(Sorry I have to put a plug in about energy. I'm for green development and creation of a more robust energy grid that is safer and can use multiple forms of energy; whether green or not. With the events as they relate to cut oil production we should be able to fill declines in supply with other sources. Even better if its only temporary. Thus, oil, green, nuclear, dispersed solar, etc. can all be helpful when they are needed but we should move relatively quickly to green as much as possible. Likewise, redundancy within the energy system is also helpful with local and regional sources of energy.)
You will want to read this article....Michigan is top in the nation for ad spending in state legislature racesThe blog discusses current affairs and development of national economic and social health through unique idea generation. Consider the blog a type of thought experiment where ideas are generated to be pondered but should never be considered definitive as a final conclusion. It is just a pathway to understanding and one may equally reject as accept ideas as theoretical dribble. New perspectives, new opportunities, for a new generation. “The price of freedom is eternal vigilance.”—Thomas Jefferson
Sunday, October 16, 2022
Michigan Is Top State for Political Ad Spending: Money Doesn't Buy Character!!
Saturday, October 15, 2022
Standing for Democracy and Standing Against Hometown Hate: Law, Democracy and Freedom!
Democracy was built from the many sacrifices given as a gift by one generation to the next spanning all the way back to the moment the first pilgrims cautiously stepped off of the boat into a new land with half starved outstretched hands. They were driven by their desire to practice their religion freely without persecution and sailed to the furthest corner of earth (1620)! Freedom of religion was so important to our national founding that we built one of the world's largest free nations from shared understandings of the rights endowed to all man (mankind).
Let us fast forward a four hundred years to modern times (2022) where we are now very far removed from the initial struggles of surviving in the wilderness with nothing more than hope for a brighter future (Maybe we could have added a hatchet as a necessary tool back then.). While it seems so long ago the problems of the past are fused into our national heartbeat as they were codified in the Constitution as central to our moral conscious and cultural assumptions.
In today's world, we have much more complex social structures but are still plagued by the same simple forces our founders faced as it relates to freedom and suppression. Americans are those that believe in that freedom, take oaths to protect it and act to uphold those essential freedoms against all odds (This American definition is something we should remember. Who is an American by a deeper value system and those who claim "American" simply by superficial attributes and false/partial symbolism.).
Our nation is based on our deep fundamental human urges rooted into our very biological existence and the symbolism we use to create value systems that draws us into indivisible collective people with liberty and justice for all. Our democracy is a projection of our inner biological urges to exist and strive on our own merits (i.e. life, liberty and pursuit of happiness). We built different institutions to help in administering these freedoms for the benefit of our nation and peoples. The very laws created were designed to protect those central values through official uses of power.
Thus law is an extension of collective shared values and in an ideal world they would be applied with that in mind. At least in theory! (Its philosophical in nature but most societies are human projections and most societies share similarities and thus root back to some basic human needs. Countries shift and change because of alignment or misalignment with those needs. Most of the time, it is a natural process from generation to generation as older ideas that solved older problems fade away and are replaced by new movements with new ideas from younger people focused on newer problems. Many of these problems are patterned and come back throughout a nation's life course and if it breaks a cycle the nation runs risks of collapse or becoming something else because that value system is no longer one of the central anchors of shared consciousness.)
It is important to remember that how freedom and democracy functions in our hometowns in realized application of our inner national values. Our observed behaviors on a local level give an indication to the sickness or health of our democracy. Lived experience and higher principle should be in alignment for maximum realized American spirit. If there is a disconnect between what we say during public facing political-academic discussions versus how Americans/"Americans" (depending on how you define American) experience freedom on a daily private basis we have value dissonance that must be brought into harmony (Its important to walk the talk on freedom and democracy).
A free pass for hate is not really free! It only highlights the differences between what we talk about on top of the organization but may not be optimally functioning on a local/granular level where it impacts real people (Theory and applied. Theory takes educational abstraction and applied takes hands on experience. This is also why I advocate for circulation of people to the highest social and financial in a capitalistic society to ensure proper ventilation of the top. The best and brightest should be able to rise to fulfill that role through pushing society to change. That won't happen if nepotism is the path that gets people opportunities ) The more different and "outsider" one appears to those doing the "judging" (i.e. throwing stones), the more the person appears as less worthy of rights (Some will believe in our principles and some just say what is socially expected of them. Have you watched politics? I suspect most are trying to do the right thing but not everyone is going to have high standards.).
What I'm saying here is a leading theory of explanation as to what appears to be the downing of three local institutions associated with exploitable of hate and bigotry. I suspect there is alternate theories from those who started the problem but it would be hard to rule out the wider motivations. Yet I would think that the aggression alone cannot be justified because someone was forced to install a boundary when kids were intentionally involved/harmed or one having the "wrong color" kids and certainly doesn't provide justification for lack of fair treatment and possible wink and nod to ethnic intimidation (I believe there is an important point to be made. Race, religion and personal gain doesn't justify serious aggression, intimidation or violence unless you have devalued the lives of the targets and find something exploitable such as race and religion to rally other. Keep in mind that many members of this group were very concerned about where my kids came from and have a history of treating others as "better than thou". They came to me and told me the reason why my family was being targeted were because we were Muslim {They know nothing about religion and don't even practice religion themselves}. They also did this with undercover officers standing near {First let me say that these officers are actually awesome officers but they were unaware the the manipulative depth others will go for gain. I understood what was happening in real time and am generally not inclined to quickly react.} It still makes me scratch my head. As experienced as I am in understanding hate I cannot say I have ever seen such quickness in moving a large amount of people from heuristic/quick judgement to acting on the behalf of hate. I spent time with Muslims, Jews, Blacks, and lots of others and I never seen such entitlement and lack of mental independence. I'm not sure one of them can say me and my kids ever did anything to them but someone commands them and they get aggressive. 🤷 Its Steven King creepy! )
Accountability doesn't necessarily mean jail time but there must be opportunities for improvement. While the goal of this group was in many ways to cause as much harm as possible they dipped into physical intimidation and corruption (Group aggression, calling names, picking fights, official guidance), lost economic opportunities (Discrimination by a local university who thought I was qualified for an adjunct job, not being able to receive certain local services, etc.), defamation of character (trying to damage and devalue the lives of the subject to encourage others to attack them), damaging/targeting/manipulating kids (Intentionally involving, targeting with undercover stops, and lying to kids), police targeting (parking outside of home, following home, illegal investigation), embezzlement/fraud (the financial incentives of launching hate) corruption (Free pass for hate groups) and public mocking.
None of that really matters if we don't really care about the integrity and health of our democracy and/or we made a decision that democracy is only for certain people (Their behaviors were shocking and hinted at some extremism among their members). Someone made a judgement call that these people over here have more rights to show aggression to minorities (We are all actual minorities and that will become more apparent. I'm using the term minority because people understand what it means.) than those people over there simply by superficial and what appears to be inherently biased criteria. Perhaps we feel that such democracies are for some and not for others. My suggestion since the beginning hasn't changed because it seems very reasonable to me, keeps people out of jail (They own it they go but I tried my best to derail them from their aggressive choices. Personally, I would like them to take the right steps and improve themselves and get the help they need) and corrects the wrong while putting future behaviors on notice.
It is important to keep in mind that a free pass can embolden such hate to rear its head because the messages are mixed (i.e. if you are this low value based on racial and religious reasons hate is given a free pass, protected, and swept under the carpet creating context for future cleansing.). Many of these behaviors seemed to have been learned during prior immunities and social bullying incidents (If you would have saw the coordination and smirks on their face you would have understood how "normalized" these behaviors have become.). Even if they no longer focus on these particular topics the learning lesson is that this group has the capacity to thwart that which is sacred in our country and can do so again if they desire because the local system is either frightened or unable to uphold the Constitution (Maybe there is a lot more I don't understand and I'm open to that possibility. What I do understand is is not worthy of a free pass and is grotesque and shameful in nature.). That is a longer term existential risk not only to the community but anyone not seen as a "local". I suspect the risks go up exponentially as superficial differences rises. It begins to look like a closed system skewed to the benefit internal members (Very very narrow definition of stakeholders. The one minority that could have done a lot of good for the community was intentionally rejected for qualified positions and ostracized for the bad behaviors of others. It is what it is! I believe some of those opportunities will continue forward but I would give a warning to local officials who feel that this group can't do any wrong and allow them to target any newcomers, minorities, investors, business owners, etc.. They showed they didn't need much of an excuse. No one can tell the future but open societies with lots of potential can be a draw with the right investment sparks. That comes through universalization and inclusion. ).
Here are a few ideas that I think would help, keep peoples records clear if possible, and make it difficult to repeat. It restores law and order around key national values. (Notice they are relatively unchanged since a few years ago when it started because the factors and roots of the problem haven't changed. The more we justify inappropriate behaviors with logical chains {Actually there is always a root misassumption in hate but its hard to show that to people unless you unpack all their ideas and false logic) that default back to the protection of certain groups, the more we water down our values)
1. Initial perpetrators have mental health screaming and follow up. Helps to ensure the hate doesn't have a deeper psychological problem and ensures they are no longer a risk to the community or targets.
2.) Investigate community complaints. Multiple community complaints against the same group members that have not been investigating. Some of which are serious and show patterns.
3.) Checks and balances to ensure close association and friendship with such groups doesn't deform local just through hate based rhetoric and misperception of American values.
4.) The college that is rejecting candidates based on social, racial, and religious concerns should have a review of their hiring practices, investigation the incident and put in place new policies. (Anyone need any emails to the HR department and President of the University making them aware of the incident let me know. If you have a legit reason I will share them. Its not about embarrassing people but fixing a broken system.)
5. Change the culture of the sporting community that has come to support and encourage aggression, bullying and hate. That may need to start in the elementary levels and ensure these parents/coaches are not teaching inappropriate sporting values.
6. Training and development for officers that were not involved but were in a place to stand up and report inappropriate behavior of other officers in other departments (That should also include training on how to report hate crimes to FBI)
7.) An audit of the incentives of hate. Sometimes there are incentives beyond just race and religion. There is financial issues and mental health issues.
Do I believe people will do the right thing? Yes and no. The people in the community have been supportive and showing they don't stand with hate. They also know the antics of this group and their leadership but have social connections to them that make it difficult to say "no" like I did to protect my children. What I can say is that the initial group members are unlikely to see themselves as doing any wrong (the targets are just so worthy of hate!). Furthermore, there are multiple systems at play but at the end of the day the local system must be brought in alignment with national/international law.
Considering that minorities often get the short end of the justice stick I would say my chance of having the right thing come out that would lead to a win-win situation is somewhere around 58% Yes to 42% No. That is the struggle Americans face every day passing the torch from one generation to the next. I have more responsibilities to my community and country than I do to any good old boy network no matter what their are racial, religious or political leanings. It would be easier and safer to say nothing like many may have done before. Just saying! 💁Patriotism is not always rewarded in a free society but it is necessary to keep the system thriving.
Me my plans are to be positive, polite, engaging, help my community, open to reconciliation and be visible and go where I want to go. I have no problem walking into the center of this group and saying "Hi" and being open to a change of heart. What I will not do is sugar coat what happened in favor of silence. Forgiveness is great but as long as the risk is maintained I will not forget. I think that is the right thing to do. Problem resolution, empathy and iron in silk enforcement while not ignoring this groups potential (The sad thing is that most people in the group are really good people but they have toxic members that can intentionally manipulate and use them as flying monkeys. How do we help people, recognize he wrong, and fix it for the future without ruining peoples futures? Not so easy to do but I think what I have here is a good start for solving problems in our American family.)
Let us see what doors open and what doors close.
Friday, October 14, 2022
IMF Fears Global Economic Slow Down (October 14th, 2022)
IMF, 2022 |
Monetary stability and proper fiscal policy seem to be part of the solutions. It is expected nations will pull back on many fiscal supports and actively engage in fighting inflation but such contractions might taint ill the global economy. Economic shocks can be even a bigger issue for the poor and vulnerable that don't have access to financial cushions.
You may also want to read a solid analysis in the World Economic Forum Recession warning from the IMF: What you need to know about the global economy this week
Tuesday, October 11, 2022
'Made in America' Gets Manufacturing Legs With Employment Growth
One key component to advanced societies are the creative skill of workers. An industry hiring more workers at higher wages, when compared to alternative employment, is a win for Made in America, for worker prosperity, and for governments that will benefit from that tax revenue. The advanced society should find a path to perpetual sustainable development where economic opportunities renew.
On a macro scale when we want to innovate and invent as a people new products/serviced in the U.S. through our creative capital (i.e. STEM), encourage strong international investment mechanisms in that growth (i.e. pack investing, clusters, tax policy), to produce the highest market value products (i.e. emerging products, technology, and services).
Upward Manufacturing Trend
Some data indicate the U.S. manufacturing sector is on an upward trend with more hiring and investment in people (The goal should be to help people get into these higher technology manufacturing jobs because they produce significant economic value. Being at the center of a global supply chain means that advanced manufacturing and skilled labor come together to create the highest increase in product value.). Notice the stats below and pay attention to the table to get a sense of positive trends (There is lots of mixed data but an upward trend). I believe you can also get a sense of more of the supplies are coming from shorter supply chains (i.e. increasing local wealth.)
Here are some of the statistics I looked at: durable goods +22 and the type of products produced, fabricated metal product +6.3, wood products +2.2, Mining and logging 3 (because I'm from the U.P. you have to explore the category descriptions to see if it actually related to anything we produce up here. i.e. furniture, snowshoes, etc.), Machinery -1.7, Computer and electronic products .4, Electrical equipment and appliances 3, Transportation equipment(cars) 8.4, and Construction 19. (You can read a really good article by Bill Koenig Senior Editor SME Media HERE.)- Women make up 47% of the American workforce but only 30% worked in manufacturing.
- 1/4 management positions are held by women.
- Women earned on average 16% more than the national median annual income when compared to other employed women
Wednesday, October 5, 2022
Knowledge Transfers from College to Business: Applying and Innovating
Inspiration "Docks by Day" |
It makes sense for businesses to be excited about taking those new skills and registering them to corporate improvement. Once one successfully transfers from college into their work roles the value of skills and knowledge can be realized more fully. It is up to business to maximize updated skills for organizational learning and innovation.
The higher the degree obtainment, in general the higher the knowledge transfer. Typically advanced degrees come with the possibility of entry into lower level manager or executive positions. For those graduates already employed, an advanced degree often means faster promotability. The relationship is not one for one but telling of the importance of education in the market.
I found an interesting article that may have some appeal if your wondering how to transfer new knowledge successfully into the workplace. Continuous learning is about taking new knowledge and applying it for industry improvement. The utility of using new skills within a wider theoretical understanding (specific and broad knowledge).
How Can You Apply What You Learn in School in the Workplace?Sunday, October 2, 2022
Latino Voters Numbers: Political Perspectives
Keeping up with the demographics the growing populations in the U.S. helps in things like marketing but also in general helps a broader sociological understanding. I like to read these polls from time to time and get a sense of where different demographics are leaning in their perspectives.
This voting block is maturing and starting to feel the power that comes from one of fastest growing segments of society. Because of the size of the group they will have different perspectives on the same issues that you may not find in smaller populations of peoples.
Just for understanding....
GOP cuts into Democrats’ lead among Latino voters, new poll showsThink Tank Transparency Act: Good Idea?
Pope Appeals to Putin to Stop Violence: Imams and Rabbis Should Do the Same!
We are in a world that is interconnected and we all are saddened when conflict breaks out. The Pope came out to encourage Putin to end the spiral of violence. It may be beneficial for Imams and Rabbis to come out with similar appeals now that nuclear risks have risen. All of these religions share the respect for human life and the need for peace.
He mentioned the rights of minorities and how we should protect them. Something we sometimes forget in our own nations. Our nation was started on this need and the rights of religion and speech. We should watch the horrors in Ukraine and how differences can be exploited for personal and political gain.
As we have seen in annexation of Ukraine one can use the law to justify anything but can't change the moral underpinnings of those choices. As a conservative I focus on the real deeper meanings of religion and their essential core meanings (Rino-Dino doesn't factor into it.)
Let us continue to help Ukraine and learn from conflicts in the world so that we can continue to raise our torch to lighten the way for others. Freedom is worth it!
You can read the bulletin at Pope appeals to Putin to stop war and Zelensky to be open to serious peace offers
Saturday, October 1, 2022
What is it like to be a target of hate? When the Laws No Longer Function Appropriately
Hate is powerful tool especially if it is normalized and become part of local institutions. As some of my readers know my family and I have been targeted by hate (...they told us why they were targeting us because of religion. These officers eventually did the right thing and realized they were being played with. The other department connected to that social group continued forward in support of their ethnic, racial, and/or social group.) and that included a group of 100+ mediocre ex sports players/bullies, what appears to be 3-5 officers, a local college HR (They said I was more than qualified for an adjunct labor law course but then rejected me when they found out I was the "Muslim guy" their friends didn't like and whom they were targeting. Another hint of ethnic/religious cleansing based on trying to restrict jobs and opportunities. Usually an EEOC violation where such laws applied appropriately.), and what appears to be a local judge (I can't believe they would go this far with pre-knowledge of immunity before and after such behaviors if not given a wink and nod to "clean" their community. There could be other explanations but this one would be one plausible and leading explanation.)
Imagine just for a moment if what I am saying is true (I know! I know! Impossible and would never ever happen anywhere! Ever!! 🤷 Never! 3X Never!). Just for a second let us pretend that someone who makes such a claim is telling the truth even if it seems impossible in a modern society (This much aggression is not common but I suspect many smaller forms are more common with most people are not consciously aware but do feel they got the short end of the justice stick.). If true it would open a pretty big can of worms caused not by something the out-group/other did but by the reaction of those with hate leanings to the presence of an out-group/other member; especially one who sets a boundary.
Let us further pretend the impossible and recognize that the people who started this knew they were immune as indicated in smirky aggression, condescending remarks and doubling down on trying to manipulate/harm children (devaluing their rights and their life through recklessness). They had no fear they were going to get in trouble and appeared to have been coached by some of their close officer friends on how to delegitimize someone (Typically called defamation of character and in ethnic conflict propaganda to dehumanize others) and "set" someone up through false testimony and provoke an argument through highly provocative comments, words, and aggression (It actually didn't happen because I recognized the disingenuous behaviors and am generally am more likely to pause before acting. Polite but not passive. Meaning I might tell you a truth you don't want to hear but do so in a polite way. Its called a feedback loop when your doing something wrong.)
If the officers that were involved where part of this hate group's close friend network and were doing the bidding of one of their social leaders that would be immoral (Not to mention not following the Bill of Rights or the requirements of their job function.) Likewise, if the social leader had a financial stake in how things turned out that might be a moral problem that further highlights the manipulativeness of the behaviors.
Let us also say that the people around this social leader knew that they potentially had a mental health problem based on their own personal observations. They knew that when they get upset at people they get "weird" (One of their close friends said that! Not my words.) and that others have experienced the more apparent signs of potential narcissisms with loud attention seeking and aggressive behaviors (A possible important point as to the need for better mental health intervention before you exploit race/religion for group coordinated cleansing. BTW most of the members are good people but they were socialized to a "better than you" beliefs and when you stand up to one of their bullies they quickly act as a coordinated entity to social enforce the rules.)
Worse, every time this group sees you they either chuckle loudly (...as is their custom much like chest beating of monkeys) and/or encourage people to get angry (Social bullying with a potentially violent leanings by some members.) Beyond staring kids down in a Menards parking lot their behavior more than once could have led to a group/gang/clan group fight. An example of provocative behaviors would be yelling out "Your father is a bitch" or something similar to my kids attending an event (No respect of life, liberty or pursuit of happiness. I can't believe how destructive they were to kids. A total violation of a person's rights and wink and nod free pass. If we don't have a democracy and freedom for our kids/hope then what do we actually have? If the root assumption is based on racial or religious considerations and they acted on those distorted beliefs that is kind of a serious issue. Like I said, I can't imagine I would have any serious problems with anyone in that group or do they know me or my family enough to make such judgements. 🤷)
All of that would be illegal and immoral in 1st world, 2nd world, 3rd world nations and under international law. Imagine if a local judge gave them the right to engage in these behaviors (Either let them engage in these behaviors and/or didn't step in to stop it then I would have concerns.). That would be a sign this judge is supporting a good old boy networks through racial and/or religious identities (Its only one possible explanation. There are likely others.).
If acceptable it would then be a violation of Freedom of Religion as defined in the Constitution and one of the reasons our forefathers started this country in the first place (Its not fair to have bigots define what that means to the rest of us.). Now imagine if you set up a red line to protect your kids and they doubled down on violating those boundaries to teach you a lesson on who they can and can't harm (The narcissism trait). Furthermore, they did so with the approval of their close network of officers and possibly a judge (Let us wait and see what comes out of this. Maybe not but I doubt it. Someone would have had to give them the right to target. A judge would be the person that would hold them to account and if they are in agreement then there would be no checks and balances in the system. i.e. prior knowledge they could engage in these behaviors. This is why we need more checks and balances.)
Standing up to hate is a dangerous affair. Where laws don't always apply there are all types of things that can go haywire when your part of the other side of society. The more you talk, the more they target through raising punishments and that could further lead to a violation of Freedom of Speech through intimidation tactics to remain silent (..an illegitimate use of legitimate power). (The break down of the rule of law as applied universally to American citizens. Targeting seems ok as long as the "other" is seen as less valuable and not truly worth of inherent rights. Whether they, people in their family, or others fought for those rights. It only matters the religion, ethnic affiliation, and social network of the perpetrators.).
(I want to clarify that I believe 90+% of the officers in the area are doing the right thing, our state and federal systems are functioning {not perfectly but functioning} and that most people want the best outcomes for our nation and inherent rights. There is that 10% of the society that wants what they want and no one else matters if it doesn't fit within their distorted perception of the world. That is the 10% of society that approve of cleansing, political violence and/or other aggressive behaviors. Those are big national numbers but think about what that might look like on a local level and within some of our institutions if the targets seem so worth of hate and so very very different then their perpetrators.)
What is it like to be a target? These are just a couple of things I learned. Most of the people in the community support you and provide a welcoming environment. This is your hometown and people know you come from here and have every right to be here. However, a group of officers, their friends, and what looks like a local judge can create a highly toxic environment. (Neglecting that this is my town and my genetic line precedes many of theirs). When your seen as the "other" the laws stop being your friend and are directed toward you (Most minorities know how this works and until the riots most judges didn't care. It is a fundamental issue in our society. We need universal justice and the demand for that will likely grow. I support police 100% and civil rights 110%).
You know what happened was wrong and you know they targeted your child for personal gain and hate based bigotry. You know that they were given a free pass and they had support for such aggressive behaviors both officially and socially among their connected network. You stay and you take risks but if you leave you allowed corruption to cleans out their community. Leaving would mean others are at risk in the future and likely there were victims in the past (This is where state and federal stakeholders should consider the dangers of local institutions that don't follow our Constitution, laws, or cultural understanding of moral conscious).
You do what you can do based on the tools available to you. You be polite but not passive, you call for accountability, you challenge, you help your community, encourage reconciliation with recognition of their bad behaviors, you try and bring opportunity but what you don't do is sugar coat dangerous and at multiple times potentially violent behaviors. Bending a knee to fear, hate and potential (I can only say potential but it seems to add up) disrespect to all those who sacrificed for Freedom or Speech and Freedom of Religion (Some of us live it everyday. Freedom isn't only an abstract concept.). It becomes to define your community and the values of the nation (How wonderful the vast majority of the local society actually is.).
What I advocate is for a win-win. No one needs to get in trouble if they don't want to. Its an opportunity to learn as a community and as a nation. Undiagnosed and untreated mental health may have spawned the hate to a group of ex sports players that had poor boundaries and false beliefs of Blacks, Muslims and Others. Close connections between perpetrators and police officers may have misguided a judge with coordinated false testimony much in the same way as they engaged in group behaviors. That can be answered based on how the judge finds out they were given false information. If they don't tackle the problem in an appropriate way (i.e. not just blame the victim) then it could mean they were aware and want to minimize what happened. Some things are being designed as we move forward......
(Nothing in here is fact it is only the most likely explanation I can come up with based on first sight observations, knowledge and possible explanations. There are other explanations like a rare disease or something like odd like that {just making a point}. However, what I have here is likely a leading "ball park" reasonable conclusion. New knowledge with change and adjust that. One justifying these targeting behaviors as appropriate would have a different construction of events than one not justifying these behaviors. That is the two "worlds" of perception and logic that are often rooted in our culture and backgrounds. In society now it is nearly 50/50 with half running down certain mental chains of thoughts (neural networks) and the other half running down a different mental chain of thoughts. Those who feel "entitled" to the law will interpret the purpose of law different then those who feel less "entitled" to the law. Different experiences, different logics, and different conclusions. The rare divergent thinker can run down both if they have the experiences to understand those symbolisms, cultures, and root value systems. You will eventually see what I'm saying in future posts....)
Friday, September 30, 2022
Annexation of Parts of Ukraine Has Longer Term Implications
Annexation of Ukraine is an important point in history and while it has been discounted by some it comes with its own long term significance. Most historians are likely to say such annexation wasn't legitimate. They will also likely bring in certain aspects of a broader historical timeline into their discussion. In hindsight, current events are seen through the context of past in a way that sheds light on motivations and behaviors.
Russia is using false justification of self-defense which likely gives Putin some additional powers to lock down the decision making of the nation. During "war time" or in "defense of the homeland" puffery, one is likely to get more powers to increase control on the Russian population to fight off internal descent, more control over resources and create a level of perceptual support for his actions.
Putin is a sly fox with experience in the dark arts of manipulation so he is all about creating false justifications and leverage. "Defending the homeland" gives him additional war powers that he can use to create that internal leverage. We should not expect him to just leave because his army becomes routed. He might ratchet up his efforts to create the Iron Curtain to isolate Russia more to allow for a level of nation building and internal industry protection.
(However some of the fundamentals might not be there anymore so it will come with longer term risks of another collapse.)
I think he is the type who loved the Cold War and really doesn't like democracy or free markets very much. He likely blames such markets for the Soviet fall. However, that isn't true as from my understanding of history the USSR was collapsing already well before they reformed. Reform was born out of necessity and social pressure. Much of our generation remember watching the news when the country collapsed and with many had hopes Russia could be brought into the fold of positive international engagement. Right now that feels a long way off.
*adjusted 10/27/2023 to ensure the message is clearer. I got confused by reading my own writing.