Memorial Day 2023

Today is a day of remembrance. We went through a lot of sacrifices as a nation and lost a lot to have those freedoms. Today, I'm going to attend one of the memorial services. 

Tentative Debt Agreement Obtained for U.S. Government Funding and Debt

This is good news. That doesn't mean that we don't have a problem and more work to do to balance the budget but a big hurdle in stability was found. Not everyone is going to be happy but its a start. 

Flowers and Dolphins from Shelter Island

There are few things in life that are as beautiful as flower and exciting as watching dolphins jumping out of the water. While we seem to get into the bustle of things quickly sometimes it is beneficial to start one's day with a little of the simple pleasures of life. 

Defrauding Research Funding: electromagnetic analysis scientists learn values the hard way!

Ethics in science is very important because we want our resources being used for exactly what they are expected to be used for. It is important to remember that fraud and cheating end up costing the rest of society some serious money. Those are resources that can be used in other places to solve other national problems. Researchers should always seek to maintain a higher standard of integrity. 

Grants are important for funding new innovative research and it is necessary to have some level of oversight to ensure the money is being spent accurately. What I find interesting about this is that despite their high education it didn't seem to impact their values. I wonder how they thought at some point someone isn't going to ask about these expenses. 

While, depending on study design and department need, there could be use for things like cameras or a other few pieces of equipment I would doubt the private hunting club would make that list. 

"$200,000 in personal expenses on Fraley’s PCard, including, two four-wheelers and a trailer, two Sony 52-inch flat-screen televisions, Apple computers, iPads, OtterBox protective cases, iPods, Kindle E-readers, Leica and Nikon digital cameras, video cameras, a mini micro pinhole video camcorder pen, a night vision monocular, two pairs of binoculars, Bose headphones, a 3D printer, sports watches with heart-rate monitors, sunglasses, materials used to perform private consulting contracts, computer monitors and solar panels for a private hunting club, a personal video network for home use, and an uninterruptible power supply for a tennis ball machine."

When I have worked with grants typically you would be required to submit budget updates and outline many of these expenses prior to approval. However, in normal large research grants you may have other expenses that come up that are not initially planned so cash equivalent resources are often needed. Stealing on this level would seem sort of obvious you are going to get caught. 

Notice they also engaged in violation of the consulting policy and used private labs for personal gain. It appears they were on a roll with the self enrichment. Either way, its a good catch.

Former chief scientist for GTRI pleads guilty to conspiring to defraud Georgia Tech and the CIA

Morgan Stanley Predicts Soft Landing Economy 2023 (A Few Thoughts....)

Morgan Stanley came out with a few insights this year. A Soft Landing for the U.S. Economy?

Key Takeaways:

• Morgan Stanley Research believes the U.S economy can achieve a “soft landing,” which means slowing economic growth while avoiding a recession. 
• The U.S. housing cycle, income and spending trends, a stable labor market and receding inflation point to a positive outcome. 
• However, banking-sector turmoil and a resulting credit squeeze still pose some recession risk.

A few thoughts.....

This is year is interesting because we are a few years past COVID but about at the point where companies have implemented long-term strategies post-Pandemic that include a more online Digital Era approach. Unemployment is low, interest is high but declining, investment market is rising, and the risk of recession is declining. My biggest focus is whether there will be a growth spurt toward the end of 23' and beginning of 24'. There was an economic boon after COVID which would indicate the theory was sort of correct on that front but now it is nearly 3 years later so that is a different story. A small recession might be expected but unless something odd happens we should see some growth. If lucky significant growth.

The other question that I keep in the back of my head is whether or not we are actually going through an economic platform shift?  (I don't know, its possible just like the printing press) If so we would have a fast ramp up of technology and innovation as fundamentals tied to new infrastructure coming online (i.e. Digital Era Renaissance. 2023/4 would be sort of where we see whole new lines of technology come out. Its not immediate but over a short period of time.). There is some indication of this in the increase in AI, EV. online education, fiber optics, cell phones, semiconductors, etc... Just like how the Internet produced significant wealth, the digital era will better blend these two planes of commerce to create faster innovation (i.e. small electric commuter carts, stronger space travel with new batteries, or new fuels. I still like the idea of electric molectular solar propulsion.  I'm being a little silly about it. Sorry. 😓 )

The other things that might be of interest is how the numbers act under different economic assumptions of the digital versus physical world assumptions of the Industrial Era. They use different assumptions and therefore there are going to be adjustments in how these numbers represent digital items versus physical items. Basically, many of these theories would need to be tweaked and adjusted as well as the development of whole new economic theories tied to the age. The theories must change when technology creates new human behavioral patterns of buying, interacting, and engage with the environment. (I'm sorry I'm a little out there in left field but who knows what we find. Most theories are only partially correct. That is why we debate them.)

How Law Enforcement Can Enhance or Detract From an Economic Development (Cluster)?

Clusters will likely be an important part of national growth going forward as they are tools to spur national innovation. Clusters can be seen as an interconnected network of different types of activities/transactions where they influence, enhance, or detract from each other to create a ripe economic environment for innovation and growth. Ensuring each of the inputs is functioning well is helpful for the health of the whole system which must maximize the return on the resource expenditures.

Where there is alignment between elements we are likely to see improvement in economic performance and outcomes through equilibrium/optimization/synergy. Law enforcement, justice systems, etc. are part of that discussion because they lay at the institutional foundations (societal-institution assumptions/contracts) that allow commerce to occur in relative safety and security (i.e. physical and economic existence. One might relate them to life & liberty. ).

First let us look at this very informative but slightly older article posted by Harvard that discusses some of the fundamentals of cluster lines of scientific development. Clusters and Economic Policy: Aligning Public Policy with the New Economics of Competition 

(Let me say I found an excellent discussion and analysis of economic clusters that predates mine by like 5 years or something. I'm curious going forward as I finish my how similar/different they are. There is a good chance that I likely read some of this work at some point and integrated it into my own. However, there are likely going to be aspects that will be unique so that will be interesting.) 

Positive Contributions of Policing:

Strong policing that has societal trust and adapts upward in performance will set the foundations for growth. For example, if you have lots of ordinance issues and blight that detracts from visitors, the local law enforcement can enforce codes and zoning restrictions in a way that has a positive effect on economic activities. The same can be said for drug use, theft, violence and other types of behaviors. You will see in this study that crime has an impact on the local economy and damages local credit worthiness. We might further conclusion that effective policing reduces crime and improves the economic underpinnings. Crime and credit: The empirical study of how crime affects credit ratings of large U.S. cities

The Negative Contributions of Poor Policing

When there are elements that are in misalignment between law enforcement and society there will be consequences. The Economics Policing discusses funding for departments and some of the challenges of how relying on ticketing often focuses more on minorities when compared to others. The same discriminatory behavioral multiplier would likely exist in clanship and/or hyper political-extremist environments where some are given benefits not available to everyone (i.e. two systems of justice where the application of law may be different. For example, providing constructive criticism of inappropriate behaviors could lead to violations of freedom of speech through the use of 3rd world intimidation tactics. Power over dynamics might be a more likely tool when dealing with people of religious minorities so as to create violations of freedom of religion. The two systems are based not on the actual laws, or the intent of law, but on the application of law as a symptom of biased filtered processes that quickly come to erroneous conclusions. A single officer could be addressed through training and/or removal but a departmental default would likely need an overhaul with greater outside oversight.). 

It would be fair to say that any intentional or unintentional discriminatory multiplier would likely have an adverse impact on local relationships and economic outcomes (This is one argument of potential likelihood not a justification. There are studies that show various aspects of that problem. One might denote this in a future formula as DM, or something similar, that can be measured and then determine to what extent that multiplier impacts decision making. A little like 'Fairness, Equality, and Power in Algorithmic Decision Making'). 

Thinking About What It Means

Policing can be a positive or a negative contributor to the economy (In my case I'm looking at clusters). Where it is done well it will likely improve the economic environment by ensuring the safety and security that allows commerce to function unimpeded. That will include fair and impartial treatment of our fellow citizens. Where it has adversarial relationships it might become less functional and/or less aligned to the needs of the greater society and thus incur economic penalties. A closed system without community engagement and/or without trust leading to lower economic activity (The case for that isn't really built here, but its the possibility.) We might say that human capital development relies on positive societal engagement and environmental prompting for performance. Policing can have a positive or negative impact on the environment based on their ability to meet the needs of society and the greater economic system.

(A couple of quick observations I have seen thus far. Policing that is highly engaged in community activities and maintains high standards seems to have more trust levels. I have seen in at least one case where policing becomes more squad like with its own rules and codes it creates barriers with the public. At the same time, there may be other issues with clannism and racial-religious undertones to behaviors and that can cause significant derailment in decision making. Thus, stronger department policies and redesigning aspects of the system may be helpful. The ultimate issue is to what? For this we should look to locations where policing has high community trust and performance. Sometimes we have to adjust the metrics. Briefly I think increased transparency/independent review of complaints might be helpful as well as greater training and diversity of recruitment. There is a lot lot more to this so we can discuss in the future.)

(I have a disclaimer here. I have a few reasons why I'm writing about this. Anytime we can improve a system, especially an area that has received significant concerns, we should set upon that path to be proactive. Also, there are beneficiaries and victims to good and bad policing. I have seen police do wonderful things and I have seen them mock our values and give a free pass to dangerous behaviors. So we want to create systems that encourages positive growth in a way that raises up good officers and curbs poor behaviors. To improve a system we should think about its wider influence in our society and our long term prospects. It is only one factor out of many factors that influence a successful nation. It is an important factor so we should consider any tweaks, adjustments or improvements when they appear to be beneficial. I support shared sense of direction and universal conception of democracy. I'm a light right Republican, not a politician, but certainly think working with diverse perspectives from major political perspectives is helpful to national development. i.e. the purpose of the blog. Probably not important in the grand scheme of things. 🤔🤷‍♂️)

Fitness, Lifestyle and the eBike

The guy putting my seat and handlebars
 on nice place in OB

Not everything on this blog is going to be hard and heavy. We can talk about fitness because we do have issues with health and ensuring we have a healthy population. Likewise, our public servants and our military need new recruits that are in good physical condition. Fitness and nutrition lead to greater overall health (I can also say it is another factor to human capital development but let us save that for another date.)

Fitness can come from changing one's life to include new activities. For example, I used to rent a car while traveling to my boat but then realized that because of the typically nice whether and the many pathways on the coast, that an eBike makes sense. Considering the cheapest car I can rent is $450 not including gas, I bought my eBike for $430 and put an additional $100 into the seat and handlebars (It came with the worlds worst seat.)

Instead of driving I ride my bike so I'm improving my fitness and saving money each time I come out from car rentals. There are a few drawbacks if you need to go far but this can be augmented by hitching a ride with someone. If you need to go somewhere far for a little I think you would want to rent and put the mileage on there as well. Considering the cost of an additional car, insurance, parking, maintenance overall the eBike is the better deal.

I think a lot more cities are going to switch to electrical small vehicles and bikes as a way to remove congestion and help the environment. Smaller roads may also be needed. Longer distances will still require access to highways and use of cars but ultimately that is something that can be fixed in the future as well. 

Some benefits in this case of the eBike....

-Significantly less cost

-Greater health

-Help environment

-Greater awareness of local activities

-Simplifying of life.

Some detractors I found from the eBike....

-Sucks when its cold or rainy.

-Long distance is impossible.

-Longer commute times.

-Risks from drivers.

These guys/gals are motivated because with an eBike you just click the button if your tired......