President Trump Makes First In Person Appearance after COVID

There are a lot of people who wish the President a speedy recovery. Here is his first public appearance since falling ill. 

Helping the Justice System Adapt to Extremism, Mental Health, and Racism

We must tackle racism, bigotry and mental health in our society. The lack of self-awareness and deep heuristic divisions still impact the very fabric of our nation and in turn hampers our efforts to reposition our nation as the center of the global economy. To do so we must think about how our belief systems impact the decisions we make the way in which we view others. I have been writing some time about a very real example that mixes bigotry with mental health in a way that can be destructive to communities.

People have been protesting and this is only part of the discussion on what it means to have universal justice. For the most part police are very good people who want to help people in their communities. Unfortunately there are those who don't hold these values and often carry with them deep seated anger that sometimes comes out on the powerless, minorities and those that look like easy targets. (This isn't a new concept).

While many of our politicians are talking about chokeholds I don't think this is the big fish. Sure...we want to empower officers to use only that force necessary for their and the suspect's safety. The "bigger fish" is how we think and deal with those who have little respect for others and are willing to cross legal boundaries to obtain their psychological and personal urges. 

I'm not going into all the details but I believe the big changes are more about changing the processes so that officers that engage in criminal activity are not only uncovered but potential problems can be thwarted before they become bigger problems. Headline news is one thing but its the day-to-day lives of both the officers and the minority community (any everyone else's community) where real change must occur. 

1. Holding "bad apples" accountable. When officers and associates engage in criminal behavior they should be held accountable. When problems arise through complaints and eye witness then we must take action to help the officer help themselves. 

2. Environment of transparency. Culturally we should be more open with information. Officers should be open to each other and open to the public to build relationships through trust in shared perspectives. Data and reporting have value in evaluating performance from a macro level but the internal controls (and culture) are what is going to help in day-to-day events.

I have seen first hand how people can influence law enforcement for their own diabolical ends. Fortunately, in this case the officials figured out they were intentionally mislead and adjusted accordingly. The perpetrators in this case have not dealt with their bias and were willing to cause serious harm to reconfirm their limited view of the world. The vantage point they used was based in ignorance but it was their mental health issues that didn't allow them to self-regulate.

In the media we are discussing hate groups and the attempted abduction of a sitting governor. This can't happen unless we have an environment that is ripe for extremists from both sides of the political spectrum. In the case I'm familiar with, the perpetrators behavior  would not have happened if they were in a more healthy and open minded mindset. Social support for hate crimes highlighted deep seated dysfunctional friendships and inappropriate relationships. 

We must also consider how these actions might have been given a "blind eye" and not giving proper scrutiny. We haven't found a way to work with mental health and hate groups in a way that respects differences in opinions but holds racially motivated extremist behavior accountable.  Such extreme points of view are only a peak into a mindset that also justifies other behaviors to protect misguided self-perception.

The case likely went to the local prosecutor and then bounced somewhere else due to a lack of expertise and the complex moving parts of hate crimes, potential financial crimes, seriousness of the potential crimes of associates, invasion of privacy, etc... With open communication and dialogue a situation that would have been a net positive for everyone if some didn't became destructive. You can only offer but it is up to the perpetrators themselves to accept. 

Sometimes the perception of being in a power position leads to overconfidence recklessness through emotional projection. For example, the hate they see in me and my family (and any other target) is un dealt with self-hate from childhood trauma. You can tell through the way they communicate and the latent functions they use to construct their understanding of events.

I will continue to write about this and seek to focus on accuracy as much as possible. This is a situation we can learn from as a society and find better ways of tying the different flavors of American life into a single conception of American values. Mount Everest is still start of that process. I'm planning a trip in January to Colorado to polish up on my winter climbing skills (Assuming I can find a good guide). My goal is to raise more awareness for bigotry and racism in a pro-social activity through enhancing the need for universal justice and essential American values. 

Investing in Ciena Corp (CIEN)-Should we expect post-COVID national network development?

Buying and selling stocks is fundamental to the health of our economy and future prospects to of national development. Investment greases entrepreneurial activity and in turn empowers national innovation. The technology sector has been a growth industry and with the lessons of COVID we are likely to increased demand to handle new data demands. The goal is to look at an industry of companies to determine if they will have additional market relevance in the future as we adapt to new form of virtual and brick based businesses.

Out of the various telecommunication companies I took a closer look at the value of Ciena Corporation (CIEN) for investment purposes. CIEN is an American telecommunications networking equipment and software services supplier that is likely to be included in a broader trend of building data infrastructure capacity. With 6,000 employees they would be large enough to handle government and corporate contracts (Not to say there are not others that fit this profile but this is the one I saw👀).

The Lessons of COVID

Covid taught us things about the world and how economic development works in a high technology society. It was that push that forced us to change our paradigm of thinking and begin the process of transitioning much of daily activities and business affairs online. Even the government integrated online technology to process things like auto registration renewals versus forcing people to stand in line like some old soviet bread line. The courts weren't far behind when conducting "in person" affairs via Zoom type technologies 😬😱."

All of this online activity means lots and lots of data that demands stronger infrastructure!!!! (That isn't even talking about the potential improved economic development from increased economic transactions. That is where my theory comes into play. You can read about it HERE.).

Technology and telecommunications are here to stay! Yes there is going to be market fluctuations that will move up and down but I can't imagine us reverting back to the "ancient world" where our primitive pre-Internet ancestors got along with things like paper mail. ...and graphic pencils! Yikes! So I suspect there will be continued growth in technology and telecommunications sectors. Cleaner environment....improved efficiency........economic growth......create digital GDP........Pandemic............virtual classrooms.....etc......etc.....

Why are Markets Important?

Investment markets are important because they keep our economic engines running. Growth relies on whether there is a mechanism that quickly moves financial resources from slow moving safe sectors to highly interactive high growth sectors. Through the markets and the efficient use of money we were able to create modern finance. Online trading increased the rate and ease of access that increased trading activity and thus long-term global market growth spurts.

Any economic theory must have a way of understanding the investment markets and how those forces impact local development. In one form or another, all governments are impacted by the markets and what people are willing to pay for municipal bonds, real estate, equipment, etc... To explore the connection between investment and economic growth is a noble goal in and of itself if it helps highlight how to better draw investment to local communities (i.e. Delta County with its small but high potential industry clusters.).

The Context of CIEN?

What I like about CIEN is that despite a recent correction the company still maintains long term growth potential. As companies are forced to adapt to online models they will collectively increase the demand for high speed fiber cables and improved interconnectivitly that leads to enhanced data management. Increased transactions of information, finance, ideas, and resources, etc. leads to faster innovative development and improved production (i.e. Digital GDP).

Digital GDP will move to the forefront of economic discussion as increased information (i.e. big data) leads to more accurate decision making matched with increased resource transactions (i.e. financial/investment) that speeds up the Shumpterian ideas of Creative Destruction. Thus, CIEN exists as one company that fits within the market need of improved telecommunications that may be called upon to build new infrastructure networks.

Some of our that potential future growth will depend on our current national leaders and their ability to create a vision for a high tech society. As of date, we are still on that trajectory that increases the need for further nework investment and likely continue to see the need for telecommunications companies like CIEN in the future. You can learn more about the company and stock market. I use E-Trade but I'm sure there are plenty of other great sites out there for you to try and use for small investment purposes.

How to Evaluate a Stock?

As part of my theoretical work I'm trying to understand how my theory might function as a way to attract investors and in turn foster local economic development. Helping communities align to the global markets means that the theory should explain market behaviors (Even better if it could predict it!!). As workable explanations form we can eventually move to mathematical formulas that allow for explanation and model building. That takes a long time to do if your aren't a PhD mathematician.

I'm not picking a single stock as much as I'm overviewing a battery of fiber optic/network industries that are at the center of the transformation into a new forms of economic existence. I might also want to discover the important connected/associated industries that will be impacted by changes in spill over sectors. Multi-cluster networks function in collaboration and contribute to each other. If companies exist to fulfill market needs then we know that some sectors will have more interactivity as they seek to meet upcoming market opportunities.

How does that relate to CIEN? If you go back to something I wrote on Digital GDP HERE you will notice part of the idea is that the COVID virus forced us to change our economic fundamentals and push us further into a digital world. That in turn means more investment in virtual employment and networks such as those offered by CIEN. This is not a short term adjustment so there will be continued investment in telecommunications that can handle higher amounts of data. I believe this company, along with some others, fall within the general parameters of what I'm taking a closer look at.

What you also notice is that the stock took a significant dip from a high of $60.7 on September 2nd, 2020 to $46.46 on September 3rd, 2020. What you can also tell from the chart is that they took a significant dip in over one day as concerns over orders rose over decreased orders in the 3rd Quarter of 2020. A pretty good article in Barron's by Ben Levisohn specifically mentions CIEN's decline based on a poor outlook that also is somewhat reflective of other drops in technology stocks (Levisohn, 2020).

Technology stocks and government related infrastructure investments likely have some uncertainty while we are still adjusting to the COVID virus. People are jumpy and governments may not be sure how where the next step should be placed. Yet that doesn't take away from the general necessity of future telecommunications investments to keep the economy growing. While the budgets might not be allocated today they are likely to be allocated when we find strategies for a post-Covid world.

We may also find that based on the way in which budgets are allocated with the Pandemic jitters companies might be holding back on telecommunications investments. We could look at something called momentum when we want to make an investment decision. I'm not familiar with all of them so I will focus on just one. In this case, CIEN had a large dip in the beginning of September but from a momentum perspective it looks like it is poised to have a moderate improvements.

According to an article hosted by the UCLA Anderson School of Management momentum investing strategies look at 3-12 months prior to determine the likelihood of continued increase or decline (Petruno, 2018).  Thus the month dip might be more of a market correction and the only way to to truly tell is to look at growth over the year and over five hears. We will also need to look at some comparable industries that deal with fiber cable. 

It appears that the stock has been rising overall over the past year and bounced down just over past year. It started October 2nd, 2019 at $36.80 per share and ended October 1st, 2020 at $39.74.  Without the adjustment they would have done well. However, you can see a trajectory line of growth that from a momentum perspective we can expect to go upward again if the fundamentals haven't changed. 

Comparing Stocks to the Index:

One way to gauge a stock and its performance value is to look at how it compares to the performance of the index alone. Since CIEN is listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) I suspect that would be a good place to look. 

We can see that other than in the past few months CIEN has grown and improved significantly. the stock has grown and developed over time but that may not necessarily be much better than the market. 

Comparing it against the NYSE Composite we can't see that it necessarily outperformed the market. Sure we could calculate the exact amount and give some hard numbers but at the moment it seems like an average performer overall (Its just a quick opinion 😳). 

Comparison on the Market

The index would be a general comparison and gauge of sentiment but not necessarily helpful for seeing how the company functions with its competitors.  For that information we should include data on a comparison of companies that engage in the network fiber optic cable business. Two other comparable companies we may want to look at are Oclaro (NASDAQ:OCLR) and Acacia Communications (NASDAQ:ACIA). NASDAQ:VIAV, NASDAQ:AMKR; NASDAQ:SPWR and NASDAQ:SYNA. 

For the most part the industry seems like its still growing at a similar rate except; save one. You can see a pretty good comparison from Market Beat HERE.   Thus the market seems to be influencing them all similarly over a 6 month period. 

Where Are We At?

At the moment it looks like the industry based on a few markers doesn't necessarily appear to be ready for a boom based on what the market data is currently providing. We can look into the financial statists of each of the companies to determine their profitability and resources. This also isn't really the goal. The goal is to determine whether the industry will change based upon new heavy data market demand as it relates to current lines of innovative development. The chaos of COVID can lead to adaptation as an entire connected organism and that the next stage of development will likely need better networks. Let's wait to see what happens next.

Petruno, T. (October 13th, 2018).  After a quarter century of sprawling study, it’s time to narrow the focus and settle on an explanation.  UCLA Anderson School of Management. https://www.anderson.ucla.edu/faculty-and-research/anderson-review/momentum 

Levisohn, B. (September 4th, 2020). Tech Stocks Finally Got Crushed. Why the Stock Market Is on Shaky Ground. Barrons. Retrieved https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-stock-markets-august-gains-turned-to-september-pain-what-happens-next-51599266176

https://www.anderson.ucla.edu/faculty-and-research/anderson-review/momentum

This article is in no way investment advice nor am I qualified at the moment to give that advice. You own your choices and your stocks. 

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell speaks at the NABE Annual Meeting-Couple of Points

Federal Chairman Jerome Powell discusses COVID and its impact on the economy. He reviewed the Federal actions used to minimize impact of the pandemic. There were a couple of things that I pulled out of what he was saying so that I can create my own understanding of how the economy works and whether it will be stronger after the Pandemic. It is believed that we can excel after the Pandemic resides because of increased technological adaptation that leads to real Digital GDP growth.

We might also consider that new technology changes our economic fundamentals rooted in our experience with physical goods. Reality changes when the assumptions change! Thus, what we believed 7 years ago might not be what we believe today and what we believed when many economic theories started are not necessarily what we are going to believe in the future. Thus, economic policy and theory often develop together off of previous knowledge. New radical technologies like widespread use of the Internet and virtual work change the fundamental structures of how we interrelate since the beginning of our species. Our economic systems will change to reflect that new way of life and perceptual reality. 

A few things he said......The highlighted ones are the ones I took extra notice.

-Increased savings

-Goods consumption pre-pandemic levels

-Service consumption is low

-Business investment is on the rise

-Business formation is rebounding. 

-Unemployment is around 7% which is an improvement.

-The pandemic has increased the differences between the haves and have nots.

-If we lag too long we can run into a problem where normal recessionary issues take over. 

-There is a downgrade to long term expectations of society. 

As some readers might know I'm in the process of developing and creating a Theory of Transactional Clusters that hopes to better explain behavior in new economic systems as the information infrastructure builds on top of our previous physical infrastructure to create new possibilities for economic growth. Maybe some day it will adequately explain methods of connecting industries together (virtual and physical), applying pack investing, enhancing local clusters and pushing some industries to the center of the global supply chain.

Plot to Kidnap Governor-Purposeful or Destructive?

I'm watching this press release on the plan to kidnap Governor Whitmer. One must wonder what the intent of such an action is and whether or not its going to help anyone's agenda. We have to be careful as a society when we interact and debate with each other. We are in a state of transition and people are questioning their values. These times can be chaotic and it is up to our leaders to provide a path through the differences to find something that is workable. 

Let me say that violence isn't the answer to making American better. Our system is one of the best systems out there known to man. That doesn't mean there won't be a better system in the future but that at present this is the best system we know. It provides the best opportunity for drawing in multiple stakeholders to a single form of government. Division is not something we can afford right now. 

There will be an end to COVID. We have a need to think of what it means to be American in the modern world. There are certain core values and beliefs that apply to everyone regardless or our backgrounds. It would be helpful if we use language that is more inclusive and seeks to minimize tensions. We have a process we follow and being enthusiastic about the democratic process to have civil debate is important. 

Mike Pence and Kamala Harris Debate-Room for Shared Perspective?

The debates are heated to say the least. Kamala Harris and V.P. Mike Pence squared off to show their knowledge and skill to an American audience. Each talked about their particular vantage points and sought to support their arguments with key points. Some pushing against each other and personal attacks were present but it was not as heated as the presidential debates. Just because they don't agree there are opportunities for shared perspective.

Sometimes these debates can get heated and personal. This happens because people have a particular vantage point and often filter out the validity of an opposing party's perspective. We can say from the lessons of business we are more innovative if we focus on exploring aspects of both philosophies  to find those that should be singled out for greater exploration.

Innovative organizations, countries, or any other group are based in their ability to share perspectives, ponder what works from a practical level, and implement the best of those ideas. Even when there are two different philosophies at play the essential goal of strengthening our country. I believe both desire that but desire it in their own way.

Different perspectives on how to manage government doesn't mean we can't find some room for middle ground. For example, more or less government regulation of industry would be contentious to both parties. Yet what if we found a third way which included industry self-regulation and government oversight. 

I'm not really here to discuss at the moment why it would likely work. Briefly, it costs a lot to monitor regulations. Sometimes creating regulations while allowing industry to form a plan on how to achieve those objectives makes more sense on the financial and effectiveness front. Industries are often willing to self-regulate in partnership with government. 

We just need a better framework for making that happen to ensure innovative industries that are socially responsible to their consumers, nation and people. 

No matter what you read and hear on the news remember it is incumbent on you as an informed American citizen to understand the essential points and make up your own mind. 

Yin Yoga to Stretch the Difficult Spots

 Yoga is an activity that I engaged in for years. In the U.S. 20 years ago there were primarily a single type but over the years there have been many different types that have propped up. Some of them are fads and some of them are beneficial. Yin Yoga seems to be a pretty good new comer that allows for deeper stretching without all of the physical exertion. 

It is important for people to maintain their flexibility into old age. It is also important for sports enthusiasts to stretch those hard to reach places for higher performance. That is more likely to happen with longer hold stretches. In Yin Yoga you hold your positions for over 3-5 minutes with props that don't put pressure on your body. 

The advantages are significant. If you have a sore back from playing polo it can be hard to reach some of those places. Yin Yoga offers opportunities to slowly apply pressure on those spots until they have had time to stretch. Simple body pressure helps reach the stretch deeper. 

There is also the additional benefit of meditation and reflection. Because it is often conducted in dim light, music, groups, etc... you can't but help let your mind start to wonder. It takes on a meditative role. I'm not that familiar with the style but you may want to check out https://yinyoga.com/. For most of us it may be beneficial to use on a regular basis.