Friday, June 9, 2023

Canadian Mass Fire Pictures and Images

This is an amazing and sad fire burning in Canada and impacting parts of the U.S.. As someone who firefights I am starting to pay attention to these ideas and concepts. One part of me says that we are experiencing some climate change issues and another part wonders how we can fix some of those issues. 

If the trend for mass disaster issues continue to creep upwards we will be putting much more resources into ecological protection and development. We will likely try and use conservation to help protect wildlife and human life. That is kind of why I say it is ok to cut trees as long as you are planting more then what is cut in order to improve total biosphere health. Also, one might consider variety in that planting to ensure eco diversity. 

Thursday, June 8, 2023

What might be going on with China's 7% Decline in May 2023?

An interesting article relating to a 7.% decline in Chinese exports caught my eye today. It took me a minute to find the time to come back and actually read the paper because I was sort of busy doing other things. Went out to eat and finally came back to sit down for a while. I figured I better stay on top of the news for my own economic research so I cracked open my digital newspaper, smoothed out the edges, and began to read while sipping my coffee ☕ (Ok none of that has anything to do with the article....sorry......😆)

 Read this interesting article on some reasons why this might be happening.

China's exports fall 7.5% in May, adding to stimulus talk

The article states, "debt-laden property sector, limp consumer confidence and a global economic slowdown". I might take this to mean we saw some housing large real estate lending banking difficulties last year, consumers don't have product appetite, in general the supply chains might be adjusting and shifting due to geopolitical issues (Of which some of that may be related to support of Russia, I would be curious which countries specifically declined in purchasing Chinese products/services and was that more pronounced in some localities when compared to general decline in the market? i.e. are there other factors beyond the market itself such as general moral sentiment over such conflicts? I don't know, I didn't look but it would be interesting to pull economic data if available and see if one could feasibly come to that possible conclusion. That data is probably is available but would need to be statistically analyzed for strength of relationship and variances. The video below mentions that the U.S. and European exports are down but whether or not there is another reason would need to be ruled out.)

According to the IMF reports on GDP we can sort of see how  China is on a somewhat downward trend in GDP growth over the last say 20 years (...since the peak in the 90's. I wonder if we could call this the decade where we sort of shortchanged America for a few pennies on the share?🤔 🤑💸) and the U.S. looks like it could be leveling off in its GDP growth decline. (Imagine if we could turn more positive with improvements in human capital, technology, infrastructure and government decision making collaboration. Wow...it would be amazing what we could do! 💁).

Just so I'm not confusing anyone, including myself (I actually do confuse myself sometimes but sometimes that comes from too many divergent possibilities and I'm not sure in all the places where they may intersect and create certain outcomes and under what circumstances. That happens when there are too many contingencies of possibilities without enough information to actually understand the powerful probability of potential paths. Basically its annoying things that can't fully be understood until new information is brought forward.). I'm saying that China is increasing but the rate of that increase is declining while the decline of U.S. GDP growth may have slowed. What would be interesting is if at the end of this year, and perhaps the start (to middle) of next year we saw a small sputter of a reversal (i.e. US growth). 

These things are really hard to predict and I suspect there are many other outcomes. For the past few decades we have not been at our most competitive (Cant figure out why. 🧐 However, if China is experiencing some problems, U.S. companies are faster at adapting, and at the end of the day policies and behaviors improve national performance, at that point anything is possible.)

IMF China

  • Real GDP growth (Annual percent change)
    5.2
  • Inflation rate, average consumer prices (Annual percent change)
    2

U.S. Real GDP 

  • Real GDP growth (Annual percent change)
    1.6
  • Inflation rate, average consumer prices (Annual percent change)
    4.5

Early Morning Motivation Video: History of Military Sacrifices for Our Freedoms, the saga continues......

 This AM I'm thinking about those sacrifices throughout the generations that have allowed us to continue strive for the best Republic we can make. Some of us are aware of those triumphs and some of us are beneficiaries of such sacrifices. Some of us contribute and some of us get a free ride. As you go throughout your day, remember that the freedom is a constant struggle and we must hold tightly to our essential American values. There are those of us who still believe, and there are some who have forgotten a long time ago. 

Make the best day you can out of every day. We are a single nation indivisible. Be a contributor and don't let anyone circumvent those freedoms!  

Wednesday, June 7, 2023

Rowing Single Sculling on the Water

Sometimes in the morning the water is clear, all is silent except the birds chirping in the background, and you push off the dock. This morning I was out single sculling. I opted to give up my seat on the quad to practice more individually. It has been a while so I'm rusty. I went out infrequently a long time ago in San Diego but then got busy and didn't keep up with it.

Its not as easy as it looks. First, these boats are tippy. Second, they require some fairly serious coordination. Third, if you fall off you should know how to get back on. While the team of rowers would come by and check on me everyone once in a while ultimately I was up to my own devices.

The good news is that I didn't get wet and I was sort of getting into it after an hour. Not perfect but at least I'm out on the water.

Anyway, some motivation below.....just by watching it I realized I was doing something incorrect.

 

Tuesday, June 6, 2023

Muti Tasking Research: Keeping it all moving forward. (The importance of research)

I'm working on a number of pieces of research right now and yes I have a little juggling to do in my somewhat eclectic life. At present, I'm on a research team discussing traits of leadership and analyzing those traits for statistically significant relationships. The other research I'm engaged in is economics and it has led to a lot of wonderful things but also comes with a caveat that was discovered through the process. I will discuss that caveat in the future at some point. Either way, I think what I'm doing is pretty important for economics, leadership, and even our civic duties (Some might not agree.). More on all that on another date....

Economic Cluster Research

My current stage of development is nearing the drafting and writing stage. I have included the basic information into my study but need to spend some time going through it and ensuring it is rewritten many times and in turn also connected well together. I am reviewing how some of those concepts are playing out in the current market and if they have any level of predictability. Through that research I found something else interesting and I believe it has merit and worth thinking and talking at some point. 

Leadership Competencies 

Leadership is important to our institutions and societies. Sometimes we get great leaders and sometimes we don't. There are certain competencies that we seek in leadership to fulfill our expectations as a society. We need certain competencies to succeed in our organizations and as a nation as a whole (All nations need good leaders.). Thus, understanding them leads to ways to possibly enhance certain leadership traits within the learning system itself (It sort of matches up to the competency system-model another researcher and myself sort of developed. It is being adopted.).

Competency characteristics are important to understand because without understanding certain needed characteristics we might fall into the same trap of electing, promoting, or encouraging leadership competencies that are not in alignment with long term organizational goals and objectives. We must start with knowing what specific competencies we need in leadership and then we can move onto other discussions. Thus, I not only support Research in leadership but also support self-professed leaders to keep Developing themselves to help develop their organizations (I guess that is called Research & Development! LOL. 🤣)

Because leaders make important decisions and influence others understanding of the world, it is helpful to narrow down to preferred characteristics. That comes with testing perceptions.  Researching and Development is part of the process of enhancing human capital through grooming our youth to be tomorrows leaders (We sort of messed up a little on a few things in my generation, but we have an opportunity to take what we learned and help the next generation. In research there are no mistakes, just more opportunities to understand. The silver lining.). If we can take broad based understanding of leadership that applies to most people we can then apply those concepts to enhance leadership through education.

Research Keeps Our Nation Going and Growing 

Research is becoming increasingly important to our society and our leadership over the past few years. We may have made a few assumptions that we are at the top of the game and we need no change, focus or attention. Additional perspectives in the decision making tree might have led to the problem's discovery a decade, two, or three ago through better perception sharing (More diverse top leadership teams from different something like race and culture all the way over to cognitive differences.) Let me show you an example of a problem creative capital matched with strategic decision making might have helped with....

Wake Up, America: China Is Overtaking the United States in Innovation Capacity

What you will notice is that China is poised to overcome the U.S. in technological development and some of that has come from not seeing the need for improvement and acting on that need early enough to avoid the problem in the first place. Reactivity is expected at first when we become aware we need to put on our economic rally caps on to get us out of the mess we ourselves have made.

As the authors states in the report, (Clay & Atkinson, 2023, Conclusion Para 5), 

"Overall, the previous decade was a success for China with respect to innovation and technological catch-up with the United States. The key question for U.S. policymakers is not whether China will continue to make gains relative to the United States when it comes to innovation and advanced production (that depends in large part on U.S. actions) but whether policymakers will make this challenge the central organizing principle for U.S. economic and technology policy. Doing so requires the kinds of national organization and commitment America has been able to muster in the past, from Hamilton’s efforts to become technologically independent from England to Roosevelt’s “arsenal of democracy” to the multi-administration effort to defeat the Soviet Union. In each case, leaders agreed on the challenge and, albeit sometimes with difficulty, mobilized political will and societal and economic resources to respond and win. That is once again America’s challenge. In the next decade, America must decide whether it will meet this challenge or shrink from it."

Now I have been looking at human capital for 2+ decades from a very unique angle and I will say that we have a human capital problem. On an individual level and on an institutional level. I believe matching enlightened leadership to more universal human capital development would create broad based improvements that impacts nearly all of the other economic factors at a root transactional level (infrastructure, crime, inventions/patents, pro-social behaviors, airports, ports, supply chains, money method, availability of information, market exposure, etc...) within the economic system (in my cluster case).  Thus, enhancing our infrastructure and technology development within rapid innovation systems (clusters) can happen through tying human capacity (creative and skill) to a receptive and investment rewarding environment that could spark industry butterfly innovation through multiple industries at the same time.

Is research and development important? Let us think about that for a moment.

Digital GDP (Changes in technology)

Infrastructure (An enhancement)

Economic Hubs in Asia The author of the study above mentioned the problem has been around for a decade so I wanted to include this decade old post. That shifting of jobs oversees is longer than a decade ago and I see it as almost 4 decades of often misaligned leadership decisions to long term objectives of national health (Somethings we do well and somethings we don't. This one we didn't think about long enough). 







There is more...I just put a few. 

Because I like to keep life a little on the light side I included a somewhat funny video on mad scientists. 😏😂 Sorry, I find this stuff sort of funny. Its like slapstick comedy. 🙊 💨

Disclaimer, I did hear a swear word in there so FYI.


Values of Toxic Souls and Socially Tight Groups (The Hate Narrative and Research)

A few ideas on hate this AM. Looking to see if there are potentials for solutions. We seem to be struggling with this concept of hate and we are currently in this process of dealing with such behaviors on a national level. However, on a local level we have sort of a different issue because our national values and laws don't always carry their way into local decision making. The same elements that would not be acceptable in our national arenas then become more acceptable in our local arenas. A few toxic souls split communities and do so with intent. They should not be the last voice echoing as we emerge from our cave of unawareness. Let a whisper resonate with the clarity of a gong.

Flip Flopping of Societal Values

In my life I have met accomplished humble people who have done amazing things, don't brag about it, and also not have the moral dilapidation to ask for anything, treat anyone poorly, or put themselves above others in an arrogant manner. They are amazing people who are 1 in a million to make it through their challenges and accomplish their goals (I can tell you stories of people who have seen horrors of this world and are still contributors to society. They are not the takers that rob us of our unity.). 

We know we have an issue when amazing and accomplished people are seen as not worthy of basic civility or respect because of superficial perceptions of race, religion, and social acceptance. I have stumbled across a few professional sports players, inventors, doctors, survivors and even a few extremely wealthy and influential people in my life and I have not seen the level of arrogance that I have seen among the core members of this group. I'm shocked by it and how sort of out of place it is within our modern world (I mean, it does happen but in my experience I have never seen it so bold and confident before without any accountability or backstop. That must come from years of small group socialization to norms and rules developed at a young age.) 

Some of the more vocal members of this group engage in wholesale rumor manipulation to influence their environment in ways that help their social position. You can scratch your head and think, "How did that become this and where was that connected to this? How did kids be worthy of mistreatment and how might unconscionable now become acceptable?  Why were other kids encouraged to be involve in hate based behaviors? 🤔" What you will likely find as a potential answer is that someone(s) is/are manipulating information and intentionally trying to create narratives and rumors to distance themselves from responsibility as well as create social barriers designed to block and harm their targets.

Their association with a few police officers, and general familiarity to many different officers, creates an escalated extension of risk because of the influence of distorted rumor networks that set the stage for what appears to be pseudo cleansing  behaviors (May not be psuedo, it may be full scale but I am trying to be polite about itSuch as perhaps attempting to orchestrate an arrest on Good Friday to teach ____fill in the blank______ what religion's will be allowed in "their town". It might be a sign of subconscious or conscious extremism where they are using the law as extension of seriously distorted misunderstanding of their religion and the very root values that make America free. Maybe not? 🤷) 

By deduction we come to realize that there may be a number of toxic souls pushing a story that puts all the focus on the victims "worthiness" of hate while triangulating others, official or unofficial, to be extensions of their feelings and goals (Official is the laws as intended. Corruption is not official and is shadow market behavior seen in third world  nations based on sociological fears. I can't go into that in this post because it is in and of itself could be a whole subsection of history and sociology. Its not like we should cold morally discount the tens of other millions of Americans that have also witness similar behaviors without risking low institutional trust in similar arenas. Something we are currently struggling with). Others become tools and flying monkeys within the system.

Toxic Souls and Tight Groups

Most of the people in this group are in really good people but there are a few toxic souls who prompt others on how to behave and what types of relations with "others" (i.e. some of it appears to be based in a dark triad personality trait.) I don't really blame most of the group because they were raised together and so they trust each other to the point of group irrationality. However, acting on that in any way beyond recognizing the mental health, and general maliciousness of behavior, is concerning to say the least.

While group members recognize the targets as generally polite and friendly people they have no alternative sources of information to counter the hate narrative (A distinct characteristic of intent and method.). The very purpose of ostracization as a control method that separates communities and creates segregation (The people who do this don't care about their communities or about the 60% of other Americans. They have something to gain that is both psychological and tangible. Trace each action and you will find it go back to self gain each time pathologically. If you were to dig deeper you might ask what are those goal directed behaviors? I think you will find three possibilities.). 

The same voices that dominated their conversations in childhood still dominate the group today. Its almost as though they are frozen in time and because of that homogenous isolation have not learned that their in-group perception might be a little distorted when it comes to others in the world around them (Its actually interesting to see how interpretations default back to basic false assumptions that were never questioned during the normal development process. You can tract that logic if you pay attention to the assumptions inherent within the dialogue.)

Change Your World and Change your Perception

One of the reasons why I like the Allegory of the Cave is because if you are unaware then you just don't know, what you don't know. As confusing as that may sound, to some of us know the world is full of layers of depth. One of the telling signs of how different people seem to others is through changing of environments. Through my experience I have come to recognize that the various communities and people (even here) do believe in our shared American values on a root level because they have a benefit to everyone. We all want some basic things but it is the toxic souls in our communities and in our politics (national or local) that often derail our common causes. Changing our perception from 'American' and "American" as separate into a single shared identity is helpful. Its hard to sell to some.

 (I'm adding the single quote mark ' to the first word because neither of the pendulum perceptions are truly accurate. There is some sociological justification in other studies why that occurs. I'm now using the term American as a fuller conception of 'American' and "American" as anchored to Our Shared Principles. I won't use caps there either because I guess that the term such as AMERICAN PRINCIPLES or OUR PRINCIPLES infuriates some members of this corrupted network.  Perhaps they didn't want our American principles to be noticeable and emboldened. Maybe they want those values to be in the back ground and not emboldened in our conscious. 🤷 

If you have been following the writings for a while you will kind of understand what I'm saying. See the beauty of developing shared perspective and higher performance, whether local or nation, is to be able to bridge the mental gap of two or more different perspectives in order to create a better shared perspectives that are more scientifically accurate. If you can't see any validity in any varying information, you can't really lead people to a positive end. Your just pushing an unvetted, uncritically examined, ideological perspective that you don't know makes sense because you haven't played devils advocate. If you can't understand the "others" perspective you can't even truly understand your own perspective. Just saying!

People’s Group-Oriented Moral Values 

Let me sort of conclude with this study...

"Our results, from these U.S. based studies, suggest that moral values oriented around group preservation are predictive of the county-level prevalence of hate groups and associated with the belief that extreme behavioral expressions of prejudice against marginalized groups are justified. Additional analyses suggest that the association between group-based moral values and EBEPs against outgroups can be partly explained by the belief that these groups have done something morally wrong." (Atari, et. al, 2021, Abstract, para 1.) (Hmmmm, makes you think. 🤔💁)

When we look at the section below I'm debating if I'm understanding correctly because it seems to indicate that hate gravitates toward local and social by nature. That is what I see but the authors may intend something else so I'm curious if they have input on that. It doesn't mean they have more insight because research is limited by scope, but they do note that future research is needed to understand this  variance.

Discussion section, para 1,

"Even though we argue that local spatial smoothing is the more appropriate analysis for our data because (1) neither binding values nor hate groups are meaningfully constrained by state boundaries and (2) fixed effects estimators are likely to be underpowered when applied to data with low within-group variation, we note that, when state-fixed effects were added to the model, the relationship between binding values and the rate of hate groups was not distinguishable from null (Atari, et. al. 2021, Discussion para 1)."

Discussion section, para 2,

"These results suggest that the association between binding values and justifying acts of hate depends, at least partially, on people’s perceptions of outgroup moral violations. In Studies 2 and 3, we found that this association was positively mediated by PMW for two marginalized groups in the U.S. context, Muslims (Study 2) and Mexican immigrants (Study 3), even after adjusting for participants’ political ideology. (Atari, et. al. 2021. Discussion Para 2.)"

One might wonder if the Capital Riots were a collective of semi associated, ideologically aligned, partially coordinated (..except probably a central group and maybe another more formal one in the background.) funneling of local hate into a collective result that might have thrown our country into serious chaos and could potentially have ended the long running 250 year democratic experiment (I mean for some its not really a big deal so we just sort of think of such things as tailgate parties and toga parties that got out of hand.

I talked to what I believe in hindsight was an extremist once on the phone. He was so angry he denigrated the dead, insinuated all Muslims are terrorists and said that people around here don't care about people like that as he referred to the dead person's dark skinned race. A kind of all encompassing hate with different targets. He felt very secure in his beliefs and confident in sharing those beliefs with me. I politely stated that I'm very happy his kind lost the Civil War. He hung up.

Such rage likely has a mental health component and I think there would be studies to show that connection of pathology and behavioral outcomes. Its an uphill battle to get decision makers to see the connection between hate and mental health. Some of it might be based on empathy capacity and with the right environment we can grow these seedlings of moral conscious and compass. This is why I advocated for the perpetrators to be require to have a mental health evaluation. I'm aware that one, if not more, have a diagnosable mental health issue which I believe is a contributing factor in their displayed and observed behaviors.

Going back to the disgruntled attorney their aspirations of greatness and daddy's help, might go on someday, when he gets more experience, to have an important role in one of our institutions as a judge making decisions over people that he despises and in which he would like to removed for "soiling" his society. In our current distorted wisdom, we might go on to assume that this person is not going to make fair and impartial decisions over others he belittles no matter how much he can fake it while people are looking. Bias goes a long way in outcomes. We now have the capacity to check into such things but it takes years of unempathetic damage to build a case.

Stopping hate before it gets out of hand has its merits for society and for our institution integrity, growth and stability. Its hard to sell liberty politically sometimes because the centuries of deep human sacrifice to get us where we are today cannot fit into a jingle or slogan. We owe it to the next generation to finish our fathers, grandfathers, and national founders work of freedom; even if it doesn't fit into a catchy tune. That is here, that is everyone within our country. I'm a believer in democracy and liberty. I have also put in my time the best I can to support the pillars of our democracy. I can't say that for everyone.)

Let us look at this study a little more to see who likely would engage in hate and the hate narrative.

Discussion Section, Para, 4,

"Accordingly, our results suggest that people who attribute moral violations to an outgroup may be at higher risk for justifying, or perhaps even expressing, extreme prejudice toward outgroups; however, our results also suggest that people who prioritize the binding values may be particularly susceptible to this dynamic when they perceive a violation of ingroup loyalty, respect for authority, and physical or spiritual purity. In this sense, our findings are consistent with the hypothesis that acts of hate—a class of behaviors of which many have received their own special legal designation as particularly heinous crimes4—are partly motivated by individuals’ moral beliefs. This view is well-grounded in current understandings of the relationship between morality and acts of extremism or violence."(Atari, et. al. 2021, Discussion Para 4.)

I'm a light right Republican, not a politician, and I have become someone saddened by the far right and left ideologies that do not take into account the greater needs of society. If we are going to make it through our transformational hump as a nation that wants to compete at a top game level, we will need to find a better way to effectively handle those who only want a small sliver of society to receive its benefits; whether or not they earned it. We have a responsibility to go to the next stage in democratic and national development. Motivating the masses with fair treatment and opportunity is one of the best things we can do (The devils in the details of course.)

Good thing such grotesque behaviors are seen by some as an impossibility in modern life. Maybe a fictious fable to scare adults and kids alike into appropriate social expectations of appropriate personal association that excludes "those people". (Perhaps a modern version of Hansel and Gretel ? Beyond all stories is a piece of truth. Most people can't see it or reflect on the essential message of such stories.) . The problem is that "those people" are more a figment of their selective imagination than a reflection of observational accuracy.  Monkey Blindness, Morality, and Monkeys Teach Social Rules and one of my favorites Does Hyper-Politics Limit Freedom of Speech, Knowledge Sharing, and National Development?.

What me might wonder is whether corruption wins or not in this situation? I can't be sure, but it does appear there are no local backstops when justice defaults. So, there can only be three main outcomes and each one determines our values as a people and in some ways our nation through I suppose the outcomes of a long line of choices based on such thinking. Decision making is never truly isolated to one location but connects a series of choices together that leads to specific short and long term outcomes. We can't profess one thing and do another because it impacts not only our present state of cultural chaos but also our future cultural stability (Sociological and Economic). Each of the three rabbit holes is a reflective choice; albeit not an easy one.

If I make a probably selection based on history alone and some of the witness experiences of others in society I might see defaults of oaths, values, and justice. If I go by those who are starting to see the errors of their prior choices and how those outcomes impact communities, and even the nation, then we might say today we might turn a new leaf. (Its just my perspective. I bet there are a lot of people who disagree and agree what the role of justice should be in preserving our essential American values. I have my own esoteric beliefs about the values of life and the value of democracy. Others have their beliefs about that and who is invited to the democratic table of opportunity. An unexamined component might be, why are not all the craftsman who built that table invited to eat on it and is that a collective community table or does that belong to a particular group?)

Hoover J, Atari M, Mostafazadeh Davani A, Kennedy B, Portillo-Wightman G, Yeh L, Dehghani M. Investigating the role of group-based morality in extreme behavioral expressions of prejudice. Nat Commun. 2021 Jul 28;12(1):4585. doi: 10.1038/s41467-021-24786-2. PMID: 34321479; PMCID: PMC8319297. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8319297/


Sunday, June 4, 2023

Art Market in Butchertown Louisville KY (The Value of the Art Industry)

Having some time to waste this Sunday I went down to Butchertown Art Fair. Found a couple of cool things. I have a small good works business so I am always looking for things I can sort of find value in. I met a guy who carves printing casts. That may allow me to brand some packaging and a few small items for the virtual store. Its not my product but a cheap way to sort of get a few novelty items to be print on demand for customers. Maybe send a sweatshirt out when someone makes a larger order.

In general, you will notice these markets pop up in either trendy or high end neighborhoods. They are sources of creativity and sometimes you can get really good ideas from them. 

Apparently the market for art is 68 billion U.S. dollars 2022 by Statista (I don't know how they calculate so I can't tell you about accuracy).