Energy Landscape Influence the Michigan Economy

 Energy is important. Our national infrastructure isn't the greatest and the push to move toward greener energies could be an opportunity to update that infrastructure and make it adaptable to multiple types of energy (electric, gas, oil, etc..). Such a system would allow us to start phasing out one kind and put in another kind. A shortage happens in one source (i.e. oil) we can put more in another source. We would also want redundancy of power banks that include local and national so that as one chain is damaged it can be rerouted to other sources allowing for only short disruptions (Ok...sorry I'm just thinking about energy infrastructure of the future.)

Either way you energy is important to business and companies that move into Michigan need viable energy to power their plants. It looks like from the video that companies are really trying to do this and finding ways to get energy there quickly. You will want to read the article 'Why the energy landscape is critical for Michigan’s economic growth' 

Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks at the NABE annual conference

Federal Chair Jerome Powell discusses monetary policy. Businesses often review and watch what the Federal Reserve is doing in order to understand how to set their own strategies and policies. If inflation is high it may not be the best time to borrow money, make large purchases, etc...Some of the problem is driven by supply chain issues that have gotten a little worse since the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.

It is expected that we will start to return back to normal in the near future (next couple of years). I'm curious if we will start to see a decline in rates in the next few months as new supply networks are created? I don't really have a great logic for it but that I suspect conflict will either subside or get substantially worse (It could really go either way.). If there is a dip its not going to be right back to normal because the larger supply chain issues haven't been resolved until companies start operations back in the U.S. (and develop new supply networks. Adaptive Supply Chain, Regional Networks). 

A few key points.....

-Price stability and strong labor market.

-Discussion on reducing balance sheet.

-Raise interest rates to reduce inflation.

-Unemployment 3.8% 

-Job growth across different demographic groups.

-1.7 job openings per person looking for work.

-Mixed impact of oil.

-Feds will adjust to try and return to 2% inflation in a couple of years.

America Wants Three Things: Police are Part of the Solution

"If one does not know to which port one is sailing, no wind is favorable." Seneca, Stoic Roman Philosopher

We have been bombarded with news media and hyper politicians hell bent on driving a wedge between people for self-gain and political power. The voices of reason and logic are often silenced by the chronic finger pointing and shouting that risks splitting our foundations of our society at the seams. The good news is despite political manipulation most Americans want freedom, equality and self-governance as universal American principles (There are a few more but these seem important.) At the same time most Americans believe in their police and see the necessity of policing that moves past all that rhetoric.

Knowing we believe in certain values and knowing that our police are valued gives us some guidance on how we can improve policing while at the same time reinforcing our essential values as the preferred path forward (Think about it...its possible to support police and the concerns of protestors at the same time. If there is a win-win path we should take it....unless politics is more important than the will of the people? If you question the ultimate stakeholders and purpose of politics please refer to the articles on three essential principles below. They should act as a good guide to reorienting our value system.🤷.) 

Americans Support Three Basic Values: 

I want to bring to your attention the article '84 Percent: America's Founding Ideals Worth Fighting For' in Rasmussen Reports (The company is an online data collection and non-partisan political survey service. They got some interesting stuff so you may want to bookmark and go back to from time to time. ) As an essential values these three concepts set the stage for essential American principles that nearly everyone (saving the dangerous rise in extremism) believe in and are willing to fight for (There are probably around 3 more essential principles.)

-(84%) of voters say America's founding ideals are worth fighting for.

-The essential values of freedom, equality, and self-governance

Most Support the Police:

There has been a lot of debate and controversy about police and the nature of policing in this country. Prior to the current upheaval, during and after,  I maintained the value system that police are necessary and live within a larger environment that has influence on beliefs and activities (Morality and Law). Where racism and bigotry exists it is within this wider societal-historical context embedded in the way in which we interact as a diverse people. (To fix one fixes the other. Why I believe we should have a very mature and honest conversation about bigotry/racism and what a society that maximizes its human capital looks like...and what that can do for our competitive future.). 

Police have a difficult and important job to do and there are times when mistakes happen. Mistakes can be trained just like departmental cultures can be improved. However, when mistakes are intentionally, repeated, racists/bigoted and dangerous to the public there must be mechanisms for review and removal (Sometimes prosecution). In the article, Most Don’t Blame Police for Shootings you will find an important statistic to keep in mind:

-67% of American Adults rate the performance of the police in the area where they live as good or excellent.

I would learn from this situation that police can be used to spearhead the protection of these three essential beliefs They can be trained on supporting our ideas as well as stronger tactical methods that helps protect the public from criminals while ensuring justice is universally applied during the arrest and within the court system (They could be central to supporting these values as the ambassadors to people and gate keepers to the criminal justice system. i.e. social work, referrals, truthful testimony/data/feedback, community building, etc... I wonder if that would be a paradigm shift if we put people on the same side around shared values? Its just an unvetted idea and lots of people are likely to see it different. Nothing wrong with that as long as there is civil discussion based in a level of truthfulness and positive perspective.)

(Side note. When you focus on essential truths and good moral conscious shared by most people you don't need to backtrack on your political stance. Prior to current social upheaval I stated my political beliefs and because they have construct validity and ethical considerations associated {i.e. moral conscious}they have not yet needed to adjust to political winds or skewed arguments. They are also likely to be true for a long time until the environment radically shifts and new values/problems come forward. I don't really believe politics is the place for me but I do believe trying to understand one's own beliefs in light of the far Right and Left leaning ideologies is important; whether I'm thrust into politics or not. Seems like such a toxic field....but some places seem to be doing better in bi-partisanship GOP Legislature and Whitmer Executive Branch and the product of that might very well be the improved economic prospects of the state {i.e. See Michigan #1 Economy and Biggest Threats, Deradicalize Politics, Outperform China}. 🤷 You can see my beliefs in 9 Important National Issues If I Someday Run for Politics and Politics and Philosophy. I kind of have an economic theory I been working on so I sort of watch what is going on in the market and politics to see if it stays true. See Transactional Economic Clusters. Its not finished and its ugly but I been looking at practical application. What I learn from that will help me connect and round it out. Life is getting in the way. LOL)

Eastland Complex Wildfire: Fire Whirls on Video

One firefighter has fallen and 45,380 acres destroyed. It is believed this could get worse depending on weather conditions. Firefighting is serious business and people can get hurt. While departments do their very best to protect everything it is inherently a dangerous occupation. If you feel in your heart you want to donate to help firefighters you might want to donate a few dollars to WPI Firefighters Fund, State Firefighter and Fire Marshall Association or 15 Firs responder Organizations

As our temperatures change there will likely be more pressure on firefighters and communities to protect against natural disasters (That depends on if Global Warming is true and it rears its ugly head on society. Probably better to push for environmental development and new innovative technologies to reduce human's destructive impact on our environment.)

You can see within the video a fire whirl. You can learn about the difference between a fire whirl and fire tornado. 

How the Decision Tree Can Help Make Better Business and Government Decisions

The world is complex and as this complexity increases businesses must make choices between multiple options. These options can either improve a company's position or it can limit their future option. In many ways, the business of business is decision making. Decisions over resources, strategies, time, location, products and more all work out to success or failure. When competitors win its because they were able to make better decisions within the market in which they function when compared to other businesses. To avoid this problem executives (decision makers) would want to consider the benefits of a decision making tree to help round out their business "hunches". 

It is important to note that decision making trees can be simple or they can be complex. There is a solid description in the article In What Ways Can Decision Trees Be Used for Business Decisions?.  The article provides a fairly simple explanation of how they might work. Typically they might be more complex for larger businesses where more money is involved and less complex for smaller businesses where choices are localized and risks are limited (Small business has lots of risks but one wouldn't put together a 150 page study for a corner store. The tree would be very simple.)

 We can see when we look at these trees that they are applied in business to help companies make decisions that are the most likely to end in benefit to the organization. They also can help companies determine options and what resources they have available. When done well it can also project potential revenue and/or loss (We must always keep in mind potential because even the best projections can be wrong and derailed by unexpected phenomenon.) 

How is a Decision Tree Used: Decision trees are used in science, business, investing, psychological-sociological fields, government and much more. They can even be used for your personal decision making to help you think beyond current pressures and environmental factors to better see how one choice leads to the opening and closing of multiple doors. You are balancing the use of logic, research, and common sense to come up with well thought out risks of choice.

You can review a study to see how a decision trees function in the field of psychiatry (I probably should have found a business example but this came up first in my search and you can see how this works in detailed research.). Research the Shanghai Archives of Psychiatry entitled 'Decision tree methods: applications for classification and prediction' discusses multiple decision tree models:

Variable Selection: Select most relevant input variables.

Importance of Variables: Select the most important variables.

Handling Missing Values: Dealing with missing information.

Data Collection: Using past data to predict future actions.

Data Manipulation: How to create logically consistent categories.

Pure Michigan Example:

I completed a very generic version in Pure Michigan Funding Decision.  This isn't the best example as I didn't go into great depth, and there is more I could have done, however it does provide a simplified practical view. In order to make basic decisions you will often have to study the situation to grasp the potential outcomes. Even situation there are more outcomes than listed but these were the political-practical outcomes that were most likely in my mind to occur. Thinking "Out of the Box" would likely lead to other conclusions that would not be accustomed within traditional government practices. Thus, decision trees can sometimes lead to whole new ways of looking at things (and even post sequences of outcomes.) Creativity mixed with scientific logic can often be a dynamite combination that challenges root assumptions. Its good for science, companies, and governments.

Concluding Remarks:

The decision tree opens up the possibility of seeing arguments form a logical standpoint where different choices can be quantified (i.e. to invest or not to invest in say a place like Escanaba or Delta County MI). The amount of data one includes is entirely up to them. Typically in business there may be time, cost, ROI, resources (financial, human capital, etc..), etc... involved in the decision making process and would be included in an analysis of the overall benefits taking one course of action over another. 

Abel Business Consulting helps find unique solutions to difficult business problems. An outside perspective can go a long way in defining those problems, exploring their nature, and settling on lasting strategic solutions in ways that were not previously available. Research and solutions can be focused for individual businesses or long-stemming industry problems. Initial consultation is free. http://www.abelbusinessconsulting.com/  Email Abel Business Consulting

Magee, J. (From original publish 1964) Decision Trees for Decision Making Harvard Business Review. Retrieved 03/16/2022 from https://hbr.org/1964/07/decision-trees-for-decision-making

Yan-yan, S & Lu, Y. (2015). Decision tree methods: applications for classification and prediction. Shanghai Archives of Psychiatry, 27 (2). Retrieved 03-18-2022. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4466856/

Is Putin Feeling Pressure? Payments, Economy, and Traitors!

 It is helpful to keep up with the happenings of the global markets and the pressures facing Europe, US, China, Russia, and the rest of the world. At present it appears Russia is limping along but certainly reeling on the economic and internal social side. Of course they have been ostracized by the wider international community  (save a few countries) and likely beginning to feel the risk of internal schisms and economic collapse (Likely scenarios not initially thought of in Plan A and that often comes from not scanning all of the alternatives, failing to surround yourself with people of different points of view to enhance objective thinking, and a particular covert background that focuses on the harder sides of strength versus the softer support side that leads to moral and economic strength.). Of course no one really knows what will happen but it will be interesting to watch (I am biased toward a US win.). It does appear that Russia will need to make some bigger choices about withdrawal, double down on prior strategy, or negotiate a perceived win out of Ukraine (through trying to obtain alternative security agreements between NATO and Russia.)

Economic Problems and Payments

There are indications that the Russian economy is suffering and that there has been a movement to prepare people of the pain they will endure. Serious economic difficulties and/or collapse is going to radicalize some in certain circles and likely create dissention in others. There will be increased pressure to get back to normal economic activities. Resources will scarce and lots of creative financing going on.  The Russian Economy Is Headed for Collapse,  Russia says it made a payment to avoid default, The Russian Economy Is Headed for Collapse

Internal Dissention and Traitors! 

Discussion on traitors and internal pressure which has the potential to further divide internal factions. Russian Activists and Journalists Targeted After Putin’s Call for Purge of ‘Traitors’ and Putin Vows to Rid Russia of ‘Traitors’ While Waging Ukraine War. The biggest risks are if this becomes a movement, wealthy oligarchs encourage it, and the inner circle begins to question the value of Ukraine invasion.

In a bizarre sort of way Putin could actually find himself in a prison somewhere in the future so he will not be willing to give up power easily. Expect a bumpy ride if he feels cornered or pressured. Maybe he will get out unscathed but it is becoming increasingly unlikely the longer this goes on. Self preservation should to start to kick in now. 

Escanaba Hotel and Jail Site Development Meeting: Waterfront, Hotel, Housing and Nautical Considerations Important

Escanaba Michigan Hotel-Marina-Yard Site

The hotel is very important for Escanaba and it has an opportunity to shift the developmental projects of the city. I encourage you to think about long term viability and maximizing of waterfront space for economic, tourism related, and nautical purposes. I'm not going to get into all of the proposals and the benefits/detractors of them but I will say that I like some of what was presented by Northshore Marine Terminal & Logistics who might be willing to work with a hotel to balance the two benefits (tourism and development) . 

No matter who is awarded bids I would like to say I think there is some room for a nice hotel (or hotel and condo facility) and a nice expansion of marina space that includes passenger, recreational, and military vessels (of course with different docking areas but one can certainly benefit form the other.). You will want to read the agenda because it has the proposals inside March 8th 22', Esky Agenda. It will give you an overview of what different investors are proposing.

Thinking over the proposals I like a blend of hotel/condo/studio, retail, marina, and nautical considerations could be included as a potential long term strategy to hedge different markets. We would want to do more than just put a hotel there and should maximize the waterfront for aesthetic tourist related industry while perhaps enhancing the local shipyard in some way (They do require similar type improvements. i.e. break wall, lights, etc...). Not sure how that would happen but proposals can be adjusted to allow an approach that enhances cluster benefits (i.e. hotel designed in a way that includes higher end condo/hotel living with a nice marina that raises its appeal and visitation. Retail space below and improvements to the harbor area. Opportunities to allow larger private yachts and tourism boats if they present themselves in the future.)

Thinking in terms of multiple industries such as marina, tourism, and nautical provides hedging aspects of economic growth can help us think about how one of a kind locations can be used to support different economic factors within the city. That might also raise the value of other aspects of future development that often follows recreational destinations that would be attracted to waterfront vacationing. Everything is negotiable! Once this project is started I think the cities (Escanaba and Gladstone) and Delta County might start thinking about some of the other buildings in the area and attract interest to them as well (See Esky-Gladstone Downtown, Start Up Delta County, Tourism Micro Manufacturing, Delta County Equity Fund, Escanaba Venture Capital, Attracting SME,). Still thinking about the prior happenings at the jail site. I'm just curious. 🤔