Recession in 2023: IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva Discusses Global Economy

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva says seriously only 3% growth over the next 5 years!! (Yikes...we can do better than that on this side of the globe. That really kind of stinks!) She indicates that most of the growth is going to be experienced in developing countries. However, I don't believe people should discount the U.S. because there are going to be some changes that will likely impact how competitive the U.S. becomes over the next 5 years. New things are coming online soon and prior projects will kick in at the end of the year. At least that is what I think at the moment. Ask me tomorrow and I might give you a different answer. The crystal ball economic projection will be the 2023/24 transition.

 (Meaning maybe that is when we see new economic activity. Maybe not. I think some of the projections are against that. I think it could be a result of changes in business models started during COVID, new infrastructure, adjustments in global supply chains, and new shared national competitive strategies at home. That might match with new technologies that boost labor productivity. I could be just as much wrong as correct. It is what it is so we just sort of stick our finger in the air and see which way the wind is blowing sometimes. All of the complex models seem to come down to some guess work based on what data they are looking at and the data they are ignoring.).

While we Americans love to argue about everything, we are becoming increasingly aware of the need to start looking over the horizon and resolving some of our differences. There is growing bi-partisan interest in becoming competitive and I think we are increasingly unified in perspective (Kind of looks that way to me I think. 🤔). 

For me, I think of it as....

1. Infrastructure: i.e. root transactions in my transactional theory. Things like rail, Internet, energy, etc.

2. Innovation/Technology: Creating the legal and political framework that allows for advanced innovative development by aligning our education and our businesses to reward broad based innovative adaptations.

3. Human Capital: Ok....we are starting to understand some of the basics here. C+ but I think we turned a corner in the past few years.  Social, legal, opportunity, education, etc... Let us see what happens. Fingers crossed. 🤞

-Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva talks about low productivity. I agree. The U.S. could use improvement in human capital along with new technology to push upward.

-She mentions fraying supply chains between Washington and Beijing. Data Supply Chain.

-Discussion on Trump Tariffs. 

-Discussion on China commitment to world economy.

-Geopolitical tensions contribute to slow growth.

Private Payrolls Increased 145K Lower Than Expectations and Pay Up 6.9% Per ADP

Bridge Near Marquette MI.

The economy is doing something interesting and added fewer jobs than expected. Mining, leisure, construction and trade were up while manufacturing, financial and professional services were down. Not sure what it all means but I would say pay outstripping inflation is good. However, it should rise faster than that if we are going to make headway on income disparity. 

Likewise, I think the basics for infrastructure and future manufacturing are improving. I wonder if at some point we find manufacturing increase toward the end of the year.  Sometimes it takes time to see what happens throughout the supply chain. 

You may be interested in reading ADP's March, 2023 Press Release on Jobs and Pay

Pay is up 6.9% Inflation 6.4%

Biggest Winners: 

-Mining Up

-Leisure

-Construction

-Trade

Biggest Losers:

-Financial Services

-Professional Services

-Manufacture

-Midwest Gains 132K the South lost 228K. 

A Discussion on American Values: Universal Application of Philosophical Symbolic Artifacts

We discuss a lot about economics, life, research, investment, national development, art, science, community and much more. What we don't often talk about are about those values the move to define we are as a people and as a nation. The values we share across different groups within societies and the values we share that hold our society together under certain common principles of a shared destiny. These values are based in our very basic human needs as fulfilled through our collective societal goals. They are built and rooted into our social contracts such as the Constitution and furthered in our oaths and pledges.

Signing of the Constitution
Howard Chandler Christy 1940

While individualized values may be different, the essential roots of our collective values are more universal. It means we can go to any culture and find something very similar in a way that would reverberate with our American values. One would not be aware of those similarities unless they have the personality and open mindedness to see people of equal status *****. We can't see the essential logic of another's culture until we see them as valuable and worthy to learn from (You have to listen to what their goals, dreams and hopes are. America has a place in inspiring that collective goal achievement.).

Philosophy is the search for essential truths and that relates to our root values. This is one reason why I believe in universalization of our core value systems in a modern and global world as a way to solve some cultural transition issues. The American conception of some of these truths are codified in our Constitution based not only on the struggles of the people then but those struggles that carry forward today. They have resonance if upheld with integrity and with a bigger picture in mind (Defined as upright and whole or undivided. See integrity definition. You will also notice in the Constitution there is a lot of discussion on rights.).

Freedom of Speech and Freedom of Religion

For example, Freedom of Speech and Freedom of Religion are two constitutional protections in which all other laws should fall into alignment. Where they do not, it means we have a level of misalignment that turns into societal rubbing as lower and higher truths compete for dominance. The higher truths often being more accurate and more common among people. Without these essential freedoms will be subject to decline as a nation through lack feedback for improvement and/or not anchoring in deeper moral purpose (i.e. the moral roots of laws through ethics and values.)

Let us also consider concepts stated and professed in our oaths such as the Oath of Allegiance and our pledges such as Pledge of Allegiance. Both of these state very similar things and are the action that supports the Constitution as a shared governance principles. We make oaths and pledges to Our American Principles that have transcended and been passed on by generation to generation in symbolic forms such as  (i.e. the Torch of Liberty, Flag, Drummers, and Bugle). We do so because of their essential truths the resonate with each generation. This is why leadership is more or less about influencing people to loftier goals in alignment with truer values.

The Genius of the Constitutional Crafter

Those high level hierarchical truths of speech and religion are codified in the Constitution. What many do not know is that the primary crafter of the James Madison was a gifted genius with all of the eccentric characteristics that come with advanced thought and skills. That in turn creates a way of looking at the world that were inherent in his psychological and biological make up that might be difficult for others to understand (Each will understand a little differently. The elemental way in which he formed his perspective and how he connected them together is important.).***  The American system is a formal logic system based on a philosophical and historical understanding of freedom that goes all the way back in history to before modern society and the beginning of written form. It is not the only system but it is the system we adhere to within the U.S. and it transcends different cultures. It is also kind of a geo-logic/ethical system that can increasingly be broken down elementally with the development of society. *. 

The Logic of American Values

Just like in Ethica Ordine Geometrico Demonstrata our Constitution is a geo-logic/ethical system that can be broken into universal elements that can be represented cross culturally. From a sociological perspective societies share interconnect characteristics that make them one people. (The beauty of people who can think beyond close similarity and into the shared value of life. This is partly why James Madison pushed for liberty. Gifted people can see the similarities and values in people. They know the large system must accept fluidity and difference) This is why I believe that the next stage of our development is universalization of all entities and systems to maximize human capital in conjunction with other deeper innovative platform changes.** 

Big Data will likely push us to recognize things we did not recognize before and that will in turn push us to adapt/twist toward a higher form of truth. We will do that because that which we cannot see will be brought before us in a way that is supported by science and not backed by subjective values or subjective application of the laws that represent those values (Truth transcends politics. If functional and healthy political discussion can eventually lead to a generation's "truth".). New feedback loops and ways of looking at problems is a good thing that allows us to keep the torch bright through helpful discussion and relevant for the next generation. Our democracy can adjust because it shares elemental truths with each generation who can define that democracy in a line with generation-to-generation understandings. Feedback pushes the system to change in alignment with better definitions of truth. (In other words, because it is designed as representative and inherently bottom up it can push the decision makers of society to adjust toward higher societal needs.)

We are at this place in society and history where the great winds of change will push us to think again about our national development. We have some work to do. That includes ensuring that each institution is aligned with our great principles from an elemental perspective (All the way down to the human-to-human interaction). It is a time when each leader, politician, and common man/woman should consider the greater purpose of our nation and its value systems so as to push the system upward in a way that appeals to the inner power of our youth of diverse perspective and background in meaningful constructive work (i.e. finding the youths cultural logic and connecting that better to the bigger purpose as codified in our Constitution and representative form of a democratic republic.)  At this juncture in history we should seek to maximize our human capital through realized and enacted shared American principles as the law of the land.

“The advice nearest to my heart and deepest in my convictions is that the Union of the States be cherished and perpetuated.” 

James Madison the Fourth U.S. President 

** Benedict de Spinoza used the philosophical methods of ethics, metaphysics, and epistemology to create a truth in thought. i.e. the universal is rational with principles/elements. These schools of philosophy tell us 1. truth in reality, 2. origins/nature 3. moral conscious/ethics. )

* Philosophical science is often mathematical in orientation such as Euclid Elements and Euclidean thought. All logical philosophical systems can be broken down into elements and when they work together they create a system. Its beauty is in its adaptability and as long as people believe in its essential shared "truths"/"perception of reality" and  the liberty bell will continue to ring over the land. 

***Genius is a complex thing. They think in finiteness and abstraction at the same time. There has been a strong relation between genius use of mathematics to break down and understand/analyze logic. Math-Logic connection. A level of depth that sometimes can run deeper than others to the things under things that make stuff work. The gifted curse to search for novelty and newness in an ever present need to understand "why?" that makes them unique and also swimming against the current in society. MD Traits of Genius, Genius Levels, Gardner Multiple Intelligences.

****Where there are elements in systems that are not in connection with our bigger purpose then we must make changes (i.e. enhancing our diverse youth). We have recently become aware of this problem and I believe we are again aligning our elements to the bigger purpose that transcends generations. Just like science, each law (and its shadow application) become a more elemental measurement of the success of the greater whole. Where something is not in alignment we must adjust to ensure full competitiveness. I believe we are on that path now. We may very well be one of the first nations to adjust to a more global perspective of our essential shared democratic perspectives. 

***** This blog is designed to help people think. "cogito, ergo sum"  Rene Descartes the philosopher, scientist and mathematician. You may read more about him and his atomistic philosophies of society It is not definitive answer. Its just food for thought. Feel free to click off. The sad reality is that even though we should be inclusive as a society we are not and that is causing us all types of issues. While I think we will eventually become more enlightened in how we treat people, often people sort of roll their eyes and go back into the same patterns. Yet, on an elemental level developing our Human Capital through fairness of treatment will make all the difference in the future. I think we have a hard time seeing that in our current political and legal environment. 

Invest in America: Biden Discusses Economy in Minneapolis

According to the speech there is increase in major investments throughout the country and there is also some development of our supply chain. The development will be sustained year after year with constant rejuvenation of business. Innovation can be increased through small business start-ups. Sometimes this can be organic through the funneling of proper resources on top of the right creative infrastructure (i.e. Internet). Other times it can be done incentivizing. Sometimes you need both. It is more about understanding the environment and then finding a way to generate pro-profit and pro-goal transactions at either the corporate or the small business level.

According to the study below I looked at, it is possible to use government-private investor strategies to generate more innovation and grass root organizations. In the example provided in the study there is 50% Govt. Funding and 50% Private Investor Funding.  Spend a moment and read (ok just look at the conclusion if its a little long. I often just skim and then look at the conclusion. If the juice is worth the squeeze you go back and read it in depth. The difference between PhD and DBA is one is more theory and one is more applied theory. We can do their stuff and they can do ours but we sort of specialize.) ....

THE DANCE BETWEEN GOVERNMENT AND PRIVATE INVESTORS: PUBLIC ENTREPRENEURIAL FINANCE AROUND THE GLOBE

The study helps us see that successful government-industry partnerships occur when 1.) govt. is seen as effective, 2.) more effective at earlier stages. i.e. start-ups, and 3.) where private venture is more developed. This is a formula in the study I was sort of picking at to understand. I guess its an innovation formula based on 4 different patent measurements. 

Also some stuff on controls for population, per capital GDP and lagged venture capital activity. It is in mathematician language which takes me a minute to decipher so don't blame me. While I can do some of this stuff, some do it all the time with the snap of their finger. Me, I have to kind of get into it to understand each of the components to the formula and how they twist/adjust data to a useful number for decision making and benchmarking (Its too late to do this stuff right now. It would take me like 2 hours to sort of understand all the formulas in the study I think.).

𝐼𝑛𝑛𝑜𝑣𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑐,𝑡 = 𝛼𝑐 + 𝛼𝑡 + 𝛽 × 𝑃𝑂𝑆𝑇𝑐,𝑡 + 𝛾 × 𝑋𝑐,𝑡 + E𝑐,t

A couple key things:

-Chips and Science Act

-American Rescue Plan

-Bipartisan Infrastructure 

-Inflation Reduction Act

-New Jobs and New Manufacturing Jobs

-$435 Billion dollars in investment in the past couple of years. 

-Clean Great Lakes (We need to do this for long term health.)

-New EV Stations

-Cummins 

-Hydrogen 

-Manufacturing Capital

-Supply Chain

-Union jobs, competitive workforce. 

-Farm bill and clean every technology (Might be a type of fusion because that is pretty cutting edge stuff right now. Probably Fusion Energy).

-$1 Billion and water clean. 

-Something about paying for this. This is the 15% tax on corporations.

-Discussion on deficit (I don't get into this stuff because everyone gets excited. I just want to understand the economics on things. )

-Investments in research (I think this is where private and public investment in research pools might be helpful.) 

Research on Why People Choose to Cooperate: The Social and Economic Implications

'Social cues to joint actions:
the role of shared goals'

Every society is managed and run by unwritten norms and rules. That is true whether we are consciously aware of them or not. People believe in these unwritten rules because it is what keeps society moving to higher and higher levels of development. This is one of the primary reasons why people are also in general polite, why we follow laws, and why we in general live toward positive healthy goals. 

Not everyone believes in those shared values. Sometimes it is due to misunderstanding and sometimes it is due to erroneous beliefs. This is becoming increasingly more important as we become a diverse society with different types of people. Our shared American values should help guide us to higher levels of development. 

Why does cooperative behavior lead to better societies?

We all must work together to achieve our goals. This is somewhat the same argument on human capital development and how our universal shared values prompt people to be engage in society and contribute in helpful ways. Sometimes there are mixed signals that limit our potential because it creates different rules for different people. 

Working together to me means that we believe in our shared vision for society and we support that as a people through word and deed. We make pledges to our society, and then we must encourage those values in our environment from an organic level, and encourage others to adopt those values. 

When values (people or groups) are not prosocial, then such values (people or groups) need to change so as to have healthy influence. On a very socio-bio level it is up to society to create social and institutional pressure to ensure anti-social elements not working in the best interest of society come into line with helpful behaviors.  

Key points: Societies that share certain values will have higher prosocial behaviors of cooperation. They will also likely be more adaptable and capable of funneling resources to the shared goals.

Possible Benefit to Economics: Since economics is a measure of human behavior our cooperative level would have a big influence on a micro (and then macro) level by encouraging more interaction among different societal demographics in a way that leads to higher long term economic growth. 

I love sociology and philosophy and have since I was a kid so with education we can balance philosophy and science as co methods of analysis and awareness........

Why People Choose to Cooperate, According to Behavioral Science

The U.P. Struggling with Housing: Attracting Lifestyle and Business Enthusiasts

The original Escanaba Highschool
Was Junior High in my time.
Is now Middle School
Very nice building.

Housing is going to become a bigger issue for small towns in the U.P. We have a lifestyle that is very different than many others. It is smaller, rural, and more connected to nature. The tourist areas would get busy during the summer months and typically these towns would fall silent. There is a growing interest to the area by digital nomads, technology workers, outdoor enthusiasts that now think the Upper Peninsula is great place to live and invest. 

Take Escanaba for example. It has received new investments and is starting to grow quickly. The town will go through some changes in a way that increases revenue for the local towns and draws in new resources. There will be new visitors and people and that is helpful in an environment that has seen somewhat of a decline in young people. That is about to be changed into the positive. 

Culture is also an important thing and will likely adjust a little with new influx of people and ideas. They will become acclimated to the Yooper lifestyle but will also bring with them new ideas on how to do things. If the cultural aspects of influx of people are managed well it could lead to a more "outdoorsy" and entrepreneurial flavor to the current community based approach of life leading to future business and family retention. 

Wallet Watch: U.P. struggles to house a much-needed workforce

CEA Chair Jason Furman: Discusses Fed and Interest Rates

CEA Chair Jason Furman says that the economy is growing and Feds might need to engage more to manage the economy and create stability. That will mean higher interest rates are possible. He feels that he should not hold off because it could create a bigger problem down the road. 

Principle: Holding off on interest rate hikes creates stability while increasing them leads to slowing inflation.