Friday, November 11, 2022

Happy Veterans Day-Democracy will Persist!

Our veterans have seen the best and worst of mankind. They know all too well the risks to democracy and the sacrifices that are needed to maintain our freedoms. Most have first hand account and memories of what a lack of freedom and democracy looks like on all too vivid scale. They have visited places where race, religion, and ethnic differences were exploited to commit the worst humanitarian disasters (They also worked and fought in units where racial and religious differences didn't even cross their mind.). 

Many of our veterans know what it takes to uphold democracy and they know all too well what the world looks like when people are stripped of freedoms (or perhaps never had them). They are the ones who upheld our essential American values while the world collapsed around them. They stood tall as the ground turned cold. We raise our flag high on Veteran's Day.

Its more than that isn't it? We must live and honor those hard earned passed from generations of sacrifice in our home towns and in our institutions. When we fail to live by our ideals we must correct our course because even veterans can be targets of hate. The lessons veterans have learned about democracy cannot be easily disseminated to those who have not experienced the same breadth of life.

As an experienced people I encourage our veterans to be involved in their communities, their nation, and even in politics. I think they have something to say about how Democracy will Persist! 

(If you would like to see some of our veterans who are continuing to serve you can look at the Congressional Veteran's Caucus)

Thursday, November 10, 2022

NASDAQ, DOW, and S&P500 Rises Quickly on CPI Lower Inflation Expectations

The NASDAQ, DOW and S&P500 stock rally is expected to last throughout Thanksgiving. There has been a bump because of signs inflation rises are slowing down which reduces some future investment risks. Nov 10th 2022 CPI From BEA. We want to understand what happens between economic data and how stock markets respond. CEOs, investors, and even politicians want to understand stock markets in order to raise value and capital. (What type of actions create large scale stock increases? From an older study we might see broad based economic announcements have an impact. Perhaps if we looked at all the Bull & Bear markets and cross analyzed them with announcements/events we might gain insight historically. We can also consider that major events such as stopping/starting oil, Russian conflict, supply chain issues, etc. create market volatility. I would also suspect anything that is known for decision making to impact the economy is likely to have some effect i.e. a large scale infrastructure innovative improvement that lowers elemental transaction costs through synergy. What we can say is that lower inflation has broad impact on many markets so changing that is like changing a fundamental ingredient.  )

A couple of articles I really like:

Why the Nasdaq Is Soaring Even as Inflation Remains High from the Motely Fool

Markets Soar on Signs of Slower Inflation from NY Times
 

Wednesday, November 9, 2022

Competing to Win, Manufacturing in America: Detroit Economic Club

Manufacturing in the U.S. is one of key industries that not only carried the U.S. to unseen heights after WWII but also has received increased attention in the post-COVID world. Manufacturing has moved into the spotlight and of renewed interest as the global conflict rises and supply chains are disrupted. The video from the Detroit Economic Club is from two weeks ago but it is an interesting discussion on how to back manufacturing to the U.S. and what these manufacturers need to grow. Some of the of the key points relate to regulation, what people feel, hiring, and education. You can check out the Detroit Economic Club's page HERE (Its worth the visit and influences business policy). 

Key Notes and (Thoughts): (Don't expect it to be perfect. They are like notes and key points. Also application of a theory I'm writing.🤓)

-Manufacturing is hiring lots of people. 12.9 mil. people. The economic value of human capital.

-6 job seekers per 10 open positions.

-70% of people feel govt. is on wrong track. Biggest Threats

-Listen to lawmakers and take the nuggets of knowledge without being party constrained (Scientific and divergent minds should consider all of the information from any side before coming to a conclusion.). You may read something on the civility in politics

-Energy and workforce issues (I advocate or diverse plug & play energy and human capital development. The system should continuously push toward efficient, cleaner and renewable.) A little article on efforts to protect the electric grid and how to help industry protect from natural disasters like hurricanes to manmade events such as Russia Banning Oil

-Red tape, delays and regulations often slow business. We need some method of getting things done in fairly quick fashion (i.e. streamlined regulations). We must still protect our environmental health as a key future business component so some oversight is still necessary (Most industries have no idea how connected they are to the environment they create. Its the beginning of the life chain.). There are some responsibilities to not only protect our current systems (i.e. Great Lakes) but also clean and improve them.  (Government should consider setting a minimum standard that can be used to push industry to adjust while also maximizing opportunities for industry to self manage and stay ahead of the curve legislative curve. The more business takes initiative, the more freedom to self regulate and influence policies into workable frameworks that helps the environment and business at the same time. We will need either a win-win between government and business on the environment or we will need global regulation that creates the same playing field for everyone. Considering that American businesses seek to protect the environment, and other countries are less concerned, the costs would seemingly be a short term disadvantage. To me, the more flexible approach government and industry oversite practices can settle on the more we can focus on building our nation in a healthy and sustainable way.

-Michigan Manufacturers Institution: Develops skilled workers for advanced manufacturing industry. 

-Business should become part of the educational process. We are one society so we should be grooming our students to be ready to take important positions in our economy as well as having the skills to contribute in civil development. Industry also should provide key insights into what work skills they need from graduates. Industry often determines what specific skills they need while Academics determine the skills that advance society as a whole (i.e. Industry-Competency model as one method to better ensure skill creation and infuse that within the general knowledge needed by society.)

Values that made America and Manufacturing Strong: free enterprise, competitiveness, liberty and equal opportunity. (All business, economy, and the fabric society are based in maintaining certain shared values. Some have tried to misuse that but we must keep these as the higher higher vs. lower principles we follow.) Read about leadership and innovation

-Competitive tax rate for small and medium business to encourage investments (Delta County MNC example.).

-How infrastructure impacts manufacturing industry

-Research tax deduction to keep us competitive.

-China challenge needs a whole nation response. i.e. Chips legislation and semiconductors. ☝

Monday, November 7, 2022

Military and Irregular (IW): The importance and the necessity of "thinking out of the box"

Firing Range at Camp Swezey
1943 All Chinese American Unit
US Army Airborne and "Flying Tigers" 14 Air Force
The military world is changing and has been on the path of movement from large ground troop invasions to highly specialized force incursions. As we are updating and changing our military into a Digital Era warfare system we must keep in mind that similar trends of adjustment will occur on low cost militaries (and large scale) that don't have access to emerging technologies (As one strategy/resource adjusts other militaries adjust to find a competitive position. Large armies have formal hierarchy with designated resources while non-traditional irregular armies {i.e. ISIS, Taliban approach, mercenaries, insurgents, amebic groups, etc.} will utilize low cost with amebic structures to their advantage.)

We created the Irregular Warfare Functional Center (IWFC) with the passage of the Mac Thornberry National Defense Authorization Act of 2021. One of the goals is to attract and develop leadership from multiple sources within the DOD and leading universities to tackle these issues. (Its a very long document so not sure anyone is really going to read it but you can see the table of contents. One of the points to be made is that fields of study begin to specialize and now we see how emerging new technology and low technology coexist as two different fields of investigation. An example is research on Higher Ed and how there are topical changes/"Islands" and gaps that leads to further investigation and specialization. HERE. Sometimes requiring exploration into related fields through a methodology of transactional clusters theory might lead to butterfly development across many fields and industries {new products and development is important. i.e. discovering something that impacts military, auto, space and outdoors as the same time}. One can do this by occasional analyzing the other potential uses for different levels of discovery by allowing industries to collaborate and explore potential. It increased research breadth and improve adaptation and economic growth from those sharing fields. Its mostly an additive process.  A sort of related topic on islands of new knowledge.

There is an opinion piece that I think is kind of interesting HERE. (I like Austin so whatever whatever but there are a couple of interesting points being made). I do agree that we should engage in serious study to explore the ability to fight a large scale war and multiple small scale IW campaigns at the same time (There is some discussion on whether or not we can fight two major wars and I still think that is a good goal. One could also consider multiple small scale IW designed to slow down, trip up, and thwart emerging secondary threats in their formative stages but can be be used as a supportive resource. Highly mobile secondary systems that can use the best of methods to help small nations/people defend themselves as well as form up to be substantive if a major conflict deterrent if necessary. By doing so we are hedging multiple large and smaller scale strategies through new lines of military science that can counter different forms of threats on a spectrum. As IW develops it should help prepare American units to counter the strategic positioning of others. It also offers an opportunity to develop advanced strategies for more formal training and equipment development. IW will bring different equipment needs. Likely small scale multi-tool outdoor wearable technology. 

You can read the job description for a IWFC Specialist as it is kind of interesting. They are not currently recruiting but if the Center gets more traction you never know!. Feel free to read the LinkedIn IWFC Specialist description. If you got those skills and abilities you might want to reach out to them anyway. Our country always needs good people with advanced skills stepping forward to make a contribution (That is everyone in the country has a stake in how our democracy turns out and our ability to maintain our democracy governmental system in a world where some actors are challenging our destiny. No restrictions on race, religion, or other protected value systems when applying. Don't let some the politicians confuse you political and self interest....we are all on the same team with different strengths and opinions. If we {or some} are not on the same team with shared long term goals it detracts from our national competitiveness.)

Sunday, November 6, 2022

Spending Time in Big Bear: I Still Think of Mountaineering and Climbing. (The Outdoor Industry)

Purchase Digital in Gallery HERE
Big Bear CA is one of those places where people love to have weekend getaways and downhill ski, hike, fishing or hang out on the lake. It is also a place where you will really enjoy the outdoors. Its about 7,000 feet above sea level so its not way up there but you could notice a little climate change and a a touch of thinness of air.

Mostly it is just a place to vacation and live nestled into a mountain surrounded by nature. Residents remind me of people who live in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. They are a little isolated, surrounded by nature, and everything is very clean (You can read about an analysis I'm currently doing on how to attract businesses and outdoor recreation to Delta County Michigan. HERE.)

When your in eclectic places like this I often start to think about climbing and mountaineering. I started a little on that path about 5 years ago and was thinking of maybe training to climb Everest (I still sort of think of it but time and age is moving forward.). Something to do and to do it for a good cause!

Purchase Digital in Gallery HERE
Life circumstances change but I also see where it is possible again. While I'm not sure if I would make Everest I might still start engaging in more climbing and mountaineering and just see where that leads (Hiking, climbing, camping, rappelling, navigating, etc.). Not all the time, just enjoy the outdoors, and engage it on a fairly consistent basis.

That is part of balancing life. To fulfill these inner needs to explore, understand, and overcome. There are just some who are built as explorers and some that are not. Adventure and outdoor sporting are not for the faint of heart but are worthwhile augmentations to "normal" life. Our nation was built on explores, dreamers, and those who dared to be different. 

There is a reason why so many people flock to the outdoor lifestyle and why it is a growing trend. You can read an Outdoor Industry Report HERE. "Outdoor recreation accounted for 1.8% of the U.S. GDP in 2021 with $689B in gross output and 4.3M jobs."

Purchase Digital in Gallery HERE

 
Purchase Digital in Gallery HERE

The Outdoor Industry Association (August 22, 2022). 'State of Outdoor Market Report: Summer 2022. Retrieved Number 4th, 2022 from  https://outdoorindustry.org/resource/state-of-the-outdoor-market/#:~:text=Key%20findings%20from%20the%20report,output%20and%204.3M%20jobs.

Friday, November 4, 2022

The Difference Between Active, Passive and Indifference to Hate and Its Systemic Risks to Democracy

Most of you know my family and I have been targeted by a group of people whom I have no issue with but who owe blind loyalty to certain members of their social networks (They became an easily exploitable tool because they already held preexisting bias that could be radicalized. A small minority of members with corroded values could influence a much larger group to become supporters on one level or another. It isn't unique because its my family but it is unique because its a good example of how things might sort of work on a real granular level within our American communities. If it is true and common it creates system risks to democracy.)There are things I learned beyond the awareness of how quick you can spread rumors and act against "worthy" targets (Think back to when we did this at other times in history. ie. Tulsa massacre, Nazi regimes, Rwanda, Bosnia, Confederate south, etc..,  There are lots of them. Its called scapegoating and its dangerous and immoral. Its when the rules and laws are thrown out the window in preservation of a misaligned social order often based in perceived superiority of aggressors. The problem is that superiority is more a function of delusion than fact While they cannot compare on this level we can say that the same underlining mechanics are at play and with continued free hand someday we may find such behaviors growing. In many ways, I suspect if I was a different person it would have turned out worse and no one would have said a word. As of now it looks like most people know different aspects of what happened but everyone is now silent; spite a few who as of a few months ago continued to cause problems.). The power of words can be wielded to resolve issues if we hold closely to truth or they can be destructive when we cling to the profane and immoral (Notice how proper use of words can can create positive change while negative use of words can destroy. Our institutional leaders should know the difference between constructive forces and intentional destructive forces. They are not that complex in terms of intentionality. One doesn't need to be a genius to know the difference between love and hate and how they are mirrors of each other. Until we have insight into hate we won't be able to resolve future issues as they arise. Let us get to the process of learning. This is a good opportunity to tackle the free pass shortsightedness, improve the overall system while at the same time helping those who caused the problems.

Active Support of Hate: These are the individuals who launched their hate network for social and financial gain. They were embarrassed about their behaviors in the past (long stemming issues of spreading rumors and acting in personal and financial self interest) and tried to keep them hidden by projecting onto the targets. Long stemming racial and religious concerns resurface and become a decisive break (You have to protect our children and draw lines no matter how many people line up to get involved. Notice this word destructive. It confuses some of our politicians, judges and leaders as to how behaviors are inherent in each of us and there is no superiority based social structure but only superiority when the poo poo hits the fan and people can't rely on those social networks to support them. ). Some of the members of this clan acted on hate and were more than willing to violate laws (in many ways unaware of the law but their conscious should have guided them to a higher order.) in their attempt to cleans their community. Anyone within the system could be an active supporter of hate that includes, police officers (The vast majority are not like that.), college administrators, attorneys, and just about anyone else (While it has social roots it is still an individual choice to oppose wrong doing, step away and engage.). Such people are willing to act on their hate even when their behaviors are are grotesque (Remember they knew they were immune before they started. It would indicate a prior discussion and agreement on how the cleansing would occur and under what mechanisms. It appeared to have a smirky strategy that involved preplanning.)

Passive Support of Hate: These are the people who may know the behaviors were wrong but feel great social pressure to be participants in a community cleansing. They may be the ones who know it is immoral, don't want to get involved, but will make decisions to support their subconscious bias. They may or may not know always be aware of their feelings but through winks and nods, be transferrers and manipulators of false information and in turn give the social cues its ok (That may include judges, people who support hate but aren't aggressive themselves, those who know its wrong but agree with the premises, etc.. They are not evil people they are just people who have their own beliefs and when they can support those beliefs without doing anything that would get them in trouble they will do so. The  more sociably acceptable and normalized these behaviors, the more like you will find passive support turning into active support. This is why a free pass is the wrong approach and leaders must use their moral conscious.)

Indifference to Hate: There are those who are indifferent to hate. They don't have the experience and have not been on the receiving side of hate. They just don't understand how distorted hate and ostracization is and how crimes are often swept under the carpet. They don't know it can break the very fabric of society and likely will be the one thing that will push this country into second place (i.e. hyper politics, unaccounted hate, and perversions of law to protect networks, lack of opportunities, active harming of "less worthy" communities/people, etc.) They just don't know what they don't know and you can't really blame them. Is just not their issue until it becomes their issue and they may not understand what all the hub bub is all about (Hope they don't have a future child or grandchild that people in society love to hate and watch how quickly they will be aware of the bankrupt values of others. There are a few others familiar with who have had similar experiences like people screaming racial slurs under their windows and engage in acts of intimidation. All ok I guess if your a "local".). 

I would add Afraid To Oppose Hate: There are those who know that hate is wrong but they don't feel the social and personal power to stand up against it. In this case there were lots of people who knew what was going on and many didn't say a word. Some were extra polite and engaging (The good people). They also knew it was a large group of blind monkeys (they likely didn't know that term) acting unfairly and immorally against a family. They also knew the perpetrators and their histories of rudeness, loudness and "better than you" attitude but they know the consequences of having a moral conscious at the wrong time so they choose to be silent. 

Our laws may be written universally but it is often up to others to administrate those laws and they may have issues that they also are also struggling with. Sometimes they may not have the right information (intentionally false, hidden, covered, or misrepresented investigations and information), they may not have the knowledge to decide wisely (perhaps they don't understand hate.), or perhaps they may have their own political, religious and ethnic leanings (lacking impartiality based on closeness of social connection or affiliation with certain characteristics.). Or maybe there is something that we can't see from where we are at and in turn must be open to many other explanations (Always be open to alternative perspectives). 

The problem is that allowing certain behaviors to stand unaccounted does weaken our democracy as the laws and rules that were to apply to protect all of us is used as personal clan law to protect some of us at the expense of others. What happened here was highly immoral and dangerous. It was beyond sadistic and opened a major crack in society by exposing the hidden bigotries that were just beyond the surface (If you study language long enough you can follow the logic and underlining assumptions to understand the essential values of the group. An important question becomes now that they know they have these bias how will they act after? That would be a defining moment on who they are. So far it looks like the answer is also apparent. You can read a group language study HERE. Politics isn't just politics. There must be an anchoring to shared values and that is our freedom of religion and freedom of speech within the Constitution.) There were indications that it has happened at other times to other people and there was an attempt to shield those who did it against account or correction (See how behavior is repeated and spreads. Few people have the capacity to chart their own course. Most just follow pre-existing patterns of behaviors based in culture, family, and understanding. See Freud and Markov). That creates a long term risk against the target family (and others this group doesn't like) as behaviors have become increasingly normalized and protected as "acceptable" ways to deal with non-locals (Locals not defined by genetics in the area i.e. Native American or history  i.e. longevity of family lineage in area but by which people this group likes or doesn't like. It takes sacred things and gives those who do not have the capacity to understand them and have a history of violating them the power to decide the lives of other Americans. Its grotesque against some very basic rights. Yuck!)

If any of this is true even on the smallest level it would be a pretty big concern in a nation that is moving toward a higher state of development of a universal democracy with global appeal. If it is not a concern it is a hint that we are either stuck in our lower performing national development and/or a sense that democracy is backsliding (There are some international reports that we are backsliding.) Because we have seen this in history we must always guard against legal games that deplete the connection between morality and law (i.e. moral conscious and the poorer reflection in law. This is where the proof is in the pudding. It is either ok or perhaps its not ok?) as well as hold tightly to the rationality of law (theory and applied).

You have to decide, just like the people who supported hate, what type of person you are, what do you believe, what is your future for America, and who is invited to build our nation. If you are the type that America seems like is only for some then you might want to ask what happens if someone like you becomes powerful and can make decisions over others without checks and balances; even if your not qualified to make decisions. Read the ethics of might over right and its existential risks. Ask the initiators whether they feel remorse and embarrassment over their behaviors and if it seems like they will be chastised they will say nothing but as soon as they get within their clan it's all high fives. ...and then we should ask ourselves what values we should support as a people? Then our actions, choices and values become apparent.  Thank God there are still people who believe in freedom and justice.  For me it was a defining moment.

Thursday, November 3, 2022

Do-it-Yourself Market Growth Expected to be Worth 1,278 Billion by 2030 (Boat Example)

On the docks. Unfortunately, it was
taken with cell. Professional camera
didn't save the pictures.
There are some people who like to work with their hands do things themselves because they enjoy the process of creating and fixing things. We have tinkered with our environment since the beginning of our species and it has led to some interesting discoveries and societal advancements. In recent history we have become more inclined to hire expensive technicians with specialized training versus tinkering to our own solutions. For some that trend is reversing and Do-it-Yourself market is growing rapidly. Let me tell you why through a story of my boat.

Do-It-Yourself Market Size:

First let us understand that the annual growth rate of Do-It-Yourself market is 38% and it is expected to reach 1,278.00 billion dollars by 2030. You can read more about that HERE. The market is imperfectly defined leaning heavily in housing repair as one of the most common do-it-yourself expenses. (It says the market study was published in 2022 but it seems a little older than that. I'm also not sure of its source but much of the material is cited and it makes sense. I would suspect this was a firms market study that was eventually released. Either way its relevant enough to get the point across. There is another study with some trends HERE

Sense of Accomplishment:

For me, I enjoy engaging in my own project because I like accomplishing something that comes with building, creating, and fixing something. There is a type of enjoyment that comes with the time spent figuring out a problem and researching the right products that create resolution (Matching of practice and theory.). Much of the process has to do with solving practical issues with everyday knowledge. Learning something new and developing my own handyman skills at the same time in a way in it can be practically applied to things I need to get done.

Sometimes I fail and that really stinks! So unless I take my time I generally do not fix anything that is critical for survival (As I do a lot of outdoor stuff and one mistake could mean its all over.). Anything that is critical to the functioning of safety would either be done by a professional or inspected by one after (i.e. electrical work or a major repair on a boat engine. I like to watch professional mechanics, and could likely do it if necessary with some additional study, but I know the risks so I minimize them by having someone who knows what they are doing. Everything else is fair game! )

Benefits of Do-It-Yourselfers

I think this market is growing and that is a good thing because 1.) knowing how to tinker and fix things leads to innovation when people have the skills to build something unique to their problem; 2.) Do-it-Yourselfers can save a lot of time and money in a way that makes people less dependent on specialists; and 3.)  these skills grow in the general population and are transferred into skilled trades. (Where I grew up in the Upper Peninsula we have a lot of people who do their own handyman work.)

Sailboat Stanchion Example:
The Anatomy of a Boat
American Sailing Association

A broken sailboat stanchion led me down some interesting paths of a project. I had a marina slip neighbor for a short period. Well dressed guy, big corporate attorney I think, a little bit of an attitude, had just bought a very expensive wooden toy (It looked painfully expensive). Of course he didn't know how to use his new toy so he ran it into my sailboat and broke my stanchion (Sailboat people are romantics and expensive speed boat owners more about image. I think I read that somewhere.). 

As a smart attorney he apologizes and brings someone from a local boat works to fix the problem so it doesn't need to be reported on his insurance. Great! I'm all for helping out my neighbor! Not a big deal I nod! (I don't mind if it actually gets done. In hindsight I made a mistake in being too nice. Just FYI.) Except, afterward the stanchion felt very loose and would wiggle under pressure (I would be afraid someone grabs onto it with their full body weight).  Furthermore, I noticed on more than one occasion a little musty water made its way into the room below so I tightened to no avail the the drainage hoses. 

Anyway, apparently he didn't pay these "professionals" very much because they did a seriously subpar job. I was left the options of either paying someone else or just doing it myself. I opted to take my time and take care of the job and be done with it (There is a lot of work that goes into maintaining boats so you either love it or you sell it! I been working on this one for a while and its getting close to completion. I would like to take it and sail up and down the coast maybe. Perhaps do some charity racing or plastics research. Figure it out eventually. Maybe I will just sit on it and have coffee. ⛾).  
Stanchion Bottom.
Bigger backing, strong topside base,
caulking, and bolts.
 I think I need to paint that ceiling.
Its storage but still the work never ends!

In general, I would say a job like replacing a stanchion would be about $1000 to fix correctly. Doing my own work saved a lot of money and it cost me $50 ($950 and my labor time was taken out of the market but likely to be spent somewhere else. i.e. home improvement, vacation, investments, dinner, gas, etc.). 

Before I started my project I did my research and watched videos, asked questions, outlined the holes on a piece of plywood, and did some simple planning. It wasn't as hard as I thought. I took out the old stanchion bolts (By the amount of effort I had to put it, the other guys apparently didn't take them out at all so I'm not sure how they really expected to fixed the problem. i.e. likely why it leaked.). 

Marine sealant UV topside, a bigger backboard to create additional stability, new bolts, marine grade caulking between the board and underdeck, and I was finished! Easy peasy! Of course there were measurements, drilling new holes, and the other boring activities like online research that goes into the project. The heavy rain the night after I replaced it helped me feel more comfortable the stanchion no longer leaked (Water off the deck runs right over the stanchion.). Problem solved!  

Not only did I do the job right, I learned a lot and saved money (I know someone out there is going to say I didn't do it exactly the way I should do it. Ok! That is the do-it-yourself market!) While I'm not an expert in do-it-yourself repair, I seem to do pretty well at it and things hold up (If they don't I do it again and do something different. It means I missed something). Knowing how to construct basic things and fix small items is important for people. Because of my northern woods background, love for outdoor adventures, and general need to know these things I take up the opportunities to do my stuff all the time. 

Post Covid I think people also have come to appreciate do-it-yourself activities and I would like to watch the trends a little to see if they continue to swing upwards. Having a college degree is great and having construction skills is also great. I came a little from both worlds half blue collar and half small business owner. Continue to learn and develop new skills in a way that not only saves you money but also allows you to take care of your own projects when its needed.