Friday, June 9, 2023

An Article Teaches Why Its Time for the U.S. to Compete (War Games)

If you would like to read something that sent shivers down my spin it is the article below by Politico. Its not often that I read something and I think about the longer term ramifications of not being proactive as possible. Its a pretty in depth article so expect to sit for a while. Before you read, I have been advocating for innovation and development of infrastructure for a long time to encourage advanced Digital Age development (Basically, all next Gen stuff). 

To me, I think the markets are shifting back to U.S. manufacturing and if we were wise and played our cards right since COVID-19, we may find some of the negative news over the past few decades to provide a reversal of fortune. A little light at the end of the tunnel, a flicker of animal spirits in the economic world, one must provide vision and direction (human capital).

Some of that direction has come from the need to build stronger advanced manufacturing to strengthen our economic prospects. Such manufacturing requires equally advanced supply chains that can cross navigate and cross coordinate across different global networks. Its a much more finer and more calibrated system then what we had in the past because of the evolving changes in e-commerce. 

The Pentagon Is Freaking Out About a Potential War With China

Whatever we were doing in the past didn't completely work. The process got stale and we failed to change at some point which left us in a less then desirable position (We have a good economic base and some diversity opportunities China doesn't have. For example, Communism is about control and thus about uniformity. The U.S. as a diverse nation that seeks to maximize freedom encourage at its root creative competition. They are different systems. We are just failing to maximize our human capital well and there are a number of institutional and political reasons why that is happening.). We can change that, enhance our industrial base and develop our creative human capital. The problem is that we must be committed to change through a shared vision what that change may look like.

In some ways, we must again inspire our youth to become dreamers, strivers, inventors and builders! Switch the paradigm and put down the silliness of our times, learn from history, and make a commitment to a future strategic place. Change takes real commitment to our ideals and to our development as a nation. All Americans no matter their background. Republican and Democrat own the outcomes of this one and both parties owe the American people their best efforts. 

Are UAP Possible? Science Can Answer but Maybe Not Just Yet

Its funny we are talking about UFO's and we are doing so credibly. Some talk of UAPs and NASA. If your looking for some discussion on skepticism you can watch below. I do believe science can answer these wonders of the universe but without enough information we won't be able to definitively answer these questions. 

Personally, I think anything that you can invent with our mind is possible. I also believe it is more likely of human origin but because of all the unknowns I cannot rule out alien intelligent life. I believe we have found indications of microbial alien life so I would suspect higher forms are possible. 

Rumors, 14th Amendment and Principles of Justice! (Yale or Harvard?)

One of the things that happens in hate situations is the use of words as weapons and tools to damage, isolate, and eventually justify further hate against minorities (Doesn't have to be a minority. It could be an opposing party, retaliation, in opposition to something, etc. The point is that it is directed and intentionally destructive to its fellow Americans.) Hate is a tool used by some to set a stage against others. Let us explore the concept of hate form a hypothetical standpoint. It is helpful to sort of put some of these things into context for greater understanding and awareness.

(FYI You will see the concept of principle. Principle is not a rule but more of an observation that can be used to summarize knowledge from a particular phenomenon to create models. If the literature research more or less fits with what might be found in the thought experiment of a hypothetical situation we might say there is construct validity. A tool for pulling out the essentials in an argument for greater clarity. One could hypothetically code them, cross reference with literature/studies/observations for validity, and then chart potential connections of behaviors to better decipher what actually happened from a cause and effect. Some of this can be done by secondary data. I'm just saying hypothetically because it would depend on how much information could be obtained. That would be an intensive and intrusive process I suspect. Unless say departments, people, officers, etc. voluntarily did it just for the science of it all. We could use such information to solve similar problems in another place and save lives and protect liberty. I think if I was sort of thinking about the greater good. 🤔)

Its helpful to notice that this group of individuals have been spreading rumors for a long time and few within those networks can say that they didn't understand what is/was going on. If we (family and 10s of millions of Americans) were not seen as out-group "others", people would have likely questioned and disagreed with the dangerous hate based rhetoric. Yet because the other is a seemingly appropriately place to dump one's insecurities it then becomes fashionable in these networks that were prior predisposed through inappropriate perceptions to hold these perceptions.

Ok, ok, ......yes people often hold some bias against a lot of things and that isn't necessarily a problem. However, when there are racial, religious, and other differences matched with intentionally ostracization and aggressiveness that is an issue. Maybe not? The issue becomes more troubling when we find that there may not be backstops in the local justice system to protect our citizens. It might be important but that could also depend on what you think the role of our institutions are. I think they are to help society and I sort of put them in that framework (not everyone does).

(People like me know sort of how these systems work. Mostly people have their hearts in the right place but not everyone. We are considered somewhat disposable members in networks like this. In many ways, we learn what the most likely end result is and people will make decisions in complex ways but end of the day typically history repeats itself. As we have seen over the past few years in our struggles to hold to account local extremism that the laws sort stop apply where someone wants something and holds a biased view. All the flattery words we give lip service to don't really matter when they swear their oaths for liberty and justice just to look good and then walk out the door to do the exact opposite. While that may be a minority of people, there are still some who do it and there is almost no mechanism to get beyond their immunity. These people knew they were immune when they started and they were good at what they were doing so there was likely other situations and times when the intent of law was thrown out the window for the technicalities. Its a manipulation that has been going on with people for generations. From what I hear, that is a possibility. I'm not noble anything but there are moral issues when you target adults, kids, and community members. Its a shared experience for a huge percentage of society so I don't think any leader at any political persuasion of any religious background should ignore millions of people because they have an issue with our central American principles. There are some of us who know that justice sometimes reaches it intended goal many times it just gets short of that. Hypothetically but I suspect much of society might feel the same. Here is one person's view of the topic in 'Corruption and Discrimination: Two sides of the same coin?' Before you get excited I'm 100% for police, 110% for civil rights and freedom of religion like the first Pilgrims wanted, and 150% for our Constitution and values of freedom. In todays world, not sure everyone understands those concepts. Its about making the best system in the world based on our shared values and those extremist views should not be given official recognition and credibility. For example, no one has been held to account and it makes no difference how obvious or illegal the behavior. That is what a huge swatch of society sees in these hypothetical cases. Sometimes it works out a different way and the law comes through on a higher order universal system. Likely the next stage in our democracy's development.)

Once people follow their social networks without thinking based on already distorted perceptions of the world we have what is called a socially constructed reality (There was a discussion on this prior.👆). To anchor this, I think there is an extensive library of history books of similarly motivated incidents and the atrocities that resulted from blind followership only to be debunked in hindsight by history. There are times when one must have distance to recalculate the way in which they selectively misinterpret information (That is why I love being a pacifist for the most part because you have the patience to be patient. Plato and Allegory of Cave)

Principle: Group hate follows social networks and creates its own logic like a cult. 

Principle: Hate speech can be embedded into the messages and intent of rumors.

Principle: Lack of accountability and back stops indicate potential clan type systems of justice.

While we can profess fairness and justice we cannot yet claim that in this hypothetical situation until we know the final outcomes. (As a hypothetical there needs not be more outcome than understanding. If it was real then it would be a pretty big problem!)We should not expect justice to be 100% accurate all the time but we should always expect it to reach for our ideals and do the very best it can with tools it currently manages. In earnestness to do the right thing, update its tools, ask the right questions, follow our American ideas and at its very root have awake 'moral conscious' that leads to moral conscience.

 (Don't get too hung up on the example I included. Most major religions I studied have a similar strain of logic and I could show that if someone was in doubt. Often this is the cause because they share histories and moral essentials. For example, in most countries its immoral to murder, steal, and commit offenses but not all countries enforce those basic values from a universal perspective.  This was writing by a doctor in the field that has published many times about these topics so I think that trumps extremist views on professed beliefs. I wonder if he would have an opinion on the hypothetical situation for learning and teaching sake?🤔)

Principle: While we cannot expect justice to be 100% accurate we should expect it to reach for the highest of justice ideals (i.e. not being stuck in blind processes without constantly challenging them.)

When such situations occur with obvious bigotries and acts of sanctioned aggression, we should to start thinking about the long term impact of its potential to be repeated in other places in similar ways (I would guess a side argument might be how many other places?)

Principle: What happens in one place can be happening in others so we must be diligent in providing realized justice in each case.

What if we had a country that only a small sliver of religious were accepted, laws were disparate among people, there were no backstops to crimes, no accountably when issues happen, no ability of certain races or religious to obtain employment (blocked and ghosted from a local part-time employment after employer said a person was more than qualified. If so it would be a serious EEOC violation), intentional targeting of minority children by officers/friends/network, etc.? We could get really excited and add to the confounding situation officers trying to protect their own from getting in trouble when they should have reported these potentially illegal behaviors right away. They were caught in false expectations of their roles. Under that impossible scenario it would create serious long term risks to stability.

Principle: It would be strategically misaligned to allow an emphasis on allowing disparate treatment between diverse religions, races, social networks, political ideologies, etc. in a nation as large as ourselves and within our cultural perspectives of freedom.

Ask yourself how such local defunct systems might seem to the targets and the vast majority of now diverse Americans? Especially important for vets and others who served their country but then found when its convenient these groups can wipe away all the centuries of people who have fought and died for their country simply because that person wasn't the right race or religion. Its disrespectful and in my humble opinion against our Constitution and thus unamerican in its root orientation. 

Principle: Its unamerican to target veterans (that includes others), intellectuals, community activists/improvers and/or police, government officials or others simply because  of one's distorted outlook on nationalism and patriotism.

Being a free people and a free nation rests on encouraging freedom and justice in hypothetical cases just like this impossible scenario which we know could never happen just because we know it! It becomes increasingly difficult to convince the next generation we actualize those values without taking steps to preserve them from dissolution. (Notice I didn't say profess those values and then not follow through. I think deep down people know the difference between leadership and used car salesman within their souls. It might take them a while with reflection to understand what they sense but I think we are rooted to know the difference in professed and actualized values.)

Sometimes it is better to whisper, "Who are you and what defines you?" or perhaps, "Who are we if we allow such behaviors to go unaccounted or unimproved?" (Make the connection between us as individuals and us as a collective. Think through the different perceptual angles of I, ME, and WE. ) There is something called the 14th Amendment but often these are outside the scope of my hypothetical conversation. I suspect if someone violates these amendments, with or without knowledge, then their ability to maintain our principles in a leadership position is compromised. Thus, as a leader they did not function to fulfill their role as a public servant. Thus, I leave the interpretation of the 14th Amendment to those who discussed this concept at Yale “Equal Protection” Origins and Legacies of the Fourteenth Amendment)

(I think I might be more of a Harvard man but I'm not really sure, Yale sometimes comes up with some good stuff! My friend just got a degree from Harvard and he likes it, so I suspect Yale would be pretty similar. I took a couple of classes but failed/abandoned my economics class and then got busy so I didn't reenroll. Kind of want to poke around and take a few more to keep my brain pliable update my skills. Maybe take on from Yale and just see if  they are similar or different. I hear they are just different type of people. Anyway, this is kind of funny.😅💨 Why Did I Choose Yale?).


Canadian Mass Fire Pictures and Images

This is an amazing and sad fire burning in Canada and impacting parts of the U.S.. As someone who firefights I am starting to pay attention to these ideas and concepts. One part of me says that we are experiencing some climate change issues and another part wonders how we can fix some of those issues. 

If the trend for mass disaster issues continue to creep upwards we will be putting much more resources into ecological protection and development. We will likely try and use conservation to help protect wildlife and human life. That is kind of why I say it is ok to cut trees as long as you are planting more then what is cut in order to improve total biosphere health. Also, one might consider variety in that planting to ensure eco diversity. 

Thursday, June 8, 2023

What might be going on with China's 7% Decline in May 2023?

An interesting article relating to a 7.% decline in Chinese exports caught my eye today. It took me a minute to find the time to come back and actually read the paper because I was sort of busy doing other things. Went out to eat and finally came back to sit down for a while. I figured I better stay on top of the news for my own economic research so I cracked open my digital newspaper, smoothed out the edges, and began to read while sipping my coffee ☕ (Ok none of that has anything to do with the article....sorry......😆)

 Read this interesting article on some reasons why this might be happening.

China's exports fall 7.5% in May, adding to stimulus talk

The article states, "debt-laden property sector, limp consumer confidence and a global economic slowdown". I might take this to mean we saw some housing large real estate lending banking difficulties last year, consumers don't have product appetite, in general the supply chains might be adjusting and shifting due to geopolitical issues (Of which some of that may be related to support of Russia, I would be curious which countries specifically declined in purchasing Chinese products/services and was that more pronounced in some localities when compared to general decline in the market? i.e. are there other factors beyond the market itself such as general moral sentiment over such conflicts? I don't know, I didn't look but it would be interesting to pull economic data if available and see if one could feasibly come to that possible conclusion. That data is probably is available but would need to be statistically analyzed for strength of relationship and variances. The video below mentions that the U.S. and European exports are down but whether or not there is another reason would need to be ruled out.)

According to the IMF reports on GDP we can sort of see how  China is on a somewhat downward trend in GDP growth over the last say 20 years (...since the peak in the 90's. I wonder if we could call this the decade where we sort of shortchanged America for a few pennies on the share?🤔 🤑💸) and the U.S. looks like it could be leveling off in its GDP growth decline. (Imagine if we could turn more positive with improvements in human capital, technology, infrastructure and government decision making collaboration. Wow...it would be amazing what we could do! 💁).

Just so I'm not confusing anyone, including myself (I actually do confuse myself sometimes but sometimes that comes from too many divergent possibilities and I'm not sure in all the places where they may intersect and create certain outcomes and under what circumstances. That happens when there are too many contingencies of possibilities without enough information to actually understand the powerful probability of potential paths. Basically its annoying things that can't fully be understood until new information is brought forward.). I'm saying that China is increasing but the rate of that increase is declining while the decline of U.S. GDP growth may have slowed. What would be interesting is if at the end of this year, and perhaps the start (to middle) of next year we saw a small sputter of a reversal (i.e. US growth). 

These things are really hard to predict and I suspect there are many other outcomes. For the past few decades we have not been at our most competitive (Cant figure out why. 🧐 However, if China is experiencing some problems, U.S. companies are faster at adapting, and at the end of the day policies and behaviors improve national performance, at that point anything is possible.)

IMF China

  • Real GDP growth (Annual percent change)
    5.2
  • Inflation rate, average consumer prices (Annual percent change)
    2

U.S. Real GDP 

  • Real GDP growth (Annual percent change)
    1.6
  • Inflation rate, average consumer prices (Annual percent change)
    4.5

Early Morning Motivation Video: History of Military Sacrifices for Our Freedoms, the saga continues......

 This AM I'm thinking about those sacrifices throughout the generations that have allowed us to continue strive for the best Republic we can make. Some of us are aware of those triumphs and some of us are beneficiaries of such sacrifices. Some of us contribute and some of us get a free ride. As you go throughout your day, remember that the freedom is a constant struggle and we must hold tightly to our essential American values. There are those of us who still believe, and there are some who have forgotten a long time ago. 

Make the best day you can out of every day. We are a single nation indivisible. Be a contributor and don't let anyone circumvent those freedoms!  

Wednesday, June 7, 2023

Rowing Single Sculling on the Water

Sometimes in the morning the water is clear, all is silent except the birds chirping in the background, and you push off the dock. This morning I was out single sculling. I opted to give up my seat on the quad to practice more individually. It has been a while so I'm rusty. I went out infrequently a long time ago in San Diego but then got busy and didn't keep up with it.

Its not as easy as it looks. First, these boats are tippy. Second, they require some fairly serious coordination. Third, if you fall off you should know how to get back on. While the team of rowers would come by and check on me everyone once in a while ultimately I was up to my own devices.

The good news is that I didn't get wet and I was sort of getting into it after an hour. Not perfect but at least I'm out on the water.

Anyway, some motivation below.....just by watching it I realized I was doing something incorrect.