Where Michigan Voters Stand on Candidate Polls: Why GOP Needs New Candidates

If your following Michigan politics you might want to read this Poll: Where Michigan voters stand on races for governor, secretary of state, attorney general. What it does indicate is that the GOP is struggling to regain a foothold in the state after a few unfortunate mishaps. I'm a light right Republican centralist who has no problem with good Republicans or Democrats taking office (I lean right as an "Old Guard" Republican. A RINO-DINO combo! Depending on how the terms are used and who is saying them. 😏). So I try and see things as clearly as I can for better understanding which is not so easy in a world political skewed conversations. 

I have no idea if I will ever be in politics. I thought about it once but found out its very difficult and there is a lot of good and bad in it. Not knowing all the answers up front (not that anyone knows all the answers) often would mean I would appear to know nothing. That wouldn't necessarily be the case but it would come across that way (One would need shorter, simpler and more easy to sell answers. How to balance that with the essentials of truth would be difficult sometimes. Can you imaging saying, "I don't know yet but I'm working on understanding?")

What has hurt the Republicans were some mishaps (wrong people in wrong positions) based on association and not qualifications (remember that social class and best and brightest argument I bring up sometimes.). A few investigations, proximity to some radical GOP elements, picking connected over qualified (Yes Dems do this as well.) As a larger state society (from a collective species standpoint in the way we interpret, information, trust and events) that may have stung some people the wrong way. There will always be people who vote strictly party line but the centralists are likely to have much more sway in future elections. 

I believe based on some of these mishaps its an opportunity for the GOP to move more toward the centralist pendulum. I believe there will be a sweet spot in political leanings once the current environment is corrected from misinformation (Misinformation creates polarization and radicalization of the masses). That is where ideas appeal to the most amount of people, bipartisanship is possible, and things are getting passed in an impactful way. Effective government is different than noneffective government and both sides own the problem. 

I liked some things about Dem. Gov. Whitmer and thought that she could have made a good VP. (She might get another shot at it from the Dem side) Of course I have policy differences based on my Republican leanings on some things and again lean right on fiscal responsibility, certain values, and beliefs. That of course doesn't mean I don't respect the person....but could debate all day long about the positives and negatives of certain policies (That would be any governor or person in a position of power and isn't exclusive to her or Democrats in general.). There would have been many things I could see eye-to-eye on (Effective politics shouldn't be all this or that. Politics is the art of influence and compromise in modern democracies. If you can't compromise your not really into politics. Think about it for a second of the essentials of democracy and debate.)

My recommendation for the MI GOP is to move more toward the central position, discuss policies and not subjective perceptions of persons, and focus on solutions that can be sold (Constant bashing of the person from either side reduces the trust of the institution. Skepticism rises.). I would probably give slightly different advice to Democrats but that really isn't my focus (Its not like anyone will listen but you know sometimes I get things right. I have a Muslim sounding name so there are some who debate whether I'm actually America let alone Republican. 😏 Also a hint to our next national challenge of broad based human capital and innovation to make sure the republic is resilient and competitive. National development is a process of choice and mastering sequences of challenges. It is based in group development. Why its important to constantly look over the horizon and find solutions instead of underdeveloped ideologically skewed arguments. Oops I have a Muslim sounding name and am not seen as qualified to comment on such things or move out of my social class from a wider societal perspective. 😬 That may also change someday as we realize our bias is our own worst enemy...mine too...but definitely societies. Implicit and explicit values and messages of socialization. See dissertation. All American or "dirty dirty" Muslim? I'm actually a Muslim, Catholic, Jew who has found wisdom in Hindu and Buddhist teachings. 🤷 The Seal and Oath, Truth, Integrity ). My mental model is national unity and problem resolution above individual party politics. Time will tell......

Interesting reading from a sort of pseudo social science perspective Trump or Not Trump, Neutral in Debates, Pence Rides Elephant, Republican Split, Change in Party Focus, John McCain.

(P.S. that isn't a support or criticism of any current candidates. It just observational in nature and generally non specific for a reason. Your understanding is based in your personal development and my ability to write a good story. Reverse Learning and Eagles Eggs Just Saying. 💁)

**The poll also includes their methodology which I think is beneficial for people who truly want to understand how polls conducted. 

Why I'm Beginning to Support Liz Cheney and Mike Pence as Reasonable Republican Alternatives (Avoiding the Call for Civil War)

Professor Barbara Walter, a political science professor from University of San Diego, indicates that the U.S carries some risk of Civil War. See Insurgency Risk. She states there are risk factors and the U.S. went down low to a 5 and then bounced back to a healthier 8. While each civil war is unique there are some shared characteristics often based on the strength of our institutions and our support of things like rule of law (In my opinion which looks like it aligns with hers.)

Some of the risks we face are that the far right is pushing politics to be defined by racial and religious demographics (See article). When we begin to do that we also run the risk of mixing our politics with very deeply rooted self preservation issues and that can lead to a false perception of justification for violent bad behavior (i.e. replacement theory, popularity of conspiracy theories, stolen elections, etc...).

While I would like to go play golf with Trump (I'm just making a point) and could learn much from him about his big business deals I'm not sure I would want him to be our president. He seems to use the same tools for different problems and we need more cognitive flexibility in a complex global world. A win at all costs is sometimes not the best approach for long term national health. 

What I do believe is that I respect Liz Cheney for her ability to stand up for certain principles and Mike Pence for his capacity to block an obviously dangerous move (If we find she was right she might become a very important person with a shot at future presidency. Not this election cycle but perhaps a few down the road.). You can see many of the other candidates blindly following without thinking about what they are saying, doing or the long term health of the nation (Because it is personality based you will find that once distorted values take hold its not party specific. Its cause specific. Yet in this case the far right has moved really far right so they are self-confirming false information . World Inside-Outside Groups.). Our big GOP donors should probably be supporting these two candidates (Whole Nation Affair).

Do I believe that civil war is coming? No....we aren't there yet. I would suspect about 20% of our society is willing to engage in violence to get "their" way (right and left) but it is enough to create chaos. Such extremist far right groups would engage political hits, try to silence opposition, and coordinate general chaos building (i.e. eating ourselves from the inside). The would be in essence true domestic terrorists (Notice how its not race or religion specific. Dugh!!)

I would suspect that some of these groups have been working with foreign intelligence (I said this the moment we found documents uploading and within a few hours of the non organic sacking of our capital. See January 17th, 2021 Uploading Documents, Russian Election Interference, Capitol Riots FBI, Weapons of Media, US Summit, Cyber Attack, Biggest Threats, Hagel in History ). Its just an opinion with some support. Investigation and time will determine truth (I could be wrong and be ok with that....its a probability and not a fact. Right and wrong means little. I hope I'm wrong.)

No matter who wins in the next elections I would encourage our leaders to focus on solutions, support rational centers, and our current institutions (judicial, DOJ, FBI, and intelligence communities) to work toward discovering and thwarting any groups (whether right or left) that believe in violence as a political, racial, religious, or legal solution. If Trump does get prosecuted it could mean short term chaos but it is unlikely to be able to last long (Its not a fact just a 15% possibility. 99% someone will do something but 15% that it will have any level of sustained coordination. We should protect our national assets.). 

Let us wait and see what happens.....

The Continuation of Hate: When Blind Followership Continues

Blind followership and hate doesn't truly end just because we apply the law. In some cases it turns into micro forms and relies heavily on group perceptions of power (internal dialogue and group numbers). The individuals within those groups appear to feel good about targeting people (Perhaps a feeling of power over others). Somewhere along the line you would think that they would realize that they know nothing of the targets, have been fed false information about how "bad" the targets are, and are being used to fulfill someone else distorted version of the world. Maybe the power they perceive is limited.

In case you didn't know. My family and I were targeted by a group of people who were acting on the behest of a few members within their social networks. I'm unconcerned about how this turns out anymore (I encouraged the perpetrators to get help before they get someone hurt and after serious displays of aggression). As long as that hurt is focused on the targets there seems to be little concern over anything (In many ways I even tried to shield them from themselves. I don't believe they know how illegal these behaviors are in written form. That doesn't mean we apply it that way but in written form they are highly illegal and have big consequences. I kept my fingers crossed they would reform themselves.).

How this turns out is not up to me. The system can do the right or the wrong thing. It can choose the path to a stronger society or it can choose a path to third world status. They are all choices and based on the way we think. Our outcomes are highly related to our values and moral conscious. Our ability to build a great nation relates to certain democratic principles and the development of national human capital removed from race or religion. Thus, hate groups are not needed in nations trying to be their best and should be actively discouraged.

Targeting behaviors included rumor spreading. ostracization, local college telling me I'm more than qualified for an adjunct position (ironically labor law) and then retracting it once they found out I was the "dirty Muslim" the HR manager's friends hate (I believe the HR manager is closely associated with this group but it certainly could be someone else within the organization with hiring power.), my child has been damaged, and it looks like money has disappeared. Worse, the initiators put in a false police complaint to cover their behavior and their two close officer friends (part of the inner core of this group) targeted me and my family (parking outside my home, following me, pulling over my kid, trying to solicit other officers, etc...) 

I can't tell you 100% why all this is happening/happened. Really, I have lots of suspicions but don't actually know. For example, at the same moment the group was trying to set me up through a false police complaint I asked them, "Why are you doing this to my family?" and the person who was acting as the friend network spokesperson called their group leader and came back to the table and said, "Because your Muslim." Soon after heightened aggression occurred from some members of the community and law enforcement (There has been some serious community complaints against at least one of initiating officers that includes misusing power, lying on stand, potentially pushing a raped girl to commit suicide and other complaints. I cannot say if they are true but they are in the rumor mill. What I can say is that based on that officer's behaviors and mannerisms, and comments by other officers, it is worth investigating.).

Most people would have ran but I did not. I challenged the third world hate. Freedom isn't always free and sometimes we have responsibilities to society. I thought, "If they do this here that means they have done it in other places and will be emboldened to do it again.". It appears they have significant ability to bully and pressure people within the community based in negative and distorted behaviors (i.e. definitely not healthy for the community or its people.)  That also includes local officials not insulated from this group and their social influence (boundaries between law enforcement and bully networks should be built in.).

Things have sort of turned out ok after the initial waves of aggression. I now have a positive relationship with most of the officers. The false information has been for the most part debunked and life has returned mostly to normal. The school hasn't been held to account (as far as I know) even though it acted in a manner that would be considered highly unethical and against everything people value in higher education as learning institutes. I have no idea if the officers that initiated the hate (and of which one has other community complaints) have been held to account (I really wish they would have used better judgement. Its sad.). 

What I can say is that it wasn't as though nothing happened because everyone at some point became silent. From what I know of the maturity of the individuals involved they wouldn't have done this on their own volition. Something happened. The micro aggressions are still there by some of the group members. Rudeness, snubbing, trying to get people upset, etc... but they seemed to have lost their willingness to step across the boundaries and now keep things in a passive aggressive fashion (It will be unlikely to stay there forever. As with all passive aggressive behaviors its hard to detect and pin point. I have some experience in communication abilities/analysis so I can pick it up but the motives are in the grey areas.). 

From an observational point I can say that most people rejected this groups logic and aggression. Many became even much nicer. That is a sign of the beauty of this town. However, those that haven't changed seem to have a deeper anger inside themselves. Unhappy with their lives, willing to snub or put down others, create all types of false judgements, and ensure others know they are disdainful even though they would have no idea why they are upset (Immaturity in communication. We have seen this in dysfunctional relationships were we must "guess" what the person's feeling but they aren't mature enough to say it. They act rude and you scratch your head. They definitely dont want to be called out on it. If you do they will run screaming how bad you are. We have all seen this at one point in our lives.). The one thing the person who started this problem did was give them a place to project their internal life frustrations (In some ways I wonder if that is also what happened in the sacking of our Capital. How would any rational person go to DC to damage their own country without already having some issues?) 

I think we are going to need to change as a country. If this behavior is happening in other places there will likely be a major societal schism at some point in our future. We don't want or need two different countries. We don't need two major parties constantly at each others throats and hyping up the rhetoric. Likewise, we don't need people raging on others because they want something, have mental health issues, or they are supported through "good old boy" hate networks. I think we can be better than that! Time always answers our questions. Let us wait and see what the next page brings......

What am I going to do? Be polite, volunteer, work on developing economic opportunities for the community, and generally live my life. In the end, I'm not sure I really have much to do with the rest of it. 

Global Population Rises to 8 Billion Says UN

Nearly 8 billion people will be on our planet soon. That often comes with new challenges and difficulties. We are struggling to keep up with pollution and will need to adapt to clean energy (another advantage of the Digital Era). However, most of the countries that seem to have the largest growth also are some of the poorer countries.

Take notice of the nations.....

"Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines and the United Republic of Tanzania"

Thus, pollution is likely to be more profound in such areas (some types of pollutions such as water, waste, plastic, paper, air, etc..). It will likely have an impact on people's quality of life. Hazardous living conditions, fewer resources, more disease (i.e. pandemics) and greater stress on the local-global environment. Education may not be available to everyone (That is why I advocate for online education as another avenue that will likely become fairly standard someday.)

The solutions are not easy. Of course having children or not having children is a deeply personal choice. The economics of childhood are expensive in Western countries. As one becomes more educated they generally have less children. More wealth also generally means less children. Fertility rates are dropping in some countries but rising in others.

See UN World Population and the UN Sustainable Development Goals

Steve Bannon and January 6th Investigation (Don't judge and just watch)

Steve Bannon is testifying before the January 6th committee. Before you get all excited about what my political views are I want to reiterate that I'm relatively neutral (I'm a light right Republican who believes parties are pathways but not central to the health of the nation; something I think our politicians should take some time and think about. I also have lots of liberal friends and have no moral qualms about it because we are one nation and can have differences of opinions without damaging each other. Civil society is a debate and not a "Game of Thrones"🤷. I know, I know I have a Muslim sounding name and its impossible I have any sense of real patriotism. {Throwing some light on why we need to be inclusive in society and not be blinded by simple symbols and heuristic bias. Freedom of speech and freedom religion are still central to our Constitution the last time I read it.} ).

While I may be somewhat neutral in how this turns out I'm not neutral on sacking the capital (which I find sad and a major crime by anyone who coordinated violence and anyone who engaged in it. It could be Democrat or Republican in my mind) and I'm not neutral on the health of my nation (As an extension of democratic society for average people and not a game for the "connected" to play with institutional health.). Being in the middle means that I seek to create as much objectivity in understanding as possible (I try but I also have my own bias. Because I accept those bias and recognize them I likely am more objective than most. Its a little like limitations and delimitations in a study.). 

I long ago gave up having a stake in being right or wrong but I do like to see how things such as this turn out. Similar to a puzzle its interesting to see how information at the beginning of the event sort of fits with the possibilities that indicates a particular outcome (Forecasting and Environmental Scanning). So far its has been on track to be bigger than a January 6th tail gait party of a few friends throwing back some cold ones (Sorry a sad attempt of lightening up a very difficult situation). 😏

Steve Bannon's testimony, the Trump campaign strategist, opens up a whole new arena because it is so close to the inner circle (I'm not sure how much closer it gets). See Bannon initiates talks with January 6 panel on testifying over Capitol attack. I'm sure there will be lots of people interested in what he has to say (It may help clear Trump or it can hurt him from a political-legal standpoint.). His testimony may be very robotic or be revealing about mannerisms and characters of the time (I'm not really making a judgement but looking for the observation of psychological mindset and conversational direction. i.e. words do have meaning.).

It is important to note that people are innocent until proven guilty in this country (i.e. that should apply to presidents and paupers equally. The law should apply the same as well.). That means while I may have my suspicions a few hours after it hit the news (based on the barely perceptible odd non organic way it happened) that doesn't mean that each player has been identified or that what they knew when it happened is completely spelled out (beyond a reasonable doubt.). 

Of course its always possible that while something coordinated may have happened (I suspect with foreign intelligence help...but there is no smoking gun of evidence as of yet. Lots of smoke in the area but someone needs to find it.) that doesn't mean each of the players was aware of the whole event and/or their part in it (See the how that could be an indication of intentional piecemealing a blind participants in a plan with plausible deniability. Maybe not....but let us see what happens in the end. I can't say one way or another. Its just an option with a percentage based on what information is currently available.). It seems sort of mixed up and intentionally convoluted. That is where investigations sort of turn over the stones to create a plausible and justifiable story (Thinking about my labor relations days.).

Justice is an interesting concept. I believe it should be based in objective fact, good moral judgement and be universal in nature. As we investigate we find additional information that leads to guilt or innocence. One should try and understand by facts and can accept suspicion as an avenue of investigation but should not be overly invested in the outcome. This means let things define themselves because it helps shed light on a bigger situation. Maintain your objectivity and be diligent in the pursuit of truth (Something both parties should think about. Lots of thinking suggestions in the article. 🤓)

Standing by Principles: Its an important little thing.

Principles are important and move down to the very exchanges that keep society together. It's not easy to stand by principles in environments that rewards self interest.  There may be some long term benefits; even if they are subjective by nature.

We cant really expect most people to stand by principles. While most have a value system it is often bent toward self gain. We can expect them to stand by that!

We also cant expect the wider system to uphold principles when they are often based on ones political, moral, and social vantage point.

Talk is cheap but helps people feel good. Talk and living by talk is called character. Something we need more of.

What we can do is stand by our own principles. Sometimes a better value system catches on and other times it doesn't.

Sometimes things will work out and sometimes they dont. In the end I'm not sure it makes a difference except that you were a contributor and not a taker from society. 

Contribution is a small accomplishment. The same can be said for whistleblowers and those who make win win situations in society. Life is what we make of it. Be a contributor because we all own the outcomes.....or you can be a taker. Life is defined by such choices.

China, Russia, and the U.S.: Why the US Must Develop

There is little doubt that the war in Ukraine is about economics and philosophy. Russia wants to rebuild its once fallen Soviet empire (maybe not exactly the same but a modern version) and it is in a pitched ideological battle with the West (Ukraine and its ports and manufacturing is part of that). China is a passive partner to Russia and has shown that Communism can survive (Russia, one of the older Communist states believes it can reemerge as a stronger state.)

The problems that are occurring here are unlikely to be easily resolved unless Russia collapses and/or a major defeat in Ukraine occurs (That also includes Putin loosing power either through sickness or removal). That potentially can squash emergence for some time. 

China is likely the future buyer and partner of Russia and wants to counter the U.S. Likely one reason why Putin keeps talking about an end to the unipolar world. There is more going on then just Russia acting alone and has support from China and a few countries. 

This should be a learning situation for the U.S. We were on top for the last few decades and that gave us a false sense of security. We must now move back into a competitive mode. Understand our risks of not being effective in looking over the horizon.

We can't afford to waste our time in knock down drag down political arguments that are unending and consistently conflictual without resolution (In many ways its damaging us and those who oppose the U.S. are watching us eat each other. It also sends a signal of concern to our allies.). Arguments are only good when there is going to be a resolution (i.e. when we learn from them.)

Competition includes innovation, human capital, investments in infrastructure, settling political dysfunction, moving into the Digital Age (Advanced manufacturing and digital economy) and pushing our best and brightest to top positions (ending the damaging effects of nepotism). 

I'm a supporter of free nations that are managed and led by their people. If there is one thing that life has taught me is that power is often misused. This is why societies that are democratic oriented have checks and balances that keep people free. We probably shouldn't expect China to be particularly helpful in settling the Russian-Ukraine war but maintaining pressure and getting into a competitive mode is helpful. 

Blinken asks China to stand up against Russia’s war in Ukraine