The blog discusses current affairs and development of national economic and social health through unique idea generation. Consider the blog a type of thought experiment where ideas are generated to be pondered but should never be considered definitive as a final conclusion. It is just a pathway to understanding and one may equally reject as accept ideas as theoretical dribble. New perspectives, new opportunities, for a new generation. “The price of freedom is eternal vigilance.”—Thomas Jefferson
Check this out. S&P Global shows broad based upswing in their preliminary release on the economy for April. S&P April Release. The economy is showing stronger signs than initially thought.
Quoted Key findings:
Flash US PMI Composite Output Index(1) at 53.5 (March: 52.3). 11-month high.
Flash US Services Business Activity Index(2) at 53.7 (March: 52.6). 12-month high.
Flash US Manufacturing Output Index(4) at 52.8 (March: 50.2). 11-month high.
Flash US Manufacturing PMI(3) at 50.4 (March: 49.2). 6-month high.
There is something called the collective adaptive framework that helps us understand how societies adapt to problems. We just went through a Pandemic so many nations are studying how their society adapted to that particular crisis (We should keep spreading information private for many reasons). Group adaptation has been studied for a long time but national and societal adaptation is something sort of new. We were just missing lots of the information and didn't have a good framework to measure multiple disconnected and disjointed information using different scales with little valid connection.
We often thought about those things in separated categories of science, with limited information, and often not great records. Now the information is more at our fingertips and there is digital footprints everywhere if one were to sort of hunt them down and have legal access to the information (Notice I said legal. That is why hacking is in generally immoral as it circumvents certain rights and laws. Its an exploitation of private information for typically financial or conflictual gain. The same can be said for the misuse of surveillance equipment. i.e. cameras pointed in a window, etc. From a root moral question it is just generally wrong to eavesdrop, lie or steal so this would fall into that ethical category. Thus, certain actions should be illegal so as to protect against data exploitation. We might know that but then it gets really complex because of political and rhetorical legal questions.)
Ok sorry I digress.....
Societal adaptation could be anything such as the Pandemic, social values, extremism, higher utility costs, global warming, patriotism, first responder recruitment issues, etc. Typically I think it would need to be a large enough and generalized problem to be worthy of a study. Once you know the research problem, you can create the question and then find the metrics to gain the best answer you can.
Notice in the study how they look at problem structures, social integration strategies, social environment. It appears they are using different lenses to try and view the problem holistically. Its not going to be perfect because you have to cut the data somewhere. We are just moving into the big data systems now so eventually someone will build a framework for 100's of categories of data input to understand a problem (The algorithms will always need to be triple checked because that is where the data finds its meaning. Algorithms strive for perfect accuracy...but they never are. They are fictitious to represent real life events/phenomenon in numbers/numeral form. No one could build a formula so complex as to capture all possibilities. Thus, we use models of the most likely scenarios within our current awareness. The algorithm would be the mathematical model of what this data may mean as a representation of the main measurements that represent an actual phenomenon.)
P.S. I added companies because large companies would have their own adaptation behaviors. That would be complex for global companies working with different rules and laws in different places.
The Detroit Economic Club has all types of insightful speeches. Stuart Hoffman, SVP & Senior Economic Advisor at PNC Financial Services Group Inc. presented the speech to the Detroit Economic Club (DEC) . It was pretty good so I took some notes so as to share them at some point (Of course after I clean them up a little. I'm just trying to understand why the U.S. is lagging and what might sort of fix that on a root level. I just theorize as I grocery shop so don't really listen to me yet. Most of what come up with sort of makes sense, has research support, but I need to finish off polishing it now that I know it could potentially work. How that specifically happens is a difficult question because it is more of a practitioner issue requiring specialized knowledge. I'm just good at the structure and abstraction. Most of the time I'm in the ball park. I mean I could learn the individual parts but it wouldn't necessarily get a good return on the investment of time. )
-A couple banks failed because they were taking big risks.
-Feds expect to raise rates once and then need to cut rates early next year. Push out of recession.
-2/3 stocks 1/3 bond and a little more cash equivalent. (Good advice)
-Chip shortage on cars.
-2024 will be an upswing (Sort of in line with my projection. In 2020 when I made it, lots of things happened. I'm curious of the time period of 23/24 transition.)
-Mentoring was helpful.
-Many will return to work in office most of time.
-If U.S. defaults on debt it would be all hell breaks lose on economy. We would never have seen it in 250 years.
-The stock market will punish the inability to manage debt. (It seems so hard but its about going forward. If one is to extend there should be some realignment of our programs specifically to our national goals like any organization. That doesn't mean throw out certain social supports. It means we have to look at everything and see what is creating either a net positive economically and/or net positive on life satisfaction which improves the environment for personal and economic growth. Treading water doesn't help much except as time to make decisions. Time is overall an expenditure. See Sustainable Economic Systems, Start-Up Economy DC Model, Social Investing, Sustainable Economy)
-The Pandemic causes further differences between the haves and have nots. Money is being too concentrated in fewer hands.
Let us say that this was sort of an interesting meeting. You have different perspectives coming forward on issues and people are not afraid to share them. While there are differences I think they will eventually be resolved through shared perspective as long as we have strong communication skills that encourage understanding. To me, all governance is a type of negotiation and when we are open to hearing different points of view it helps to make better long term strategic buy in that leads to growth. Policies should seek to have maximum participation and in turn outcomes and further effort (General comments not specific to anyone in particular. However, if it seems to pertain it is good to think about it to enhance communication in the future.).
Notes: I try and be accurate but sometimes make mistakes so if you find one just post something in comments and I will adjust.
-No public comment on agenda items
-Yes let us support our dispatchers. Nice.
-Parks are online now.
-Bills voted to be paying bills.
-Purchase defined benefit for retirement.
-Recommendation to jury board.
-Lots of rentals at Pioneer.
-Discussion on sewer lines and connecting together. Discussion on state level. Outline of the new sewer line. Water will go in as well. From an economic standpoint this is central to improve the local infrastructure. There will be businesses that will rely on the new utilities.
-I like the concept of condo development. I also would believe downtown would be a good area to develop first with all of the apartments on top. After that, I think condo development would make sense. State funding on housing. Local rep and State Senator to take it down and discuss housing funding with MI.
-It looks like there are shut off notices to be paid for but there is some need for approve $2K to obtain the money early. Passes!!
-Opioid settlement in private discussion. Oh my...opioid lawsuit! Who sued who and what is going on? The closed meetings make me see if I can kind of guess what its about (Guessing. Ding!). I'm thinking a settlement from drug manufacturers to the county? Maybe a state settlement of some type? Then I found it online (typing, typing, drink coffee, typing in Google). Aha! $834K for Delta County. So I was right. The List with Delta County and also 'Michigan’s $81 Million Opioid Settlement Distribution Set to Begin' (Now what should we do with the money to maximize it? I would think it would be tied to opioid addiction treatment but if not lets consider putting it into attracting young entrepreneurs to the area and raising our digital footprint to draw investment and vacationers. ) What? $180K only!...that isn't as much as the document above said. 😣
-Concern about some social media comments, opposing White nationalism, and concepts of patriotism. (Here are my thoughts. We can put these youth to good work building a great community and nation. It takes all types with lots of different ideas. As long as we find constructive avenues for their grievances and concerns they become contributors in their own way. Our generation should not throw stones. Let us help them, with whatever nuggets of knowledge we gained to build a nation in which they can prosper. There is a difference between preaching and guiding. Its not the youths words that I'm thinking about, there is a deeper message, it is his spirit we should harness for the greater good. I'm not agreeing or disagreeing with anything he/they is/are saying because those are his/their opinions. I'm thinking more about how to turn a conflict into a win-win. Too bad we didn't have something we could take that spirit and help him apply it in a way that helps everyone. That is how we develop human capital and created shared cross-generational meaning. Listen deeper then the words and hear a person who maybe wants to be part of something important. This is what mentoring programs can do. Let us guide, not chastise. Would he be passionate about starting a philosophy and sociology program at the library? Maybe advocacy for something important? It is about finding what draws his interest and then providing the pathways in which he can master and apply those ideas in constructive Avenues. FYI: The board members maintained their composure which is great. Tough to do under those circumstances. )
-A comment on Jesus loving others. We should not shame others and treat each other well. Some discussion of the Golden Rule in there.
-Epidemic of gun violence. Concerned about gun sanctuary. Coherent speech. (Our beloved Daily Press put an article out 'Youth stage protest at Delta County Board meeting')
-Another discussion on leadership expectations by a community member. I'm not agreeing or disagreeing with the message but the way in which it was delivered. I almost felt a poetic rhetorical prose within the speech. Ok...this kid needs to get into poetry, creative writing or something. "...cling to a world that never existed...." it was good...a nice piece. (The opinion is his but the prose seem to have an artistic flavor to it.)
(Who says you can't get youth involved in poetry and politics? I think he is eluding to a concept called Social Construction of Reality You may be more interested in the detailed article in the Grounded Theory Review entitled What is Social Constructionism? It reminds me of the movie on the importance of language and how each of us contributes a verse to the greater understanding of the whole. As a people we are social constructing our understanding of our world, the way in which we want to live. This is all but a conversation that leads a socially negotiated understanding of how we collective perceive our reality.)
-A thank you for serving on the board and a criticism of the criticism. Bill of Rights. 2nd amendment support. A comment about going somewhere else didn't seem to go well.
-Information being handed should be in the agenda packet so as to not required to ask for information after.
-Stolen power and stolen credit and assistance. A concern about media discussions.
-I agree that posting the information within a few days online would make a lot of sense. Comments on allowing people to be free so people listen.
"When the debate is lost, slander becomes the tool for the loser". -Socrates There is some debate on whether that is an actual quote of Socrates but its main point is not lost. There is a difference between debate and slander. I know, I have been on the receiving end of it and trust me its no fun. Especially if people just make up anything and throw it around like its factual mud slinging. If its an opinion then we should state its an opinion and if its a fact then that is different. Or what I think is helpful, "I know that I know nothing" Socrates
-A few comments on the pledge and veterans and respecting different opinions. Will have coffee if no one spits it. Discussion on 2nd amendment. No authority to tell sheriff and prosecuting attorney what to do or believe.
Imagine where we have a police station that works on behalf of a foreign entity. Silencing prodemocracy U.S. residents on U.S. soil. I'm very happy that we do not allow such systems to persist within our country. I'm sure they would feel the same if we did the same. Any country and any people would not want these systems to exist. So this makes sense to close them down where we find them. 'Two Arrested for Operating Illegal Overseas Police Station of the Chinese Government'
One of the biggest things we would be wise to engage in is continuously drawing back manufacturing and industry investment into the U.S. It appears there has been some benefits in attracting semiconductor development in a way that impacts innovation across a wide spectrum of industries. That ability to impact entire industries through core tech development is important because it provides the most juice for the financial squeeze.
Semiconductor development is more helpful when matched with complementary initiatives. Let also consider recent changes in infrastructure and see if that ends up in conjunction with technology impacting our growth trajectory. As these semiconductors get up and running there will be some lag time but we should then see positive impact on innovation and technology based patents, products, and revenues.
Furthermore, we will need to become more productive and creative as a people so technology can match with human capital investment to create development synergy. That is a difficult and contentious issue as people debate what it means to be a universal democracy (i.e. meaning how to maximize engagement, opportunity, and development around shared American principles). Its a murky but important concept.
-Robert Casanova, Director of Industry Statistics and Economic Policy at the Semiconductor Industry Association, stated 52 semiconductor projects have been announced in the U.S. between 2020 when CHIPS Act started until March 2023 with a total of US$210 billion.
-From the chart 'Sources of FDI in US (US$ million)' it appears that FDI investment has doubled from Canada and Asia (I don't think the chart said but I think this is related to Semiconductors because of the paragraph above or below. I might have missed something.).
-AZ, TX, OH, NY appear to be top destinations for investment.
There are some really good charts and information offered by Senate RPC on semiconductors that discusses how the U.S. started to lose the technology game and this adjustment was helpful in shifting the trajectory 'Key to Economic and National Security'
-"$556 billion,7 with U.S. companies accounting for 47 percent of the market; semiconductors are the fourth largest U.S. export; and the industry directly employs nearly 300,000 Americans and indirectly accounts for 1.6 million additional jobs."
-automotive, computation and data storage, and wireless will fuel the growth.
Finally, you may want to consider the Semiconductor Industry Association and their 'Industry Impact' to determine what their perspective might be on the total impact. They have a cool Semi Conductor Map. Kind of looking at MI and the companies that are involved (It is separated by state) MI Semiconductor and about $675 Million.
*Subtransactions can create economic cluster growth to improve the speed of development. A type of protype catalyst for larger manufacturing initiatives. In this case, semiconductors are essential for computing power and that is root that will determine many other things throughout the development chain. Infrastructure, human capital, and technology work together to create leading edge products that help revitalize economic development.
We need new ways of doing things if we hope to master the growth game. I agree with infrastructure (i.e. including energy), innovation (i.e. advanced manufacturing and shorter lag time between invention and manufacturing) and human capital development (Getting everyone involved in the system at their maximum capacity. The growth of creative capital.)
According to the IMF China will lead the growth. China's global gross domestic product expansion will be around 22.6%, India's will be around12.9%, and the US will be around 11.3%.
The U.S. isn't exactly lagging and is in the top 4 but it isn't up to the level of China and India. I understand why as we only recently started being concerned about our long-term prospects and the necessity of maintaining our supply chains and improving our advanced manufacturing.
We will have to see what happens. I think we can grow much faster once we fulfill all of the components and be willing to try some new ideas as they related to cluster development that helps to improve the innovative capacity of areas.
