Could Russia Use Nukes? A Possible Scenario

Strategy is one of those things and reach across the ocean and into the minds of adversaries and friends a like. Game Theory is one way in which researchers can understand the options and choices of multiple actors on the field. In this case we are talking about Russia and Ukraine but also includes the many other actors like the U.S.. Read the following frightful Nuke-Intelligence and the Game Theory article. 

1. Putin could use nuclear weapon if he felt war being lost – US intelligence chief

2. Game theory modeling for the Cold War on both sides of the Iron Curtain

I have a little experience modeling game theories for fun and have been sometimes successful at predicting (...not always but in the ball park. This is not a prediction just a discussion on different scenarios.) Level K is where I sort of do well. However, what I'm going to say here is that you get the grasp that there are two different models at play (There are mental trains of scientific thought that should be followed to see where the gaps in perspectives are. Those sometimes reveal opportunities to flip scripts.). Putin a Cold War Era baby so the people he most likely trusts are the ones that follow Soviet models (I don't think he likes the West. Feels capitalism and democracy are on the way out and wants to exploit his nestled position between China and U.S. Some of our radial politicians might also be inadvertently giving off those signals with their unwillingness for reasonableness and working within our current systems to resolve issues and find solutions. Our constant internal arguing is becoming a long term risk for us as well. Our institutions must be strong, independent and supported by the common will of the people. You can say it 100s of ways and yet they just think your not radical enough. Vote for problem solvers, critical thinkers, and centralists that are willing to work with others. I know...completely stupid idea! Its not an R or L issue...its both. ). 

Where I think we might conduct some further analysis is scenarios where he is loosing battles but must win them to move forward. Let us say for example, Ukrainians receive from another country better artillery that forces Russia to commit additional troops to the battlefield in a way that furthers losses (An embarrassing situation with strategic results.). He may consider the use of limited tactical nukes to not only strike fear but also to remove the major obstacles to troop movement. (Kind of like what the article says. These would likely be small at first as a sign/signal for others to stay clear and as a method of taking out Ukrainian military positions). 

There are of course other scenarios such as loss to his own power, escalated involvement by international forces, risk to his life, etc... For Putin this is a one time opportunity to redevelop the glory of the Soviet Empire. He sees himself as a type of Russian savior of values and strength (A kind of last hope for his people.). Power over is the way he was born, bred, and trained. Thus being prepared for dangerous contingencies like this is important. Having the protective gear in stock and ready just in case they are needed can be helpful for last minute changes in scenario (Chemical weapons might be another pre nuke escalation scenario.). We aren't there yet, and hopefully never will be, but it could be helpful just in case things go sour (Just as mental play I wonder if its possible to hack these systems and send them back to their launch site and/or other location? or perhaps impulse out all the chips. Maybe some nerds would know. 🤓 ). 

It should be noted that using the Nukes might put Putin at serious risk from his own Generals and Oligarchs (inner circle) who begin to view him as loosing his rationality and being an existential danger to his own people (i.e. long term health of Russia.). As the situation escalates and tensions rise there is the internal risks to his power that also rise. That will mean doubling down on control and that may not sit with everyone inside Russia who have become familiar with western ideals (Why supporting our own American culture and universal values is important for our own future in international influence. Let us not let far right and left politics destroy our long term legacies.)  Complex theoretical games like this require lots of data, information, and analysis....but also some gut instinct on human behavior. 

Do you have an opinion? (I'm not sure it is an opinion I have here more than it is an understanding of possibilities. Hopefully I'm 100% wrong. I want to be in this case. Even a small possibility is worth discussing. ). 

Gun Violence Increases 20-21' (Pandemic Issue and Violence)

 -Between March 2020 and February 2021 the U.S. experienced 62,500 firearm-related incidents in the US.

-Increase 15% over previous trends.

The reports are concerning. We should differentiate between hunting rifles and those that are defensive vs. aggressive. Those that are designed as outward projecting should be using gun locks. We may also want to consider non-violent guns that are defensive and have no aggressive use. i.e. non-lethal self-defense guns. Gun ownership is great as long as the gun is related to self defense and/or hunting and not used for any other purposes. What are the solutions? Where there is the will there is the way!!!! Solving this problem takes the burden off police and the populace.

Rise in gun violence during pandemic adds strain to overburdened hospitals

Keep in mind that increases in violence in different locations means there could be underlining issues in play on a macro level  Add to that radicalism on left and right and the willingness to intimidate to get one's way and you should have a little concern. Maybe, may not.

Protesting Outside Supreme Court Justice Homes? The Right or Wrong Way to Voice Opinion?

There are things I may agree or disagree with when it comes to controversial issues such as abortion (It really could be any issue people feel excited about i.e. elections, taxes, police, legislation, etc...). Yet whether left or right in one's leaning we want the judicial branch to be as reasonably independent as we can make it. It is part of the three legged stool that keeps our society together. We will be moving into new era as information, ideas, economic shifts and cultural adjustments spread in society (globally). Some will be good and some won't be so great. I believe it is best to maintain the lines of independence and keep official's families as far away from these issues as possible (I know how this can work...my family and I were targeted for having a different religion and race than some others.). 

Once people begin to protest outside homes it creates a type of boundary crossing between home and work. In some ways it can also put people at risk because people who staunchly believe in their opinions (i.e. Capitol Riots and/or Abortion)  are willing to cross boundaries when emotions become heightened or the crowd angry (Not necessarily here but I think it would be best if people protest at the court or in some other venue if people believe it is helpful.). Not necessarily today, as protests are thus far peaceful, I applaud that peacefulness, but that the precedence starts to form where staunchness of political beliefs erode our civilities. This is why I advocate for our different political parties to start thinking about the long term health of the nation. I encourage people to start voting for centralist candidates that help draw people together. 

 What do you think?

River Boat in Louisville KY (Photo)

 

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Donate to Orphans

I sort of do some of this as a hobby and when it does make a little money I try and donate some of that away. If your interested in purchase you can see my slowly developing online gallery (Don't laugh at my art!!!!!😆) 

Investigating and Hold to Account Extremism and Corruption (Resolutions to Hate 05/09/2022)

 Extremism and hate are dangerous in our society and seem to be a supported activity within some social networks within our communities. While extremists, and their supporters, don't often feel that they are doing anything wrong, they rip at the foundations of what keeps our country intact and moving forward. Extremism is often mixed with other issues such as culture of bullying, official corruption, systemic bigotry in hiring practices and greed/fraud. It is a comingled factor that draws justification from other distorted viewpoints (...in and out of social network.)

My family and I have been the target of extremism ranging from stalking, threats, rejection from opportunities and ostracization. Those that normally would have not engaged in these immoral and illegal behaviors were either silent or forced through power dynamics in their social networks to quickly align themselves to key perpetrators (Not all but the pressures for conformity in this mediocre and now old sports group is high.)

Having a large group of hate supporters chase you is one thing but when those beliefs/values reach into some local law enforcement it is a sign that corruption is breaking down the backstop of judicial protections. That is the real danger of extremism is that it becomes supported by officials and begins to erode the foundations of our democracy. It turns the legitimate into the illegitimate (I say that as a Conservative. My conservative values believe that all men/women are created equal and it is darkness in societies that treat people differently.). 

Let me go a little further in my discussion. I also volunteer within the organization and it appears there was a legitimate attempt to ostracize, remove, defame and hinder that volunteering by a few law enforcement officials. Before you get excited, I'm very much a supporter of law enforcement when they are doing the right thing. I got their back and have had their back in other places! When a few members engaged in illegal and corrupted behavior I will push for accountability because I have greater responsibilities to society (I become more concerned about supporting the institutional value.). 

I think the integrity of our institutions is important. While most of the officers and departments realized they were duped/misled/lied to that department which was closely embedded and associated with extremism supporters did not (If I were an officer I might be more upset at the people who lied to me then the one's who are helping me see a better way forward.). Without accountability and a full investigation the few corrupted officers will continue to pose a risk to the community, its future viability, and visitors to the area (There have been multiple prior complaints by different people in the community that appear to be uninvestigated. Its an isolated community so there is little oversite from state and federal entities. Some improper behaviors have grown in that void.)

As a society we have an obligation to investigate legitimate concerns of targeting, extremism and what appear to be threats of intimidation/violence against the "other" (...in this case Muslims which they have no problem calling crazy and terrorists. Of course they neglect the rights of children and the patriotic leanings/serving of one's country. In other words, they are acting on self-induced behaviors not actually associated with the target. The catalyst seems to be simply difference/"other" and maintaining of social position.).

There are a few things that I had hoped to accomplish....

1.) Provide an opportunity for the initiators of the rumors and catalysts for extremist to self reform and get mental health help. (Because of lack of education and distorted sports culture the perpetrators may be prone to accepting these distorted beliefs. It isn't an excuse for them but it does parallels what we see in other similar groups. It was a chance for learning so they can live healthier and happier lives.) 

2.) Create a framework for hometown extremism and how to handle it. I have been looking/studying this stuff for a long time. As a nation we need better ways of dealing with hometown hate (It is important to remember that until our capital was attacked we had a hard time seeing the dangers of extremism and ant-Americanism among members of our community that on the surface looked like us. Its a mental framework that allows us to "see" and then act early to intervene.)

3.) Allow good officers and departments with integrity to learn from their mistakes to make them stronger and more effective. (I support officers 100% and I support legitimate complaints and opportunities for change 100%). Self reform is often the best way to deal with these issues as long as everyone is focused on their same goal (If your one of the good officers please feel free to say "hi" as you might find I'm pretty cool. I like officers and have done my best against crimes in other places. Take a chance!)

4.) Continue to engage with the community in a positive way to show they can accept differences, provide economic opportunities for locals if possible (Why I started looking at clusters more than a decade ago to provide locals in my community and country economic opportunities. Dang! Dirty Evil Muslims! 🤷), help my community through firefighting and other positive, engaging acts (There was an attempt by some officers to stop that.....and that hasn't been fully resolved yet.), and develop a framework for tackling hate/extremism in other hometowns throughout the country (MI. Hate Laws). 

5.) Ensure that local institutions (i.e. higher education and others) don't allow their HR departments to determine that "qualified" candidates are people that fit within their social groups and ethno-centric viewpoints. They have an obligation to fulfill their missions and values without key individuals distorting their recruitment practices (Without change I feel a full EEOC investigation into hiring practices might be helpful in adjusting some of their policies.)

6.) There may be a few more points but I got other stuff to do today. .

What happened here can't be sugar coated and it can't be swept under the carpet. It has been a few years since it started and the behaviors never truly died down. They just took different subvert forms. While the social group is no longer willing to engage in coordinated intimidation tactics a few of the officers have picked up the cause and continue to engaged in corrupted practices in hopes of "getting the Muslims" and looking good to people within their social networks (I suspect there are some legal reasons as well.). While they have not been successful thus far that doesn't mean I won't be pulled over on a lonely dark road someday (They should be mindful that there will be people out there that will ask questions. My goal is to learn, share, create positive engagement and not be "cleansed" out. Remember there is a lot more to this including pulling over my children in an unmarked car. My kids were targeted for bullying with false information. No one in this country has the right to say these behaviors are "ok". We need, want, deserve, and will support a free nation. An investigation will help clear the mud.)

Why do I persist? Because I think that we are one nation, one people, and the future lies in tackling these problems to create national unity (Path-Goal). My kids and your kids (any race and religion) should be able to walk freely in any town in this nation without the fear of aggression or corruption. Freedom is an American thing!

(A helpful hint: The next time you hear a "juicy" rumor about "those" people {any race or religion} make sure you consider the source and think before you act.)

Live Hate-Extremism Review and Analysis: Making or Breaking the System?

CIA director speaks out about Putin's mindset (Russia's Plan B and Desperation)

Russia is having a hard time and they are being stalled in their Plan B pursuits. CIA Director Bill Burns indicates that Russia will become more desperate and more bloody. He also indicates that they are trying to rebuild their great empire. Its deeply embedded into his perception of self and sense of personal values (You can see that in his history of conflict and support within his prior KGB duties.)

Let me say I agree with Bill Burns on this one! Putin in a Cold War guy born and bred and wants to see his country return to its former glory. Ukraine must be a win for him and his country if he has any hope of claiming a level of victory (..at least part of the country that is Russian speaking. 🤷). 

Desperation has set in and soldiers have taking a small back step (based on previous losses) and the use of artillary to obliterate the opposition has increased. With western superior weaponry he may find himself somewhat out ranged (Threatening tactical nukes as an indication of psychological perspective and as a sign of that desperation.). 

That doesn't mean he can't win (time will tell) it just means that he will get more brutal in his approach and he will seek a decisive victory where human life will not be of any real consideration. Its simply a casualty.  

The country will increasingly be run with an iron fist to redraw the Iron Curtain. Ukraine and any nation on the planet should have the right to choose where it seeks to belong without militarized pressure. Freedom also comes with the right to choose. 

It is important for our American politicians to shore up any weaknesses we may have in the U.S. and keep their eyes toward the future where we have a window of opportunity to rejuvenate our nation, its mission, and its opportunities (In case your confused, that means our politicians should put down their petty arguments and focus on something greater than themselves for the benefit of everyone. There is more to patriotism than constant arguments and superficial differences {race, religion, etc..}. Be fearless in supporting core/universal American beliefs that made this nation great. Some are doing the right thing and some are not! 😮💨)

A few interesting pieces to read. Russia Plan B, Putin's Traitors, Russia Isolation, Russian Scales Back (Delay tactic), and Russian Economy.

Cinco De Mayo 4th Street Louisville KY

 Very good times at Cinco de Mayo on 4th street in Louisville KY.