Utility Theory and Probability in Personal and Business Decision Making (Just Figure it Out)

Pythagoras and the Fisherman
1662
Salvator Rosa
A representation of how mathematics
and the art of decision making 
work together. 

Whether you are in business or life you will have certain goals and desires that you seek to achieve (Its normal, we all have them. Even business was started because of people's goals an desires.). We all have goals and that is part of life. Organizations also have goals and that is part of the process of making money from the resources they convert to a higher value. No matter if you are an individual or an organization you will have goals. Ranking and assigning probability to these goals leads to overall stronger long term strategic decision-making. 

Utility Theory helps us understand how people rank their prospects and then act on those prospects. That could be buy a new car or that could be to improve revenue of your company by 2%. Because the environment has many possibilities where one's individual and business goals factor into decision making, we must consider not only the rank of such goals but also their probabilities. 

In any situation, business or personal, you should consider the most important goals that an individual/organization seeks to accomplish and then rank them by importance. By doing so, one might also consider including the probabilities based on the data drawn from the market/environment/study to understand those prospects better. (Good data can keep filling in the blanks and in turn defining the probabilities while bad data derails you. You can get good at determining/differentiating between good and bad data.) 

As one gains new data, knowledge, and insight, they will be able to adjust and define their/organizational goals as well as understand the probability of achieving each possible goal. When we can break down that analysis into actual probability trees for decision making, we can better understand these prospects and the strategic paths in which they lead (With luck we can see the data find new branches of knowledge. You just have to know what to look for. Typically that is the blank spots or the data doesn't fit into existing theoretical structures. ) 

While we may use many different analysis and ways to achieve our goals, we are always stuck with deciding which goals are most important for personal/business achievement. Whether your are an individual or a business you can look at your internal and external resources and match that with the your purpose to achieve greater organizational outcomes. Often that requires a conscious rank order of goals and selecting the most probable of those choices to achieve certain objectives. (i.e missions statements have purpose in aligning people to goals and the probability that people will find direction in a way that influences their micro choices leading to organizational-economic change.)

(If you managing an organization of any type think of how things like a national constitution, business mission statement, or stated strategic goals/initiatives can give people a sense of direction for their own decision making. When people buy into a vision and have clear principles to work off of, they will naturally seek to align themselves if they find personal benefit. Probabilities change not only on the external but also the internal environment. The environment changes because of people and people change because of the environment and thus one has to consider that "human factor" into their decision making to fully assess both probabilistic lines. i.e. science allows for this innovation line but one must wonder whether the market will accept and buy that product. Knowing the two will determine an investment decision in research/product development that leads to the highest probably outcome. )

(I utilize this concept in my economic cluster theory because people must be able to see the prospects of goal achievement within the cluster goals themselves. They may also determine how best they can advance their collective and individual goals within and outside the cluster.). 

Utility Definitions:

Utility in Economics Explained: Types and Measurement

Utility Theory

3.1 Utility Theory

I like this study. Boundedly rational expected utility theory

Are the Aliens Here?: Meep Meep! House Oversight Committee

The Great Bear,
in Book of Fixed Stars c. 964.
Abd al-Rahman al-Sufi 

There is some indication that we have UAP or potential alien life. Well, my thoughts are that I have heard weirder things (No seriously. 😕). First, most of the reporting's were not of UAP significance while some were of more importance (The unknown importance kind.). Of those that were, many did not have a full explanation. So we are left with further research as an avenue to greater understanding. 

If they are new types of drones and propulsion systems we should learn from them/it and develop our own. I thought my idea on molecular surface propulsion through high powered solar panels would allow for start and stop with no sound or vapor trail. (Just kidding. I mean it probably would have some line of development down the molecular level. That would make the propulsion system planet specific as new atmospheres have different molecular substructures.😕😂) 

ok...sorry...I will stop. 😂 Ok back to very important UFO super scientific research documentaries.

 Anatomical Man,
from Très Riches Heures du Duc de Berry,
c. 1411–1416
Limbourg Brothers

Not to make light of the research because its a way of learning about our environment. Understanding new phenomenon is very important for military, civilian, and other purposes. If we don't know what it is, then we can learn from it. If someone built something in their basement we can reward them and put it to good use. Either way its an unknown risk and/or benefit at the moment.

You can read this article by CNN. 'Officials and lawmakers push for more government transparency on UFOs'

 

Garden Box: No Fertilizer, Irrigation, and Little Weeding (World Bank Food Insecurity)

Experimenting with growing some of my own food I made a garden box, used some old fencing I'm replacing, and a net to protect it from critters. I'm not a big gardener and I'm not always around so I don't want anything high maintenance. 

In this case, I did not weed or water at all. I only put fresh dirt and buried a number of seeds. No fertilize or compost added. I found a few rag weed and Devil's beggar tick but they were easy to remove.

 Amazingly almost everything is growing healthy except a few plants that got crowded out by other plants. A better planting design would help. The overall process worked well. 

The key things I think that made a difference is partial shade and sunlight so its not getting beat on all day in the global warming sun. Secondly, the dirt was fresh, and thirdly it rained a lot. 

If you were wondering why it can be helpful to grow a little more of your food you can read World Bank July 17th, 2023 Food Security Update. They discuss rising food costs. Maybe farms could consider replanting into paddocks bordered with trees to create partial shade, protect the soil, reduce the need for watering and maybe less/no fertilizer (Thinking out loud. One must check the science of it to see if it makes sense.)

The next goal is to put in a small apple orchard of 4 apple trees and 2 cherry trees (helping the bees). I removed a large dying tree so now I have space.

Recall Efforts in Delta County MI. Different Judge to Hear Case

For those who have been watching the local meetings you will find that there is significant amount of commotion around the firing of a prior county commissioner. I suspect there is more to that story but that remains to be seen. The rumor mill is abuzz! (My general advice is to avoid rumors unless you have some factual anchors. Even then, it is best to generally not repeat them unless it is a matter of serious importance to resolve an issue.)

Read the article below and you will get a sense of the changes in the county and the sort of legal maneuvering that is occurring. Some residents want a recall and of course there may be some that don't (i.e. supporters) The three commissioners named appear to not want it as well so the courts will be involved. Either way, there is a threshold that has to be met before anything serious gets into play. 

You can read....

New judge to hear county recall appeal

I'm neutral on these issues for the most part. It is a general process that we go through when there are questions and/or people may feel they want different representation. What is more or less interesting, is how quickly this is sort of changing the local landscape and highlighting community expectations. Only time will tell what happens. That is not for or against anyone or anything. If I have a well formed opinion, I will state it. My only opinion at the moment is that solving problems is a good thing.

Turn the page....

Global Warming Blamed for Increases in Heat: U.S. Can lead the renewable market.

Global Warming is blamed for the ongoing rash of heat waves experience across the globe. The science is coming out increasingly more clear that we need to live cleaner. The move to more renewable energies is helpful. Phasing out fossil fuels in a way that continues to reduce pollution consistently to stay allow the planet to recuperate is helpful. 

The world is starting to look for solutions. I think new U.S. renewable manufacturing may be able to help. This is why we need to stay on top of the emerging technology fields. Just like medical, the renewable clean energy is going to have a big market and is going to help improve the environment. Win-win.

U.S., European heat waves 'virtually impossible' without climate change, study finds

You may also find that the second largest source of energy in the U.S. is from renewable energy sources according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Trying the Non-Gym Integrated Work Out

Today I lapped swam a lake for 
about 20-25 minutes. 
Beyond loving the water,
I also found a treasure of 3 golf balls.
Someone was hitting from the shore.

Some of you know that I have a fitness trainers license and have a past playing a few sports. Personally, I liked mostly individual sports that I compete directly with others. I like team sports but prefer knowing that my failures and success are directly related to my performance. 

Like many of you, the gym has been a great motivator for me because I can interact with others. If you really get into it, you will find a whole community of super fits that live their lives around the gym. I want to try something a little different even though there have been times when they let me tag along. 😐

Like many digital nomads I live online, work online, shop online, date online, etc. We have need to get out of the house but we have lots of reason to be mobile within our homes as well. Thus, integrating workouts throughout the day is good for one's health and for their overall performance. 

 

To experiment with this idea I am putting all of my gym memberships on hold. I'm not getting rid of them because there is a good possibility I will return. However, what happens after a month of integrating workouts throughout the day?

You can read more about that here. Why Mini Workouts May Be More Effective Than Hours at the Gym

Integrating means working out regularly throughout the day using various activities. Weights, Pilates, yoga, HITT cardio, walking, biking, etc... We are not working out, we are moving and using resistance throughout the day. 

My current workout routine for the month includes shorter bursts of....

1. Cardio: Lake and ocean swimming, biking, walking, hiking, skiing, snowshoeing, dance, self-defense, etc. 

2. Muscle: Weights, bands, Pilates, body weight activities, climbing, natural work, etc.

3. Flexibility: Yoga, kickboxing, dance, etc.

In the end I want to see if it is possible to get in or better shape when compared to going to the gym if one works out regularly. I will let you know. 

The Benefits of Applied Psychology and Research to Business (R&D)

Source: National Science Board
U.S. and China spend most on R&D.
U.S. could focus within industry clusters
to maximize government-industry-university
research.
Matching that with the right entrepreneurial 
and recreational environment can 
lead to intellectual capital draw and retention.

Applied psychology and business research impacts just about everything in the business world ranging from employee selection all the way over to marketing. One of the ways in which academics and business gurus can stay competitive is to keep up with the current literature. That literature should be freely published and encouraged so as to maximize its benefits for business use. That becomes especially important for businesses, industries and even nations that want to be innovative. 

It is helpful to look at journals in emerging science and technology. Applied psychology is a growing and emerging field that seeks to understand many different facets of life. In this case, we are thinking more about business. Applied Psychology Journal Ranking. This website provides a list of various journals, of which the leading journals are listed more towards the top.

If you browse around you can often access the prior publication and many of the articles for free. There are scientists concerned about publication and academic freedoms. Just like we should think about research from its practical application we should also ensure the environment welcomes and doesn't stifle research (i.e. making research subject to the political process and/or stifling research through direct or indirect methods.). 

In my economic cluster theory (Delta County Model) I have been working on there will be a need for focused research and a need for general new discovery research. Advancing clusters can attract R&D investments around key cluster-industry needs through the use of direct commissions, grants, equipment, etc. One could be implementing new research from universities and/or be building prototypes Research and Development: U.S. Trends and International Comparisons.

Here is a solid article on research freedom.

From Traditional Research to Responsible Research: The Necessity of Scientific Freedom and Scientific Responsibility for Better Societies

Abstract:

"My research journey spans a period of exciting new theories informing innovative practices in businesses and other organizations and a period littered with concerns about the research-practice gap, questionable research practices, and a strong emphasis on the number of publications in top journals for hiring and promotions. These recent developments led to the dilution of both scientific freedom and scientific responsibility in our scientific work. I offer my research journey to illustrate the importance of both, with the most recent endeavor in a global responsible research movement to produce useful and credible knowledge that will enable business and management practices to serve all stakeholders and to solve the world's most challenging problems. Emerging institutional changes in business schools, journals, associations, and accreditation agencies provide hope that scholars will soon find the conditions favorable for both freedom and responsibility to support their aspiration to pursue research that will contribute to better societies and meaningful careers."

Conclusion:

"The mission of university-based business schools is to create knowledge to improve business practices that will bring benefits to multiple stakeholders, including shareholders. We emphasize multiple stakeholders because the business ecosystem consists of not only those who provide the funds (owners or shareholders) but also those who provide their expertise and labor (workers), those who purchase their products or services (customers), those who supply raw materials or parts (suppliers), and all those (citizens) whose life may be affected by the business indirectly, e.g., the quality of water, air, and soil, byproducts of the production activities of business firms. As social scientists, our goal is not only to solve the mystery of our social and natural world but also, more importantly, to produce knowledge or evidence-based solutions to business problems with the ultimate aim of improving the human condition. Yet, in the past three decades business school research seems to have been derailed by two choices. One is giving stronger preference to economic than to social outcomes. This preference is revealed in the predominance of scientific inquiries examining and promoting economic outcomes that benefit shareholders more than outcomes that are important to stakeholders like customers, employees, suppliers, and people in the society supporting the business. The second is the pursuit of publications by all means and at all costs, even if it means compromising the objectivity and truth-seeking purpose of science. Fortunately, self-correction has started. I think we can be cautiously optimistic about a bright future in management research."

Tsui, A. (2022) From Traditional Research to Responsible Research: The Necessity of Scientific Freedom and Scientific Responsibility for Better Societies Annual Review of Organizational Psychology and Organizational Behavior 2022 9:1, 1-32