Putin Isolating? Intelligence Indicate Misled and Isolating: Lessons for US Leaders

 A lot of things are going on win the Ukrainian-Russian war. Watching what is happening on a strategic and macro level helps us better understand what is happening on a micro level to ensure we continue to learn from such situations/conflicts (I seek to maintain my objectivity but recognize my pro US bias.) We also may find that Putin is beginning to self isolated and may not be so trusting of his inner circle. See Biden says Putin appears to be "self-isolated". Furthermore, declassified documents indicate that Putin may be misled. The Kremlin is denying that either of those are happening and as a general public we will just have to wait to know for sure. See Vladimir Putin feels his military leaders misled him about Ukraine, declassified intelligence shows. 

Bark! Bark!
Sometimes better to be a little
dog, humble ourselves and listen for
better decision making.

The problem is that many cloak and dagger types are limited in the amount of tools that they have at their disposable and are able to understand or use. One of them is the soft skills and ability to open their communication lines to take in new information (One indication of organizational learning failures is when new ideas do not percolate and decision making moves inward to an even tighter circle. See Organizational Learning) . I'm not in a position to say specifically as I'm just modeling but what I might say is that when we move into situations overconfident, the "big dog" knowing everything, using control/manipulation tools and smack down freedom of speech we run the risk of lowering psychological safety of key advisors/managers/leaders (The type of organization isn't important. See Putin Pressure and Soviet Style. Assuming he is isolating we can expect him to try and reverse that image by projecting the same root strengths that led to power. Same tools in new situation leading to specific predefined outcome ranges.). When that happens people tell leaders what they want to hear and the information is miscued. You will want to read this pretty solid article on psychological safety, independence of thought, etc.... Lacking Team Trust? You’re Probably Not Listening. 

This is why I always advocate for things like truth and freedom of speech. Those who overuse power end up destroying everything around them. They don't really care as long as they feel like they are in charge. Goes wrong....blame someone else! Whether your running an organization or in a senior leadership position of any type of entity you should always be open to learning and listening. This is one reason why the U.S. often thrives where others fail (Thus far in history but that can change and we have wobbled some...a little more than a wobble in Capitol Riots...we ran along the irreversible line but luckily we pulled back. We are still dealing with some of these issues on the community level.). While many many different narrow minded egotists have made their way into key positions (not specific to party or person) the vast majority still feel that open dialogue and truth is our best route forward. That truth and freedom of speech will become even more important as we navigate the next stage of our national development in both economical and social arenas.

Pictures of Geese by Lake

 

Geese
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Sometimes it's nice to add little happy things into the blog. It's the lighter side of life!

Navigating Opportunities in Justice: Moving the Needle to True North

We have been debating over how we are going to mend the different perceptions of policing and justice into a single framework that is acceptable to the many different stakeholders that make up our nation. Some will say that everything is great so bedamned with the critics and some will vehemently disagree that its been broken without hope of repair. I like to take as rational and practical approach as possible as I can to help ensure that systems capitalize on their strengths and learn to improve through awareness of weaknesses. All organizations must continuously change or they run the risk of dissolution (Police, nations, companies, non profits, etc... are not "magically" immune.)

Thoughtful Change in Policing:

When I say thoughtful change that it doesn't mean "Oh great! We don't have to do anything!" and then move on without effort to improve the system. I think people have become aware of delay and ignore tactics and expect change with teeth marks. The options of sidestepping legitimate concerns are becoming increasingly limited as people become aware of the refusal to improve. A huge percentage of society feel they don't count, their rights are ignored, and the people who engaged in such behaviors are given free passes consistently (Providing win-win situations for everyone is not enough because you have to get them to accept it. Mental health for those who caused the problem, training for those who made mistakes, reform for better checks/balances, etc...).

There is a balance of the new and the old. Of course we should also be mindful of the traditions, value, and needs of policing (The "codes" are sometimes valuable and sometimes destructive.). They still must catch bad guys/gals and need the wiggle room to do that. Yet it should be done in a way with the deepest respect for human life and the essential principles of our society. There is no good reason why we can't respect certain occupational traditions while ensuring that we are not anchoring everything different as the enemy, criminal, less worthy and half Americans (It applies to people outside departments and those who are look, act, or are different.) 

Such a system would be a learning organization with adequate feedback loops from multiple sources. Some of the problem we face is that only a limited stakeholder perspective (i.e. political, legal, and self) that doesn't account clearly for the needs of a diverse society. Because feedback is sifted through all these other entities it is often best for police to be reactive versus proactive to environmental change (I'm not saying I agree or disagree but that I understand. Think about it....they don't want to be subject to the "flavor of the month" movements while also not running afoul of greater societal needs. They are stuck sifting through the different opinions; mine included.)

How To Fix When Justice Defaults (A Case Review)?

1.) Owning Responsibility: The responsible party should retract any statements made specifically to harm the target that are not based in fact. No one has the right (official or unofficial) in a smear campaign to intimidate the targets, cut them out of economic opportunities, ensure they can't serve their communities without incurring serious risks from misperception, lack of support and/or equipment, and seeking to ensure social networks are pitched as blameless (not to mention the elusive nefarious goal of splitting society into "Us" vs. "Them") 

2.) Train Mistakes and Remove Criminality: Only in the legal jargon of the time is there a concept of "immunity" for criminality. Beyond perversions of law are the truths of society. Good cops that make mistakes should be trained but bad cops that commit crimes should be removed (to maintain the integrity of the shield). We can play with the meaning and words as much as we want but there are essential core truths that apply to all societies and of course the consequences of allowing any system to run counter to the needs of its people. The law may say one thing but society and history will say another. We only need to have an understanding of history and how "protect our own" laws can lead to societal movements (I'm 100% for police and I'm 100% forgiving of mistakes and I'm 100% for removing those engaged in criminal behaviors.)

3.) Reform The Justice System: There is no such thing as a half citizen in the Constitution. As long as we continue to consider a simple majority of society has half citizens we will have distrust issues. What is a half citizen? It is a person that on an official level we give them full rights but on an unofficial "grey area" there will be those who circumvent those rights to ensure they are weighted in performance and outcomes. People who promote half citizen status (i.e. racism and bigotry) have accepted false beliefs about the nature of their country and its people and work often (using their positions) on a subconscious level to undermine certain principles and people when it don't fit their distorted view (Sometimes I wonder about our soldiers and how they may have served their country and have to come back and deal with racism, bigotry, hate and half citizen status by those who have done little to nothing for anyone. It happens and our leadership should stand up for certain essential American principles. We just need to get the obstacles that blind their sight out of the way.)

The Hope: 

People stand up for what is right and its a continuous process on pushing for improvements where they are needed. The problem is that we are beyond slow. We recently just passed a law that says its illegal to lynch people (Really? We didn't know better? We should have known 100+ years ago...maybe 1000 years ago.). A young Black boy looks the wrong way at a racist and gets chased down and murdered by a group of "concerned citizens". No one is prosecuted. There have been many more incidents of legal sanction of highly criminal violations of human rights. I think people are beginning to understand that we can't go on this way and meaningful change will soon be here. There must be a commitment to freedom and that people have now seen the disease in the rise of extremism (We have given a blind eye to homegrown extremism because we couldn't see people who looked like us at fault for anything. That becomes a problem when engage in group think, promote only certain types of people, and can't see all the options. We inadvertently nurtured it in the disparities of perception and law.). 

There are many who now understand the destructive path of not changing and are taking action. The problem is that there are lots of voices and some of those voices are just as ignorant as those engaged in hate. I support the rule of law and the rights of people (They aren't mutually exclusive. Some of our judges seem to understand that and are making choices to do the right thing. Its refreshing and a sign of hope.)We need our police and we need them to do their jobs (I'm against defunding and may even consider more funding for training, non-lethal weapons, recruitment, citizen reviews and social work.). We want police to be effective and ensure the laws don't stop what they have to do but at the same time the laws protect the rights of citizens to fair treatment. Police are here to serve our communities (not the other way around) and in turn must continuously be connected and responsible to the community within the wider framework of our national values. So I give two thumbs up for policing and at least one thumb down at our pace of reform.

Side note:

No one has to listen to me....I have a Muslim sounding which often means that what I have to say is typically taken with a grain of salt (not barring that in hindsight I have a higher accuracy rating than many others) and even if I'm (i.e. people like me) are doing what I/we believe to be the "right thing" there is typically someone there to judge, block, discredit you (of course not judging themselves through a proper lens!). It has been this way for a long long time. Why I'm vehemently opposed to half citizen status and its destructive nature on our society.

Leadership quality is important in this country and that is based on how leaders think. There are those who have found freedom and there are those who have no idea they are slaves. Its about their personal awareness and ability to navigate their environment and fulfill our duties as independent thinkers (See Socrates Allegory of Cave.) The more you grow, the more awareness, the more rich disparities/beauty become, and the more responsibility you have to push society to be better (Respecting what we are doing well and being honest about what we aren't doing well. That is true regardless of how angry people get when they hear it and how far they are willing to go to double down to silence voices of reason.)

I would probably be remiss If I didn't provide a word of caution that I believe keeping our system focused on truth, justice, and wisdom is the best course of action for everyone; strategically and and in alignment with moral conscious (Ensuring the needle points true north.). I know! I know! He is one of "those" people and doesn't have the right to speak for Americans! ...and those are the unfortunate lessons of life (The "lessons" that are not in the textbooks but yet we intuitively know is behind the curtain of conscious.). BTW...I never actually expected the hypothetical "Justice" to occur...hopeful....but not expecting...there are always a million reasons to not change but only one good reason to embrace positive change. Its a values debate!

Think 10-15 years into the future and ask yourself, "Should we really still be debating this?" There are those on the right side of history and those on the wrong side of history. Unfortunately, we don't always really know until we get there...and then its too late! If our compasses are calibrated correctly we will be ok but if our compass is incorrect we will be on the wrong path/trajectory.  

The Six Box Organizational Model: Knowing When Organizations Should Change

Businesses thrive when they continuously seek new levels of organizational performance. Learning organizations adapt and those that are dying fail to adapt. Sometimes we need a model to help us formalize concepts. Marvin Weisbord (1976 p431) combines "bits of data, theories, research, and hunches into a working tool that anyone can use.". Below you will find the 6 boxes for formulating a conception of a business and where it can improve. 

1. Purpose: What business are you in?

2. Structure: How to divide up roles and responsibilities.

3. Rewards: Do activities have incentives.

4. Helpful mechanisms: Are there adequate coordinating technologies

5. Relationships: How the organization handles conflict.

6. Leadership: Does someone keep the other boxes in balance?

The model does well simplifying/oversimplify) and considering the wider factors in organizational management. It is provides an opportunity to view the organization from different perspectives to highlight potential issues and determine whether a strategy is being effectively executed. Business is a process of consistent improvement and having models such as this can help in formulating a proper review. You can gain some more insight at Guide to Weisbord’s 6 Box Model

"Weisbord, M. R. 1976. Organizational diagnosis: Six places to look for trouble with or without a theory. Group & Organization Studies 1(4):430–47."

Judge and Defense Attorney Receives Death Threats in Gov. Whitmer Case-Yep such things go on and on and on!

There isn't much I can say other than I'm happy we are starting to take extremism seriously. Governor Whitmer is a high profile person and has protections that many of us don't often have. As a well known figure that also makes her a target for some groups. When I read the article FBI raids Michigan home after reported threats to judge, lawyers in Gov. Whitmer kidnapping case I find myself perplexed at the audacity of people!

Let me say that I'm a light right Republican and I have seen radicalism on both sides of the perspective. From this article you can't really tell if they are for or against a particular outcome. What I would say is that birds of a feather flock together. We will wait to see who is sending these threats and what their motivations might be (likely once investigators have answers)

Its hard for leaders to make the best decisions when they are being targeted by these extremist groups. It makes no difference the ideology or background. They are people who use power, force and fear to try and force their will onto others. They are not the type to listen to reason and instead love the feeling of power that comes from the fear of harming others. 

These bold moves by radicalized groups (Capitol, MI Gov., or Hometown) is an indication for an increase in violence to solve problems. Different forms of extremism have been common and it wasn't within our mental frameworks to view these groups as dangerous because of our preexisting biases in vantage points (meaning unable to see certain things because of incorrect anchoring.)

It is very difficult to stand up to these types of radical behaviors unless we are able to tackle them in our hometowns. We should recognize that ones position (official or unofficial) in society and their station in life make no difference to who may or may not be involved. 

I have advocated for mental health services for those who do not understand the gravity of their behavior in an attempt to reform (assuming they weren't violent), holding officials accountable whether they are involved or turning a blind eye to such behaviors (sometimes training and sometimes removal), and coming down hard on groups that are actively plotting and planning. 

From a sociological level there are reasons why this is happening and there are many factors that range from life frustration to poor leadership. We have created a context where such behaviors are acceptable depending on who is doing it and who are the targets (Its always the "other"). Its easy to devalue life and the values of others. Its much harder to respect others based on principle. Let's stop rewarding the profane to spite the tame.

Until we change the environment by changing our perspective it will just go on and on and on and on! It will just be in different forms, and places, time and tactics (The race, religion, or party makes no difference. Society is a conversation. It actually is massive interconnected conversation. When positive communication declines and violent rhetoric rises we have begun to split society. Different rules for different people.). You can see the growing rhetoric that seeks to devalue human life and encourage forceful militant style radicalism. Its nice to see that not all of us have given up on a free and enlightened society.

The Single Ingredient for Small Business Success is Confidence

Small Town America Needs Confidence
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Confidence counts for a lot in our lives and is substantial to the success of a small business that must continuously overcome challenges. Overconfidence creates undue risk while confidence assesses new information to make accurate assessments of success (or failure). Without confidence you are unlikely to start a business or succeed through the positive and negative aspects of society to maintain your business. Your personality and your business are often intertwined during the initial stages and your belief in yourself is key to longevity.

One way to improve on confidence is to think about the different possibilities and the truer likelihood of success or failure within the market. If you aren't sure you certainly can take a blind leap of faith but it is often better to try and find opportunities to narrow those gaps of missing information. That isn't always easy when you lack the self-belief to start walking down the path to success. 

I read an article in Forbes by Caroline Castrillon entitled This Is The Secret Ingredient For Small Business Success that discusses the nature of confidence. I stole their APA Dictionary of Psychology of underconfidence as, “a cognitive bias characterized by an underestimation of one’s ability to perform a task successfully or by an underrating of one’s performance relative to that of others.” (Its a very informative article so I suggest you read it.)

What we find is that underconfidence, just like overconfidence can impact our decisions and in turn our outcomes. They may often seem subtle but add up in profound ways over the many series of choices we must make. While underconfidence leads to certain outcomes we can sometimes overcome those difficulties as we weigh and balance options. Consider the following...

1.) Look for information before making major decisions.

2.) Listen to your inner self and match that with logical analysis.

3.) Be open to different possibilities and outcomes. 

4.) Stay in touch with industry changes and pay attention to what others are doing.

5. Bounce ideas off of others (Get a consultant if you don't have someone to bounce)

6. Recognize that business is a process and failures often lead to success. Just keep working on it!

Why We Struggle to Stand for Certain Principles? Institutions Help Countries Thrive During Crisis

In a park representing ancient principles of democracy from
 Greek society and our ability to respect wisdom. Kind of a
bad picture but if you like it
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Its makes no difference if you are talking about companies, people, or government there is a right and a wrong way to do things. Sometimes the structures (meaning the formal design) can get in the way and other times it is the leadership of those institutions. People who know people who know people often get the best positions leading to a level of social adherence by those who share similarities in background and ideology. New thoughts often have a hard time moving forward in group think environments.. 

Let us think about Putin's Russia for example. There is a level of thinking that exists within the highest rankings of society and people know they must say what they are required to say to be consider one of the in-group members (...and all of its benefits.). They may personally disagree but they are not dumb enough to say that. In turn, choices get skewed because institutions are led by people who want to be in the good graces of dominant personalities. End of the day the same choices are made over and over and that can be costly. 

The U.S. is different. We have more diversity and our institutions are fairly strong (There is more work to be done as the Capital Riots have taught us that even institutions risk collapse under the wrong kinds of circumstances). It was our values that saved us and the people like Pence, our politicians on both sides, our institutional leaders that stood for something greater....a belief in America. There were no guarantees (Just like people who struggle with these issues everyday have no guarantees anyone is going to do the right thing. The macro sack is a symptom of local micro issues being played out in different places. Why I advocate for mental health to deal with extremist before such people make it a bigger problem. Its in one ear of our leadership and out the other.....that's a value issue.)

Our nation faces risks in todays world. While our institutions limped through a big crisis and made it work it was very close to being a very different outcome. People within those institutions were afraid to speak up and had to work in the background to do the right things. They rested on their values at great personal risk. They are our silent heroes. If it would have turned out the other way they would have been toast!

There are people everyday fighting to do what is right against insurmountable odds and often corrupted people. Our institutions sort of do the right thing but often get things wrong (Meaning there should always be feedback loops to create a learning organization/nation. If we stick our fingers in our ears we have become guilty of neglect of our duties.). The values of our principles are what makes difference in our success or failure. Sometimes it works out great while at other times we just continue on and on with the wrong choices and that leads to the decline of institutional integrity (If you can't project what that could mean if it goes to far you probably shouldn't take any leadership positions for the benefit of everyone else.). 

This is why I believe our institutions we should balance the independence of  our three major institutions Judicial, Legislative and Executive to maintain the right ballast on our ship (Its a metaphor). We should also strive to put people in positions of authority that have the right values (Not the one's they profess to each other, wink and nod, or politically-socially connected but the ones who actually have the skills.) In other words, we promote our best and brightest regardless of their race, religion, or lack of social "connectedness". 

Diversity and the strengthening of institutional integrity will be our future if we learn from the past mistakes and correct them (You can't run a great country on limited thinking and only partial human capital. It dumb!) On the flip side extremism, violence, and societal chaos will continue to grow if we don't rally around our essential American principles. Principles is the only thing I know that can cut through a sense of entitlement, social networks, political divisions, and chaos. It is also what defines leadership from nepotism. 

What are your values? This is a decision that people must make for themselves.

The proof is always in the pudding. We either can strive or we can resign....but its a collective choice (Seems like were still debating our best strategic position....for some....or for all of us. I personally believe that national strategy should maximize our strengths, hedge our weaknesses, and put ourselves in the best place possible to capitalize on various situations. I'm not sure what everyone else believes.....they may not even know themselves. Answers before the questions. Unfortunately sometimes no one listens and no one cares because you are outside the "inner circle"...and that is the place you have to start. Sounds familiar doesn't it....we have heard this before.....from lots of different people. 🤷 )