Commercial Fishing Coming Back in San Diego (Photo)

 There is an interesting article entitled 'A Deep Dive into the San Diego Fishing' that discusses commercial fishing coming back in San Diego. It was once the Tuna Capital but that has change as overfishing and restrictions took their toll. The article indicates that commercial fish are coming back and so fishing companies are taking notice.

It kind of has been a little fantasy of mine to get a commercial fishing boat in the UP and just go out a few days a week. Ok its not real commercial fishing but it would be nice to sell what I catch to a few Escanaba stores. I wonder how we might better understand and fix the Great Lakes commercial fishing industry?

US GDP Rises: The Influence of the Digital Economy

The economy is still improving and that is good news for business and job seekers. Increases in GDP should also come with a better understanding of how the post-COVID transforming market may need additional measurements to fully grasp the contributory nature of the digital economy. Understanding Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Digital Gross Domestic Product DGDP might be helpful in this discussion.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, "Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 6.5 percent in the second quarter of 2021, reflecting the continued economic recovery, reopening of establishments, and continued government response related to the COVID-19 pandemic. In the second quarter, government assistance payments in the form of loans to businesses and grants to state and local governments increased, while social benefits to households, such as the direct economic impact payments, declined. In the first quarter of 2021, real GDP increased 6.3 percent (revised)." (BEA GDP, July 19th, 2021)

In the report the BEA moves on to discuss in greater detail what is going on, "The increase in real GDP in the second quarter reflected increases in personal consumption expenditures (PCE), nonresidential fixed investment, exports, and state and local government spending that were partly offset by decreases in private inventory investment, residential fixed investment, and federal government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased (table 2). (BEA, Q2-21 GDP July 29th, 2021)

Its important to understand economics from a macro economic viewpoint to see how the larger systems are working and changing the market while our metrics may not accurately reflecting the nature of those changes (One of the reasons why proper digital age measurements can lead to a Calibrated Tax Model for international commerce.). To do that we start with the basics. Some might wonder what a Real Gross Domestic Product (Real GDP) is? "Real gross domestic product (Real GDP) is an inflation-adjusted measure that reflects the value of all goods and services produced by an economy in a given year (expressed in base-year prices) and is often referred to as constant-price GDP, inflation-corrected GDP, or constant dollar GDP. (Investopedia, 2021)"

GDP struggles as a measurement in an increasingly digital world. GDP has been criticized as not capturing the full scope of a non-tangible virtual economy (Watanabe, Tou, & Neittaanmaki, 2018). A better metric could mean we uncover significant additional resources at our fingertips that we are not fully calculated national development (Metrics are imperfect and that is why we must rethink them from time to time. Keep in mind the difference between numbers and actual available units of productivity. i.e. fictitious number vs. actual labor power kind of thing.).

According to the Harvard Business Review, "...GDP captures only the monetary value of all final goods produced in the economy." (Brynjolfsson & Collis, 2019 para 8). Meaning that it has difficulty with things like ideas and items that don't fit within the current theoretical schools of economic thought (This is where too much elite indoctrination can limit the ability to see across fields of study.) 

Digital GDP can be difficult to understand because its definition is often off. For example, some might define digital GDP as free services while others broaden it to include wider aspects of the virtual economy. A 2018 report by the IMF Indicates, "Digitalization encompasses a wide range of new applications of information technology in business models and products that are transforming the economy and social interactions. Digitalization is both an enabler and a disruptor of businesses." (IMF, 2018, Staff Report).

What you will find is that global tax systems lack standard measurements of the digital economy because the definitions are in flux and there are pre-existing categories many of these digital activities already fall imperfectly into (i.e. leading to miscategorization of some measurements). Something as simple as how we categorize information can make a big difference in what we see and what we focus on in terms of policy development. (You can dig deeper into the data but you can't predict it without new innovative practices. See Big Data, Manufacturing, Hypothesis Driven Decision)

The digital economy may push us to change the way we conduct business and calculate national performance for decision making purposes. In the next 5 years we may add U.S. based cryptocurrency and further increases in such things as online marketspace and virtual work that leads to the necessity in taking a closer look at more fundamental economic activities (i.e. statistics that help us understand and attract business in the digital economy eras as well as ensuring government understand the full nature of the economy for such things as a calibrated tax system and updated policies.)

Metrics are great but they also have a high probability of being somewhat misleading. We measure what we already understand and sometimes we find new things through calculating this data in new ways. Other times (i.e. digital economy) it is better to think about the possibility of leading the conversation on the digital economy (..especially if we want to lead the world economy in this new era.) in ways that add current international metrics with some new numbers that may better reflect digital capital. Countries are looking for direction on how to measure and calculate the new economic realities they find themselves in. Jumping in as an international leader with the world's biggest economy might create lots of other advantages in international commerce through pro-active guidance (In other words, lets tackle and influence the direction of world commercial thought. There are advantages to being innovative thought leaders as well.).

Brynjolfsson, E.  & Collis, C (2019, Dec. 19. para 8) How Should We Measure the Digital Economy? Harvard Business Review. https://hbr.org/2019/11/how-should-we-measure-the-digital-economy

China Q2-2021 7.9% y/y (Moody's China GDP, 2021) 

Real Gross Domestic Product (2021).in Investopedia  https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/realgdp.asp

Watanbe, C., Tou, Y. & Neittanmaki, P. (2018). A new paradox of the digital economy - Structural sources of the limitation of GDP statistics. Technology in Society, 55. https://www.elibrary.imf.org/doc/IMF001/25666-9781484389706/25666-9781484389706/Other_formats/Source_PDF/25666-9781484395431.pdf

Infrastructure Bill Passes Senate: Cross-Structure Development Synergy

Blow the dust off the U.S. economic machine and flip the power switch! Years of American manufacturing "know how" is going to be pulled out of the library archives and applied to maximize advantages from national infrastructure investments. Aging rail lines, sinking ports and a spaghetti electric grid are getting an overhaul beyond just a few more sand bags. Senate passes HR3684 the INVEST in America Act designed to improve the core infrastructure that helps to maintain its economic positioning in the emerging Digital Era (Information Age).

After years of penny pinching neglect our manufacturing infrastructure might help update the U.S. economic platform in a way that creates cross pollination and integration of multiple core structures (i.e. logistics such as product delivery, manufacturing such as advanced products, and virtual marketspaces, etc. See Rethink Service, Supply Chain Integration, Internet & Supply Chain, International Sales & Knowledge, and Delta County Shipping). It is the process of co development with hungry investors, entrepreneurs, and labor that matches American grit to the tools it needs to start rebuilding its future (I guess instead of giving it away. 🙅).

What is new is that we are not dealing only with hard infrastructures like we did during The New Deal, but instead dealing with the integration of virtual technologies with hard infrastructure as co-grid components. As each of these systems begins to interact on a macro scale we may see a significant boost in cross structure functionality through the integration and pairing of different pieces of a new economic platform (i.e. physical/virtual networks, crypto currency, advanced manufacturing, etc... that signals a higher state of functioning.). That may also mean the U.S. becoming one of the first advanced digital age platforms for international business growth and investment (or not! 🤷 Just playing around with the idea in my Transactional Cluster Research. See Next Economic Platform and See Digital GDP Govt. Mind and See Economic Cluster Research).

COVID pushed US companies (and other international companies) to adapt from a globally challenging pandemic into the virtual world based on the foundations of digital era technology (i.e. Internet, Satellites, robotics, AI, etc...) that was in its infancy a few decades ago but is now advanced enough to be functionally practical. We adapted these tools quickly to overcome a challenge but its advantages will want to keep (commuting and work from home arrangements, virtual meetings, higher forms of communication, etc...).

New business strategies that worked well during COVID will likely continue to be implemented through more formal ventures; the infrastructure bill being an example of change (...and network development). Wide scale adaptations of companies, government, and infrastructure boosts to virtual-physical networks might mean another economic boon in the future (1-3 years). Now that infrastructure is changing we will have more and more of our economy go online leading to a possible boost era for companies when their first-in efforts meet with the post-COVID U.S. economic system  (See Economic Projected Adaptation and Needs Fulfill Economic System)

Kelsey Snell from NPR did well breaking down some of the complex information so its easy to understand in her article, 'The Senate Approves The $1 Trillion Bipartisan Infrastructure Bill In A Historic Vote'

$73 billion for electric grid and power infrastructure
$66 billion for passenger and freight rail
$65 billion for broadband investments
$55 billion for water systems and infrastructure
$50 billion for Western water storage
$39 billion for public transit
$25 billion for airports
$21 billion for environmental remediation projects
$17 billion for ports and waterways
$15 billion for electric vehicles
$11 billion for road safety

(There could be changes still.)

You can also read another description: The Washington Post has a fairly solid article entitled 'Senate approves bipartisan, $1 trillion infrastructure bill, bringing major Biden goal one step closer' written by Tony Romm that covers the main ideas. 

Looking at the Bill

This bill addresses general provisions related to federal-aid highway, transit, highway safety, motor carrier, research, hazardous materials, and rail programs of the Department of Transportation (DOT). It is focused on the core infrastructure needed within the country. While it may not state this specifically it is part of a larger strategy to return manufacturing back to the U.S. The bill is long and complex but fairly straight forward. This will have an impact on most things going on in our economy because it focuses on the fundamentals of information and resource exchange (See Data Triangulation). 

In the HR3684 INVEST in America Act you will find lots of details and budgeting information. What we do find is that much of the effort is on basic infrastructure. Basic infrastructure often creates net positives because they impact very basic costs such as shipping or Internet. As investments move into these areas (assuming the money is well spent) they will improve upon the larger infrastructure processes. If done well and in coordination they may be able to improve multiple basic infrastructure aspects that create further changes (i.e. online market spaces and the cost to deliver products. There are lots of co-development examples.)

Among other provisions, the bill

• extends FY2021 enacted levels through FY2022 for federal-aid highway, transit, and safety programs;
• reauthorizes for FY2023-FY2026 several surface transportation programs, including the federal-aid highway program, transit programs, highway safety, motor carrier safety, and rail programs;
• addresses climate change, including strategies to reduce the climate change impacts of the surface transportation system and a vulnerability assessment to identify opportunities to enhance the resilience of the surface transportation system and ensure the efficient use of federal resources;
• revises Buy America procurement requirements for highways, mass transit, and rail;
• establishes a rebuild rural bridges program to improve the safety and state of good repair of bridges in rural communities;
• implements new safety requirements across all transportation modes; and
• directs DOT to establish a pilot program to demonstrate a national motor vehicle per-mile user fee to restore and maintain the long-term solvency of the Highway Trust Fund and achieve and maintain a state of good repair in the surface transportation system.

Boarder Crisis Getting Worse Says Homeland Security Secretary Mayorkas

The migrant situation is getting worse. There is desperation there. I usually go down to see orphans but haven't done so in a while because of the border issue (and a Pandemic). The crisis is growing and people are not sure on how to deal with it. While there may be some shorter term solutions much of them will take longer and are relationship development issues with other countries. 

Personally, I would shorten the low cost manufacturing from China to Mexico (shorten supply chains), consider finishing the wall (highly contentious issue. I wish we didn't need walls. Its the wrong signal but it is one viable possibility. We should be open to any reasonable solution wall or not? ) and support/fund the orphanages in Mexico and really do some amazing things. I support Corozona which has done well for kids.

Unemployment July 2021-Leisure & Hospitality, Government Education, and Professional & Business Services

The jobs numbers are continuing to improve. Employment increases in leisure and hospitality, in local government education, and in professional and business services take center stage. It takes a minute to read the descriptions of what each of the terms mean.  Education is likely to be a bigger discussion going forward after the rehiring of teachers and training them. Likely there won't be the same campus levels so there will need to be a transition of some teachers to more online education and that in turn would put pressure on online education become more established as an institutional system.

Its also possible to think about the increase in transportation and warehousing. I'm not 100% sure I understand all the parts but perhaps we might see some increase in consumer spending in the next few months. Economics can be so fickle depending on so many different factors. I try and break them out but its a large field of study (..actually human behavior. I failed a Harvard Class in Economics so listen at your own risk. 😮).

"Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 943,000 in July, and the unemployment rate declined by 0.5 percentage point to 5.4 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, in local government education, and in professional and business services. "

"In July, employment in leisure and hospitality increased by 380,000. Two-thirds of the job gain was in food services and drinking places (+253,000). Employment also continued to increase in accommodation (+74,000) and in arts, entertainment, and recreation (+53,000). Despite recent growth, employment in leisure and hospitality is down by 1.7 million, or 10.3 percent, from its level in February 2020."

"Transportation and warehousing added 50,000 jobs in July. Job growth occurred in transit and ground passenger transportation (+19,000), warehousing and storage (+11,000), and couriers and messengers (+8,000). Employment in transportation and warehousing has grown by 534,000 since April 2020; the industry has recovered 92.9 percent of the jobs lost during the February-April 2020 recession (-575,000)."

(added note......If were adding jobs I think Delta County would be a great place for a shipping hub with its port. Alternatively it could be used for ship building and movement of specialized products. See Delta County Shipping and DC Small Man. and Shipping)

"Employment in professional and business services rose by 60,000 in July. Within the industry, employment in the professional and technical services component rose by 43,000 over the month and is 121,000 above its February 2020 level. (Professional and technical services includes industries such as accounting and bookkeeping services, management and technical consulting services, and scientific research and development services.) By contrast, employment in the administrative and waste services component (which includes temporary help services) changed little over the month (+20,000) and is 577,000 lower than in February 2020. Employment in the management of companies and enterprises component was also little changed over the month (-3,000) but is 100,000 lower than the level in -4- February 2020. Employment in professional and business services overall is down by 556,000 since February 2020. "

July 2021 Employment US Economy by Dr. Murad Abel on Scribd

Its a Nice Day Out So Enjoy It

 “Do anything, but let it produce joy.” ― Walt Whitman

Its the little things!

The Responsibility to Challenge Hate Groups-Social and Formal Connections

Throughout the years I have found that hate and self-identity are very much mixed up together into a personal schema. Because we form our identities through our social groups they become a primary driver on how we act and treat minorities (...or each other. Its more along the lines of dealing with differences...minority, majority, or otherwise). While each group of friends may have their own beliefs these same social connections can also impact law enforcement and their perceived obligations to those social networks.

We have responsibilities to ensure that local needs are met but we sometimes have to think beyond that to the bigger national picture. Government entities have greater responsibilities to ensure that Americans as a national collective are having their needs met (There are many reasons on a macro level why we must support a free society. Hundreds of years of philosophical pontification and research tell us the types of freedoms that lead to motivation and societal growth. There are balances to individual and collective rights.). Social groups can cause havoc on institutional effectiveness (The more social groups derail institutional missions, the more misaligned the institution becomes.) 

While many of these local groups might not view themselves as racists and bigots their inability to accept small differences means they have closed themselves off from any variation in their identities (in and out group dynamics form based on these subtle group codes/beliefs.). While much of these perceived differences are small they can easily exploited for personal gain (that is the problem.)

I'm a supporter of police and have interacted with them enough in numerous capacities to understand that as an occupational approach they are intent on doing the right thing. However, when social networks become involved these right things become blurry through divided loyalties. I've seen departments do the professional thing and insulate their officers and others do the opposite and in turn decision making was skewed toward pushing for a specific outcome.) 

Law enforcement should always seek to maintain objectivity so as to solve the most amount of problems to fulfill their institutional contract to society. The wrong type of information by the "right" type of person can create big problems. Instead of looking at the facts, we are willing to run with conjecture (at least until we are confronted with more accurate information that is hard to ignore. This is why one cannot truly say they "know" something. Its all possibility based on information presented and how we construct meaning from it.)

It takes time to sort of ferret out the different factors at play (If it was that easy we would have solved it a long time ago.) Despite that there are a few general lessons we might gather from situations like these. What I can say is that we should think about how to protect against allowing social groups  1.) from being easily manipulated and 2.) social connections to law enforcement that can be exploited.

While race and racism has become a politically charged topic it nevertheless is an absolutely necessity to tackle in the modern world. We are smarter now and know that we need all human capital pulling in the same direction for national development. That will be very difficult if misdirected social groups determine the course of direction and warp the values of law enforcement, judges, policy makers, etc... (Depends on who your source of values and knowledge is? Pick a vision of what the country should look like!). As a nation we need to set our compass higher and restore/maintain trust in those institutions that can make or break our futures (These institutions have a purpose.). 

People would think I'm liberal but that's not really the case. I do believe it is time we make racism and bigotry taboo in good moral conscious so that we can all compete together on the global marketplace (...suppress racism and not differences of opinion. We always need healthy debate to solve problems. If there is a problem solving evidence based discussion going on then its a good discussion for growth.). I support our officers 100% and support the removal of officers that tarnish the institutions good reputation (Individual officers shouldn't detract from the positive activities of many good officers. Strengthen of the system sometimes means removing bad apples and making a more empowered force to report wrong doing. A culture change may be necessary for some departments. I prefer to take what is working already and enhance it as a solution so we can build off of existing officer strength. Strengths based approach for leadership enhancement and officer retention.)