$2.2 Billion US Package Readied for Ukraine

Ukrainians are getting some new equipment and aid. You can find more information on Reform and Aid CNBC and Ukrinform (Apparently its a Ukrainian multimedia broadcasting site.) Kind of cool video on the Stryker Combat Vehicle that is part of the package. 

IMF Raises Economic Projections for 2023 (Thumb in Wind Style!)

The IMF Raises Economic Projections for 2023. That is generally good news for economies because they feel that certain issues are going to get better and there may be a new post Covid homeostasis realized (There are plenty of market issues that can disrupt that but a general homeostasis of market "normalcy".) From my understanding, most of the projections last year and the year before were pretty negative so this would be interesting if actual metric performance beats the market projection. 👍

Source: Academic-Capital Thumb in Wind Transaction Model

I think the digital economy has grown substantially since COVID and I also think that 2023 will be an interesting year with potential growth periods for GDP and Digital GDP (Assuming we have the right growth policies and we settle our political differences). See Short Lived Shock 2020 and Not Out of Woods, You can gain some information from there Digital Transformation. (We don't have enough information on the Digital Economy and its relation to the whole! Its a catalyst to growth and economic history shows what happens when information transference speeds up and the wealth it can create for first in large scale digital economies.😭 Ok...its just a thumb in wind projection.🤷)

(I can be as wrong as the other economists, please use that term loosely with me, but its just casual watching of the market and adjusting a model to see if we can determine the next gen digital economic market indicators that will foster the greatest use of information and opportunity. In other words, how do transactional cluster models fit within current market activities as a broader understanding of similar mechanisms in the market.) 

IMF January 30, 2023

"Description: The January 2023 World Economic Outlook Update projects that global growth will fall to 2.9 percent in 2023 but rise to 3.1 percent in 2024. The 2023 forecast is 0.2 percentage point higher than predicted in the October 2022 World Economic Outlook but below the historical average of 3.8 percent. Rising interest rates and the war in Ukraine continue to weigh on economic activity. China’s recent reopening has paved the way for a faster-than-expected recovery. Global inflation is expected to fall to 6.6 percent in 2023 and 4.3 percent in 2024, still above pre-pandemic levels." IMF, 2023

Billerud Bullish in Escanaba as Governor Whitmer Passes Development Funding

Bulls and Bears In Wall Street

William Holbrook Beard (1824 - 1900)

In relation to "The Hunt"

Billerud AD and the City of Escanaba and surrounding areas should be happy with the state growing economic affairs. New money is coming into town and if that momentum is used well with strong decisions it can be a spark to something much more important and greater. Any opportunity to see the underdog shake its fist at the global economy and master that challenge is a site to be seen. The global market will not leave us behind! No! We shall mount and ride those spiritus animalis with a "the breath that awakens the human mind"

(I mean its a sight to see if you like economics. There are different types of people in the world. Some couldn't care less even if they live off of those jobs and others take a keen interest in such topics. This is precisely why cognitive and other diversities are important. We don't want conformity when it comes to brain storming. Sorry off topic...its related to another woven theme. )

Quentin L. Messer, Jr., CEO of the MEDC and President and Chair of the MSF Board states,"Billerud's transformational investment in their Escanaba Mill underscores the strength of our advanced manufacturing workforce and secures a critical win as we continue working to promote long-term, sustainable investments across the state."  (MEDC stands for Michigan Economic Development Corporation which seeks to foster broader state economic growth. Find more about that HERE.) You can read the Bill 0007 MI

I was looking around at a sharable chart and this is as closest as I found. This one is from Market Screener. Very nice site. I get increasingly into understand the deeper mechanics of active investing with a slight socially responsible bent focused on national development through resource, infrastructure, R&D, and advanced technology. You can read more about the spending bill Governor Whitmer signed in another beloved local paper, but not quite as nice as the Daily Press, one of the runner up publications Iron Mountain Daily article Whitmer "👌" Billerud!☝ 

(Ok it sounds good in speculation but I will leave that to the billionaires. I'm just trying to pay for gas and groceries. ...and utilities! This inflation rate is terrible! 🙊 If there is a few pennies left over, maybe a whole dollar, I will actively invest even that amount into the market. Wealth is through finding a consistent winner strategy that can be applied over time. A scalable strategy. Investing in trends and places like Escanaba where there is an upswing is likely to have a positive influence in portfolio outcome. Disclaimer, go talk to your investment broker as I'm just sort of talking for my own understanding. I'm just saying that one could almost build an economy here. A pro business town responsive to the needs of residents and investors/businesses. You have to watch some of the city hall meetings to see that. Its just my opinion. 😀)

I sort of looked through Billerud's stock information and history. It looks like they are conservative investors meaning that they don't jump in or out lightly. I didn't actually look to see if it is a relatively closely held stock or a wider dispersed stock. Based on its size and likely historical roots I'm going to say closely held. That is just a guess. I could be wrong. 🤷 When I have some time I will look. Either way, they and the State of MI, may have just created a wider regional development spark. (Under the right circumstances and in a situation where a few market trends are crisscrossing in the same place. Possible....but nothing is for sure. Time will answer that question.)

Market Screener

The Conference Board January 2023 Press Release Indicates US and China LEI Decline and Possible Recession

The Leading Indicators Reports (LEI reports) by the Conference Board are hinting at recession in 2023. I'm not so sure but let us see what happens. A small dip won't be a recession but how the year finishes is important. Similar to them I project the 2023/24 interchange is likely to show strength (Perhaps digital economy growth heavy. I don't really like how the Fed defines digital economy as I think it can be limiting to the overall meaning. I might think of a metric for a broad calculation to show how much of the economy has now shifted to root digital transactions versus physical transactions. I bet we would find higher growth with digital transactions but that the calculation is using physical assumptions. It wouldn't seem like it would make a difference but a wrong assumption can make it through the chain and impact our choices. The animal spirits can have a mind of their own! Grrrrr!!!) 

My reasoning is likely different then theirs as I'm thinking about the ability of the market to accept digital shifts and adjustments since being pushed from the business necessities of COVID. Furthermore, I think the year might not be as bad as initially projected (Its just a thumb in wind assessment). Let us just watch and find out. 

There are a lot of factors involved and dashboards are excellent (They do come with some risks of missing information and data because of overuse. Always balance out your info and reading. I'm not saying that is the case, but I'm saying we often think about things from a similar academic lens. Its more general concept when it comes to dashboards. The researchers that put these ones together are very knowledgeable people.) Its nice to see the economy grow as we will need to be much more competitive going forward.

US LEI Decline
“The US LEI fell sharply again in December—continuing to signal recession for the US economy in the near term,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director, Economics, at The Conference Board. “There was widespread weakness among leading indicators in December, indicating deteriorating conditions for labor markets, manufacturing, housing construction, and financial markets in the months ahead. Meanwhile, the coincident economic index (CEI) has not weakened in the same fashion as the LEI because labor market related indicators (employment and personal income) remain robust. Nonetheless, industrial production— also a component of the CEI—fell for the third straight month. Overall economic activity is likely to turn negative in the coming quarters before picking up again in the final quarter of 2023.” You can gain more information HERE

China LEI Decline

“December is the tenth consecutive month in which the China LEI declined, pointing to slower growth in the near term,” said Andrew Dearborn, Economic Research Assistant at The Conference Board. “The only components to contribute positively in December were new medium- and long-term loans, machinery imports, and new real estate construction. Headwinds to growth in China remain as global demand slows and the property downturn continues, although there is upside potential as China reopens in 2023 after COVID-19 restrictions loosen. Real GDP grew by 3.0 percent in 2022, as reported by the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics, The Conference Board forecasts GDP growth to be 5.1 percent in 2023.” You can gain more information HERE

Update on Hate: The Importance of Community, Systems and Integrity

Community is an important thing and we want to develop our communities as much as we can to ensure they thrive in a increasingly global and nimble world. Sometimes there are people who hold beliefs that are antithetical to community building. While I very much wish that such situations never have occurred, they nevertheless did, and that requires a level of responsibility so others can learn to avoid the same mistakes. Its important to help perpetrators prior to them becoming destructive and/or radicalized in a way that wastes community resources and causing heartache in the wake of their path.

What Are the Issues?

The issue is that mental health, greed and poor values got legitimized through a hate projection process. Hate was just a tool to be used to silence good moral conscious and ostracize the targeted family in a way that seeks to pit some members of the community against minorities in their midst (A learning organization mindset needed for improvement.). While the initial intent was to be destructive, I'm not 100% sure they knew how far it would go, how it mixed with clan based bias of a few officers, and their inability to control whom was being targeted (That is why telling the truth should be encouraged and lying should be discouraged. These are still conservative values that still make sense.). 

Lesson on Hate: Poor values are often associated with hate and hate becomes a tool that once launched can grow wildly out of control through social mimicking.

Where there would be normal checks and balances they seemed almost non-existent in the initial wave of hate (Likely the same mechanisms that cause sacking of capitals. Semi coordinated efforts mixed in with efforts to mask those behaviors in group responsibility.) Instead of fact checking there were lots of assumptions and that exposed an internal default in a way that could be harmful to the community and still carries with it ongoing risks. That default ranged from the local social leader who started the problem all the way up the local system (I cannot tell you how far up but based on the slow response, lingering in decision making that hinted of not wanting to be wrong, and some of the maladaptive ways to deal with moral hazards, I would say all the way up the local system! That is why truth and wisdom are part of decision making.). Appropriate fact checking, fraternization policies, and "outside" system review might have veered the path. 

Lesson on Hate: The need for adjustments can help reduce the impact of the hate narrative on decision making and infuse additional evidence oriented processes. 

Once the dishonesty has been debunked and everyone sort of got an opportunity to stand back and look at how destructive they where, and relative inability to control their deep seated rage (inward projected outward), they began to see themselves in new light and that makes a big difference in future rectification. Good communities come to support and rally around higher moral codes embedded in human-to-human assumptions of safety and exchange. They have shown that while they may be gossipy and inadvertently spreading inappropriate information (Drawing a difference of rumor as information sharing and rumor as intentional manipulation)  at the end of the day they share certain American values. Therein lies the hope for our communities and our nation. 

Lesson on Hate: After the initial wave of hate it is possible for the general will of the people to correct against hate.

Not all things are rosy of course even after the smoke has cleared and visibility has returned. Those associated closely to this good old boy clan are not going to come out of their hate wrapped shell for a higher moral purpose anytime soon (I think in some ways they are also just buying their time.). I suppose it is a little like looking across the room at the people who tried to harm you and your kids and knowing more about them then they know about themselves. The color of one's skin or religion didn't cause this issue as it is comes from something much deeper beyond their conscious. A type of truth that comes from knowledge of some of the dark depths of human agony all the way over to what has inspired generations to grow. These are the things a lifetime of unique experiences can tell you in ways that most will never understand for themselves.

History should teach us the importance of community, systems and integrity ....and then you know why I'm afraid of saying too little. 😢 

Did You Know Half of People Earning Six Figures Are Living Pay Check to Pay Check?

I'm surprised that so many people who earn $100,000+ are living pay check to pay check. That would indicate a couple of problems. Inflation is likely eating up some of that. I'm not sure what the other part is. It might have something to do with lifestyle but it might also have something to do with the overall value of our wages going down year after year. 

Before I go on you can read an article in Fortune 'More than half of Americans raking in $100,000 or more are living paycheck to paycheck'

First, all of this is very dependent on location. Earning $100K in one place is very different then earning $100K in another place. Let us pretend $100K is real money and a family of three could live a solid middle class lifestyle and a single person could live with a few luxuries (People in San Diego would say they are poor and people in Escanaba would say they are wealthy. Big difference in housing costs.). 

Many technology workers and digital workers start in the low six figure range with advanced degrees or specialized skills. The difference being that some are confined to where emerging tech work is being done in expensive cities while others may move wherever they want but likely because of age demographics would be attracted to an expensive city.

*FYI If your a digital nomad you might want to check out Escanaba Michigan. They have updating their data infrastructure recently. Delta County Broad Band.  

Wolf Climbing Out of Frozen Lake Superior: Ecotourism and USDA Recreational Economy

This picture may interest outdoor enthusiasts. The U.P. has an abundance of wildlife and its an amazingly pristine place that attracts significant tourism attention to each of its 4 seasons. These pictures are from Isle Royale which is a preserve north of the U.P. but we share similar wildlife characteristics. If your traveling around the U.P. and looking for places to go make sure you check out some of the region's outdoor oasis. 

There are other towns in the U.P. that are also heavily impacted by ecotourism in one way or anther. For example, Escanaba is in the process of becoming a destination place for ecotourism and has become a significant investment lure for its marinas, fair grounds, ship building and papermill. Its downtown is waiting for tourism and start-up investors (i.e. custom golf clubs, snow shoes, etc...) 

Local communities like Escanaba (and Gladstone) should consider opportunities to develop their eco tourism economy. There are some resources in the USDA Recreational Economy PDF . On page 12 there are some grants that might apply to our local town. Since this blog is on national development we can see through the lens of a smaller community and some of their needs.   

*I'm in the process of looking for some grants for a grass truck for a firefighting station near the Hiawatha National Forest so some of this might apply. P.S. if you want to donate for our grass truck please contact HERE If I find anything that might be helpful to the community I will forward to the City Hall and/or post in an appropriate place. We are a small growing community so people hedge their resources to help where they can.