Annexation of Ukrainian Territory and Calling Up 300K Reservists Shows Expected Escalation

Putin has certain characteristics that are likely to use the same tools of escalation to raise the stakes and costs of engaging in conflict. The latest move is to annex parts of Ukraine and call for reservists. Putin drafts up to 300,000 reservists, backs annexation amid war losses. Putin mentions NATO threats of nuclear use. I don't see that. It sort of stands in contrast to the overall intent and historical perspective. It seems to be a PR strategy to rally is home base.

From a strategic position I believe Putin is struggling with declining popularity. He likely is going to try and redefine he conflict as a defense of Russia and by annexing such lands he is legally (by Russian and not international standards) saying "These are Russian lands and Ukraine is attacking us!". I wouldn't believe he would find support, historically its likely to be rebuffed, but after what I have seen over the last 5 years it looks like you can sell salt water to the ocean.

This is why I say the Ukrainians and the West should be always mindful of the need to shift and adjust strategies if needed. Putin is not the type who takes losses and embarrassment lightly. He has a mind that always scans for options, openings, and ability to create leverage. He may be miscalculating the potential bigger risks that come from using the same/similar tools to solve a problem in the same way that it was created. This propensity to repeat strategies/approaches is based in personality, training, and experience.

I would also add I doubt he would use bulk mildly trained soldiers alone. This something Russia has historically done in their in the past with peasants. Having a route of a much larger force would spell the end of Russia through global condemnation and internal dissention. Thus the level k unknown factor could include new equipment from other areas, infused with more elite troops, and emerging equipment from China through ideological aligned allies. 

Thus maybe the time of increased global competitiveness likely has started. This is where our US leadership should consider putting down their petty grievances and start working on innovation and human capital development. My arguments for universalism of institutions are sometimes seen as silly and they are one in the same to our national development to the next economic stage and unlocking of human potential ("Just like us" is likely to become a major national risk. So I encourage proactivity and development of of our most precious resources.). How do we convince our leaders to look beyond party politics, self interest, ideological silliness and over the horizon to emerging problems? Let us see what happens....

We can't solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them. Einstein

When To Accept a System Is Unable to Correct Itself: What Does That Mean for the "Law of Land"?

There are times when we must come to accept the system is not ready to change and move to the next stage and that while laws are written universal they are not always applied that way. The power for change is not enough to overcome those who are against change. The Constitution and Bill of Rights are written on paper but have not been fully implemented within our communities and hometowns where racial, religious, and social networks often take precedence over abstract "laws of the land". Democracy is still shifting toward a higher state and while we have begun that transition we are at risk of further defaults.

I am not so arrogant to admit when I'm wrong and my greatest attribute is that I have been wrong a lot and know it. I believed whole heartedly we would overcome this challenge and do so within a way that was helpful to the deeper needs of the root causes of rage the perpetrators displayed. We should do so in a way that ensures the system adapts to become stronger. In many ways I overestimated the capacity of the system and did not factor in how deeply rooted such "just like us" biased beliefs lay and how they impact entire chains of legal, moral, and logic/truth thinking. 

Just like those who engaged/coordinated knew they were immune from account (based on their association and support for cleansing of some law enforcement officials) and confident in that immunity, I was hoping to create a level of helpful accountability in a way that doesn't harm and sets in place a stronger adaptable system more aligned to modern thinking and needs. Don't blame me for being skeptic because if you have Muslim sounding name and mixed race children you will realize throughout your life that what is stated officially (explicitly) and how things turns out (tacitly) are often different in a way that creates shared knowledge (implicit) among those deemed as having less value in society. This is also why social turmoil is happening at perceived or real injustice (Sometimes the calls are fair and sometimes they are biased but its hard to decipher the two. What is more true is there a general distrust of the decision making of those who are supposed to be supporting justice based on historical failures that continue on into the modern era.)

There is usually a silver lining to embedded hate and what we can learn from hometown extremism. What was a pleasant surprise was that most of the community has provided positive reinforcement that my kids do have value, that we are part of the same community, and that despite this highly aggressive group's behaviors their values haven't spread to everyone. There is still hope for democracy through the moral conscious rooted deeply into our human-to-human affairs. The power to pervert our institutions is often checked by the power of togetherness (I hope for everyone's sake I'm not mistaken again. I'm on a roll of misjudging the system's capacity but at least I can create a feedback loop for our leaders; not that they will listen to people outside their social groups. Chances are based on politics they will ignore it but someday it might be very important and I have an obligation to the next generation beyond blind politics to state what I see as the truth even when doing is likely to end in retaliatory justification.). 

Thus while some institutions run against the grain of the needs of the people and their stated missions they exist within a social context and in turn I believe will eventually be checked and brought into line through the power of our collective consciousness (People know when things are wrong and they know that short sighted pro clan decisions have serious long term consequences.). That would be natural as these local institutions are expected to be projections/mirrors of society as a whole and not the extensions of the wishes of a particular ethnic, racial, homogeneous sports group, or "just like us" good old boy network. 

Aristotle is Challenged.
Rights go through 
cultural transitions. 
Universalization is just another 
stage in democracies 
development. 
Culture versus Reality

Such distorted values have an impact on our youth and our nation as seen as a growing distrust of such institutions as we have seen as a trend in other nations that were pushed to radically adjust based on social, political, and economic necessity. For example, we see currently in the news that our military may threatened by obesity, drug use, and other problems our youth are facing. Yet when it comes to kids that are seen as minorities there are no/few protections when they are put in harm's way even though they are important for our futures. Instead of embracing one of our most sacred duties as a human species we allow the devaluing of kids simply because they are "not like us". Protecting your kids leads to all types of double down aggression by the initial group, their law enforcement supporters (Again just a minority of officers and what potentially appears to be a local judge. i.e. third defaulted institution. That does not apply to the many very good local offices who have a value system and follow the Constitution.) (Half of U.S. children are now minorities and it is important to ensure all of our most cherished human capital assets, highest calling of democracy, and very soul as a nation are protected. The problem with hate is it is irrational and destructive. "To cut off one's nose to spite one's face".)

On a deep intuitive level we know that we cannot serve two masters at the same time and the Constitution/Bill of Rights (Freedom of Religion and Freedom of Speech) and our moral conscious must be our guide (Free passes for hate and embedded bigotry do have long term national consequences even if they occur on a local level. I believe these problems are likely happening in a lot of place and just like this no accountability or safety mechanisms are in place to ensure accountability.). Universal laws must also be applied universally through universal institutions to ensure that we are solving the most problems in society through greater human capital development and alignment of natural law with societal law (i.e. the purpose of democracy).

When and where that large correction will happen I cannot say but I can say as a nation we have become increasingly aware of it and thus it is only a matter of a short time before the wrong circumstances present themselves. That is the danger of intentionally free passing hate at various places and times. Perhaps in the next 10 years as people consciously define these violations of Constitutional and moral guidance more clearly for mental consumption and understanding.  Thus one door will lead to national adaptation and the other will lead to dissolution similar to nations that break down into ethnic, racial, religious, and Good Old Boy strife.

My belief is and always has been that there are solutions to these problems and those that continue on in poor behaviors put the rest of us at risk through their selfish immaturity. Thus what happens on a local level impacts the health of our entire nation; especially if commonly experienced.  Thus I always encouraged our leaders to take on the position of positive engagement, looking over the horizon, forgiveness, positive pressure to change, polite but not passive, community engagement, and general ability to rectify problems at their lowest common denominator. Encouraging them to do the right thing of course doesn't always mean they will. Many times they wont because that may require them to be insightful and change.

Unfortunately, as a person with a Muslim sounding name and mixed race children I'm an "outsider" defined not by genetic longevity in the region but simply by superficial markers of those who engage in hate. History is full of people who have challenged poor behaviors, have been retaliated against for having a value system (I do not pretend I'm a perfect person but that I'm a good person) and in turn were proven correct in history (Consider the examples of our more well known preserved histories of philosophers and religious figures. I'm not that worthy to be put in that light but only that they are examples. How quickly we discard their lessons when they are inconvenient or don't flatter our sense of self. )

“I care not what others think of what I do, but I care very much about what I think of what I do! That is character!” – Theodore Roosevelt

(As a side note. I will continue to support my community and help people where I can. I do not feel the local system is designed to protect what is seen as "outsiders". Unlike others, I can't say what happened was acceptable and appears to me to be deeply and inherently corrupt. In protest I will not call 911 if I am targeted again {unless something changes} because I do not believe it functions to protect me or my children. We are just too different than the local institutional decision makers. If my children are targeted again I will document such behaviors by making a call and doing what I can to protect them but cannot place my trust in that system. That does not take from my duties to help others nor the encouragement of the majority of good officers that are trying to do the right thing. The problem is that the proof is in the pudding and a free pass for any cleansing behavior is not acceptable and a sign that the top of that system is not making accurate decisions. So if we are going to give a free pass we should let that group know that I will no longer utilize the local system as a protection and as a deterrent. Personally, I believe the local system should be removed from having any decision making influence on the subject/situation. They have shown they do not cherish our American values. That does not take away from my responsibility to positively engage, help my community, volunteer, encourage healthy behaviors and do the very best I can to draw resources and opportunities. Yet I will not sugar coat the dangerous behaviors or the need for major overhaul of a defaulted local system that appears to seek to please its aggressive racially-religiously leaning Good Old Boy networks. Of course I could be wrong and likely there are many more things going on than I'm aware but at present it seems untrustworthy to me. At this point I'm not seeing where I could logically say what happened was ok or acceptable. No matter which way I slice the bread it seems dishonest, aggressive, racially-religiously charged, coordinated, self-enriching, and dangerous. Those institutions that intentionally defaulted should have been held to account and forced to improve their system to avoid such defaults in the future.)

So What Do We Do With Hated Oriented Sports Groups? Laws, Rules, or "Just Like Us"?

There are places in our country where the laws cease to function as expected and become oriented toward clan, identity, and Good Old Boy networks. While its easy for many judges and politicians to wink and nod hate it isn't the same for the majority of society that has seen this special treatment occur in many places and at different times. As a nation in development we must move to a higher platform that recognizes the value of all Americans beyond those "just like us". 

"Just like us" can really apply to any group of any particular racial or religious background and our current trend may show the folly. However, in this case a highly dysfunctional-aggressive sports group has been able to circumvented our laws and downed at least two (possible three) institutions without a level of necessary correction (It doesn't mean anyone has to be in trouble but without dealing with it they will likely feel embolden to act that way again when/if similar circumstances present themselves.). 

While they may not be currently engaged in active ethnic cleansing now the subtle forms of micro aggressions, ostracization, and rumor spreading continue (A smaller minority were engaged in active ethnic cleansing but their irrational and unsubstantiated hate was acceptable to their group indicating a level of poor values have been "normalized". Healthy group members would have challenged these aggressive behaviors that were not in line with our American values.). 

What shocks me most was the intentional effort to target a family that I'm not sure anyone can say has done anything to them. Further their close association as a Good Old Boy network has been able to take down 2 different institutions (1 department out of 4. We have also seen this at our capital where some law enforcement members engaged in hate based activities and don't feel there is anything wrong with that. This is an example of what could happen when laws don't apply to some because they are "just like us"). As a nation we can't blindly give people who started such issues a free pass and I suspect that is based on similar identity and perceived similarity. 

This is where state and federal law should step in to enforce the Constitution of the U.S. No one necessarily needs to be in trouble but there should be an attempt to ensure we are protecting Institution 1.) checks and balances between social/hate groups and law enforcement; and, Institution 2.) ensure local colleges don't reject candidates based on ethnic, social and religious affiliation (Its very third world!). 

However, this is just a walk the talk value system and in today's environment we don't often enforce our general legal rules thereby creating cultural splits that develop two functionally different societies of different expectations (Expectations are the most dangerous part when people believe deeply based on repeatability and experience that the rules only apply to some and not to others. This is where the damage really happens and where large groups will split for their own protection and safety. Its deeply rooted in self protection and need to feel safe and we can't change that with flowery words or quick sound bite politics. It takes genuine commitment to the health of the entire nation.). Half of Americans are not sure the institutions will uphold our cherished values and the other half (some of them) are emboldened that the laws do not apply to them through their perceive ethnocentric entitlement. We need to universalize the entire system.

Before you get excited I'm not a bleeding heart liberal. I'm a conservative that believes in our essential values of freedom as a nation and that there must be integrity in our systems. When local systems default it is necessary for state and federal systems to come in and enforce our national values. Without doing that we may have problems where local entities can carve out their own small nation states as indicated by the varying rules, laws, economic opportunities, and values (Not always defined by actually being local but by being connected to the Old Boy network) and non-local (Often defined by people who this group dislikes and people that are what we would historically be considered minority. One can be a local or non local depending on who this group is targeting and the institutions that blindly support that network.)

Of course we don't have to stand for our American values and could opt to stand for some other nations values. 🤷 We can allow illegal, immoral, and intentionally harmful behaviors to continue even if we discover them occurring in our hometowns. I suspect we could diminish the value of generations of people who strove to ensure we have rights in a way that makes the U.S. unique (I personally don't feel that is wise but some think its ok.). That should make some people super excited! No laws! No Constitution! No generation to generation striving! No Values! All in support of people "just like us"!

(If true we might have a situation where different laws, rules and application would mean that there are classes of people with some being "untouchables". Its not what we profess and is against our historic development but it would be indicative of a different sort of system forming within our current system. There is no free pass for hate. It just goes into the collective conscious and becomes juice for something else. We are a connected species and we are designed to share and empathize our experiences in a way that eventually creates group understandings, perspectives and beliefs. Are we one nation or two? That will determine how we handle such situations and how we approach a future national reckoning. My suggest has always been to have integrity, solve problems at their lowest common denominator, solve them early, look over the horizon for emerging problems, put down politics, and become a universalized learning nation. Others seem to feel being destructive and dishonest is the way forward. )

Before you (some of our leaders) get too excited about someone with a Muslim name calling out bad behavior consider I might be trying to avoid the future consequences that are not so yet obvious to those who are self involved and self focused (Time always answers these questions so if you disagree with a fair system then just wait and see if we overcome or not. No reason to be upset. Take a sociological perspective on universal laws applied subjectively based on ethnic, racial, and religious backgrounds and see where that has led other nations from a historical perspective. We should learn from history and review our demographics and ensure people feel connected to and trust our institutions.). We won't effectively compete with two halves of society where the laws, rules, economy, and human values are dissimilar. It takes away the incentives for human development and replaces it with an undercurrent that will need to be corrected in the future. The problem is the longer we wait, the bigger the problem. (i.e. the fall and collapse of the Soviet Union was based on lost human capital and lack of incentives for personal development. We have an opportunity to not follow suit in our own way but that will require a level of national human capital development that can't lock out what is now the simple majority of society.) 

So who is the American/"American"? Those who pervert the laws and moral conscious or those who stand for our American values even when its not popular with the masses. If you think the answer has something to do with similarities to your race, religion, party, background and other false symbols you are on the wrong path and have become part of the problem. That problem is only beginning to surface in an era of digital media and I encourage our leadership to be a little more enlightened to the development of human capital in our nation (Success should be based on personality, character and skill but not on superficial differences.) 

Me, even after being targeted, I'm happy it was me versus someone else. I'm also happy I have a chance to contribute to our national development of moral conscious and national strength. I'm saddened by a mob of people and their supporters that are too frail and immature and shortsighted to stand up for their American values. I'm also saddened that we have accepted these different rules and don't seem to understand why we need a universal system. I know we will change because we likely will increasingly become aware of the difficulties associated with the awesome power and some challenges of managing a diverse nation (Its only a problem if the wrong people with the wrong values try and managed people they don't understand, respect, or can't effectively lead. If you only support one group and act in such a way you have to accept you can't lead the others who won't trust you. )

(As a side note. I see our current political situation and I see how we blindly hate the other side and vote for people that are better at selling sound bites than actually solving important problems. Its both Democrats and Republicans that must come to share the human capital national development vision and recognize the the necessity of removing roadblocks in a universal manner. If we continue to vote for short sales slogans vs logical arguments, connected insiders vs. the most qualified, and attractive faces vs. quality of character {Some of us don't have to worry about artificially inflated hallow effects as we have to earn every vote! 😅}we are going to struggle immensely when complex problems need real solutions.

Putin and Xi Meet: Does it Having Meaning? Opportunities and Challenges for the U.S.?

It looks like the recent meeting Russia and China is an attempt by Putin to deal with the current loss in Ukraine (Be aware of the Ukraine-Russia conflict not being over yet as Putin seems to have a personality that doesn't just give up and walk away based on a single loss. Things will likely move more into the covert domain where he feels most comfortable and allows issues to be out of the eyes of the public. We may even see more military activities and/or new equipment coming into the conflict and boarder. Maybe or maybe not? Let us wait and see but always be prepared! 🤷). There are political reasons why he is engaging with China as to show he is trying to strengthen Russia by partnering with ideological allies in a way that helps internal dissenters feel as though he is effectively dealing with the situation (i.e. from a PR standpoint he is going to blame people under him for not providing good intel. That is only likely partially true but as a leader for his military he should have known one way or another. He didn't create an atmosphere where people feel free to communicate. That is the danger of overly top down management where power dynamics are at play.). 

Ukraine was strategic for its ports and maintaining what Russia viewed within its sphere of Soviet influence. Being beaten into a military route exposed the weakness of the Russian military and lack of sophisticated equipment to counter adversaries (Innovation historically flourished under capitalism. We think that is because of hard economic points but its actually based on human capital and motivation. This is also why in the U.S. we don't want to over concentrate wealth and opportunities into the "connected" upper crust. It should be a best and brightest issue where anyone who is willing to climb can achieve great things if they can use their unique skills and abilities effectively. Race and religion shouldn't factor into that and if it does we are still stuck in an older framework with the wrong subconscious symbols.). China is building sophisticated equipment, while slightly behind the U.S., it is important to consider the risks of that innovating in parallel to our own (Why we will be forced to change and that may come with some reorienting our politics to solving problems and not blind party loyalty that does little but create yes men/women. Not something we need in a learning nation that is built from open mindedness. I would like to hear people's unique ideas from both parties.) 

Based on ideological similarities there is likely going to be increased trade between the two nations to ensure communism oriented perspectives maintain their regional supremacy. This is where the U.S. will need to think about winning in Ukraine doesn't mean we can let up in our national development. If anything it should have done the opposite and taught us the necessity of advantages. We should strive to see over the horizon and create those advantages where we can.

We will need to overcome some human capital legacy issues that have been slowing our full development to match skill to innovation. That also means we should think of new models that can launch both our military/space and manufacturing industries forward so that it attracts further investment interest to create a sustainable economy. (I know! I know! I have a Muslim sounding name! I'm not expected to know much or achieve much. 💩 Maybe we should encourage our leadership to open their minds to the possibility that democracy is in a state of development and we must get it over the hill to unleash its awesome potential on a new platform. Or we can just argue endlessly as opportunities slip through our fingers.)

Putin concedes China has ‘questions and concerns’ over Russia’s faltering invasion of Ukraine

Brookings Institute: Opportunities to strengthen and expand supply chains in North America

I was looking for something else but came across this. The U.S. is at a unique point in their history, based on the push into the Digital Era catalyzed by Covid and world conflict, to return to the central stage of advanced manufacturing. There are opportunities for economic development and human capital development/enhancement. If you take a broad look at the environment (i.e. environmental scan and global mindset) the iron is starting to look fairly hot for striking. Being the center of the supply chain and one of the best places to invest through the advanced innovation (innovation clusters) can lead to long term national health. That is if we get our politicians to put down their petty grievances, sideline those that detract from our future, and work together to solve problems. Right now other issues seem to be of primary concern (Vervet Monkeys). We need the best and brightest to rise by opening the door to human capital development development as wide as possible. Just like we transitioned from nobility to the merchant class we are now moving from the "connected" to a more inclusive nation where actual skill is important (Not because everyone wants to but because we will have to run at our highest capabilities. It is in the best interest of everyone.) Wait a minute before you judge what I'm saying.

Freedom TO Hate but Not the Freedom FROM Hate

TO and FROM are different words and apply differently to hate. One is projected onto others and others is in defense of such projections. Freedom has becoming increasingly confused in our society where freedom to hate starts taking precedence over freedom from hate. Until we flip flop these concepts where one has more rights to protect themselves/others/family then those who engage in hate targeting we are eventually going to have a societal upheaval. 

While we might have opinions on people's races and religions we don't get to project those onto others. . Worse, we don't get to use our institutions as extensions of that hate simply because we are aligned to a certain group or clan. As frightening and backward as it sounds there are people still doing this! It comes down to essential root values that left unaddressed risk our democratic future (Why I advocate looking over the horizon and fixing problems before they become bigger problems.)

Before you get excited this isn't really just a minority issue anymore. We are a nation of minorities and the situation can apply to multiple different peoples with different backgrounds so it is something we must master. Most are stuck in their limited perspective through their own ethnocentric subjective reality (Not race or religion specific.) . As a diverse nation we must ensure that those who want to cause harm are not given preferential treatment over victims based on distorted symbolism and logic (Our symbolism is in transition and that is why there is some commotion and social upheaval. It takes time for new ideas to fully embed into our culture and collective conscious and make their way throughout our institutions. Republicans and Democrats will likely be on similar perspectives when it comes to human capital development.)

I have seen hate in action and the free pass given to those who felt they were immune from such behaviors (In many ways they were but not all the way. Lots of grey area.). It didn't make logical sense to me from an evidence based standpoint but I must admit there are many things in this world that make me scratch my head (The wonders of life and people.). What I can say is that while most people and places try to do the right thing there are those who do not. Some pervert and circumvent the law to maintain lower order values. 

To me and the situation I saw its not about "getting people in trouble". It is about creating an atmosphere of improvement 1.) helping those who have highly aggressive personality traits resolve those issues for the safety of others (help them and others); 2.), ensuring there are greater protections for targets when they draw red lines; 3.) proper barriers between friends, clans, groups and law enforcement (i.e. to ensure they are not able to skew the purpose of law enforcement or misuse authority to ensure that authority and its value are retained for protecting and serving the community); 4.) ensuring institutions don't circumvent their missions for bigotry or social gain (i.e. local college misusing tax payer dollars and violating Federal Law to support their ethnic/religious homogenous networks); 5.), making sure community complaints are investigated (To protect the public and maintain the purpose of law enforcement); and, 6. reviewing the incentives (including manipulation of the elderly for financial gain.).

When you and your family are the target and you request a protective boundary and people triple up in their aggression to violate that boundary there is a problem with that group. That becomes even more apparent when they cannot see perspectives outside that group. When local systems default in protection of their friends, clanmates, and ethnic group we have deeper issues at play (i.e. meaning it is a pattern that likely was used before.). 

This is where the legal system should consider the rights of Freedom TO Hate (No such thing) and Freedom FROM Hate (What our social contracts were designed to protect). It strikes at our nations beginning, purpose and future! I believe in learning from every situation. We must leave the door open for reconciliation and a better way forward but we can't sugar coat behaviors least they skew our development as a people. Its bigger than this situation but does give good insight as a model of what could happen under the wrong circumstances and lack of checks and balances. All good karma!🤓💓

J.P. Morgan Indicates Softer Inflation Landing: Recession, Investments, Infrastructure, and College Level Human Capital

Exciting times in the news as the world's economy adjusts and shifts to a post COVID world! It looks like some recession indicators offered by JPMorgan may not be as strong as expected. This is the soft landing many are hoping for as the Fed could have possibly acted in a way that cooled the flames just enough to let inflation simmer down without pushing the U.S. into a major recession. 

First, let us sort of discuss the landscape. Europe is expected to go through some type of low level recession but that remains to be seen. The U.S. I suspect will do better than many other nations (i.e. a good place to invest with a changing fundamental economic landscape.). It might be a good time for European leaders to start working more closely with the U.S. on shared economic goals. 

There is an interesting article Recession or resilience? Here’s how the U.S., Europe, and Asia stack up that discusses how the U.S. may be resilient during 2023 and China has some structural issues. What I'm concerned with is the 2023/24 interchange as strategies developed during COVID are fully implemented in the U.S. (i.e. digital economy in the U.S., infrastructure, CHIPS, etc.) and how structural limitations could hamper Chinese growth (i.e. not being being the only or best place to invest.)

Recession impacts everyone within an economy and few can escape all of its fallout. I suspect the richer you are the more shielding you have as you don't need to budget for things like groceries but you might need to budget your 3rd or 4th home. 🤷 

College students graduating during a recession get hit very hard. Recession Graduates: The Long-lasting Effects of an Unlucky Draw Helping college students get employed right away in meaningful jobs is helpful throughout their careers. Likewise, ensuring we are graduating college students with the right skills is helpful.  

As a side note:  The energy sector may have some good investments. Yippie! I keep my eye open for some investments. Not that I have a lot to invest but you know just a little cookie jar stuff. 

Global Economy May Avoid Recession as Inflation Risks Ease - J.P. Morgan