Is the Economy Reaccelerating? Manufacturing Show Improvements and Inflation Coming Down

According to Chris Williamson, S&P Global Chief Business Economist and Kim Forrest, Bokeh Capital Partners Founder & CIO the economy may not be as bad as originally thought. It doesn't seem they are addressing the recession question directly but indirectly through an improved outlook. There is some indication that data massaging has improved the outlook.

 

What I Think Freedom Looks Like and Why I Oppose Extremism

Being culturally aware and knowing lots of people helps us understand the shared similarities of people across different cultures and backgrounds. The one thing that seems to separate good people from bad people is a concept called empathy. It is the ability to see others just as valuable as one may see themselves. The worst I have seen are extremist leaning who view others as less worthy and not entitled to the same rights as they lavish on themselves. The best of I have seen are positive oriented empathetic people go above and beyond what is expected to help others. 

First, let us be clear anyone from any race or religion can be an extremist. There are Christian, Muslim, Jewish, Hindu, and just about any other religion that can have some level of extremism (Its not based in the religion but the psychology of the person and or a group using religious or ideological justifications.). There appears to be a certain percentage of people who are willing to run in that direction based on misperceptions of their own value and in turn the value of others. The world they cling to is a distorted one and it is often a disruptive to the peace and tranquility of others.

However, of that distorted subsection there is a smaller but noticeable percentage that will use intimidation, potential violence, and other illicit behaviors to harm those they see as different. No one is immune to such behaviors when groups are targeted (minorities, intellectuals, children, people who rightful correct, etc.) laws are thwarted, fights are encourage, self-enrichment and all the major sins become justifiable. The goal of punishing others for perceived wrongs at the expense of any check and balance in conscious or law is important and interesting concept that indicates deeper psychological catalysts beyond the ideology. 

We don't often see it this way but the goal of extremist is to limit access to things that are seen as important to societies that rely on positive civilian participation. For example, governance/voting, societal participation, worship, opportunity, a sense of safety and security, etc. They do so using group pressure, uncivilized behaviors, hate speech/defamation, and if necessary misapplication of laws designed to ensure group dominance over others (typically minorities or those of different religions or political perspectives). 

In my limited perceptions of what America should look like, we should strive for a universal democracy as a layer of progression. Its not a lofty radical conception but what we are destined to when leadership starts rowing in the same direction to build a healthy, adaptable and high functioning society. While I can go into many reasons that can be supported by research it is not the intent of this article. its just to raise the idea and argument. We need a singular vision for the nation that appeals to Republicans and Democrats alike.

I support a free people who can practice their religion in any way they want, born the way God created them (whatever perception of God) a separation between Church (Church, Mosque, Temple, Synagogue, etc.) and state so we all may live and be free as a people with maximum liberty against the protective layer of justice. Not everyone believes in those central American conceptions based rooted in the founding of the country.

Americans should be lovers of freedom of speech and religion, lovers of the intellectual exploration, lovers of developing opportunity, lovers of civic engagement, lovers of children, and lovers of community health and people. To me America should be the society that emulates the values we want the rest of the world to believe in and resonate with. As we struggle with extremism we should keep in mind that America as built by many people and not just the people who look like and worship like the person in the mirror. 

This isn't a specific comment to any entity but a broader conception of freedom for general consumption. One in which I strive and encourage others to strive. In edit process.

Escanaba City Council Meeting (April 20, 2023) OPRA, Taxes, Funding and ATVs (Not Sure if it Includes Golf Carts)

This meeting was very short but packed with lots of decisions and information. While I love watching the county's 4 hour meetings instead of doing other important things in my life, I do recognize the beauty of short and sweet. In this case, I still had enough time left over to consider cleaning my garage, going grocery shopping, paint a masterpiece, or write about the nature of economy and society. In this community of retirees and perhaps soon to be a younger economic draw, government was delivered quickly. 

You can read the Escanaba's April 21 Notes/Agenda (I like how they put the info up for public consumption. It keeps people informed and helps me so I don't have to sort of write everything down to understand it. I try to be accurate so if you see a mistake just post a comment.)

Property Rehabilitation Act

-No unfinished business. 

-Fiscal Budget to be discussed May 4th. 

-Marketplace to city dock Sept 24th. Beer Tent, Food, etc.  Labor Day Event. 15 bids. Approval of bid by Sticky Fingers of Gladstone. 

 Ordinance No. 1260 – Allow Side-by-Side UTV Operation on City Streets. An interesting discussion. They were discussing this last year I believe. I think golf carts would be cool. Save on parking.  We might need a no jumping ordinance.

-Money for parking lot. 

-$37 Million in total expenditures. 17 mills with no ask for more. 

-The city needs to draw new revenue. This is why I say its important to attract new entrepreneurs, businesses, and investment. I say this because it does three things that include new revenue/development, new young people, and new infrastructure. It also can open the door to other businesses and activities considering the area. Be a pro-business start-up, vacation, and investment hub. There are ways to do that but that may require rewriting webpages to attract new investment, an investment contact and someone who can guide them to buildings, grants and other resources they need. 

-Disabled veterans exceptions have risen.

-Lots of info in the agenda on cost of utilities which appear reasonable. 

-Policing is 48% of city fund appropriations.

-Marina revenue spiked 2020

-They really did a great job with the charts and being transparent with the information. This is what you want to see. Within a few days the agenda is up and it is complete. Check it out for yourself. 

-Delta Schoolcraft Community Labor Council will be placing and maintaining a monument to labor. 

-New city attorney

-Charitable gaming license from state of Michigan for Escanaba Wrestling Club. 

-Obsolete building. Local taxes can be exempt for 12 years. 1/2 rate for state 6 years. 27 OPRA in the area. You can read more about Obsolete Property Rehabilitation Act (OPRA) . Interestingly there are other programs that can help the city attract revitalization interest. While this article by the Citizen's Research Council sheds a little negative light on one city it does recognize they can be used to positive benefit when done well. They further indicate its a mixed bag but it has worked in some places. With new interest coming into the area and the need to revitalize downtown my suggestion is to maximize these programs in focused areas and really give a big city coordinated push between multiple programs to improve our community real estate assets downtown. That should of course be included with some interest in attracting new business, investment, and vacationers. Putting a packet together of different benefits the city can put together to lure businesses can be helpful. If we can do it for free by getting banks, state grants, etc. to create a investor boost package that might also be nice in creating a honey pot for investment Pooh Bears. Read the somewhat critical article but read closely and you will understand why I included it as a person in support of OPRA, and other program use.  Detroit Foregoes Large Sums of Property Tax Revenues with its Use of Business Tax Abatements. If you read the article you will realize the programs can be beneficial. Specifically I like some of the other programs the document lists that could be useful. As with all things take what you like and dump the rest. 

-Law enforcement torch run for Special Olympics. That is good stuff. 

-Vacancies of positions.

-Welcome bags and yellow 3X wheel bikes to get people downtown.

-Harbor tower upgrades (I thinking it would have been a nice casino hotel. )

-If your looking for things to do. They were talking about clean up and Facebook. Tried to figure out what they meant but you can go on FB and to the page Things to Do in Escanaba Face Book. Cleaning up is probably a good idea with tourists...and keeping our town looking sparkling clean.

S&P Global April Preliminary Release Indicates April Economy on Upswing

Check this out. S&P Global shows broad based upswing in their preliminary release on the economy for April. S&P April Release.  The economy is showing stronger signs than initially thought. 

Quoted Key findings: 

Flash US PMI Composite Output Index(1) at 53.5 (March: 52.3). 11-month high. 

Flash US Services Business Activity Index(2) at 53.7 (March: 52.6). 12-month high.

Flash US Manufacturing Output Index(4) at 52.8 (March: 50.2). 11-month high. 

Flash US Manufacturing PMI(3) at 50.4 (March: 49.2). 6-month high.

Conceptual Framework on How Societies and Companies Adapt

Source Santa Fe Institute

There is something called the collective adaptive framework that helps us understand how societies adapt to problems. We just went through a Pandemic so many nations are studying how their society adapted to that particular crisis (We should keep spreading information private for many reasons). Group adaptation has been studied for a long time but national and societal adaptation is something sort of new. We were just missing lots of the information and didn't have a good framework to measure multiple disconnected and disjointed information using different scales with little valid connection.

We often thought about those things in separated categories of science, with limited information, and often not great records. Now the information is more at our fingertips and there is digital footprints everywhere if one were to sort of hunt them down and have legal access to the information (Notice I said legal. That is why hacking is in generally immoral as it circumvents certain rights and laws. Its an exploitation of private information for typically financial or conflictual gain. The same can be said for the misuse of surveillance equipment. i.e. cameras pointed in a window, etc. From a root moral question it is just generally wrong to eavesdrop, lie or steal so this would fall into that ethical category. Thus, certain actions should be illegal so as to protect against data exploitation. We might know that but then it gets really complex because of political and rhetorical legal questions.)

Ok sorry I digress.....

Societal adaptation could be anything such as the Pandemic, social values, extremism, higher utility costs, global warming, patriotism, first responder recruitment issues, etc. Typically I think it would need to be a large enough and generalized problem to be worthy of a study. Once you know the research problem, you can create the question and then find the metrics to gain the best answer you can. 

Notice in the study how they look at problem structures, social integration strategies, social environment. It appears they are using different lenses to try and view the problem holistically. Its not going to be perfect because you have to cut the data somewhere. We are just moving into the big data systems now so eventually someone will build a framework for 100's of categories of data input to understand a problem (The algorithms will always need to be triple checked because that is where the data finds its meaning. Algorithms strive for perfect accuracy...but they never are. They are fictitious to represent real life events/phenomenon in numbers/numeral form. No one could build a formula so complex as to capture all possibilities. Thus, we use models of the most likely scenarios within our current awareness. The algorithm would be the mathematical model of what this data may mean as a representation of the main measurements that represent an actual phenomenon.)

P.S. I added companies because large companies would have their own adaptation behaviors. That would be complex for global companies working with different rules and laws in different places. 

Study presents new conceptual framework for how societies adapt to change

Detroit Economic Club: Stuart Hoffman, SVP & Senior Economic Advisor at PNC Discusses Slower Inflation and Challenging Year

The Detroit Economic Club has all types of insightful speeches. Stuart Hoffman, SVP & Senior Economic Advisor at PNC Financial Services Group Inc. presented the speech to the Detroit Economic Club (DEC) . It was pretty good so I took some notes so as to share them at some point (Of course after I clean them up a little. I'm just trying to understand why the U.S. is lagging and what might sort of fix that on a root level. I just theorize as I grocery shop so don't really listen to me yet. Most of what come up with sort of makes sense, has research support, but I need to finish off polishing it now that I know it could potentially work. How that specifically happens is a difficult question because it is more of a practitioner issue requiring specialized knowledge. I'm just good at the structure and abstraction. Most of the time I'm in the ball park. I mean I could learn the individual parts but it wouldn't necessarily get a good return on the investment of time. )

They mentioned economic modeling. You can read something similar 'Mathematically Modeling Market Projections'

-Unemployment Low. Good sign.

-Bigger pay and opportunity to move companies.

-Mild recession.

-China and Japan less inflation.

-A couple banks failed because they were taking big risks.

-Feds expect to raise rates once and then need to cut rates early next year. Push out of recession.

-2/3 stocks 1/3 bond and a little more cash equivalent. (Good advice)

-Chip shortage on cars.

-2024 will be an upswing (Sort of in line with my projection. In 2020 when I made it, lots of things happened. I'm curious of the time period of 23/24 transition.)

-Mentoring was helpful. 

-Many will return to work in office most of time.

-If U.S. defaults on debt it would be all hell breaks lose on economy. We would never have seen it in 250 years.

-The stock market will punish the inability to manage debt. (It seems so hard but its about going forward. If one is to extend there should be some realignment of our programs specifically to our national goals like any organization. That doesn't mean throw out certain social supports. It means we have to look at everything and see what is creating either a net positive economically and/or net positive on life satisfaction which improves the environment for personal and economic growth. Treading water doesn't help much except as time to make decisions. Time is overall an expenditure. See Sustainable Economic Systems, Start-Up Economy DC Model, Social Investing, Sustainable Economy)

-The Pandemic causes further differences between the haves and have nots. Money is being too concentrated in fewer hands.

Delta County Board of Commissioners Statutory Meeting (4/11/2023): Settlements, Parks, Condos and Social Constructivism

St. Paul Preaching to Athens

(Picture of original tapestry by Raphael)

Raphael (Raffaello Sanzio) (Italian, 1515-6)

Royal Collection Trust

The value of Rhetorical Theory

Let us say that this was sort of an interesting meeting. You have different perspectives coming forward on issues and people are not afraid to share them. While there are differences I think they will eventually be resolved through shared perspective as long as we have strong communication skills that encourage understanding. To me, all governance is a type of negotiation and when we are open to hearing different points of view it helps to make better long term strategic buy in that leads to growth. Policies should seek to have maximum participation and in turn outcomes and further effort (General comments not specific to anyone in particular. However, if it seems to pertain it is good to think about it to enhance communication in the future.). 

Communication is very important in creating a shared sense of society. I came across an interesting study that discusses the concepts of empowering others through Express empathy and emotions, Manage the agenda, share Perspectives, share Observations, Work together to establish goals, Enable, Reach agreement, Summarize. 'Finding common ground: meta-synthesis of communication frameworks found in patient communication, supervision and simulation literature'

Notes: I try and be accurate but sometimes make mistakes so if you find one just post something in comments and I will adjust. 

-No public comment on agenda items

-Yes let us support our dispatchers. Nice. 

-Parks are online now.

-Bills voted to be paying bills.

-Purchase defined benefit for retirement.

-Recommendation to jury board.

-Lots of rentals at Pioneer.

-Discussion on sewer lines and connecting together. Discussion on state level. Outline of the new sewer line. Water will go in as well. From an economic standpoint this is central to improve the local infrastructure. There will be businesses that will rely on the new utilities.

-I like the concept of condo development. I also would believe downtown would be a good area to develop first with all of the apartments on top. After that, I think condo development would make sense. State funding on housing. Local rep and State Senator to take it down and discuss housing funding with MI.

-It looks like there are shut off notices to be paid for but there is some need for approve $2K to obtain the money early. Passes!!

-Opioid settlement in private discussion. Oh my...opioid lawsuit! Who sued who and what is going on? The closed meetings make me see if I can kind of guess what its about (Guessing. Ding!). I'm thinking a settlement from drug manufacturers to the county? Maybe a state settlement of some type? Then I found it online (typing, typing, drink coffee, typing in Google). Aha! $834K for Delta County. So I was right. The List with Delta County and also 'Michigan’s $81 Million Opioid Settlement Distribution Set to Begin' (Now what should we do with the money to maximize it? I would think it would be tied to opioid addiction treatment but if not lets consider putting it into attracting young entrepreneurs to the area and raising our digital footprint to draw investment and vacationers. ) What? $180K only!...that isn't as much as the document above said. 😣

-Concern about some social media comments, opposing White nationalism, and concepts of patriotism. (Here are my thoughts. We can put these youth to good work building a great community and nation. It takes all types with lots of different ideas. As long as we find constructive avenues for their grievances and concerns they become contributors in their own way. Our generation should not throw stones. Let us help them, with whatever nuggets of knowledge we gained to build a nation in which they can prosper. There is a difference between preaching and guiding. Its not the youths words that I'm thinking about, there is a deeper message, it is his spirit we should harness for the greater good. I'm not agreeing or disagreeing with anything he/they is/are saying because those are his/their opinions. I'm thinking more about how to turn a conflict into a win-win. Too bad we didn't have something we could take that spirit and help him apply it in a way that helps everyone. That is how we develop human capital and created shared cross-generational meaning. Listen deeper then the words and hear a person who maybe wants to be part of something important. This is what mentoring programs can do. Let us guide, not chastise. Would he be passionate about starting a philosophy and sociology program at the library? Maybe advocacy for something important? It is about finding what draws his interest and then providing the pathways in which he can master and apply those ideas in constructive Avenues. FYI: The board members maintained their composure which is great. Tough to do under those circumstances. )

-A comment on Jesus loving others. We should not shame others and treat each other well. Some discussion of the Golden Rule in there.

-Epidemic of gun violence. Concerned about gun sanctuary. Coherent speech.  (Our beloved Daily Press put an article out 'Youth stage protest at Delta County Board meeting')

-Another discussion on leadership expectations by a community member. I'm not agreeing or disagreeing with the message but the way in which it was delivered. I almost felt a poetic rhetorical prose within the speech. Ok...this kid needs to get into poetry, creative writing or something.  "...cling to a world that never existed...." it was good...a nice piece. (The opinion is his but the prose seem to have an artistic flavor to it.)

(Who says you can't get youth involved in poetry and politics?  I think he is eluding to a concept called Social Construction of Reality You may be more interested in the detailed article in the Grounded Theory Review entitled What is Social Constructionism?  It reminds me of the movie on the importance of language and how each of us contributes a verse to the greater understanding of the whole. As a people we are social constructing our understanding of our world, the way in which we want to live. This is all but a conversation that leads a socially negotiated understanding of how we collective perceive our reality.)

-A thank you for serving on the board and a criticism of the criticism. Bill of Rights. 2nd amendment support. A comment about going somewhere else didn't seem to go well.

-Information being handed should be in the agenda packet so as to not required to ask for information after. 

-Stolen power and stolen credit and assistance. A concern about media discussions.

-I agree that posting the information within a few days online would make a lot of sense. Comments on allowing people to be free so people listen.

"When the debate is lost, slander becomes the tool for the loser". -Socrates There is some debate on whether that is an actual quote of Socrates but its main point is not lost. There is a difference between debate and slander. I know, I have been on the receiving end of it and trust me its no fun. Especially if people just make up anything and throw it around like its factual mud slinging. If its an opinion then we should state its an opinion and if its a fact then that is different. Or what I think is helpful, "I know that I know nothing" Socrates

-A few comments on the pledge and veterans and respecting different opinions. Will have coffee if no one spits it. Discussion on 2nd amendment. No authority to tell sheriff and prosecuting attorney what to do or believe. 

End...watch the video yourself.