U.S. consumers spend $598 billion in retail sales with a $90 billion return rate of products. This is the largest holiday shopping period since the recession. It is seen as a good sign for the economy for the year because a large percentage of the economy is based on retail sales and if the stores start out strong they can balance their budgets and reinvest in new lines for next year. It also shows that people have disposable incomes and are willing to buy.
Tuesday, December 26, 2017
Monday, December 25, 2017
More Skilled Workers Needed in Michigan
Michigan Still has a shortage of workers. While many times we think that higher education leads to high pay that is all relative on what degree you obtain. Not all people are cut out for college or haven't learned the necessary skills to continue to work through a college degree. There are alternatives for such people that include skilled trades in anything from roofing to dental assistants all the way over to IT certificates.
See the list below and their projected growth rates.
https://www.michigan.gov/documents/careers/MIhotjobs_353112_7.pdf
See the list below and their projected growth rates.
https://www.michigan.gov/documents/careers/MIhotjobs_353112_7.pdf
Coyote or Wolf in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan
However, we did come across the remnants of a recent wolf or coyote attack on deer. Just not sure where it came from or what type of animal? Nearly complete eaten carcass, including the bones, full grown deer and lots of tracks and fuss in the snow. So I took a better look at the tracks to determine the time and potential type of attack.
-The bones were eaten-Another sign it was coyote
-About 5-6 animals were involved in the attack-Could be either but lends more to wolf unless it is a large prey.
-Full-grown deer: Lends toward wolves.
-Attack was over the past 24 hours as we had some snow which would have covered those tracks.
It was likely a coyote attack while wolves are in the area they seem to have more fear of people and this was off of a walking trail that has been used at least a couple of times after the last snow fall a day or so earlier. The size of the prints are not huge so it was a smaller animal that seemed to have moved as a pack. I also noticed that the animals came in from different angles in a well coordinated prey hunt.
The Upper Peninsula of Michigan has some of the best wildlife in the country. Deer, bear, black panther, wolves, coyote, fox, rabbits and a whole host of other stuff lives abundantly in the area. Never had an issue with any of them and on my hunts I have only come across a few unless I was looking for them. There is a growing eco tourism industry.
Saturday, December 23, 2017
How to Detect When People Lie?
Lie detection is a useful skill that can be used in everything from employee recruitment to personal relationships. Most of us have told lies at one time or another. Whether it is a white lie or to gain some advantage we as a human species are prone to such behaviors. Yet that doesn't mean we all engage in them. Most people simply don't because they have developed a strong confidence in themselves and their ability to get what they want without deception. However, lie detection can help protect us against those who are not so honest with their intentions.
Let us say you are conducting an interview and someone is lying about their skills, abilities, and background. If you hire this person you may find that you need to fire them in the future if they don't perform according to expectations. While most of us put forward a "good foot" most of us would not consider lying as an appropriate method for selected.
Situational Context and Logic:
Situational context and understanding is likely the key determinant of lie. Does the information make sense in the circumstances in which they exist? Is what they are saying logically consistent? In other words, "does it really make sense and is it plausible?"
Much of that depends on the person's lying abilities. If the person is a practiced liar they may think through all the possible scenarios and find that which is most make sense. However, they will often leave gaps in their explanations and have less verifiable details (Park, Levin, et. al, 2002).
The Word Test:
While it is not a perfect measure the use of more "um" in speech can be an indication that a person is telling the truth (Arciuli, Mallard & Villar, 2010). Contrary to popular opinion "um" doesn't mean that a person is stressing to find an answer. They may simply be thinking about details or even be trying to find their own truth to create an accurate answer.
The Cognitive Load Test:
When people are stressed and lying their immediate reactions are often to default quickly to the truth but only when there is no opportunity to think through plausible explanations. Let us say that they are currently working on a crisis and the speed of their thinking and activities will likely default in actions that are based on their understanding of events. In other words, they will act in their own best interest to solve problems based on their deeper understanding of events. Lies usually don't make their way into the equation until the crisis is over.
Self Interest and Self-Promotion:
People often lie to hide negative things about themselves, their intentions, or to promote themselves. Healthy people don't need to do this because they have internal beliefs that being a highly developed individual leads to benefits in the world. They rely on their own abilities and character. When trying to determine a lie think about that advantages and disadvantages a person receives from the information they are offering (Underwood, Kerlin & Farrington-Flint, 2011).
Another way to think of this is through their patterns of thought. Thinking is a habit. If a person is always talking about money or always talking about their abilities you can come to the conclusion that this is important to them. If what they say indicates that they say doesn't seem to match a quality value system you can be more sure through active listening that may be willing to deceive to obtain a goal.
Time is the Determinant of Lying:
Discovering patterns takes time. When you wait to make a final judgement you will eventually gain more information. Let them talk, let them explain things, and let them feel a false sense of security. You don't need to hand over valuable things or given them anything you don't want to. Just ask questions, be aware when you spend time with people, and let time determine the end result.
Some people are Better Lie Detectors:
People who are extroverts and open to experience, according to to the Big Five personality factors are able to both tell lies and detect lies (Elaad & Reizer, 2015). In the same study it was found that those who were conscientious also didn't lie as much and were not very good at detecting lies. Your personality can determine whether or not you are both a good liar and a lie detector.
Nahari, G., Vrij, A. & Fisher, R. (2014). Exploiting liars' verbal strategies by examining the verifiability of details. Legal and Criminological Psychology, 19 (2).
Park, H., et. al. (2002). How people really detect lies. Communication Monographs, 69 (2).
Reinhard, M., et. al. (2014). Detecting lies and truths in social work: how suspicion level and familiarity affect detection accuracy. British Journal of Social Work, 44 (2).
Reizer, A. (2015). Personality correlates of the self-assessed abilities to tell and detect lies, tell truths and believe others. Journal of Individual Differences, 36, (3).
Underwood, J., Kerlin, L. & Farrington-Flint, L. (2011). The lies we tell and what they say about us: Using behavioural characteristics to explain Facebook activity. Computers in Human Behavior, 27 (5).
Let us say you are conducting an interview and someone is lying about their skills, abilities, and background. If you hire this person you may find that you need to fire them in the future if they don't perform according to expectations. While most of us put forward a "good foot" most of us would not consider lying as an appropriate method for selected.
Situational Context and Logic:
Situational context and understanding is likely the key determinant of lie. Does the information make sense in the circumstances in which they exist? Is what they are saying logically consistent? In other words, "does it really make sense and is it plausible?"
Much of that depends on the person's lying abilities. If the person is a practiced liar they may think through all the possible scenarios and find that which is most make sense. However, they will often leave gaps in their explanations and have less verifiable details (Park, Levin, et. al, 2002).
The Word Test:
While it is not a perfect measure the use of more "um" in speech can be an indication that a person is telling the truth (Arciuli, Mallard & Villar, 2010). Contrary to popular opinion "um" doesn't mean that a person is stressing to find an answer. They may simply be thinking about details or even be trying to find their own truth to create an accurate answer.
The Cognitive Load Test:
When people are stressed and lying their immediate reactions are often to default quickly to the truth but only when there is no opportunity to think through plausible explanations. Let us say that they are currently working on a crisis and the speed of their thinking and activities will likely default in actions that are based on their understanding of events. In other words, they will act in their own best interest to solve problems based on their deeper understanding of events. Lies usually don't make their way into the equation until the crisis is over.
Self Interest and Self-Promotion:
People often lie to hide negative things about themselves, their intentions, or to promote themselves. Healthy people don't need to do this because they have internal beliefs that being a highly developed individual leads to benefits in the world. They rely on their own abilities and character. When trying to determine a lie think about that advantages and disadvantages a person receives from the information they are offering (Underwood, Kerlin & Farrington-Flint, 2011).
Another way to think of this is through their patterns of thought. Thinking is a habit. If a person is always talking about money or always talking about their abilities you can come to the conclusion that this is important to them. If what they say indicates that they say doesn't seem to match a quality value system you can be more sure through active listening that may be willing to deceive to obtain a goal.
Time is the Determinant of Lying:
Discovering patterns takes time. When you wait to make a final judgement you will eventually gain more information. Let them talk, let them explain things, and let them feel a false sense of security. You don't need to hand over valuable things or given them anything you don't want to. Just ask questions, be aware when you spend time with people, and let time determine the end result.
Some people are Better Lie Detectors:
People who are extroverts and open to experience, according to to the Big Five personality factors are able to both tell lies and detect lies (Elaad & Reizer, 2015). In the same study it was found that those who were conscientious also didn't lie as much and were not very good at detecting lies. Your personality can determine whether or not you are both a good liar and a lie detector.
Nahari, G., Vrij, A. & Fisher, R. (2014). Exploiting liars' verbal strategies by examining the verifiability of details. Legal and Criminological Psychology, 19 (2).
Park, H., et. al. (2002). How people really detect lies. Communication Monographs, 69 (2).
Reinhard, M., et. al. (2014). Detecting lies and truths in social work: how suspicion level and familiarity affect detection accuracy. British Journal of Social Work, 44 (2).
Reizer, A. (2015). Personality correlates of the self-assessed abilities to tell and detect lies, tell truths and believe others. Journal of Individual Differences, 36, (3).
Friday, December 22, 2017
Quality Brands of Local Businesses Increase Foreign Direct Investment
Areas known for quality are rewarded in the global market by future investment. Consumers responded to location of origin perceptions positively with increased purchases that led to increased economic growth in these areas. A study of 30 source and 34 host countries between 2005 and 2006 found that an increase of 27% in foreign direct investment occurred as a result of a 1% increase in quality perception of intangibles (Kalamova & Konrad, 2010).
If governments want to improve their economic position by attracting new investments into the area they will need to move beyond thinking exclusively about price and into the perceptional quality of the products produced in their area and how that quality perception improves economies. Locations that are known for high quality products are rewarded through future investments that leads to additional tax revenue, jobs and other benefits as a result of an expanding local economy.
The knowledge-capital model helps understand that local production is often based in the skills that develop around industries. According to the study, the most relevant factors that encourage investment are perceptions of products, social and economic environments and culture. As areas became known positively for such attributes they improved their sales prospects.
One of the reasons why this happens is that consumers use heuristics when making decisions about whether or not to purchase particular products. Some locations are considered high quality producers while others are not and this can hamper them. Selection rates are likely to increase as consumers weigh and balance price and quality.
For business managers this makes quality perceptions an important part of the business plan. While quality and price should improve based on having the quality producers within the same area there is are additional benefits for actively promoting quality outputs.
Branding also leads to future investment as potential investors ponder where and how to invest within certain high growth markets that offer the highest potential for investment return. They will naturally select regions that have existing businesses successfully competing within the market because risks are lower. Improved investment portfolios come with the added advantage of economic growth and prosperity within the region. This investment also leads to robust innovation, production and cluster development.
Kalamova, M.& Konrad, K. (2010) National brands and foreign direct investment. Kyklos, 63 (3).
If governments want to improve their economic position by attracting new investments into the area they will need to move beyond thinking exclusively about price and into the perceptional quality of the products produced in their area and how that quality perception improves economies. Locations that are known for high quality products are rewarded through future investments that leads to additional tax revenue, jobs and other benefits as a result of an expanding local economy.
The knowledge-capital model helps understand that local production is often based in the skills that develop around industries. According to the study, the most relevant factors that encourage investment are perceptions of products, social and economic environments and culture. As areas became known positively for such attributes they improved their sales prospects.
One of the reasons why this happens is that consumers use heuristics when making decisions about whether or not to purchase particular products. Some locations are considered high quality producers while others are not and this can hamper them. Selection rates are likely to increase as consumers weigh and balance price and quality.
For business managers this makes quality perceptions an important part of the business plan. While quality and price should improve based on having the quality producers within the same area there is are additional benefits for actively promoting quality outputs.
Branding also leads to future investment as potential investors ponder where and how to invest within certain high growth markets that offer the highest potential for investment return. They will naturally select regions that have existing businesses successfully competing within the market because risks are lower. Improved investment portfolios come with the added advantage of economic growth and prosperity within the region. This investment also leads to robust innovation, production and cluster development.
Kalamova, M.& Konrad, K. (2010) National brands and foreign direct investment. Kyklos, 63 (3).
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