Briefing: Press Secretary Jen Psaki and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen (05-7-21)

The economy will have a longer-term approach and getting people back into the labor force will help the recovery.  She mentioned there are some trends of people not being as involved in the labor force as they once were. Long-term growth prospects will depend on whether we invest in American families and help them engage the market in meaningful ways. Averages give a better understanding of economic data than looking at daily chaotic fluctuations.

Escanaba City Council Meeting (May 6th, 2021)-Balancing Budgets and Creating Smart Investment Cities

Some people love action movies while others crave drama flicks but sometimes its kind of cool to understand city activities and see if there are ways to improve future opportunities (🤓Yes I realize its not as fun as watching the Packers but "real life" is played on a more global arena 😯). Watching the happenings of local government meetings, helps to get a feel for how everyday hum drum issues of city management are influenced by wider geo-political adjustments. As our government reorients toward long-term job creation and manufacturing development there will be adjustments in local governance as well (i.e. have city hall meetings shared online). As national infrastructure changes, industry will change, and in turn shift the platforms in which towns/cities exist that can come with benefits from global market alignment. For the most part I'm watching because I like to be an informed citizen but also because I want to understand more about city administration (That is not exclusive to Escanaba but to the general concept of city management). A few ideas and thoughts below ...

 Key Points:

1. City Budgets: You can read Escanaba's city budget HERE. I haven't read through the budget in significant detail but it looks like a fairly standard for cities of similar size. Local and national budgets are likely to be impacted by major market changes as the U.S. and China adjust their global networks to feed industry and growth. Attracting new businesses and opportunities is enhanced by developing a calibrated tax system that can balance out different stakeholder needs to attract business that feed growth that leads to fiscal balance  I'm thinking about how lower HQ costs could potentially impact supplier network investment that will significantly improve local budgets (See HQ Supply Taxes). All of these ideas are theoretical in nature and more of an exploratory approach to understand via real life models how a larger national theory might operate on the local level (Where it impacts real people, institutions, and cultures. See Cultural and Financial Development).

It is important to be flexible with budgets. Let us say that some new industry wants to invest in the area (Delta County Start Up) and/or Escanaba becomes a "hot spot" tourist destination (See Digital Nomads). As city revenue grows it may be possible to set up additional revenue streams beyond tax payer dollars to ensure that as the city expenses grow that its revenue grows at a slightly accelerated rate to develop long-term sustainability 💰💸  This can be partially explained via increases in revenue and benchmarking expenditure loops. Positive budgets naturally impact the quality of life for residents as local projects (influencing cultural branding) can be internally financed through surplus city revenue in a way that improve the lives of residents, their families, and their future children. See Perpetual Sustainable Development). 

The medium term impact of COVID is local municipalities seeking to take advantage of a future increase in high technology development. City budgets will then start to focus more on meeting the digital global market through tech/communication enhancements (See Delta County 18 Million Broadband). As places like Delta County become influenced by larger national infrastructure development they be pushed by necessity to adjust. Getting ahead of the digitization curve and maximizing one's future market position could come through the development of smarter cities better connected to the global market. Read a pretty descent overview article at Getting Clever About Smart Cities:New Opportunities Require NewBusiness Models. (Wouldn't it be cool in this philosophical exercise if we could spark digitization and innovation through pin pointed investments? See the Working Hub 👍)

2.Firearms: Not being able to use firearms within the city limits. Great idea! However, I'm curious about if I practice a recurve bow (vs. crossbow) in my backyard if it violates any ordinances? 🤔 No biggie either way! Just curious?

3.Hog Rally: Rock the Docks, July 23rd alcohol and parade request. I sort of thought about getting a bike in the next two years. I'm split between a Hog and Rocket!

4. Grants for Water: Discussion on grants for the water treatment plant.  Grants can be so difficult and time consuming. I'm trying to get some grants for one our our local firefighter organizations and the large amount of paperwork just to submit for some of these grants is time consuming. Lots of submissions but not very fruitful!📧

Now, if your a company executive reading through this (Sometimes the language and tone of writing attracts certain demographics and psychographics) and want to unload some corporate sponsorship and good works money to balance your corporate tax rate I'm sure that any number of volunteer firefighter organizations in the county/area would be happy to provide you with a receipt from one of their life-saving non-profit entities (....not to mention towns/cities like Escanaba and Gladstone have relatively small budgets wouldn't likely mind help either 💁). I know of one fire department that is looking for a new grass truck and air bottles. Help those who help us. :) Nahma, Township, Ensign Twp. Escanaba Township Fire Department, Thompson Township Fire Department.

5. Its nice of the city to give a kudos to someone improving their abilities. It helps create a better sense of community. 

Agendas:

You may be interested in the agenda HERE There are also previous agendas if you want to browse HERE.

Couple of Important Topics:

A couple of interesting key points from the Agenda......

Approval – Michigan HOG Rally Parade and Reception at Rock the Dock – Recreation. Explanation: The Delta County Chamber of Commerce is requesting approval for a parade permit and alcohol sales for Friday, July 23, 2021, in conjunction with the HOG Rally. Administration is recommending approval of the request provided: 1) proper liability insurance will be filed with the City naming the City as an additional insured.

Administration sought Council approval to award Great Lakes Fireworks of West Branch, Michigan, to conduct the annual 4th of July fireworks display on Saturday, July 3rd in the amount of $10,000. The City of Escanaba Recreation Department will be raising additional funds to contribute to the fireworks display. Great Lakes Fireworks is a sole source supplier. 

Drop to 498,000 Unemployment Claims (05-06-21)-Industry Innovation and New Labor Skills Needed

When economies speed up they will experience a need for additional labor power to fill open employment positions. Considering national growth improved 6.4% GDP in the first quarter of 2021 there will be a net draw from the current unemployed population leading to a decline in new unemployment benefit filings.  It seems that we have plenty of excess general labor but might not have enough specialized labor for certain fast developing industries. Thus, the labor market will also likely see uneven recovery with those skills in high demand experiencing increased wages while those in unskilled labor not moving up as fast. In general, if the trend continues upward you could see increased wages in certain emerging post-Covid industries.

You can get more details in DOL's May 6th, 2021 Press Release HERE. 
 

I'm really looking at the general trends of employment/unemployment and market adjustments in the type of jobs that were shifted as a result of COVID (...and increased digital transformation of markets). I'm doing a thought experiment on an in-progress theory on innovation clusters and innovative development. You can read an unedited working paper HERE. Commanding strong wages also means we will need train workers to meet emerging market demand to further feed industry growth(See Theory of General Equilibrium). As a nation, if we are considering re-developing our export orientated manufacturing capacities then we will also rely heavily on supplying the market with new skilled labor competencies that come through our educational systems (i.e. things like focusing on STEM or further developing online education or developing more effective learning systems.)

As innovation catalyzes market change through new products/services (See Theory of Economic Development) it will also influence which countries will likely see improved labor markets and which one will not (...perhaps an opportunity to shift the global market in U.S. favor? 🤔).  A study in Applied Economics on export innovation and skilled labor demand helps to show that needs for skilled labor rises when there is a new product, production method or expenditures on R&D (Aboushady & Zaki, 2021). Innovation creates "skill premium" driven by "skilled-biased technological change" which could impact skilled labor in ways that haven't been seen since the Model-T rolled off the assembly line.

Key point: Innovation (and even more so in manufacturing) leads to greater opportunities for skilled labor.

Since industry innovation and skilled labor supply are intertwined, the model I'm working on uses the local community college as a cluster resource for development of advanced skilled trades inputs in emerging industries such as space, military, outdoor equipment, etc... (Putting together industry collaborators could not only innovate existing industries but also possibly develop new industries. See Multi Cluster Delta County and See Transactional Subfactors.) Encouraging industries to develop innovative momentum through clustering can also reduce the impact of negative constraints through proximity (virtual, physical, both) (See Theory of Constraints) and in turn the lead time it takes to invent and sell products (Encouraging faster adaptations that can impact market dominance). 

Nora Aboushady & Chahir Zaki (2021) Do exports and innovation matter for the demand of skilled labor?, International Review of Applied Economics, 35:1, 25-44, DOI: https://erf.org.eg/app/uploads/2018/02/Chahir-Nora.pdf

DOL May 6th 2021 Press Release by Dr. Murad Abel on Scribd

China Trade Imbalance Shows Why Americans Should Get Back Into Manufacturing

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced that the goods and services deficit was $74.4 billion in March marking a 57.6% increase over last year (BEA). The numbers are a stark reminder that we, and likely the rest of the world, are soaking up Chinese inventory of products with few American alternatives. Our low cost outsourcing has left some of our cupboards bare in terms of providing a formable market response. We may need to get creative with solutions and empower a mammoth group of diverse youngsters how to flap their wings so they can not only compete but thrive in the global market place. We just need an "open minded" place for them to experiment with ideas before pushing them out of the nest and into a bigger world🦅.

We talk a lot about competing with China in goods production but as of today's date we are unable to muster the political capital to do what is necessary to build an export oriented economy (It can be done!). This will likely be one of the greatest challenges of our time as different leaders ponder their options and judge the needs for compromise and solutions (See Evidence Based Decisions). As our fully mature economy walks down a very narrow rock covered path into a fresh and emergent digital world we don't want it do to so blindly and without a good sense of direction (Limited information, time, and options is when compromise and general consensus is needed so we can choose our fate together. Some politicians will seek to resolve impasse while others crave to white knuckle on principle alone. Wheat from chaff. See Leadership by Leading or Leadership by Position/Power).

Problem Solving and Compromise
in Positive Politics

At this juncture in history our nation needs politicians who have a high concern about the beneficial outcomes of all parties/stakeholders involved in national negotiations. According to the managerial grid when both negotiation parties want beneficial outcomes they will engage in problem solving activities (Blake & Mouton, 1964). When parties want only their own outcomes, and don't care much about others, they rely heavily on forcing as a strategy (Its interesting that side A pushes and then side B pushes back and the game is argued over a very narrow field of sometimes trivial differences. Few look in other directions and beyond the horizon at where unexplored opportunities lay). This is the nature of modern day politics and why we will need to change our conversational dynamics to solve problems and effectively compete in the global business game. The next generation needs well meaning problem solvers and not problem makers to adapt and master this next challenge. (See Manager's Dilemma 😵)

If you want to learn more about negotiation and the different styles/outcomes you can read Negotiation and Bargaining.

Blake, R. R., & Mouton, J. S. (1964). The managerial GRID. Houston, TX: Gulf.Steinel, W., & Harinck, F. (2020, September 28). Negotiation and Bargaining. Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Psychology. Retrieved 4 May. 2021, from https://oxfordre.com/psychology/view/10.1093/acrefore/9780190236557.001.0001/acrefore-9780190236557-e-253.

Trade Deficit US China May 4th 2021 US Bureau of Economic Analysis by Dr. Murad Abel on Scribd

G7 Meeting-Serious Geopolitical Issues at Play

London isn't just about good tea and awesome rock music! They also also host serious discussions with world leaders at their 2021 G7 Meeting. As the first meeting in a semi-declining-sort of-except in few spots-COVID (Maybe we are almost post Covid 🤷) lockdowns, the tone seems to be a little more somber and serious. Discussions include concepts such as coordination, economic recovery, democratic values and even more high level discussions on China (See China Tech and Manufacturing Push) and Russia🕵. You may want to read U.S. Department of State's posting HERE.  (I wish they had pay-per-view or something😭)

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell Conference April 28th, 2021

Keeping up with the news as the Federal Reserve sets monetary policy. A solid description of the speech "Powell’s high-stakes bet: More jobs but only mild inflation" and some risks. In addition, you can read about potential impact of inflation on the bond markets, "Bond Market’s Inflation Bulls Get Powell Go-Ahead to Double Down".

 It appears that the Fed expects inflation to be higher than 2% for part of the year but be anchored in average around 2%. They have tools to help cool the economy if needed. Watch the video for yourself.....

Escanaba Recreation Survey-Opportunities for Tourism and Local Satisfaction

Surveys help provide feedback to administrators to make decisions that better utilize community resources for a beneficial end. Escanaba just released its 5-Year Recreation Plan Survey. You can fill it out HERE. If you live in the area and frequent amenities/activities than your input would be helpful to gain insight. On the same point, if you don't live in the area this may not be the one you want to fill out.  To capture tourist sediments might require a different kind of survey designed and administered at some point during their trip. The city may be able to reorient a few of its current activities to improving the appeal to tourists (and target tourism markets) to raise visitor satisfaction and return/spending rates.

You can read a little study on how sports and recreation influence the branding and enjoyment of the area HERE (The general principles will apply across tourism industries).

Three ways of looking at this issue are...

1. 5-Year Recreation Plan Survey

2. Visitor/Tourism Survey (One could collect amount spend, time, activities enjoyed, missed opportunities, problems, etc....)

3. Reviewing International Tourism Trends/Info (Making sure we are understanding what digital nomads and others want from the market to create greater alignment. See Delta County Digital Nomads and Delta County Adventure Venture Capitalists

Having Fun Activities for Community and Visitors:

Having fun activities that improve health moves beyond a positive lifestyle because it also impacts the appeal of the area for family/employee retention and business development. No one wants to live in a town without fun things to do (i.e. Young people moving away and qualified professions unable to be attracted and retained). There are certain occupations and businesses the city may want to attract to restock its population/small business community and the type of recreational activities offered throughout the 4 seasons that influence the city's overall appeal. 

There are two things that might be helpful to consider. 

1. Publicly show all of the activities (whether by the recreation department or not) in a single place that victors and/or locals can easily find. Robust recreational programs will need an interested base to keep them active. People love to show up to activities that have people already engaged. If people are positive and happy to see new people many of these activities will grow and diversify local activities.

2. One might also might ensure activities include teens (keep them engaged in the community) as well as adults (exercise and socializing). Some of these activities could be as simple as walking groups, biking groups, canoeing (might need to partner with a business) or other fun activities like beach volley ball. It is also possible to utilize volunteers that run these activities (Kind of like Meetup that is super popular in cities.) thereby reducing the expenses of the department and expanding the recreational reach.

3. Align activities with branding activities and coordinate with community stakeholders (i.e. marina and hotels) to create a more seamless customer service experience that leads to people returning over and over (i.e. getting businesses to promote certain key branding activities and ensuring everyone is meeting the needs).