CPI Rises Only .01% : Energy Down 6.4% and Its Possible Implications for the Economy

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is seen as an important marker for future inflation because it shows what we as consumers are likely to pay in terms of increase in costs. The cooling is considered in general a good thing, especially if we avoid a recession, and if we see economic increase at the end of 2023/24 (I don't know if it will happen but maybe. Much now depends on world activity, conflict, supply lines, and much more. When I made the projection in 2020 ish during Covid we are now in a new world when compared to then but many of the mechanics might stay the same. It doesn't matter if that projection is right because its too far out but I'm now curious what will happen. I'm wrong a lot and I'm right a lot. Throw the dice! ). 

All items are around 5% (still historically high), food is still way up around 8.5%, energy is down -6.4%. The energy declines might be important. If they are seasonal based because of increased weather it would be understandable. If they are more or less based in increased supply from alternative sources and reduced demand it could me the conflict in Russia had a long term muted effect. 

You can learn more about the BLS CPI. The World Economic Forum also has information on CPI at WEF CPI

Below you will see the energy decrease

You can also read this study, 'Energy efficiency and economy-wide rebound effects: A review of the evidence and its implications' It would seem that lower energy could positively influence economic growth this year and if we are efficient with that energy and have multiple sources of that energy it could reduce transactional costs at a root level (At least according to my little theory). In my mind, cheap energy is great but clean and renewable energy is the best of both scenarios. There is some research out there that indicates that if we solve the energy problem with fusion we could not only travel in space at some point with unlimited energy but perhaps stop fossil fuel dependency while improving economic output (i.e. cheap energy as a component of a new platform that comes with the digital era. A co contributing factor along with our infrastructure. See Cross Structure Synergy.). 

Two Million People Fled U.S. Cities in 2020: Opportunities for Small UP Towns

Cities are great places and have an appeal but some of that luster has been tarnished. Cities are also based in many ways with physical commerce and there has been platform adjustments. The digital era has changed the nature of work for many young people and they can now live wherever they want. Attracting this group to small towns in the U.P. New talent will influence the way in which our daily community affairs are conducted. 

First, the decline in city downtowns is based on the nature of commuting, crime/crime enforcement, and the economic policies that allow these places to become attractive to the young. So we see how policy can be updated to ensure it taking what is helpful of the digital era and applying it to rejuvenate downtowns. New platforms, new ways of doing things.

(That doesn't mean I have the answers here. I don't. It just means we can look at the problems and see what has worked in other local, national, and international places. Not be afraid to try new ideas.)

Smaller towns that have vacation-outdoor appeal, many small towns in the U.P., can attract young and fresh digital talent. They can do so because they offer lifestyle and a place to raise families that attracts certain demographics. 

That will require us to change the way we think about institutions and whom they ultimately serve. In small towns we often do things through social networks and if new people arrive in our U.P. towns we will have to ensure we move beyond those networks (I'm an old-new meaning I have different connections locally and beyond. Not everyone is appreciative of my presence. Something to do with my name I think. 😥 Maybe also a little jealousy but I'm not sure. Which is weird because I'm friendly to everyone. The good news is, the vast majority are awesome, welcoming, good people. Some of the best I have seen throughout my travels and adventures. For the other group, I think those issues will be resolved eventually and life will move on. Its a growth opportunity. I think we need a group hug. 🤗). 

Consider this 'Rural Main Streets can’t achieve true economic revival without bridging social divides'

What we find is that the digital talent is likely to be a little more diverse and highly educated. That will also bring with it new ideas and concepts. That can be a good thing for towns that need new ideas, businesses, and good ideas. Its all in the management process. 

Other reading: Full Bloom Smart City (I'm wondering if coordinated marketing efforts to attract digital nomads and business investment for the downtown would be helpful?) Start-Up and Incumbent Firms

Fishing in the U.P.: Local Fishing Industry, History and Reports

One thing that you can do in Escanaba is go fishing. Escanaba has a fishing history and is a regional draw for anglers. As the town develops and grows it will likely maintain some of that historical flavor in order to enhance tourism (A chance to connect the past with opportunities of the future). For example, the area currently has lots fishing events but might also consider fishing activities for families and other tourists. See FB Bay de Noc Fishing, Visit Escanaba, MI Tournaments

(Personally, I would like to see the Great Lakes develop their ecological health to be able to offer small scale single line and hook hobby commercial fishing licenses.)

Fishing Information and DNR Fishing Report DNR states, "Little Bay de Noc: Ice anglers fishing the upper bay for yellow perch had limited success. There was some fishing activity in deep water in front of Kipling, as well as the “mud flats”. Anglers reported deteriorating ice conditions, with diminishing amounts of good, hard ice, so extreme caution is advised when traveling, as conditions will likely change rapidly as the thaw takes hold."

DNR advice: Crappie advice is to set half way between top and bottom, minnow, under bobber, shallow water. 
 

My Useless Report: I went out for 40 minutes near Escanaba river and caught nothing. I was using rubber worms because I was too lazy to stop at the store and get live bait. Near the bottom. I think I had a yellow grub I tried for a few minutes. Listened to music and read my Kindle. Weather was nice. Apparently, I need to adjust my process to catch more fish.

Just in case you are interested in knowing more about the history of fishing in the U.P. 

'Euro-American Commercial Fishing in the Eastern Upper Peninsula – Part One'

You may also be  interested in know that $11+ Billion and 171,000 jobs are related to hunting and fishing in Michigan 2019.  'New report: Michigan is No. 1 among Great Lakes states for jobs created from hunting, fishing purchases'

Symbol Status and Personality: When We Should See Beyond Cultural Symbolism? (Human Development)

Here is something you may find of interest. There is a book I just finished reading called 'Symbol, Status, and Personality' by S.I. Hayakawa. The researcher does a lot of discussion on language and thought. Granted its a 1953 book but it is still beneficial in understanding underlining symbols of language (I like the era. We were actively building and discovering then. It led to great things for Baby Boomers and then a little bit in my generation and mostly just the possibility to the younger generation. We have a great platform but need to use it to maximize opportunities. Its hard to get everyone thinking beyond the symbols in which they have come to define themselves to those things that are rudimentary to societal development.). 

In the chapter on the Fully Functioning Personality it talks about culture and symbolism. The fully functioning personality is not a conformist. He or she can take from their culture what is practical and beneficial but is not emersed in that culture without awareness. I think of it like fish in a fish bowl. They have no idea what is outside of their fish bowl because they can't see past the mirror (Little cultural awareness and little self awareness.). 

The mirror is where we mix what we understand on a deep neural level with what we see in our environment (Seeing in terms of understanding information through all of our senses.). That is often encoded through symbolism that are culturally laden with basic assumptions of our childhood (A type of cultural imprinting and programming). 

Because these symbols are deeply rooted they are hard for the average person to differentiate the stimuli, the symbol, competing symbols, what is theirs, what is someone else's, etc. In other words, what we understand in the world is based in these deeply encoded symbols and how we interpret happenings of our environment from a personal and social negotiation level.

We do this all the time. For example, we assume that if we drive a Porsche (which I had one and I miss the car because it was a classic. It was very old and didn't cost me much.) that we are worth more or that we drive an old junky pick up (next on list) we are worthless. The same for clothing, wealth, friends, etc. (They have value in maintaining our social status in turn our survivability dating back to the beginning of social life but they are highly symbolic. This means that different cultures have different symbols manifesting basic social needs of each society. They are similar in orientation even though they look different in each society.) 

As we become wiser (i.e. developed in personality and perspective) we begin to gain experience with various scenarios. If you mix development traits, exposure, education/experience, self-reflection, etc. you will find there are a few that can step above their culture to some more essential cross cultural life "truths". You can find more information about this topic of self-actualization at 'Maslow’s Unacknowledged Contributions to Developmental Psychology' and 'Dabrowski’s Theory of Positive Disintegration and Giftedness:  Overexcitability Research Findings'

Rural Firefighting: USDA Resources, Stats, and Recruitment-Retention Research

Sometimes I firefight and try and help my community when I can (I'm not as active as some but I do my best with my digital nomad life. I contribute more in some areas than others.). In my life I have many other responsibilities but I think this is an important one. Considering I like physical activity and have had a life of adventure firefighting appeals to me. From what I have read, the young are not as interested in firefighting, and other first responder positions, when compared to the past. I'm sort of exploring that concept now. 

USDA has a pretty solid page Rural Fire Department Resources for Local Officials. A fairly helpful Firefighter Stats Page.  21 firefighter deaths in 2023 thus far. As recruitment and firefighter availability in rural areas struggle along with increased global warming demand we will need to think about safety more. Thus, rural fire departments, and the people that stay engaged, will have a more prominent role in combating these environmental risks. 

An interesting study on firefighting retention. While our department is doing well most fire departments and other first responder services are suffering in recruitment. These are complex issues and we don't really like talking about them; likely why they haven't been resolved. There are solutions I think and ways to create win-win.

Here is the study Volunteer Retention Research Report Prepared for National Volunteer Fire Council. (Always keeping in mind ways to improve on recruitment in general for similar type institutions.)

IMF and World Bank Projections: How the U.S. Can Beat Market Growth Numbers?

If you notice the numbers for U.S. growth you will see we are positive but not as fast as China or India. In order for us to achieve these levels of growth rates we have to be more innovative and be a central place for people to invest. That requires us to think about how our current infrastructure investment mixed with good policy and better human capital management can lead to higher foreign direct investment but also organic growth (In theory).  

-Global growth 2.8% 2023 bottom out and rise to 3% 2024. 

-Inflation will move from 8.7% to 7%

-Emerging economies are pushing forward in growth.

-Corporate profits are high from high prices while labor costs are expected to rise higher. 

-Banking turbulence in the U.S. caused some growth issues.

-U.S. growth 1.6%, China 5.2%, India 5.9% and Europe .8%, and Russia .7%

-60% of lower performing countries are at risk of a level of default.

 You can gain more information in 'IMF cuts GDP forecasts, says global economy heading for weakest growth since 1990'

Scientists Discover and Decipher 9 ring “meteoroscope” Instrument by Ptolemy

Derivation of the katabatikê and antiskios angles on the meteoroscope
Source Ptolemy’s treatise 

My other calling in life was archeology and the discovery of ancient text/artifacts but alas I went into research, science/theory, business/economics, and applied psych/human capital (I still do a little diving and have a museum that would consider taking what I find. Darn boat is always broke!). I like these new discoveries because they change the way we think about science and provides greater depth. Sometimes new discoveries can change the way we see the universe, create new science lenses and other types of interesting perspectives.

While this manuscript discovery may or may not be ground breaking depending on its implications we can say it is the way these master's of the mind thought. They balanced philosophy, geometry and natural learning to abstractly construct an understanding of the world around them with a level of sophistication that is difficult to match.

I also do a little sailing so I'm thinking about how that might impact sailing and calculating distances manually (I got this book I wanted to read on it.).

Who was Claudius Ptolemy?

Read

Ptolemy’s treatise on the meteoroscope recovered

What the study said the meteorscope does is....(quoted)....

1. determine the elevation of the north celestial pole for the place one is observing on an arbitrary day or night;

2. determine the direction of the meridian circle for the place of observation, and the directions of routes of travel from that place relative to the meridian in the form of the angle between the meridian and another great circle passing through the zenith point;

3. using the foregoing data, display on the meteoroscopic instrument itself the sought arc between the two localities; and

4. display the arc of the equator cut off between the meridians through the two localities.