Friday, May 5, 2023

April 2023 BLS Unemployment Rate Drops to 3.4%: Types of Jobs and Where Counts

Reviewing the economic data just released by BLS April 2023 we still see the economy is growing and in turn there are some industries that are going to hire more and some going to hire less. The World Economic Forum indicated that we are going to have some shifts in employment. I believe that to be true as well with a few adjustments. We might think about how to train and add people to the jobs that are core to our functioning and have the highest returns for us as a nation.

I'm looking below to just keep up with the information and trends. I cut and pasted the highlights. Good on mining as we need to have access to materials. I would also believe we need for security reasons to have a functioning system even if we end up obtaining much of the bulk mining from overseas (Yes I prefer mining in the U.S.. but also hedging the diversity for supply chain issues.).

Its interesting because we are in budget discussions and we are adding certain types of jobs in government and social assistance. I'm curious what types of jobs and where. There may be a good reason for it but in my mind anytime we improve government efficiency and effectiveness we can reroute positions into  higher paying market driven jobs (All of that depends on the types of jobs. You can see that in the BLS Glossary)

Any entity can improve its focus and improve its best use of taxpayer money. There really is no type of organization that can't have occasional overhauls, updating, and review of internal processes to make them more efficient. Every business and entity will have extra things creep into the processes in order to expand job security, convenience, and solve problems (Its normal but might need a review every 5 years). Investigating the Relationship between Process Management and Organizational Culture: Literature Review and Research Agenda

-The number of persons jobless less than 5 weeks decreased by 406,000 to 1.9 million in April 

- professional and business services (+43,000)

 health care increased by 40,000 in April

-Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 253,000 in April,

-Employment in leisure and hospitality continued to trend up in April +31,000),

-mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction rose by 6,000 

-social assistance added 25,000 jobs

-Employment in financial activities increased by 23,000

-Government employment continued its upward trend in April (+23,000)

In April, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 16 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $33.36.

This is solid financial analysis article by Financial Times entitled, 'US economy adds 253,000 jobs in sign of labour market strength'

April Unemployment Rate April 2023 

Michigan Might Gain 56K Jobs: Human Capital Improvements Needed

Michigan is seeking to be competitive in the auto market and retain/gain EV manufacturing. I think this is a wise approach considering we lost some of that manufacturing power to other countries. While these were short sighted opportunities of the times they led to our current struggles. I think we have an opportunity to capitalize on the emergence of our nation into the Digital Era (Sorry....silly idea.) 

In a best case EV scenario MI. could add 56,000 additional direct, indirect, and induced jobs. In a low competitiveness case MI. would lose 47,000 fewer direct, indirect, and induced jobs in 2030. The report provides an in depth analysis of the potential EV Market. A Road Map for Michigan's Electric Vehicle Future.

You will want to look at the illustration on page 9. When you add jobs you also add taxes and consumer spending. The more a locality can attract, retain and use wisely those resources, the more likely they will maximize opportunities as they unfold. This is why success is a habit through using time, resources and energy wisely to achieve goals.

Here is a fairly strong discussion on a few other things that can happen. Michigan could gain 56,000 electric vehicle jobs – but it’ll need workers.

What I'm going to say is that we should be attracting high technology talent as well as grooming new talent within the state and the nation at large. We also found a similar report by the World Economic Forum that 25% of jobs will change in the near future. That is a significant shift. Expect the possibility of a level of market labor disruptions and transitional issues.

The human capital issue keeps raising its head but we are not really grasping why encouraging the development of our people, applying our laws fairly, and ensuring we are maximizing our human potential is central to our national health and future growth prospects. Talent pool is not only a draw for investment but is what improves the transactions that lead to improved corporate performance. The same principles that apply to growing companies do in part impact the performance of states. 

Banking Crisis: Looks Like Regional Banks Finding Footing

We have some commotion in the banking industry and hopefully that will be resolved soon. We again are dealing with transitions and changes in the market. The interest rate hike didn't really cause the issue so much as to rip the band aid off of what appears to have been an ongoing issue. Sometimes when we put pressure on an system that has issues it causes ripples in the market. There should be an adaptive stage that encourages these banks to adjust their processes to reduce these risks going forward.(Depending on who you talk to it can come from market pressures, regulation pressures or a little of both.)

PacWest stock jumps 70% as regional banks rebound on Friday, but still down sharply for the week

You may also find that there could be some short selling predatory behaviors as well as potential mismanagement within the organization (Potential). It will take some time for researchers to go in there and see what happened so let us wait a minute. Short selling has caused some chaos in other places as well. I'm not sure if there is a short-term solution to these pile on investing issues.

 (On another side noteIf any researchers want a pro bono project to fill their evenings being nerdy I have a potential corruption problem in another location. One really can't say until they dig into it but I will say that it looks pretty legit from what I can tell. It could be a good project if you have the back ground skill, justice interest, and have some prior experience. We have a responsibility to society.)

The Way In Which We Live: Helping Police Help Themselves (That Includes Reform)

Allegory of Good Government
Ambrogio Lorenzetti 1338
Who wants someone to narrate to them, tell them who they are, and create the story. So I encourage police to start the conversation on how they are going to reform to ensure they are fulfilling their missions to the community and to the nation. While its just words in the wind at the moment I do believe that our capacity to draw strong human capital will be based in part, among many parts in the ability of our police to act with integrity and the wider system to enforce that integrity if there is default. 

That of course does not take away from the good officers doing the right thing but that is a just criticism that moves beyond those actually engaged in corruption to those that have not reported the crime or the system that struggles to act upon those crimes. To many, its more important to protect their homogeneous ethnic and racial clan then it is to protect the general will of the public. Role and responsibility confusion.

When I was younger we used to have this belief that policing was something we wanted to be and it was a noble occupation. We could be firefighters and could be the "good guys" which we associated with police. That has become increasingly difficult to differentiate because not all police are good (not all bad) and there are certain aspects of the system that take no responsibility when social contracts are broken. Notice kids don't play good cop police as much as they once did (Its a unscientific but important observation).

What I have seen over the past few years should offend our leadership and sting the souls of judges, politicians, religious leaders and general people of moral conscious. However, that doesn't appear to be the case. What does appear to have happened is that there has been an attempt to cover violations of state, national and international laws in an effort to "protect ones own". The official system is trying to placate/justify the shadow system (Its not a good third world place to be).

When these systems become tools (I'm talking about the corrupt individuals and the general incompetence of the system to fix itself) to hate and third world cleansing we have to wonder at what point will a concept called justice come into play (Yes, I do understand how justice is misused against minorities, children, and those who rightly criticize corruption. People like us are called everything to delegitimize and cover up crimes.). We then can look around at others and the world around us and see that there are a huge percentage of people complaining but are having their rights and protections circumvented (I can speculate why based on sociological changes, narrow recruitment lens, and political perversions of America's values)

My suggestion is to any system, organization, or black market is to take a good look at itself and take to heart the complaints of people. Try and develop the highest moral standards and ensure accountability not only on the officers who engaged in crimes but also those who they allowed others to engage in crimes (This isn't about punishment at all. This is about correction and accountability. Something corrupt systems avoid). I do recognize that I come from the lowest caste of society and laws become increasingly subjective when you are in this sociological stratification but sometimes, everyone once in a while, the 'little' people (including the marginalized) may have something important to say. 

*This is in honor to the victims of corruption (specifically two people) and those who were recipients of unAmerican and dishonorable police practices. This hopefully does not detract from the good officers trying to do the right thing but is a direct challenge to those who are more worried about their clan than their country or community. 

Thursday, May 4, 2023

The U.S. is Running Out of Monkeys for Research

The U.S. is running out of research monkeys. As you likely know monkeys, due to their similarities with humans (I don't see it! How does one make that association? 🤷) are often used in research. Except now we have a monkey shortage. 'The U.S. Is Running Out of Research Monkeys'

Thought it was interesting research news.  There are some opposed to the use of monkeys. I get it! If there are alternatives we should use them. I'm not sure if you can completely get rid of their use at this time but I suspect there are places where alternatives would be much better. 

Why Our Justice System Will Begin to Adjust (Global Pressure and Foot Dragging)

No system can go on forever without some type of change. Whether your a company, a government entity, or even a person we all must grow and change. When we fail to change and we are harming people in the process, we run risks of low institutional support, we will run out of track because the train kept going at full speed when the most effective path has long ago changed. I believe we are coming to a place where change will be an important part of the ability of institutions to maintain long term public support (Remember that rapid changes in technology and interconnectivity will influence institutions that are not aligned to the goals of that generation.).

There is an interesting piece provided by the World Bank and how institutions are likely going to be a big part of growth. World Bank Institutional Strength and Support. Developing strong institutions will lead to easing of transitional tension as people trust those institutions to have their best interests in mind. While some of our institutions are functioning well (not include the politics that are put on them) we do have problems in others that are left unrectified.

I do recognize that when we think about this from an ethnocentric political perspective the first thing is to condemn with great harshness any criticism of any kind (Its also why we now have this problem in the first place. Even intellectuals have to wonder if they should provide constructive advice or not. it can be risky sometimes. ðŸ¤·). That leads to intentional barriers that insulate against reasonable and just opinions that change is a helpful criteria of the long term health of the entire justice system (or any system for that matter. See Harvard article on Trust as the Secret to Adaptable Organizations and sort of compare that with Public Perceptions Justice and 45% Trust Rate some ideas U.S. Courts Preserving Trust  and how big data is going to sort of create a potentially embarrassing situation for courts across the land. White House Police Accountability. This is also why I encourage proactivity in governance problems versus waiting until its a bigger problem.). 

While this study is related to companies we find that short term thinking limits our growth in many ways. This why we should encourage longer term approach (over the horizon thinking) to problems versus short term power over approaches that have crept into our conversations and in turn stifled the probabilities of stronger future performance and resolution of looming issues. See Short and Long Termism Outcomes.

I'm a 100% supporter of police because we have no real viable and practical options at this time. Even if we were transitioning I would still have support for good officers because they acted nobly. In that support, I say we need to revamp the system so that it is not insulated from correcting its mistakes and holding to account corrupt and immoral behaviors. This is necessary because while the vast majority 75-80% (might be less) of officers are honorable people, there is still a huge percentage who have no/little respect for the law (or anyone else).

Who speaks for those who have no voice and those who have few rights? We can't just keep talking about the constitution, patriotism and other things if we are struggling to live a full version of that within society. We have work to do to ensure that our American ideals apply across the board to all Americans. We cannot have different applied laws for different people. Our nation is built off of the belief that free men/women determine their own fate and have inherent value (Corruption is a different type of unAmerican belief that enriches self/clan at the expense of society. I have seen this lack of accountability for giving free passes to potentially criminal behavior because of social, ideological, racial, and religious oriented associations. While these behaviors are likely nationally and internationally illegal within the context in which they were committed, they might be seen by some as "acceptable" because of misalignment of values. I wish I could say something different here or say that isn't at least partly true. I'm not sure what the end result is but I'm doing it in honor of two people who were victims of that behavior. I'm saddened it occurred, we allowed it to occur and then struggled with justice afterward. It changes ones perspective on the need for institutional change. No amount of parked cars, following home, false allegations or targeting will now change that for me until there is meaningful adjustment. I drew my line to protect my kids. I will continue to support my community and the good officers within it but I will not sugar coat the behaviors of well connected homogeneous individuals. My oaths preclude to not do this, and I have an obligation to the victims as well as the next generation.)

Its hard to explain the economic impact of not living and fulfilling our institutional missions and oaths. While to some the moral conscious violations alone might be enough (internally motivated people) most others want the financial cost (externally motivated people) to make any changes. In other words, "What's in it for them to change?" Let us move forward and think about some of the incentives of waiting to long to adjust to the needs of the general population.

The immediate answer is "not much". They are temporarily insulated from the consequences and failures of forthright thinking. However, that is a relatively short time. World pressures are going to force the U.S. to make major changes to maintain its competitive position.  Failure to maximize on Human Capital is part of that necessary adjustment (Remember that belated late interest at the ballot box). While the super connected and "elite" of society will try to dominate the conversation by pushing their somewhat insulated perspective they will not be able to effectively do that because everyone else has a bigger steak in the game now (I think intellectuals, scientists and others will have a bigger influence in decision making to balance out magical thinking with occasional alternatives. They can be wrong too so its an informal negotiation between evidence, salability, and practicality). 

Consider a few articles that indicate there are members within those institutions that recognize the need for change and have been working toward our national and/or humanity oriented goals. DOJ Police Integrity (lack of accountability within the U.S. system), UN International Police Corruption (notice difficulties in recruitment, training, accountability) and White House Approach to Corruption (Its helpful but without action its more or less just something posted for PR purposes. That doesn't neglect the times, hopefully many, that good things happened from having the policy as guide.) (Let me add we can change this for the better but it takes leadership commitment in protecting our fellow Americans; especially those with no voice and quickly sidelined.)

Todays young people have lots of education, tech knowledge, opinions, and are willing to challenge. They also lack opportunities their grandparents had, ideas/concepts bubble forward, and concerns spread quickly within their networks. Justice is central to our ability to maintain shared values and perspectives and our current generation has failed to fully update the system to ensure it fulfills its most important missions. It has goal confusion (Some want justice and a few want their clans, groups, friends, race, religion, etc. to have preferential treatment.)

Here is my suggestion. We should start making reasonable and positive bi-partisan changes that ensure the system has a basic standard of integrity (Most officers and departments have the right skills but some have been compromised). Once that is established, we can then think about methods that improve the effectiveness of policing along with increasing public support and transparency (In the modern world we use formally trained police but from a species standpoint we need enforcement of certain rules and values. Thus getting people involved means better ensuring the outcomes are in alignment with the needs of the people by requiring incremental adjustments that it works for society and not other way around.)

So the criticism can be something positive and a chance to diversify and enhance our policing (As long as we stay away from brow beating answers and daylight acts of intimidation.). This is why we need people to join our police, get involved in helping their communities, and make the changes necessary for it to function well. We can do that from within the system by encouraging the young to take service as important avenue to their development (Just remember that Code Blue is less important than the codes of Red, White & Blue). That will also create some pressure so the external and entrenched stakeholders must consider the needs of the officers and not an agenda or their reelection (You should try the dishwasher integrity training program I think I'm going to a good try. It doesn't pay well but you can at least hold your head high! Freedom of Speech comes with lots of unfree stuff but it is those who stand up for right that make changes. At least that is what we read in our history books. I wonder if its true in real life? 🤔). It is also an opportunity to adjust the system to address the most important concerns of the American people (Not only those who work within or benefit financially or politically from it.)

I'm a supporter of the police and the population. I do not see the same differences between races and religions that many other see and use as anchor points in their decisions. To me, our American youth are important eagle eggs that when groomed can be a contributing factors to American redevelopment and reemergence (Others may not agree but they also make short term choices so there is some misalignment between words and behaviors. I think this more or less is a political problem and the need to say things to get support but then not really worry about whether they have improved the total system in some way). To some, they are more worried about the color and which luxury nest those eggs are placed than the inherent value/worth of each of those eggs. That is just my minority opinion, there are probably others who disagree and will ensure only their narrative counts (Reread again to understand the dangers of narrow insight and decision making anchors. Restart from beginning if confused.). We have more responsibility to the next generation at this important juncture in America's competitive positional history then any other social or financial considerations. I mean hypothetically if we want to build/re-build/maintain a great nation.

Let us turn the page in our shared American history.....

Risks to the U.S. Dollar and the Costs Associated: How do we maintain?

There is one thing that I agree with Niall Ferguson, Stanford University Hoover Institute Senior Fellow, that the US dollar will still be the primary currency. The change will be gradual until it reaches a certain point and I suspect then it will decline faster as another option becomes seen as just as stable. Consider the advantages and risks of governance on the dollar.

America sells its stability to the world and the dollar is seen as an extension of that trust in stability. It helps to be a consistently strong economy with effective governance. However, we have risks in our governance and stability now that didn't exist in full display five years ago (Some of those problems existed they just didn't rear their head yet). 

There are advantages to having the world economy use the dollar as the standard medium of exchange. Business becomes easier allowing for more international business contracts. Our costs of borrowing and exchange are less which means more business deals (I call them transactions).  Our economic and political influence is stronger. With all of that great stuff you now see why China wants their own currency to lead.

The first thing we need to do is get serious in governance. We have issues such as knock down drag out political fights (required blind button pressing), mistrust in our justice system, extremism (nearly downing our entire national government. We don't hear much about it anymore but there are still elements out there.), and a general failure to adjust due to encampment and misalignment of central values. 

Its not all over of course because there are other factors that the nations of competitive dollars face. We also are adaptive but reactive people. Meaning we wait and wait and wait to fix glairing issues and then when we finally understand the importance of a problem and begin to work together we scrape together a solution. I believe if we started proactively to solve problems we would be in a stronger future situation (ok sometimes proactive but mostly reactive.).

The news is not all bleak. We will change and we will adjust and the U.S. has a great chance to rejuvenate into the Digital Era. There is movement now to get people to work together and find solutions. That is what is going to make some of the biggest difference in our options and outcomes. To ensure we don't get into this situation again we probably should think more about what type of leadership we need and how we are selecting some of our leaders. We need the best and brightest to mix up the connected opportunity criteria. 'Integrity Is an Important Concept for Leaders and National Institutions'

A few solid pieces on the value of the U.S. dollar.

In US Dollar Share of Global Foreign Exchange Reserves Drops to 25-Year Low we find the U.S. Dollar beginning to decline as emerging economies look to diverse their holdings. 

On the bottom of the Federal Reserve report you can see some of the challenges to the U.S. dollar. 
'The International Role of the U.S. Dollar'