Gita Gopinath, the IMF's deputy director, states that the U.S. could still have a hard landing. She was impressed by the labor marketing and consumer strength. The hard landing would be an economic difficult. I think if the things played out right we could see a dip and then upward trend at the end of the year. However, that is a little speculative on my part.
Bankers are doing well but still are in a difficult spot. Centera banks are keeping their eye out for changes.
As a nation we still struggle with the concept of where we are going in terms of policing. What I often see is heel digging and sometimes ideological/political staunchness on both sides of an argument and that isn't doing anyone any good. We need people to think thoughtfully on how we can raise the standard of policing to reduce crime as well as ensure both the public and policing are focused on the same end goals. In some ways, we have to be able to explore these topics freely (Our nation does best when we are free thinkers and discussing issues toward a positive end. The far right and left ideologically staunch, but often less thought out ideologies, don't do us any good in the long run. It just creates more chaos and protracts the collective pain of poor decision making.)
We have lots of great officers and I believe in them and believe they are doing the right thing. 100% I support their good and thoughtful work. Sometimes we have bad officers, it happens everywhere and in every organization, and we need better mechanisms of holding to account and removing. I'm 100% against bad officers. Encouraging good officers might require positive pro Police and pro Public reforms.
This is the debate we are having nationally so its an important one. From a business and economic perspective it is important to solve because lower crime influences economic development but so does the ability to manage the human capital aspects that can only come from inclusiveness and opportunity. You may consider reading 'The nation is diversifying even faster than predicted, according to new census data' (This is why I think its important to think about this now and stay ahead of a curve. I like to be proactive. I think a lot of time in politics we are reactive.)
Crime Has an Impact on Economic Development:
Crime is a major detractor for any locality and we want to reduce crime as much as possible. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond crime and economic development are associated. You can read What Do Recent Studies Say About Crime and Policing? Part 1 to gain a better understand of that association.
So, based in that understanding we should always be focused on improving the total system for maximum effectiveness. Reducing crime both organically through prevention as well as becoming effective at solving crime problems. That will require thinking about how police can partner with community members to solve problems on a preventative level as well as on an enforcement level. The goal is to improve transparency and oversight without reducing effectiveness (We would actually want to make policing more effective and attractive. That would be important in the long run so anything we can do here is vitally important to reverse what appears to be a downward trend.)
Integrity of Departments and Institutions is Important:
Integrity is very important to all policing (The people need to believe in the truthfulness and integrity of the institution. Its central to good policing.) Sometimes officers commit crimes (Some say rarely, some say daily. It just depends on who you talk to and how they characterize their experiences.) and it becomes embedded into the culture of a group and that could lead to ulterior purposes and objectives.
Good officers naturally avoid doing illegal and immoral things and use the law appropriately to help the community. As human nature dictates, there are some who manipulate the law for self gain, help their friends, or who hold Inappropriate views against others they are willing to act out in public (It may be illegal but without accountability such behaviors persist to the detriment of society.)
I found an article by the Department of Justice in 2016. Police Integrity Lost: A Study of Law Enforcement Officers Arrested.
What the study found was that there were very poor records of police crime, most arrests were not made by the employing institution, and there are not adequate checks and balances for problem officers. Some of this might be by intentional by design and others as a by product. All institutions should consider the long term goals and values of society and should build in the mechanisms to remove members who are violating the law to ensure they stay focused on society's goals.
There was the Scorpion Group that was disbanded in the news recently. When you read the article you realize that the police departments were already struggling in these cases and morale was persistently low for a long time. That is not how policing should be. It should be a positive experience and it should be done with helping in mind. We want our officers to feel good about coming to work every day, we want the public to support them, and we want to move toward a proactive community engagement in fighting crime (Hand in hand between people and police. We need a little work to be able to do this. I do not feel we can get there until we start listening and thinking about long term goals.) You can read Disbanded Scorpion Unit.
More Training and Better Policies Needed:
I consider myself a friend of good police and encourage young people of diverse backgrounds to join their ranks. Policing will be part of our lives and we need them to be as effective as we can make them. When we know there is a need for change we often foot drag and that risks spillover branding (Being seen as not wanting change even when its reasonable to do so). That poor branding reflects unfairly on the institution of policing as a collective whole (Bad officers influence perceptions of good officers. I wish could say that wasn't true. I'm experienced and know more good officers than bad officers. However, there are communities who feel differently because they have not had those positive interactions. I wish it was different. There are many reasons why that occurs and its complex. A whole other discussion probably.)
You can read are article by the Council of Foreign Affairs that discusses how American police are at a disadvantage in training and funding. They indicate that creates more issues and there are solutions to some of those problems (I'm not saying I agree or disagree but that is what they say) How Police Compare in Different Democracies. There are many tactics and trainings I believe that would improve the nature of policing and create more buy in from minorities (If you study from a metanalysis all of the best practices nationally and internationally you can probably draw some basic conclusions. You can then check those out with experts in the policing field to ensure such tactics would work. I suspect you would then pilot study those tactics and if successful incorporate them into a national, state, or local training standard.).
A few ideas to think about. They are not actually complete and could be adjusted. However, I'm just thinking of what might be helpful based on these few documents and studies. There is plenty of room to disagree. I'm just thinking about how to improve the whole system in a way that would ensure stronger community support and effective policing outcomes. That support improve pro-social growth and greater partnerships between society and policing. Feel free to toss any of them...they are just thoughts in progress.....
1. Standards in Training: There are things I believe that every officer should know. That could be a study in and of itself (Just in case anyone is interested in conducting a study)
2. Yearly background checks. This is what one of the articles above said. Every year seems like a lot. Maybe every 3 years. However, complaints might be reviewed more regularly as part of the yearly performance review. (Ok, I'm not saying you would necessarily get union-department to agree but I'm saying its an idea. Discard if you feel its worthless.)
3. Automatic review of serious complaints (outside the department if necessary).
4. Diversify the staff and recruit from various backgrounds (improves policing and improves effectiveness). It might not be possible in some areas but one could consider swapping with bigger cities officers on 6 month assignments. A type of on the job training and exposure.
5. Known Federal violations be bumped up automatically to Federal and State agencies i.e. hate based crimes are chronically underreported. Systemically failing to report obvious incidents should be seen as fairly serious. We need to remember that its "liberty and justice for all" as central principles. We can't neglect our core American values for secondary lesser considerations.
6. Community oversite. Beyond State or Federal involvement during incidents of misconduct we might consider general community oversite. Things like complaints and these issues that do not appear to reach the level of being reportable Federally might still have value for review. Having a community panel capable of reviewing these issues could do wonders in ensuring appropriate checks and balances where weaker internal controls are experienced.
7. Wages and compensation. I'm a big supporter of police and first responders. I say an 8% raise but bigger benefits package might be helpful in keeping these positions attractive to young people. They have options and we want our best and brightest in public service. We seem to be narrowly focused on recruiting for an older paradigm of policing (One that isn't that effective statistically. I think we have to change to ensure we are using our resources well. Change to what is the big question.)
8. Personality. Hiring from a macho perspective doesn't really work anymore and might actually be a detriment to positive community interactions (Personally, I always prefer friendly, polite and helpful officers. The ones who feel a deep connection to the meaning of their work and the communities they serve.). We need thoughtful people who can use muscle if needed (which is more tactic then muscle) but have the personality to de-escalate and create positive good will (more character then ego). The soft skills and emotional intelligence is needed in all officers. You can't really have awareness of others until you have awareness of yourself.
*Food for thought. Not really finished yet. My beliefs fluctuate so ask me tomorrow and I might change my mind. The ultimate goal of this blog is national development and we can't say reasonably that improvement to an institution that impacts every American's life is not part of the consideration; from a practical standpoint (I'm fairly neutral on the topic so think about it for a moment). We see how the more important laws are sometimes supplanted by smaller and less important considerations that are not part of our core conception as a nation and its people. That missed priority organization in values could impact these institutions if the value of policing is policing itself and not its protect and serve component (In theory, in alignment with core American rights and values.).
** On a personal level I think we are leaving the next generation a mess. We are struggling to find the moral capital and conscious to sort of deal with it even though just about every study indicates the misalignment is becoming a bigger issue. From a business and economic standpoint it could be potentially a key component of human capital development along with education and broad based innovative development. As you can tell, I'm not afraid to use my freedom of speech. I say what I see. I love good police, dislike bad police, and would want a system that ensures we promotes the ones we want and removes the ones that are causing problems. Common sense isn't as common as we might hope it would be. Let us turn the page in our national development.....
The ice is clearing and boats are starting to get back on the water. I'm reviewing a couple of motors for my small boat in an effort to replace the one that was broke. Its the one I bought with the boat but didn't run well. I didn't pay much so I'm not worried about it. However, for now I'm checking out all the shore places to cast a line. Based on the warm weather and lots of melting snow the waters are running very fast. You don't want to fall in at some places.
"Little Bay de Noc: Anglers were done ice fishing the bay and awaiting the end of any remaining ice.
Big Bay de Noc: Shoreline ice remains in Ognontz Bay, while ice in Garden Bay was melting and will likely be open soon."
This was yet another productive meeting in our search to create the land of prosperity, brotherly togetherness, and good cheer (Ok. Sorry, sometimes I get excited about the possibilities!). What we often find is that there are many different pathways to growth and there is a balance between development and community affairs. Finding that balance is not easy but we do see a good attempt. You can watch this town grow and change as it draws in new resources and adjust to the global market.
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| In honor of Arbor Day..."The Tree of Life" Painter: Oluf Olufsen Bagge (1780-1836) Germen Mythology |
Development alone doesn't mean much without considering the quality of life side issues that impact the rudimentary aspects of interactive social and economic engagement. Kind of an interesting study on how quality of life and economic development sometimes go together. 'Impact of economic development on quality of life and human happiness of urban socio economic classes: a study of suburban Mumbai'. In this case, it looks like local activities and development are for the most part in tandem.
Sorry I digress....off to the important stuff....
Arbor Day was proclaimed (See info below) and it is now incumbent on all citizens of Escanaba to celebrate (Ok its not like someone is going to send you to the stockades or anything if you don't celebrate. However, you probably should plant a tree or something and shake your fist in defiance at pollution! Alternatively, perhaps picking up trash in the neighborhood or park might also be a good faith effort if you don't have a sapling to spare. See CO2 Emissions World)
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| Notice the U.S. is improving. Expect green energy and new energy sources to impact those lines. |
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is seen as an important marker for future inflation because it shows what we as consumers are likely to pay in terms of increase in costs. The cooling is considered in general a good thing, especially if we avoid a recession, and if we see economic increase at the end of 2023/24 (I don't know if it will happen but maybe. Much now depends on world activity, conflict, supply lines, and much more. When I made the projection in 2020 ish during Covid we are now in a new world when compared to then but many of the mechanics might stay the same. It doesn't matter if that projection is right because its too far out but I'm now curious what will happen. I'm wrong a lot and I'm right a lot. Throw the dice! ).
All items are around 5% (still historically high), food is still way up around 8.5%, energy is down -6.4%. The energy declines might be important. If they are seasonal based because of increased weather it would be understandable. If they are more or less based in increased supply from alternative sources and reduced demand it could me the conflict in Russia had a long term muted effect.
You can learn more about the BLS CPI. The World Economic Forum also has information on CPI at WEF CPI
Cities are great places and have an appeal but some of that luster has been tarnished. Cities are also based in many ways with physical commerce and there has been platform adjustments. The digital era has changed the nature of work for many young people and they can now live wherever they want. Attracting this group to small towns in the U.P. New talent will influence the way in which our daily community affairs are conducted.
First, the decline in city downtowns is based on the nature of commuting, crime/crime enforcement, and the economic policies that allow these places to become attractive to the young. So we see how policy can be updated to ensure it taking what is helpful of the digital era and applying it to rejuvenate downtowns. New platforms, new ways of doing things.
(That doesn't mean I have the answers here. I don't. It just means we can look at the problems and see what has worked in other local, national, and international places. Not be afraid to try new ideas.)
Smaller towns that have vacation-outdoor appeal, many small towns in the U.P., can attract young and fresh digital talent. They can do so because they offer lifestyle and a place to raise families that attracts certain demographics.
That will require us to change the way we think about institutions and whom they ultimately serve. In small towns we often do things through social networks and if new people arrive in our U.P. towns we will have to ensure we move beyond those networks (I'm an old-new meaning I have different connections locally and beyond. Not everyone is appreciative of my presence. Something to do with my name I think. 😥 Maybe also a little jealousy but I'm not sure. Which is weird because I'm friendly to everyone. The good news is, the vast majority are awesome, welcoming, good people. Some of the best I have seen throughout my travels and adventures. For the other group, I think those issues will be resolved eventually and life will move on. Its a growth opportunity. I think we need a group hug. 🤗).
Consider this 'Rural Main Streets can’t achieve true economic revival without bridging social divides'
What we find is that the digital talent is likely to be a little more diverse and highly educated. That will also bring with it new ideas and concepts. That can be a good thing for towns that need new ideas, businesses, and good ideas. Its all in the management process.
Other reading: Full Bloom Smart City (I'm wondering if coordinated marketing efforts to attract digital nomads and business investment for the downtown would be helpful?) Start-Up and Incumbent Firms
(Personally, I would like to see the Great Lakes develop their ecological health to be able to offer small scale single line and hook hobby commercial fishing licenses.)
Fishing Information and DNR Fishing Report DNR states, "Little Bay de Noc: Ice anglers fishing the upper bay for yellow perch had limited success. There was some fishing activity in deep water in front of Kipling, as well as the “mud flats”. Anglers reported deteriorating ice conditions, with diminishing amounts of good, hard ice, so extreme caution is advised when traveling, as conditions will likely change rapidly as the thaw takes hold."
