Friday, July 21, 2023

Escanaba Beaches and Sunshine: Vacation, Fish, and Fresh Water Frolic

Today was a nice day in Escanaba. A little above the average around 78 degrees. Normally its in the low 70's. Just in case you wanted to see. The tourists are coming which is very nice. The beaches are also nice (Esky could consider grooming theirs in the future as well as a regular food truck would be nice.) You can see the tourism ships come in. 

I didn't catch any fish but whatever...I tried! (I have to use fake bate because live bait dies between fishing.)

Trip Advisor Things to do in Escanaba













Detroit Power Outages: More Resilient Electric Grid Needed

Nature and Energy 
can Co-exist
As our society moves into the digital era it should create redundancies and work arounds for rolling blackouts and electric grid security. If power goes out in one neighborhood, power can be diverted directly from batteries and solar, allowing time with the least amount power downtime as possible (if any at all), to fix the wider system. The goal is to maintain power from multiple sources. 

As we think about renewable energy, also think of how solar on buildings, local solar farms, and other power generators can be used as back up to the larger system. When all is running well they are feeding everyone, when a black out or downed wire cuts power, the local source kicks in much like a generator. 

To do this well would require much stronger and efficient batteries with stronger solar use of buildings and other unused surfaces. The same can be said for the redundancy of our spaghetti wire electric infrastructure. Battery cells either within buildings or located in various geographic areas of a city might be helpful.

DTE power outages: The company's electricity restoration process

Thursday, July 20, 2023

Conference Board Leading Indicators Indicate Possible Recession (Maybe)

The Bread Line
Reginald Marsh 1932
It wasn't organic and gluten free back then.

The leading economic indicators are down 0.7% and hints that we could risk a recession. This is a very nice article that discusses indicators in greater depth. Lots of charts and graphs. CB Leading Economic Index Declines Further as Looming Recession Signal Continues

You can also go on the Conference Board's webpage.  and read the Conference Board's Leading Indicators July 20th, 2023 Press Release.

Furthermore, you can also review this article to determine What Are Leading Economic Indicators?

A few comments.....

Everyone is so negative. 😒 I like to be more of an optimist. 😁 Just because there is a decline in some of the LEI doesn't mean are recession is guaranteed. 🙅 I would think of these as more like an increased probability based on what is currently being measured in the market. These measurements are designed to give a broad understanding of the market but they are not the only measurements. 👍

It can still go either way......

There are other things that are going on that would create economic lift. They are not guaranteed either. So the best we can say "There is an increased risk of recession based on upon the LEI metrics". If you feel comfortable with the information then great, but if you feel there is more to the story then go find other economic measurements and incorporate them into your decision making. The Conference Board has a great metric system and is more likely to be more right then wrong, but look at it in terms of probabilities and not a guaranteed recession. Its a relative term.

If it was easy and everyone is 100% correct then we would all be rich! (Hypothetically, if we were all rich then even some of the rich would still be poor today. In other words rich and poor are relative to those around you. Economics is a social measurement by nature. Don't live for money alone because there are many more things in this world.

Why Accountability is Related to System Health (Clan Based System Example)

 In any system there is an opportunity to do the right thing and an opportunity to do the wrong thing. When bad behaviors are obvious and there is no accountability for those behaviors we should not only scratch our heads but we should also become concerned. Assuming there is such a thing as a clan based system, we would need to have some level of artifacts of behaviors that would indicated normally unacceptable behaviors have become legitimized.  We may have to also highlight the difference between those within a homogenous clan and those outside the clan. The story is designed to help us think about how corruption can impact all of our lives and when mixed with extremist elements run counter to our national values. 

The story of accountability and system health......

When systems are heavily influenced by clan corruption, with a touch of homogeneous extremism, they run the risk of derailing our root values and freedoms as Americans. Chronic free passes would be one such issues where we may be able to find some artifacts of consistent choice making outcomes. I suspect one could say there would be either repeated free passes on smaller issues and/or a gross free pass that wouldn't be acceptable under most circumstances. Multiple measurements by multiple people in different situations and different times would likely indicated a shared experience by a number of people (Different times, locations, meetings, reports, complaints, etc.). That may also indicate intentionality and purpose if consistency of poor decisions. (Keep in mind that coordinated groups leave data trails and many upset people who may have been silent. There are always artifacts of good and bad behavior. You just need to know where to look.)

Let us bring up the hypothetical but likely impossible example (....because we know it would never ever ever happen!). Someone wants something, has close officer friends, was coached by those officers how to harm a minority, spreads dangerous rumors to encourage violence and aggression, environment becomes dangerous, the target is rejected from a part-time job even though they and the taxpayer funded organization stated the candidate was more than qualified (failing to fulfill their mission), the sick are manipulated, kids are targeted, some officials join the cause to cleans their community from "undesirables", and all because someone told them "no" and drew a line to protect their children from hate (The single parent had every right in a situation of disturbing and manipulative behaviors that were harmful. The kids were moved away and encouraged to cut all ties for safety.).  

(One could ask questions, interview, check medical records, social media, etc... but  that would require removing the clan from protection. Indications of immunity provided prior, during, and after rampage. Typically it is just short sigjtedly easier to provide 3/5 justice accustomed to 2nd class citizens unwritten rules. The easiest route is likely mandatory mental health for the perpetrators and reform of the local institutions to protect our fellow Americans. Yet, nothing matters outside the clan. Good thing its all a fictitious story!)

(Pretend for a moment you were one of the families targeted by hate. Imagine if you watch them stand for oaths and you feel a sick feeling in your stomach as to where their commitment actual lays beyond the social show of professing faithfulness to certain values. To them, we are not included in that indivisibility and singular concept. You know people and you have bled tears for those rights. Justice is a abstract and far away concept for politicians and academics to ponder. In some of our local institutions justice is a code word clan based lessons in full view of stakeholders who should have done something but didn't want to appear un"cool" to their fellow clan members.)

( If even a small percentage is true one would call this local dereliction and it is where we should double down on getting us all back on the same page and creating a shared national vision through integrity. These rogue clans in direct competition with the official rule of law should be thwarted. When they stand up to give lip service to their oaths in some ways you want to help them by politely asking them to sit back down in case someone discovers what is in their hearts and they get embarrassed. Empathetic people often look for consistencies in action, word, and paralanguage. They can also tell when your lying most of the time. Then it dawns on you that they don't get embarrassed about things like integrity......so no need to say anything. You move on.... )

There are also official records that could be sought to double check if they left markers of bad behaviors there as well. One way to do this is to cross exam various demographics outputs to see which ones are statistically different then others. For example, one might look at skin color, religion, political affiliation, social networks (i.e. Good Friday targeting) etc. to have a clearer understanding if any of them seem to have preferential treatment in local laws. (Keep in might depending on the amount of cases it could be normal if a few cases skew the result. However, if these consistencies are over a few years then we may need to dig into cases further to see if there are other issues at play.)

We should notice that because prior heuristic and biased decisions were made there is an attempt to circumvent a correction. The stickiness of poor values is inappropriate and harmful and thus moves against the very nature of good governance. Where mistakes are made, the system must always be able to correct or it will run the risk of being seen as less than adequate to modern challenges, issues, and opportunities (i.e. low institutional trust.). As a nation we are struggling with low institutional trust and millions upon millions of people saying something similar and thus it is our next rung in national development. We don't want to see why that is the case and thus we have never corrected it. Someday more mature politicians will come forward to see with a new set of goggles. Its relatively easy to fix...but if you don't know then you don't know. Axis Mundi) We all should be free! (Even hypothetically!)

I looked around and found something on the Effects of Corruption published by the United Nations Office on Drugs & Crime. I thought it was sort of interesting how may different arenas corruption can take. You may also look at the DOJ's website on the different types of departments that fight against corruption Eastern Michigan (This is why I love police 100% and civil rights 110%). Sometimes behaviors can sort of bridge multiple areas and may need coordination. For example, in this example there might be two areas that it would appeal. Even when we are dealing with wild stories that could never be true, we can use them as learning tools to ensure they stay "never, ever true!" Sometimes the truth is shared on a much deeper level. Just saying.

*This is story is to help us learn about the essentials of freedom in modern times and the need to ensure we positively, politely and with diligence encourage greater moral and economic development of our nation and society.  

Wednesday, July 19, 2023

The Role of Applied Psychology in Human Resource Management (A Few Questions to Ask)

Human resource management practices can lead to greater utilization of human capital that results in stronger resources allocation and higher levels of worker output. Whether one is seeking to maximize employees on a group level or national performance level, the same general principles apply. People are people and they are often driven by their inner psychological needs. When we as a country, or organization, we can tap into and maximize those motivations (and rewards) to create high performance organizations that produce real value. 

Did you Say That and Do That? (Know what they are actually saying.)

Consider that each person scans their environment to determine their prospects (subconscious environmental scanning matched with one's abilities, histories, and needs). Some may take one route, and some might take another (i.e. higher education, military/public service, skilled trades, the arts) . They come with needs, wants, desires, and all types of inner urges (If you look for dissonance and biometric responses you can find deeper interests. It think you either need to know someone well or be really good at body-para language.). Finding ways to turning individual needs into collective action and outcomes is important. That requires a deeper understanding of the inner human mechanisms.  Human Instincts, Workmanship and Economic Development and The Economic System as an Avenue of Needs Fulfillment

What does Applied Psychology Do?

Take a look at this article that sums up I/O psychology and how that can work in the modern workplace. The Role of Psychology in Human Resource Management Consider how similar we are as a people and how our decisions and choices lead to macro economic outcomes. Our individual motivations, organizations maximize our motivations, and society reaps the benefits through growth and economic reach. 

Ask yourself a few questions:

1. Why is this person engaged in the job? Money, power, resources, meaning, etc. If we know what are their primary motives we can construct pathways to connect. 

2. What is unique about this person's personality and how can they best improve the whole (organization or nation)? People are biologically driven to contribute and if they are not more likely it is an environmental issue. Why inclusion on a societal level is needed. 

3. What are their skill attributes and how do we match that with current operational necessities to improve performance. i.e. emerging or current job fields.

4. What are other interests and skills the person might have which could lead to new avenues of development. Maximizing the whole person over a lifetime.

5. How do we maintain economic/organizational engagement over a long period of time? Finding new interests that appeal to maintain maximum engagement.


Snap shot of the Economy July 19th, 2023

 

The Quite Night Street
Economies are moving organisms of people's behaviors that are in constant flux. Taking a quick look at the snap shot of our economy is helpful to spot check growth and change. 

You can read a summary on Yahoo Finance. The complete story for markets and the economy right now: Morning Brief 

-Consumers feel good. Market up, inflation is down, and jobs are plentiful.

-Labor market strong.

-Energy down and food up. i.e. it costs less to drive to go get more expensive food.

-Wallstreet analysts revise upward initial projections. 

-Spending is resilient.



Tuesday, July 18, 2023

Lap Swimming in the Great Lakes (A Video on Technique)

Swimming is one of the best fitness and cardio sports. I have swam a lot in my life and used to go back and forth for an hour at a time in the pool. Similarly, I also have swam in the ocean and in fresh water. Despite being a pretty good swimmer there is always room for improvement. 

(I once almost drowned in the ocean from pushing myself and having an issue with getting enough air due to an infection I wasn't aware of. I looked back and made the choice to swim back to shore instead of the buoy. Good thing I did that. If I went the other way I wouldn't be here today.)

For the most part, I'm trying to improve my fitness and one of the philosophies I adhere is natural and varied activities. 

The other day it was warm so I decided to go jump in a lake with my goggles and start swimming. As a diver I don't always have other divers to go with so swimming and surface diving is helpful. 

Excellent video below....