Successful Economic Forecasting with the Bayesian Method

Gupta and Kabundi (2010) started with an interesting question on which macroeconomic models are most likely to predict economic growth and success. Decision-makers that have tools are better able to make current decisions that are likely to foster greater growth in the future. The researcher used emerging markets of South Africa but these same models may apply to economic hubs and the factors that predict their success. 

Models are simply explanations that attempt to predict activities within the environment. Some models are more successful than others. Success is determined through a process of validity where multiple researchers over a period of time analyze the same phenomenon over and over in multiple ways to determine if the model makes sense. 

Common data points in measuring economic development include per capita growth rate, consumer price index (CPI), inflation, the money market rate, and the growth rate of nominal effective exchange rates. These data points often work their way into various models in an effort to create and develop some predictability. 

Bayesian VAR (BVARs) are based upon the Bayesian Method which is a subjective probability analysis used in a number of different fields. It is a rational decision making regression analysis for updating beliefs. In economics, the methods use monthly, yearly and other time based measurements to help determine the vector and trajectory of actions. It provides a method of blending new information with prior beliefs. 

BVAR models incorporate a greater amount of data than a number of other common models. The authors found that the BVARs have more predictability and would be beneficial for evaluating economic growth. Administrators that consider these models may find an additional tool for understanding and managing economic hubs. 

Gupta, R. & Kabundi, A. (2010). Forecasting macroeconomic variables in small open economy: a comparison between small-and large-scale models. Journal of Forecasting, 29 (2).

Happy Monday

Buy that Discount Christmas Tree Soon!

If you are stuck without a Christmas tree at the last minute, you have a few options left that will save you money. Perhaps you were a little lazy or simply waited for your next pay check.  First, you must decide if you want a real or artificial tree.  If you do not want the hassle of vacuuming constantly and finding some place to dispose of your tree when the holidays are over, you may want to opt for an artificial one.

Searching online you could look online you may find Kmart’s 6 foot tree for $15 (no lights) or Wal-Mart 9 foot for $30 (with lights). Unfortunately, most of these deals are no longer available as they were pre-Cyber Monday offers. Home Depot still has some great trees for around $100+ with or without lights. A few are snow-covered designs.

The price usually matches the quality.  The cheaper the tree the more likely it is going to look sparse. Some of the stores have sales that are 40% off as most of their customers have already bought their tree for the season. In this particular case, I obtained the floor display tree for $80 that was originally priced at $160 without lights. This one came with the lights. The garland was under $3 at Wal-Mart and I only needed two packs.  The total price of a decorated tree with garland was under $100 (including tax).

One of the reasons why you may find the best deals on trees now is that large companies often gear their major product pushes during heavy purchasing behavior. They keep statistics on consumer behavior. As the majority of customers buy their trees around Thanksgiving one often finds the best deals a week or so after when companies can no longer maximize their profits. The same savings can occur in off season clothing, last year model products, and overstock.

Happy Hunting! 

Preparing College Graduates for Job Interviews

One of the responsibilities of higher education is to prepare students for the job market. This preparation is a long process of learning competitive skills to successfully work within an organization. Sometimes, we forget that in order to have students use their new developed skills they will need to land a job. Dr. Lauren Mackenzie (2009) shares some of her assignment experiences in helping students interview better and secure the employment they desire. 

She believes that there are three concepts which are helpful to students that include viewing interviews as conversations, nexting, and thin slicing.  As you may not be familiar with these terms nexting is a flow of information, and thin slicing is understanding the non-verbal cues. Together these three concepts help in creating higher levels of interview preparedness. 

All interviews are conversations. The employer is trying to gain as much information about you while you are trying to gauge them. It is a process of opening of information and ensuring that each as an accurate perspective. Through this conversation, job seekers want to ensure that they are balancing honesty with their best attributes to both obtain the position but also ensure that it is the right match for them. 

Nexting entails working within the flow of information and furthering the information for display. As someone asks you a question, expand the information in a positive way and then try and move the conversation in a positive direction. Those who do well at nexting also are able to ensure the interview conversation maintains the best flow to highlight their abilities while leaving the interviewer a positive impression.

Thin slicing entails a concept of understand others behaviors through their non-verbal cues. People have been accurate in understanding others behaviors through a few brief moments of interaction. This is a thin slice of who they are at that particular moment. It does not represent the total person but it gives an intuitive insight into their behaviors and perceptions. If a person gets good at understanding others, they can steer their conversation in a way that encourages receptivity.

Graduates should learn the job based skills as well as the verbal skills to be successful on the market. This can be taught through class by practicing writing a resume, cover page, common interview question responses, and filling out peer evaluation forms. Through the process of thought formalization and feedback, they can better gauge their preparation.

Recent graduates may be interested in some of the job and information sites below:

http://www.quintcareers.com/

http://www.salary.com/

http://www.jobhuntersbible.com/

http://www.jobhunt.com/

http://www.overseasjobs.com/

Mackenzie, L. (2009). Connecting communication theory to interviewing practice: strategies for instruction and evaluation. Currents in Teaching & Learning, 2 (1).

 

Carl Jung, The Self, and Archetypes

Stages of Life by Carl Jung delve into the nature of human existence. We are led by our archetypes that are designed to develop our personality and behavior.  They are created to equip us with skills in our efforts for survival based within our ancient hunter-gatherer societies. These include parenting, exploring, distinguishing friend from foe, language, values, rule adherence, reproduction, economic contribution, ceremony and responsibility. The archetype is a psychological nucleus that coordinates the workings of our lives. 

The self is an archetype made up of the ego, personal unconscious, and the collective unconscious. The self is the unification of the conscious and the unconscious and the integration of personality factors.  It is a concept of wholeness. The process of differentiation through trials and tribulations occurs over the first half of someone’s lifetime while later stages are often marked by greater wholeness. 

When Jung speaks of the self, he thinks of it in terms of the organizing genius behind personality. It seeks to create a balance between different dichotomies and generate full expression. As the self develops, it becomes more complex in its approaches as well as more capable of environmental mastery.

The ego, personal unconscious and collective unconscious are different levels of our uniqueness.  The ego can be seen as our individual way of thinking, the personal unconscious as our common experiences through an individual lens, and the collective unconscious as the common experiences of humanity. Each of these makes up the entire person and their approaches to life. 

There are different general approaches to life that include a whole host of types ranging from the hero to the caregiver and all the way over to the sage. Each of these types influences how we search for identity within our lives. The sage seeks truth while the hero seeks to protect. The ruler wants power while the orphan seeks connection to others.  Some theorists have listed 12 different types. 

Jung himself appears to only have designated four major archetypes called the self, the shadow, the anima or animus, and the persona. He did not limit the amount that actually exists. The self is the unification of the unconscious and conscious, the shadow is the secret self we can project on others, the anima/animus is the opposite sex understanding of selves, and the persona (the mask) that we allow others to see.  Each of these combined are used at various times in our lives to create a unique blend for each individual.

It is important to remember that models are only possible explanations of what actually occurs in life. As time moves on people come to confirm or dis-confirm these explanations.  Personally, I think of archetypes as societal examples that our personalities latch onto in order to define ourselves. As we begin to adopt a personality (i.e. archetype) we begin to mimic its persona in just the same way as we mimic our parents in childhood. We are not beholden to the archetype but the creator of the archetype through the examples we incorporate.

Other Reading:

About Psychology

Terra Psyche

Dr. Sheedy

Sesame Institute

Soul Craft

Two of the Most Popular Words in Merriam-Webster's Dictionary Are "Science" and "Cognitive"

What is in a word? According to Merriam-Webster Dictionary, the most search word is “Science” this month. With an increase of over 175% from last year, people are interested in pondering its meaning and definition.  Science is defined as “knowledge about or study of the natural world based on facts learned through experiments and observation." 

Science and life go hand in hand. Famous figures like Spinoza, Einstein, Immanuel Kant, Ibn Sina and many others developed the concept of science over thousands of years.  Through the generations, it moved from philosophy into the more concrete concepts offered by the scientific method. Generally, it is seen as a process of observation and manipulation that attempts to draw facts from the environment. 

The second most exciting word is “cognitive”.  They seem to have something to do with each other. Cognitive can be defined as, “based on or capable of being reduced to empirical factual knowledge.” Science requires the cognitive abilities to pull facts out of the environment.  You cannot have science without a level of cognition. 

Of course, science and cognition are philosophical terms. Philosophy helps us understand the different states of existence within the world. Where Freud delved into our suppressed facts Immanuel Kant looked more at how we receive those facts. If that is not exciting enough, we could bounce all the way over to untying the world knot or Jung’s shadow personality. 

There may be some good reasons why these words are so popular.  Educational reports, Kepler Space station discoveries of new worlds, global climate change, brain injury in athletes and even politics. People are interested in the new discoveries that science is increasingly offering at unprecedented rates. The information is there but the definitions are missing. 

Merriam-Webster Dictionary

Other Reading:

LA Times

Clinton Herald

American Live Wire