Fed Chair Jerome Powell Presents State of Labor Market at Economic Club of New York

Fed Chair Jerome Powell Presents State of Labor Market at Economic Club of New York. The unemployment rate in January added up and calculated would be 10% in January. Decline opportunities for high quartile is 4% and those at the bottom are at 17%. The labor market for high wage individuals improved while those at the bottom decline. This indicates that we are in two different economies that include the virtual and the real. Those that are in the real world economy are suffering because the pandemic closed them down but those in the virtual world are not suffering on the same level (This is why education reform is needed so that each of societal members can have opportunities in technological advancement and its future jobs.) 

There appears to be a direct connect between illness and the economy. When the pandemic is in full swing there is a decline in economic activity. Much of this has to do with closing business to maintain health and safety standard. This is why there is always a risk/reward line where too much closing can impact the economy and opening up too far can lead to increased pandemic illness and have a longer tail of economic slow down. Once this is over we will be able to look at different policies and see which appear to be most advantageous for the future (closing down or adjusting business/social practices). 

Inflation rate is expected to be 2 % and if it is below that there will likely to monetary stimulus. There are some long term projections that the U.S. will have a slower economy because of aging policies. What wasn't discussed, probably because it is difficult to formulate, is that the U.S. competitive position has declined and without some adjustments in how we approach the market and the need for innovative young businesses we are likely to decline more. The high tech savvy Millennials who have interest in business would be the generation that could turn this around. 

There was some discussion on "society wide" coordination needed to create sustainable maximum employment in the future. This has been needed during a time of hyper politics but the pandemic highlighted our truer competitive position and how policy changes are needed. 

Michigan Hate Crime Reform: Standing Up to Hate: Michigan Could Use Track and Solve Strategy

Groups that have difficulty self regulating are often the same groups that feel they are above the law. There is a sense of self-entitlement among group members but at the same time one gets the feeling that they are not truly independent to be their full better selves while still associated with group norms. Groups that engage in hate based behavior maintain central incorrect premises and are unable to allow for dissenting viewpoints. Michigan is struggling to deal with these issues as riots, threats, supremacy beliefs, and other hate oriented behaviors are not understood well and there isn't an effective plan put together. There are options to dealing with these issues and the state should consider a track and solve strategy.

Healthy Debate: 

The ability of groups to self-correct and avoid hate based behavior requires healthy internal debate and mechanics. When this self correcting mechanics through internal debate are absent, the loudest voice wins. That means members are no longer able to choose their own paths without punishment. Such groups pose a long term risk from their inability to engage in healthy debate.

Living by a False Narrative:

Groups often live by a social narrative that helps them define their existence and purpose. When the narrative is false or misguided the group begins to define themselves as different than, better than, and more entitled to certain benefits. When such narratives lower the rights of others or encourage hate actions against others they pose a risk to society.

Social Learning

It is difficult to change because their beliefs and behaviors are acceptable to the social networks they associate with. The group lacks healthy internal dialogue and has an inflated sense of importance leading to internal and external distortion. Many times such groups are led by a person(s) who projects his/her own internal dysfunctional to overly trusting group members. Without addressing these issues quickly the group helps other to engage in hate as well.

Why is Justice Important?

Michigan doesn't really know the extent of hate based behaviors and its ultimate impact on society. We can say from economic theory nearly half of the society's skills have not been fully maximized. We may talk about individual hate based events that were grotesque enough to warrant Federal attention but we don't understand the vast majority of cases due to incorrect coding and prosecution. What we can't say with any clarity is how did these groups form, what behaviors did they exhibit, and how many other victims (children and adult) are out there because we don't have appropriate measures (If we don't track we don't really know). This is why I advocate for accountability at various levels mental health, misdemeanor, and felony options leads to greater tracking and flexibility when dealing with issues. As effective options are explored and new research realized we can formalize them into a coherent response to hate. We now know that not dealing with these issues when they first rise on a local level means risking the stability of the republic down the road.

Michigan State Board of Education Meeting (02-09-20)

 The Michigan Board of Education had their most recent meeting. You can read more about what they do HERE. Michigan's Top 10 Strategic Plan HERE.  January meeting minutes HERE. Current minutes are not out yet. The Agenda has a lot of grants and stuff on it HERE. Some discussion on pandemic metrics and face-to-face instruction.

Circular Economy. Another step to ecological sustainability?

The circular economy is an important part of where we are going as a nation. The circular economy means that we take things from our environment and in some way should return them back to natural state (non toxic) through new technology and recycling. As we produce more products we will also find ways to break them down for other uses or back into the natural world in a sustainable way. You can read a description HERE.

One of the many reasons why businesses have not done this transformation is because they must 1. ) see the need; 2.), have the technology, 3.) have the incentive. 

In other words, they must see that this is something consumers want and that will be reflected in how consumers purchase products and the expectations of the market are. If people buy these products and if there is some type of preference for green products there will be a market (or artificial) need. 

At the same point, the technology must be available to make a reasonable transition. There is a need for green industry that can create affordable biodegradable products and other items that will make their way back into the environment in a safe manner. There appears to be lots of room for a green evolution and development. 

Finally, they need some type of incentive. Yes...more taxes might be one incentive but a more effective one is market driven where natural self-interest pushes a green evolution. This is why calculating and understand the total cost of products is helpful in determining true value for consumers (i.e. assessing a "clean up" cost/fund to cheaper international products that dump pollution kind of thinking). 

Another greater article entitled 'The Great Reinvention: A Business Case for the Circular Economy' offers some additional insight. 

2nd Day Trump Impeachment (Feb. 10, 2021)

Biden Meets with Business Leaders on Proposals (Feb. 9th, 2021)

 This was from yesterday but still very important to understand. Presidents often meet with business elites to help vet and create policy. Industry often has something to say about current policies and solutions to problems they have been struggling with for some time. Large companies should be one source out of a number of sources when dealing with complex issues like a budget or policy making (Trump and Biden meet with industry leaders).

While large corporations are convenient and willing to provide input it is often beneficial to ensure that you have multiple pathways to gaining information. For example, small business associations, law makers, scientific literature on prior implementation (even in other countries), etc...add up to create a triangulated point of view using multiple vantage points. 

Triangulation is excellent for improving validity as it takes into account independent sources of information that can be cross analyzed. In this case, going to business outside of lawmakers themselves provides for some meaningful input to choose between options. A few more and one could say they looked at it (i.e. any problem, policy, budget) from different industries and perspectives. 

Governor Whitmer Press Briefing Feb 9th, 2021 (Budgets and Vaccines)

Governor Whitmer discusses a number of things as they relate from budget to schools. A pretty good outline was provided on the key points by Click on Detroit. The Michigan COVID Recovery Plan and debate with legislature was mentioned. We will have to watch how it turns out.