China Manufacturing Slows: Will there be a trend in Global Supply Chain Carving?

As relationships between the U.S. and China go through changes we will find the global market adjusting based on the sphere of influences and business connections that come from each of these powerhouses. China has recently experienced a decline in manufacturing and there may be many reasons why this might be happening. Let us learn together.....

Read the article Manufacturing orders from China down 40% in unrelenting demand collapse and particularly the piece on increased trade between U.S. and Europe and decline of Chinese manufacturing in China loses grip on global manufacturing.

As tensions rise there will be increased risk of geopolitical supply chain carving and that could impact manufacturing and economic, social, and business relationships. Companies will consider that risk in their manufacturing selection and may want to opt for North American, Europe, and other pro-Democracy nations where relationships are stronger (An opportunity for the U.S. to rejuvenate advanced manufacturing. Doors close and doors open.). 

The big questions might be.....

1.) Will this trend continue?

2.) What will the relationships between U.S. and China be in 5 years (i.e. investment purposes)?

3.) What are the places I can manufacture in the U.S. (Do we have a web index listing all of our manufacturers and is this index functional in a way that can help companies find alternative manufacturing plans?)

4.) Will there be an internal dialogue in China that seeks to understand the benefits of being the supporter of a global free market? Will they seek to reduce tensions and improve relationships in order to maintain international investment and business prospects?

A few misc. things of interest I found will exploring the topic.................

BLS has some stats on US Manufacturing Jobs, Employment Industry.

Gov. Cook on economy and productivity in manufacturing HERE. 

You may also want to read U.S. manufacturing sector contracts in November - ISM

Kind of an interesting study just came out about mapping Chinese industries geographically. Looks like some of the researchers are playing with machine learning. I sort of just found it while browsing on Chinee manufacturing trends. Either way you can read about it and gain broader knowledge of how different manufacturing economies operate by perusing China’s Gridded Manufacturing Dataset

How Does Ostracization and Hate Become Popularized in our Hometowns?

Life is about our social connections and our place within those networks (This is why we compare ourselves to others to find our potential value, worth, and place in society. We are defined, socialized, and often subject to those networks. For example, if you hate then you likely have people around you who have such leanings; whether online or in person.). Much of what we think and feel are real and objective are just shared agreements and symbolism among people (i.e. a soda bottle to people who have never seen one has different symbolism and meaning and it will take some experimentation to find its best purpose within that culture. That could be different based on the needs of that society.). Just like in the beginning of time when differences between clans (i.e. outsiders) were seen with suspicion we so too today see differences, outsiders and others with suspicion. That can sometimes create different rules for different people based on a lack ability to see others as worthy as ourselves (A point to be made here is that on a national level if people can live and travel freely within the nation we have a unified nation but if the unwritten rules change based on locality you have different societies within a larger society. embedded networks.). As rooted in personality, and influenced by culture (general term), some will be engaging, some will be unsure, and some will rage on difference. 

Those who hate difference often do so out of deep seated fears that have not been addressed or managed within their lives. So difference constitutes in many cases change, and change constitutes a type of threat. Its not really a threat of other but the threat of the inability to deal with change. Those who are least able to deal with change are also the most likely to hate. (This is partly why often misinformation and quick outlets for internal and sometimes collective rage can be a dangerous tool if wielded by people with mental health issues.)

(Just to clarify. Change in social status, change in roles, change in social routines, change in thoughts, and/or just about any other uncomfortable change which could be a normal and acceptable thing by healthy people but a scary transition for unhealthy people. That scary transitions causes people with mental health issues to do all types of odd things to avoid dealing with how they feel on the inside. See where empathy toward those who hate sort of makes a little sense? This is partly why mental health and domestic hate management are part of the same issue. i.e. MI track and solve.)

The particular problem occurs when some of our leaders are also fearful of change and fearful of "others" (It makes you wonder why some of our leaders ever became leaders. That outward confidence isn't matched by inward confidence. It only shows lack of self awareness. How has lack of self-aware leaders worked out in history or in our society? If we are electing leaders without self awareness or who don't hold our collective values primary then it means we have other issues as it pertains to some members not understanding the essential purpose of democratic vs autocratic rule.). These people influence others and in turn that creates social distortions, ostracization and suspicions of anything that represents difference or change. (Group fear factor and ultimately group control is managed like a puppet through removal of dissent and well planted rumors designed to reduce credibility. The more toxic the leader, the more likely they will demonized people who represent change as manifested through perceptions of differences vs similar.) 

(It always was immoral to falsely demonize others (i.e. casting stones) and many religious, moralists, historians and philosopher members of society have come forward to warn us throughout history of the necessity of inclusive values and the need for higher order thinking. Sometimes societies listen and sometimes they don't and it is all part of the same process and cycle of nations. Notice that societies are generally moving toward a more humane approach throughout development.)

Somewhere along the line self hate turns to hate of other which is sold to social associates as a way to justify bad behavior. We can only sell that hate through false rumors to people who already hold bias and in turn are willing to adopt the narrative of hate as their own personal narrative (People only think they own certain beliefs but usually it is a direct value system of their network. They just don't have the insight to see that. Few chart their own courses in thought.). They have already been socialized to perceive themselves in a more entitled way without actually earning those positions through performance (Most professional athletes and performers I have met are kind and polite people. For those who hate it is only the perception of superiority that is important.).

When it comes to hate facts don't matter. For example, as far as I know my family and I have not done anything to anyone. There were other factors than our "worthiness" of hate that may have allowed a large group of hate supporters to ostracize, spread rumors, and engage in behaviors that if unchecked could eventually be fatal. (If you research history before we experience known atrocities we have seen in other places there are certain beliefs/bias that became acceptable to "set the stage" or prime for worse things. It happens when you intentionally demonize, delegitimize, and dehumanize others. While that could be unlikely here it has happened in other places. i.e. Tulsa Riots and all too often unknown and forgotten ways. While most people are warm, good, inviting people there are a few who are not and we don't want their beliefs spreading to create normalization. See monkeys.) 

(People will do astounding things when given a narrative they can excuse themselves from personal responsibility. See electric shock experiments in Milgram 1963'enocide study. It makes you wonder under what circumstances and why we have seen this blind followership grow in social and political circles? 🤔 We need more free thinkers as a general process of positive adaptation.). 

Finding ways to hometown hate is important because it is a fundamental risk to our democracy as the rights of people to live freely should overshadow the rights of those to continue to believe that only people like them are true Americans/"Americans" (Americans with all of the rights and opportunities.). Hate is thus a social disease among the most damaged members of our society who do not feel empowered to deal with their life challenges as they come (Hate makes someone else responsible for one's own failures. Collectively or individually it is the use of a scapegoat based on someone's ability to exploit difference to radicalize followership and power. See Nietzsche 'Will to Power'.).

(Someone might ask what I'm going to do going forward? My strategy since the beginning was to be polite, engaging, visible, and a contributor to society. I will be easy to find and easy to talk with. Yet I won't sugar coat the dangerous behaviors that arose because that mocks the sacrifices of all the prior victims of hate and gives disrespect to all those American souls who died for our freedom. Silence through complacency or fear is part of the problem and why such disease spreads.)

(Its doesn't really have much to do with me or those who have done wrong at the moment. Its the bigger picture of how to detect the growth of hate and radicalism and how to find strategies to deal with it. Some people have seen the atrocities of this world and understand how such behaviors must be first "sold" to all too often open ears scrambling for solutions to their life's problems. The more we understand it, the better we can avoid it, deradicalize it through truth, and help it in other places. Worth or not worth something? That is up to everyone else to decide....I'm just interested in understanding. 🤷🤓)

B21 Bomber Unveiled: New Tech and Emerging Tech

Very cool digital era technology with plug and play components that can be updated with new tech as it develops. The military is thinking about getting the most bang for the buck on overall structural design and improving govt-industry innovation to keep certain components updating (opinion). If anything, it does show signs that the U.S. is not only adapting but is starting to think of looking over the horizon to better managing the consistent change of modern life needed in the protection of the Republic. 

Strong Deterrence Enables U.S. to Ensure Global Rules, Rights

President Biden Signs Rail Shut Down Resolution Bill

President Biden signs the Rail Shut Down Resolution Bill. You can read more in the Whitehouse Press release.  You can obtain more information about and read the actual bill at H.Con.Res.119. An interesting article in Logistics Management. People are going to have all types of opinions on this so I'm just going to post the information in case its important to readership, business, and whomever else. 

Financial Incentives to Hate: Set up #2 Refocusing on the Essential Purpose of Institutions

 We have found through previous writings and the research that hate often has mental health aspects based on the false distortions of self-perception on those who engage in hate but also from their social networks that have come to accept certain demeaning symbolism into their decision making (i.e. the "other".). What we often don't discussion is the financial incentives to hate and how that can be an important contributor to those who transgress common values. 

First, no legal system is going to be perfect. There are mistake, there are people with different viewpoints, it doesn't see everyone, have God's insight, and in many ways it is fighting against a prior legacy where the large swaths of society maintain some skepticism (This is the biggest danger to society is when institutions are seen as not focused on justice. I'm not saying that is the case here but I'm saying there are lots of moving parts and while justice often tries to do the right thing it might not have a full grasp of what life is like for the "average" person; even less so if people "love to hate". Different systems and stakeholders will have different views on what justice looks like in any particular situation. This is why we need diversity, as defined across multiple aspects of life, throughout society so we can gain a wider perspective.)

Everything in this life is a choice and a learning opportunity that comes to define us as individuals and us as a nation. I have learned the hard way that once you, your family, and people like you are seen as "undesirables" lots of other factors make their way into everyone else's decisions; of course decisions they want you to live with whether you like it or not. A problem being that the targets wear the risks like a gold star. You can see this occur here where social support among a Good Old Boy (including the ethnic, racial, sports, and other defining characteristics of that clan) allowed certain shared societal values to be circumvented (Trust me I'm as confused as you. 🤔 ). This is why we have state and federal stakeholders that have opportunities to correct the wrong (That is why the proof is always in the pudding, the choices, and the outcomes. If we are 50/50 on justice then it is because we are 50/50 in our decision making and 50/50 in our deeply rooted values. If local institutions default then it is because the people that were elected, appointed, and hired to those positions hold values that allow such systems to have secondary missions that are not stated publicly.) 

 Set Up #2(of 4) "That Person Has Lots of Money" 

A day or two after Set Up #1 I walk into a local establishment (it has no reflection on the establishment) and I notice some people who were associated with the person causing the issues (Keep in mind that I'm not 100% sure I understand what is going on. Thus far I'm aware of general aggressive commotion, was already put in harm's way twice, my children recklessly treated, a large group of rude/aggressive people, multiple officers and departments involved, a missed attempt to cleanse, and lots of unknowns in front of me. See decision making uncertainty while under threat. Keep in mind I haven't made a whole lot of conclusions yet and was in the gathering info stage. As people acted and reacted to my, and children's presence, the more information I gained.

(Its not the first time I been in a situation where I had to make big decisions over limited, intentionally masked, and misaligned information where the outcomes could be final. As a general strategy, I look at all the options, re-evaluate my model each time worthy new information becomes known, go back and check my assumptions with devils advocate criticism, and then select those paths that are most likely to be chosen based on currently known information and determine the best defensive strategy. I will also check that counter strategy with the most unknown pathways with limited data just incase there is a curve ball thrown in that was impossible to see at that time. Its a little like completing a 360 evaluation of the problem from many different angles and paying special attention to the areas you don't have enough information. 

The kicker....guess what happens sometimes after getting through a complex decision making metrics? I'm sometimes still wrong and to make up for errors of judgement one might want to ensure they keep their strategic position in a place with the most potential options as new data becomes available. Where is that place at the end of all of the complex calculates, possibilities and probabilities. The truth! Its hard to go wrong with the truth! 😲 )

A few people invited me to sit down and started asking me about my job, career and things that I'm doing in my personal life (I did feel it was odd that they were very concerned all the sudden but there is no harm in chatting and at this time I wouldn't know why they took this sudden interest.)

They asked me questions about what I do, any research I'm working on and other activities I'm engaged in on a personal level. They were polite (meaning they were aware but not sure of the full intent to do harm) but seemed to think I was lying about everything I'm saying but didn't specifically call me out (They were making me responsible for their lack of knowledge on such topics. For example, I tried to explain that I'm looking at how to collaborate multiple industries on specific R&D projects that speed innovation through cross-industry knowledge sharing that leads to innovative synergy in a way that it solves specific government problems that also benefits participating industry through product/service market leading radical development. That also may have included a discussion on how infrastructure and national development policies impacts the root business platforms, i.e. like the Internet, in a way that influences the overall performance of an entire economic systems and all the subtransactions that rely on the platforms infrastructure.  Long story short is that if you put the right elements in the right place at the right time with the right budgets and the right market needs you can develop faster cross-industry innovations that utilize an export and information driven infrastructure network to move products from the prototype stage to the worldwide markets and off the shelves into households. Kind of like what the toaster did. I call it  economic transactional innovative clusters. A few other researchers see something similar. Its simple! I don't understand why anyone would be confused? 🤷)

Either way, as I became aware something isn't exactly right I walked over to talk to someone I know very well. One of the ladies directly associated, and a beneficiary of the "hate game", stated to me in a rude fashion, "This person has lots of money." and gave me that kind of "now you will see" look (It seems subjective I know! Yet very out of place unless there was a purpose to telling me that. Yes I might be able to explain in detail her body language, keen interest in what was going on, her reaction when I walked in, and her tone, pace, implied, meaning, etc.. but to the average reader its not going to make sense and I would have to pull a lot of research on paralanguage to explain it.)

(I used to teach communication a long time ago and think I could explain the facial features and behaviors that would give a fairly solid insight into intentionality. However, there were four people present and a few more that were not sitting with us but came over and didn't seem happy with how the group was acting. It wouldn't take much to ask them what they knew and when they knew it! Names, dates, times 🤔) 

If someone had prior knowledge and they were intentionally misrepresenting information that would be criminal in nature and an attempt to manipulate the system for self gain. FYI most of them were not fully aware of how they were being used as tools for a potential crime. It only takes a few core members to coordinate character/hate narratives to dehumanize and damage the reputation of others. We don't want this to become a legal method of obtaining advantage over families in our system.)

(Let me add something important here because we understand things better as we grow up. There were other people who have said other things about missing money that I would not really have understood at the time they said them. It wasn't in my mind people could do such things. That includes an accountant, a guy that used to work in the trust department, indications of 2 different documents, a lady who worked at a bank, etc... More information puts prior discarded information into context.)

(Hate narratives are unfair and immoral no matter how low, deprived, inhuman and useless the targets seem to be. I'm making a point that beyond the law, beyond the politics, there are some very fundamental things as a society we should look on with disdain. The intentional manipulation of information to create harm should be in many ways a universal "no no". It makes no difference if your President or Pauper.)

Not All Things In Our Society Are About Money!

Forget money for a second! I love money but there are limits to its true value! While money is important it isn't the most essential thing to our lives (We can't eat it and we can't boil kitchen water with it! See Anthropology of Money ). If the laws are designed around the technicalities that help enrich certain people at the expense of others so be it! Yet let us not consider how immorality can grow and spread as a socialized value system when we allow certain behaviors to go forward without consequence.

I would much rather have the system donate misappropriated, stolen, embezzled, and/or manipulated money to charity than allow the perpetrators to enrich themselves from bad behavior (I know a few good charities that would help children and kids the rest of their lives versus the short term buying habits of the perpetrators.). From a broad perspective I think as a root value societal value system most people would understand my key points because they are essential to an orderly society.

Consider that at our deepest roots we are a single society and place that union based value system in our artifacts such as our Pledge of Allegiance, Our Constitution, and even within our courtrooms with various forms of ,"I pledge allegiance to my Flag and the Republic for which it stands, one nation, indivisible, with liberty and justice for all.". These are our professed values and those that live those values are walking the talk and it makes no difference their color, creed, position, religion, education, etc... (See how a universal value system negates the lower form of judgement and replaces it with higher forms of perception based on essential shared truths. Success, failure, opportunities, justice, etc. should be based on the merits of the person and not the "class/kind/other" of people.)

As values passed on from generation to generation they become he essential shared perspectives that allow us to maintain that single entity perspective. (Think about its essential meaning and its universal value application that create trust for the majority of society. Except extremists, repeat criminal offenders and those engage in corruption where such values mean little. There are some challenging and distorting those messages for personal power and gain.). When such values become systemically disparate it will eventually erode that trust; a place no nation ever wants to be!

To me its not about money or being cool as judged by a homogeneous group that has a history of caddyness, rudeness, and "better than thou". Whether true or not true, just a good story, a moral lesson, a dirty lie, or the ramblings of "those people" we should put these actions into the context of a bigger national perspective (Our nation just like economies are based on the outcomes of information, values and choice.). Its not so much about the who but about the what and how that takes precedence in these issues. Its only an opportunity for the time of a bat of an eye to glimpse into the other half of the country (Defined by how and what type of "American"/American people see themselves. An argument for a more universal and shared perspective.)

These artifacts of morality and shared values are not written on dusty useless pieces of paper long preserved in some historical library for school children. Instead its a living and breathing document of truth many of us must encounter and face every day. We display them within our institutions to remind us/them of their fundamental importance to maintaining the good health society! (With the sacking of the capital, rise in extremism, political acceptance of hate, and political immaturity of both parties have shown that our great nation current has a health issue to monitor).

No matter what happens I'm at a level of peace with it all. The heightened darkness by which some are willing to walk, and those that support them, cannot be justified for money, religion, skin color, power, sports ability, politics, ethnic affiliation or close connection. The law should always chase morality and if we reverse that polarity then we are lost in the technicalities of orators and the leaves of the tree become much more important than the health of the entire ecosystem.

“Shared meanings—their expression in social practices and their representation in symbols—actively shape money as a tool of calculation, as a material form and as a means of creating and sustaining differences in social hierarchy and rank (Dodd 2014: 294)

We have found through Set Up #1 Mental Health is often at the root of such hate and through Set-Up #2 that there may some tangible financial and other benefits to hate (Hate as a manipulative tool for power over dynamics). We still got 2 more to go so lets just hold off on any final conclusions. 

Dodd, Nigel. 2014. The social life of money. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press

Detroit Economic Club: The Outlook for Monetary Policy and Observations on the Evolving Economy

This is was a fairly interesting Detroit Economic Club speech as Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook visited to talk about lots of interesting things as they relate to our current economy. Hosting those who are in the center of national decision making on important issues provides insight for the business community. 

Remembered that policy impacts the economy in different ways and businesses should consider how policy impacts them and their operations. Staying on top of the news, meetings, conferences, etc. gives one a feel for the current economic trajectories.

-Labor productivity isn't growing as much as hoped. The 20-21 years productivity soared as people stayed home and businesses continued to function (I think this has something to do with information sharing increase. Perhaps just like when the Internet started there was a rise in productivity. I'm curious why it increased. You may want to read this interesting study on how universal internet access in the U.S. has flow output impact 3 X Covid and makes us more economically resilient to future catastrophes. In this case I agree that without the Internet the COVID pandemic might have brought the U.S. to its knees but we had one foot in the Digital Economy and many of our businesses adapted quickly. I'm curious about 2023/24 interchange. Adaptability led to a stronger economy than expected. Anyway....you can read the study HERE.).

-I agree that looking at long term trends are important but we should keep in mind anomalies such as COVID. The do weird things to our economy and create challenges and opportunities.

-I agree advanced manufacturing and creative development (I added the last term) are two ways to create sustained innovation and long term wealth through the creation of market driven products/solutions.

-While corporate R&D development is a central innovation strategy there are times when co development of multiple important capitalistic industries (i.e. widgets) and government industries (i.e. space, military, etc.) would shoot multiple birds with the same stone (i.e. innovative clusters and butterfly effect).

-Robots and wearable tech (Wearable tech is an extension of human skill and helps keep us adjusting and changing as a species. Robots are important but we should always keep in mind the need to have people incorporate new skills based on challenges from their environment. We must continue to learn and grow from generation to generation. The foundation of every state is the education of its youth. – Diogenes.)

-I agree that looking or alternative data sources, questioning the data, and knowing the data's limitations is important. 

- Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook mentioned he wanted to stay on Lake Superior. Lots of great places but my recommendation is Munising (....of course after stopping by Escanaba to see the underutilized economic potential of this town with its infrastructure, affordable downtown for entrepreneurs, tourism, natural resources and industry. Squint your eyes and keep your imagination! Wouldn't it be super cool to build something specifically to solve some current challenges and to capitalize on the emerging digital economy? Just in case you don't know where its at here is the Google Map 🙏)

 

Who is likely to be an entrepreneur? EM to EI in Business Development

A small saw mill in the area. Entrepreneurs! 
That could impact local construction, furniture,
and other local industries. A question?
Could reaching out to regional entrepreneurship
graduates be a good pool to encourage to
relocate and start a business?

Entrepreneurs are important for the local economy and the long term health of a nation as a whole. Knowing who is most likely to become an entrepreneur and how to attract them is worth a pound of gold to those entities that hope to spur new economic activity. Typically, starting more small business (mixed with larger businesses) equates to additional investment and an influx of capital.

For example, in the town of Escanaba Michigan there is a need for new entrepreneurs who can help put life into and enhance the downtown in a sustainable way. If you don't know much about Escanaba it is one of those small Northern Michigan towns in the UP that has all the underutilized essentials needed for future growth. Visit Escanaba.

What a study of students found was that an entrepreneurial mindset can lead to entrepreneurial intention in a way that encourages entrepreneurial activities (Al-Ghazali, Ali, & Sohalil, 2022). The study further helped understand how the right encouragement and education may increase the available pool of those willing to engage in future entrepreneurial activities. 

While the study is more focused on understanding the entrepreneurial mindset (EM) and how that turns into entrepreneurial intention (EI) we can postulate that if local governments understand the key factors that create an "entrepreneurial mindset" we may be able to encourage and attract such people to open a business within underutilized entities such as Delta County (Underutilized means that many of the necessary resources are there and could be enhanced with investment and economic foresight. Not all localities have under utilized resources because they don't have such resources. Escanaba has things like a small tourism draw, an affordable downtown, local industries, industrial infrastructure, and state/national/global economic trends swaying its way.)

Let us break it down a little more. It would be nice to know who is most likely to start a business based on certain entrepreneurial characteristics, who has some existing capital (i.e. $100K+) and a good idea might be matched with someone (and a local support package) who can help them move through the process of brainstorming, finding additional capital, navigating regulations, finding facilities, and ultimately starting their operations (i.e. Escanaba downtown..)

Al-Ghazali, B, Ali Shaw, S. Sohalil3, S. (Oct. 19th, 2022.) The role of five big personality traits and entrepreneurial mindset on entrepreneurial intentions among university students in Saudi Arabia. Frontiers of Psychology, Sec. Personality and Social Psychology. Retrieved https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2022.964875