Russia-Ukraine Almost Ready to Negotiate: Russian Plan B?

It has become increasingly apparent that Russia is unlikely to secure a decisive military victory in Ukraine (Negotiation or Land Grab Tactic). Now that they haven't secured a quick victory, lack full Chinese support , and economic havoc at home they are likely working on negotiating their way out of the situation with Plan B (Lack of China Support). I suspect Putin needs some type of win and must choose to double down on a failed strategy or negotiate his way out of it. 

(I don't really know...I'm just trying to figure out the logic and how these situations are seen. Historians, academics, and researchers do this all the time.)

I suspect there is some pressure from China, Putin's inner circle supporters, and the Russian people to start negotiating a settlement. The military situation looks very bleak and his troops are beginning to falter and fall back. The quick victory didn't happen and there is little support for him to keep troops there economically or socially.

Here is the long-term damage that he may not have thought about in Plan A (The risk of using the same mental anchor to solve problems). Russia just withdrew itself in part from the world and the world economy (At least for some time.) and it may have rallied the U.S. to recognize some growing future threats (on a number of different levels) and could push the U.S. to develop further with more bi-partisan interest (Has the Iron Curtain been redrawn?). It may have also set pro-capitalist Oligarchs on a new line of thinking about who should be running the Russian government (Wow...that would be interesting! There are some incentives there for it.)

 (These aren't facts but just a way to sort of look at what is happening and make sense of it. We will have to wait and see what actually happens. We can project but time tells us what actually happens. 🤔)

House Bill 5570 (2021): No Tax on Gas In Michigan?

“We aren’t addicted to oil, but our cars are.”
 — James Woolsey

The senate and house passed House Bill 5570 (2021) 24-14 Senate and 63-39 State House that would stop collecting 27 cents per gallon in state tax revenue. It would apply to gasoline, diesel, and alternative fuels. You can see the history HERE and the actual bill HERE. Read through the bill and get a grasp of what seems most important. I pulled the following information. 

-"beginning April 18 1, 2022 through September 30, 2022, the rate of tax on motor fuel 19 under this subsection shall be zero cents per gallon". 

-"If the tax on motor fuel is zero cents per gallon under 5 section 8(1)(d), then the tax on alternative fuel is zero cents per 6 gallon equivalent".

Now decide what you believe. Lower taxes is good for economy and/or tax revenue to fund projects (You will sort of see where there is room for debate on these issues.)? At this point I think it goes to the governors office to consider accepting or vetoing.  The essential issue is Russian fuel (at least as stated) but the approaches might be different on how to deal with rising consumer costs. 

Lack of Chinese Support May Impact Russia's Plans

Everyone is talking about Russia and Ukraine. An interesting development is the signaling by China that it doesn't want to get involved and that support will likely be muted. You can read more about an analysis of the financial considerations of China in 'China can see the limits of bailing out Russia's economy'  and the difficulties that may impact China. It should be noted that much of the world is supporting Ukraine and if China becomes substantially involved there would be a subtle but noticeable and sustained impact on China's long term economic prospects as alternative business partners are sought (This is something that might benefit the U.S. as a preferred long-term trading partner. As soon as we get our political leadership to focus on solutions. There is some indication that just like in MI. our national leaders are also starting to work together through good kharma bi-partisanship. Old Dogs with New Tricks I guess.🤔 )

Lack of China's support, international backlash, Russian economic decline, and bogged down operations in Ukraine were not likely part of the initial scenario. What we also see without Chinese support is that Russian antiwar (and likely anti-Putin as the seen cause of the war.) social divisions and oligarch press (Desiring a return to normalcy so they can continue to make billions is going to create problems of sustainability.) Few choices because increased brutality to win the war will lead to increased global disdain and economic punishment but a lack of clear victory will undermine public faith in the war and those who are leading it. 

Let us just wait and see what happens.....its one possible outcome.....of many possible outcomes (Some of which are pretty ugly.).  This is where you are likely going to see desperation of Russian leadership rising and behaviors that are more symbolic to maintain a status of winning as people scramble for whatever Game Plan B was (This might end up being a historical lesson in the risks of "yes" man/woman surrounding a strong personality, diminishing institutional checks & balances,  not looking at all of the alternatives and scenarios, and always using the same "hammer everything" approach that comes from a personal outlook on life. I don't know...its possible....one scenario out of many.🤷)

Elder Asian Woman Attacked Viciously: Symptoms of What? Time for Change?

 Hate crime can be anyone on anyone as long as they have a "legitimate"(meaning not legitimate) categorized target to focus on. A behavior like this is rage and deep seated emotional imbalance with an outward projection. The target would not warrant such hate simply because she is Asian. As a people and as a community we must learn to control and manage people who have hate aggressive issues (Extremism is rising). I would be surprised if this was the first outpouring of violence and extremism from this individual. Perhaps somewhere in their life we could have derailed them from a crime like this if someone would have stepped up to prior behaviors and encouraged mental health (Why I support Michigan Track and Coding). 

I'm happy we passed the Emmett Till Anti-Lynching Act but we should have already known better. Until we focus on the essential values of what makes us American we will struggle with seeing ourselves through the same mental prism (that leads to unity). We must have an honest conversation about race and religion in this country and ensure people understand and know that our only path to the highest national performance will include raising our moral and human capital capacity to truer equality (The problem is defining that.). I believe these officers did a great job catching and taking into custody this man (Officers and people are on the same team.....if we can get some of our politicians to stop exploiting these differences. Trust me when I say their are guilty fingers pointed everywhere and into every race, religion and background. Don't believe me? I hang out with people from every background and I listen to their stories and how some define each other. The good news is the vast majority of us have no issue integrating and intermingling. Its the vocal few that get the microphone and prompt others to follow poor values. We should put down the self-oriented immaturity and focus on building the best nation the world has seen. For now lets just sit back and watch what our leaders going to do. I'm not a fan of politics but don't judge them too quickly either...they may surprise us!🤷 )

Sen. Romney: Putin Will Only Be Reasonable When He Fears NATO

Senator Romney discusses the threats we face to democracy. We are at a time when internal division and external pressure are meeting economic prospects for the future. It is the time when Americans should unite to build the 1.) first advanced innovative digital again nation (that includes the benefits of an innovative military, space, data infrastructure, infrastructure, and energy), 2.) walk the talk in our freedoms to maximize human capital (education adjustments, justice reform, best-brightest development regardless of socio-economic status, etc...), 3.) connect politically and economically with the world to reorient ourselves to the center of the supply chains (treaties, values, promotion of democracy, etc...). 

As far as planes to Ukraine go there can be arguments on either side. I agree that flying them into Ukraine might not be our best option but we do have trucks right? Donate the trucks and planes. Let them pick them up and drive them across the boarder 🤷(Its an option to think about, discard, accept, etc...Multiple entry points, different cargos, parts, different routes, assembly points, etc...). There are risks doing something there are risks to doing nothing. What we can say is that Ukraine is an important marker for things to come. 

I support my politicians not exclusively on party lip service or "yes" man-woman status but on their ability to lead. Democrat and Republican leaders are viewed the same in my mind. If you have leadership ability in you then have it and if you don't you should find another occupation. I think Senator Romney has integrity and moral courage (I also think President Biden has a good soul. They are just opinions.). That doesn't mean I agree or disagree with everything he (they) is saying. I'm also not of radical political bent and instead see my nation as one people suffering from the annoying aspect of hyper-politics nipping at our future vitality. (Oh yes I'm still a light right Republican.)

Dancing Your Way to Health, Fitness and Social Proficency

Email Fitness Training

This blog isn't only about business, investment, higher education and government affairs as it often delves into other issues that might enhance a healthy lifestyle for business professions (i.e. dancing). One thing that many professionals suffer with is finding fun activities to socialize and stay in shape. It can be difficult to keep up with your fitness routine if you are balancing the many different aspects of a business life. From boardroom to ballroom dancing is one way to increase your health fitness and social proficiency. 

According to an article in Time Magazine entitled, 'Why Dancing Is the Best Thing You Can Do For Your Body' when we incorporate dance into our fitness routines we....

1.) Burn 300 calories per half hour.

2.) Improve mood and lower stress. 

3.) Enhance social connectedness

Look around in places like Meet Up, Facebook, dance studios and event pages and you will find lots of different entry level dance classes. You can do anything from salsa to hip hop. Some will burn more calories and some will burn less. I probably did most of them at one point or another in my life. You will naturally meet people and get in great shape. Use it as an augmentation to your current routine to avoid burnout and develop your "practical" skills and muscle usage. 

If your interested in virtual fitness training send me a message. I have fitness trainer, yoga and self defense certifications and do training as a hobby to help keep myself motivated to meet my own fitness goals. Nothing better then to be involved in the field. Limited space and availability. Email Fitness Training

35 Years of Business Intelligence Research: Gaps and Needs in Exploratory Methods

Business Intelligence (BI) is becoming increasingly important aspect of navigating complex environmental factors that impact and influence strategic outcomes. While business intelligence often is based on understanding and finding solutions to specific problems through the practical application of the scientific method. Analysts must understand how to mine, collect analyze, understanding and put to good use information in a way that furthers the strategic objectives of an organization (business and/or government). By reviewing current literature on business intelligence one can make an assessment of the gaps in BI methodologies and their limitations on understanding and solving unique problems. 

Sometimes we become accustomed to certain methods of investigating, understanding and interpreting data and that can lead to costly miscalculations that can cost your business money. Many companies rely on premade software that is great for understanding large amounts of data but might not actually solve a complex problem that hasn't been fully defined. We will want to make sure that the methodology is valid and appropriate to the specific problem at hand. To solve unique complex problems means we must sometimes change the assumptions of research to move into uncharted territory where researchers may not have explored in the past (Think if cutting edge fields and unique problems of applicability of research.). While preexisting methods (i.e. such as shelf software) can provide insights into well known problems such methods should be secondary to understanding essential research question as defined by the problems a company is currently facing.

A metanalysis in the journal Management Research Review focused on 120 articles spanning 35 years of research on BI intelligence (Talaou & Kohtamäki, 2020). The authors found that more scrutiny of the gaps between BI process, antecedents and outcomes could help further the BI field.  Likewise, they also found eight dimensions where these patterns and contradictions occurred such as environmental, organizational, managerial-individual antecedents, BI process; strategic outcomes; firm performance outcomes; decision-making; and organizational intelligence.

The authors leave us with the conclusion that business intelligence (like other types of intelligence) are stuck within certain modes of thinking and won't open their practices to new ways of collecting and analyzing intelligence data. Intelligence managers don't like to have their intelligence practices reviewed even when they have been shown to be ineffective and not based in appropriate methodology or strong construct validity (i.e. Lack of measurable methods that actually reflect the behaviors/phenomenon.). They indicate that opening business intelligence practices to outside reviews by scientists/scholars might help improve those methods. 

Complex problems abound in business and those that can master these problems are more likely to succeed and flourish then those that don't. Cutting edge industries must rely on research and development to innovate and grow in a complex world where factors often change by the day. More research leads to more knowledge but only when the initial problems are well defined. Exploratory research helps define those issues and potential methods so that quantitative research can better justify cause and effect relationships for environmental mastery through problem solving.

Talaou, Y & Kohtamäki, M. (Sept. 2020). 35 years of research on business intelligence process: a synthesis of a fragmented literature. Management Research Review, 44 (5). Retrieved March 13th, 2022 from https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/MRR-07-2020-0386/full/pdf?title=35-years-of-research-on-business-intelligence-process-a-synthesis-of-a-fragmented-literature