. Appreciation for their stories and way of life.

Glasnevin Cemetary in The Wooden Pathway Gallery


Delta County Commissioners Meeting (August 15th, 2023): Business Continues, Electric, and Cornhole

The Effectives of Good Government
In the Countryside

1338
Ambrogio Lorenzetti
This was an interesting meeting, maybe not as interesting as the others but still definitely worth viewing in general.  Discussions on contracts, utilities, concerns, and general county administrative management. There is a lot going on. Some of it is really great stuff, some of it a little less than great. 

That is the nature of governances. People disagree and then they find solutions to those disagreements. No matter what, normal business should go on. In this case, it looks like its beginning to resume.

What I find interesting is that business did get done and people seem to be working a little closer together in this meeting. Yes, there are concerns and there are unaddressed issues but the board has started conducting its state of affairs again. That is a good thing. 

I found two articles I think that might apply to most governmental bodies. Its not specific to here. Its just some stuff I found on good governance and its importance. Since we are sort of watching government in action, we should recognize opportunities for the county to capitalize on the market changes. Can they do it? Some good signs that they are outpacing comparable communities in the U.P. 

1. Government Effectiveness Indicator. They talk about countries but you can pick a few ideas out of there. 

2. Transforming Government in a New Era: What I like about this article is that it provides some "C's" and discusses shared visions. I think that applies here as well as most places. 

-Electric issue with where the disconnects are. I think it make sense to have everything located in the same spot for the fire departments. If firefighters are not sure if the power is off, which is something they disconnect right away, they could be cutting through walls and unwittingly into electric lines. 

-Discussion on easements and use of property. A few residents seem to have an issue with the easements.

-Concerns of not allowing to comment and lack of response via email.

-Cornhole! (I didn't know this but its a serious game.)

Agenda Items

August 15th, 2023 Delta county Agenda & Meeting Minutes. You may check out the other agendas and meetings HERE. There is also the YouTube channel HERE

A. UNFINISHED BUSINESS 

1. Contract for County Administrator/Controller 

2. Approval for Administration to Request Opinions by Counsel 

3. Airport Manager Salary Package

NEW BUSINESS 

1. Payment of Bills 

2. RFP for PTP Electric and Water 

3. Amendment to Easement- Cornell 

4. Resolution-Approve Magistrate Appointment of Samantha Henderson 

5. Credit Card Request for District Court- Steve Parks to Samantha Henderson 

6. S. Henderson Transfer- Request for Lump Sum Payout and to Fill Deputy Criminal Clerk Position 

7. Resignation of P. LaCosse, Request for Lump Sum Payout and to Fill Deputy Accounting Clerk Position 

8. Resolution- Addressing Ordinance/Policy 

9. Out of County Travel- UPACC 

10. Out of County Travel- MAC 

11. Have/Cancel the October 3rd Meeting 

12. Airport- Prein & Newhof Contract Book, Rehabilitate Airfield Pavements Crack Sealing and Remarking 

13. Rules of Procedure 

14. Parks Maintenance – Full Time 

17. Relocation of Utilities – Control Contract 

19. Relocation of Utilities – Disconnect 

Thursday, August 17, 2023

Why the Free Pass Clan System Will Either Grow or Decline In the Next 5 Years?

There are always costs placating hate both in the present and in the future. Hate is a powerful negative emotion that encourages mental aggression and the manifestation of that aggression into and onto society (The brain goes into flight and fight from improper coding of symbolism and in turn become heightened in aggression. Even more so when supported politically and/or socially through a diminished sense of responsibility. Usually the higher the amount of hate is associated with certain personality traits and disorders. i.e. scapegoating). When collectively we find hate to be an appropriate pathway to achieve certain political, racial, or religious/ideological goals against people we don't like (typically these are the minorities and easy targets with less inherent protections as built into the perceptions of a number of officials.) our nation will misstep (Do that on a large scale and we may never truly recover.) When a higher percentage of Americans feel political violence is ok, we are likely going to run into two large emerging trends that will compete for influence (Reuters Article Political Violence). 

(This is one of the reasons why I encourage our political leadership to think bi-partisan and think about shared American identities. We can't function well limping in human capital and we can't function well when people are trying to divide our communities. Being bi-partisan and thinking critically about all the arguments is not well received in our political environment. That could be a leadership issue in general where the small pictures overshadow the larger national purpose. As with most things, good and bad all mixed together. Some helpful, some destructive and lots of followers. I vote for people who bring us together and have a vision mixed with a reasonable action plan. )

This story and other similar writings are fictitious rhetorical thought experiment dribble designed to help us think of hate and its dangers on a local and on a national scale. To me, anytime we can take a large group of people and tie them into a shared identity with shared goals of an organization, we will likely flourish. If we do the opposite, encourage differences, and then support those differences in our local institutions (include clubs and clans) we have a issue that will limit our full potential as a people and a nation (Dividing our skills, resources and opportunities.).

Every nation that grew together and found a shared sense of purpose were more likely to succeed (beat the global market) when compared to those who are trying to separate people. Its a natural mechanic of resources and efforts being focused in the right places. If you don't have purpose, you don't have much of a plan and can't draw people into a solution through shared ultraistic collective gain (Think of that from a political perspective. You need a good purpose to have a good plan. One must come before the other. Yale has an article on people voting more party than vision. As a risk only 3.5% would vote against their partisan politics to support democracy. Study: Americans prize party loyalty over democratic principles). 

Our leaders and institutions should be encouraging togetherness and fair treatment across the board to maximize engagement and in turn American values and support our economy. When they don't do that, they run into issues not only of trust but also essential purpose of some institutions(Likely while were seeing some level of backlash. That discontent could grow if we don't find a way through the divide American/"American".). For example, allowing clan based third world justice to supersede first world democratic principles isn't likely going to be a good route forward.

Let me give you a hypothetical example that might help highlight the issue. Don't get upset at the topic. No matter which way you lean, there should be some wisdom here. If someone who worked for the police department wanted to enrichment themselves they could easily use rumors and hate narratives to prepare the stage for that self gain (That also includes manipulation of the sick and elderly for money. 2X). This could be even more true if friends are part of a closed cultic circle and don't receive adequate information about others from outside their group (i.e. too much dominance from a couple of personalities. General language that encourages belittling others and raising false image of self/group. )

Imaging if personal loyalties superseded every other consideration (including the law, Constitution, or Bill of Rights) and people acted on those rumors in a long term targeting campaign against the minority family that include following home, pulling over kids, picking fights, making false police complaints, spreading hate narratives and general trying to cleans their town of anyone different (...and not within their social hierarchy.). This would create an unfair and unsafe environment where social contracts are not followed and rules are subjective by nature.

Imaging if we gave any supporter and actor of hate a free pass, not based on the merit of their behaviors, but because we have extremist type leanings mixed with our social clan networks within a number of local institutions. As the family tries to shield themselves from group hate and associated corruption, they become ever more responsible for the perpetrators behaviors even if the justifications are not accurate and unknown in general (Mostly their feelings. They have rights to say "no" to this group.). Now image if the perpetrators behaviors were learned from prior bad behaviors and enrichment using intentional hate narratives but given a free pass to continue on into the future making more victims. Smart? 

Would this be moral? Would such behaviors increase? Should we consider something like this unfair in society? Are there differences between how laws are used/misused and the potential essential truths of the situation (i.e. misalignment in concepts of justice)? Imagine if we do that in a lot of places and we have no mechanisms of self-correction. Without thoughtfulness by our politicians and discouraging third world type of behaviors we will likely see extremism grow in our communities and impact our institutions in a negative way (Seen more as tools when compared to being seen as having an important function in society. i.e. protect and serve others before self.). 

Supporting our institutions, good police officers and the essential purpose does require talking about how to fix problems. Not political surface rhetoric designed to enflame a crowd, but thoughtful and well meaning discussions on solutions. When it comes to life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness the are no exclusionary relations, races or social clans. How do you sell an environmentally and strategically aligned America to our fellow Americans? How do we sell it to our politicians? Parties? The next 5 years will determine where we successfully as a nation passed this test and/or begin the chaos of decline (Moving up to the next stage of democratic development. Some have called it a Universal Democracy as a natural growth from a long line of democratic development dating back to ancient Greece.)

(It appears that the clan system is overshadowing the official democratic system in some places and there is little to no way to correct until our leadership decides our country is worth the hassle of thinking beyond themselves and their small faction of followers. In such places one can commit crimes, in some ways encouraged, as they see fit as long as its social crimes against those of the wrong religion, politics, skill color and the many other unamerican and undemocratic justifications for hate. No backstops in these locations. We should see similar cleansing crimes grow over the next five years in our nation when the wrong expectations are set and socially supported among certain cultic circles and tainted local institutions. Might makes right in the short run but also crumbles in the long run. Where local institutions were touched by corruption, they need to change for the health of the whole system and its long term viability. Wouldn't it be nice if they cared about all of us?).

(Just in case you are wondering where my political values lay. I swore an oath to our Constitutional and our liberties. I'm a light Right with lots of liberal friends. A RINO-DINO of sorts but conservative in outlook and general perspective. More conservative in values but less on surface for show. i.e. protecting Freedom of Speech and Freedom of Religion is incumbent on every conservative and liberal alike.)


Wednesday, August 16, 2023

US Economists Believe No Recession Possible (08/17/2023)

 Economists believe there won't be a recession. Over the past year there has been a discussion on whether we were going to have a recession or we are going to slide through it (Some even argue growth) Most economists were predicting that we would have a recession while a few maybe had different ideas. When we are predicting out past 6 months it can be difficult. 

 I have a transactional clusters theory I have been working on that so far as been somewhat accurate in its prediction that 23'/24' would be a positive transition (I don't really care if its accurate or not. Its just something to do. Maybe next time I'm wrong. Positive growth is generally positive. ). We are likely going to find a new economic homeostasis at some point in terms of interest rates, growth rates, etc. that will be at a different level then what might be our current economic benchmarks. 

(Maybe we can find that innovative advanced manufacturing shifts in the U.S. lead to higher growth rates mimicking the growth rates of emerging nations. Its an innovation adaptation issue. Emerging nations have high growth rates because they are in the process of updating and finding capacities that return capital. i.e. net positives. Advanced nations can likely do this with innovative cluster environments that create butterfly wider adaptations with new products/inventions to the rest of the system. )

One of the reasons why economists had a difficult time is because they are working with new assumptions in the post covid world where much more of society abruptly went online and played havoc on our economic projections. One has to go back to the basic economic assumptions inherent in traditional economic theory and compare that with the growth in non physical transactions and products that may have different root assumptions. i.e. the need for new theories and/or updated theories in Post Covid world. 

Anway, its a very good article. 

Fed, economists make course correction on US recession predictions