Blades of Steel! Just about but not there yet.

This picture makes me think of
"Excellence". I'm probably going to use
in a gallery submission.
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Recently I went fencing to try my luck at the blades of steel. I had a little training prior and have at least the basics down of all three sword fighting techniques down (I have a little knowledge of the bo staff as well.). Yet I have been inconsistent in my play and practice but I hoped some skills don't fade quickly. I didn't have much to lose.

The three styles of fencing include epee, foil and sabre. I like sabre the most because there is more total movement (targets and possibilities) and its somewhat of a practical sport. That doesn't mean I'm necessarily good at all of them but that I'm not the worst player our there either! 

On this particular day I played four bouts of which (You can read the rules HERE and some pointers HERE) I was pushed around loosing embarrassingly the first three bouts. However, in the last bout I lost 4 to 5. Yippie!!!

That would normally stink but these were full members who come a few times a week. They live their lives fencing and around fencing. I'm just a guy who knows enough to play. However, the guy I lost two in the last bout was an instructor and a pro. 

So bragging rights! 😏I lost to a professional!!!! 🥳

The point is.....its for fun and how we define our own performance is relative to the others around us. Be happy to loose to better players! 

I should say that if you are looking for a serious cardio sport fencing is one of them. There is so much back and forth movement with equipment you will be doing HITT training in no time. 

Sometimes receiving a little help if you are new to fitness can go a long way. I have fitness trainer, yoga and self defense certifications and do training as a side gig. Training is done virtually and catered to your specific goals and needs. Affordable. Limited space and availability. Email Fitness Training

Q1-2022 US GDP Sinks $1.4%: What's Next?

BEA released their Q1 2022 GDP analysis and it was a -1.4% GDP. See HERE. If you want a pretty solid analysis of it take a look at U.S. GDP fell at a 1.4% pace to start the year as pandemic recovery takes a hit by Jeff Cox. (I like looking at people who have been doing this for a long time. They have lots of great knowledge. For me I'm just paying attention for theoretical reasons.) 

What I'm going to say about this is that we have a lot of things going on here (Increases risk and complexity.). That includes international conflict, supply chain issues, and inflation. We also find that consumers are still buying stuff (Who says were not a consumer culture?)

At the end of the day this is not expected to be a major downturn. Yet I don't think predictions are going to be perfect. It could be a little more of a downturn or it could be GDP growth going forward. Older metrics and ways of looking at the economy are changing. 

I think we are going to see real  boosts the later half of year and we are going to have a great 23-24 transition (Could come a little sooner as adaptation time. Lot of businesses are shifting around right now and moving their supply chains so that is part of the overall view in addition to COVID digital push. I could also be completely wrong. I'm somewhat indifferent as its not central to the main theory I'm working on.). Digital GDP will become increasingly a bigger part of economics and society (Things will change faster leading to cultural, institutional, and social adjustments.) 

Lets wait and find out.....

Values: What do they mean and why are they still important? (Business, Society, Life)

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Values are something that are important in society and I believe they will be even more important as we move through technological and socio-cultural  change that will likely adjust our institutions. Whether you are a business person, in government, or just a person living their daily lives I fell that values will differentiate those of quality from those who lack quality. 

Let me be a little clearer. We are not talking about the "judgy" values that shallow people use to put down others but the deeper values incorporating the "truths" woven into life. These are deeply rooted values that apply across different spectrums of society. It is these universal values that will be the marker of those who should lead and those who should follow. 

Let us say you are hiring a new CEO. One gets the job done regardless of the cost. He/she lies and manipulates but still performs to get their goals accomplished. Another CEO may also perform but does have limits on their behavior (i.e. they don't always take the short term gain.). It would be tempting to choose the "get it done at all costs" as the person most appealing for business but it carries uncalculated risks. 

Treading the line of immoral, unethical or illegal only lasts for so long. Of course you wouldn't be wise if you ran your business off of this mentality. You are asking for problems, a blow out of some type, and other issues that will likely get your company in hot water. Values are part of good governance and getting the job done while still considering the other stakeholders in society creates longevity in business (Tangible brand value and management strength). 

I've seen the opposite occur where poor values persisted that nearly/did cause the collapse of a business but also was indicative of the wider society (also leading to larger bankruptcy.) Likewise, I have seen how poor values warped aspects of local governance and that in turn created wider chaos (Not that people see themselves as responsible for anything.)

While values don't seem very important, when you take a wider perspective I have seen how values are important on an accumulative scale. A poor judgement call on a lower level often is indicative of thinking on a wider level. Add them up over time and you have a long-term problem brewing based in values and culture. Mistakes are mistakes and bad values are bad values.

My suggestion is to hold certain universal values as important to your business, governance, and society at large. While short term losses can sometimes happen because your willing to make choices based on those values, organizations often win over the long term. They become more stable, supported by wider networks, and create more value for customers/stakeholders. There is ROI to universal values.

The Atlanta Ship Discovered on Bottom of Lake Superior 130 Years After Being Lost

The Great Lakes Shipwreck Historical Society (GLSHS) announced the discovery of the Atlanta in 650 feet of water. According to the article Missing ship discovered after 130 years at bottom of Lake Superior the ship was under tow  and had no sails. Once the towline snapped the ship was abandoned. People died within the escape attempt when using their little row boat to find saftey. 

I do a little shipwreck diving from time-to-time. I'm looking for a ship Queen City in Delta County and turned in an unmarked ship to NOAA (Not sure what happened. I didn't discover it but it was unlisted and dived by locals that didn't know the name of the ship.) so its great to keep up-to-date about local shipwrecks. Its also nice to know some of these for future diving (This one is too deep to dive.)

 

Sea Navigation Photo: Motivating to Performance

I'm looking through some pictures for a art gallery submission. I took a few photos while ago I liked but have sort of put them all over the place. I might create an online gallery to sell some of the works if people like them for their office or home. Stay tuned. For now I just try and share for readership pleasure and perhaps raise a few dollars for orphans. 

Some of my pictures are kind of business like and I think might look good on a wall. So if your interested in this one just let me know, post a comment or something. This one makes me think of navigating change and charting courses. If you know where your going you can inspire others to follow. 

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Integrity Is an Important Concept for Leaders and National Institutions

“Every sailor knows that you can’t sail a ship
that isn’t moving forward,
strong leaders understand that to change direction,
you first have to create forward progress.”
John Maxwell

Integrity is an interesting word and is an important one for the transitions we face as a society. Older patterns of thinking and ways of looking at the world sometimes need to adjust to the newer challenges that face us. When we don't update our thinking we run into situations where the values of a wide swath of society (...as defined by characteristics such as generational, racial, religious, etc...) are not in alignment with the values of some institutions (...meaning there is dissonance that will create conflict). Without reorienting the values of one or the other (or both) we will continue to see growing differences and rubs/conflicts that will play out in different avenues. Integrity can help...but only if we live by those values, manage by those values, and use those values as something we agree upon. 

First let us discuss integrity from a leadership standpoint. Here are a couple of quick studies......

 1. Integrity Raises Organizational Effectiveness. ".....effective leadership correlates with integrity and the presence of integrity will improve organizational effectiveness." (Storr, 2004, pg. 1)

2. Integrity = Trust = Organizational Performance: Integrity is one of the most important characteristics of leadership according to a Robert Half Management Services (as stated in Williams, n.d.)

Integrity influences perceptions of trust and that in turn leads to improve organizational influence. Trust that one will act with certain values (i.e. moral conscious) allows for better management as people are willingly to adjust their own behaviors to meet current challenges because they "trust" the vision and the leader. Reasonableness, the ability to think beyond oneself, compromise, hold oneself accountable, truthfulness, moral conscious, etc. are partial indicators of integrity.

Here are a few important concepts to ponder: 

1. How might political behaviors impact positively or negatively perceptions of trust among the general population?

2. Does the ability to solve problems influence perceptions of trust?

3. What happens to trust of institutions if integrity is not seen as important or rewarded from a cultural standpoint?

4. Where individuals, departments, entities are not acting with integrity (i.e. meaning adjusting, removing bad actors, honesty, forthrightness, wise use of resources, following a value system society believes in, correcting mistakes, etc.) will it create dissonance in society?

5. Is it necessary for leaders of organizations to have integrity in order effectively navigate change?

Williams, T. (as citation of original. n.d.) Why Integrity Remains One of the Top Leadership Attributes. Economist Education. https://execed.economist.com/blog/industry-trends/why-integrity-remains-one-top-leadership-attributes

 Storr L. Leading with integrity: a qualitative research study. J Health Organ Manag. 2004;18(6):415-34. Abstract from doi: 10.1108/14777260410569984. PMID: 15588012.

(Side note: In the situation in which I am familiar, dishonest i.e. lack of integrity potentially led to different types of chaos and legal violations as they relate to civil rights  and others {We will later discuss the importance of civil rights in the development of a competitive and innovative nation. Its part of strong cluster management as well.} Where good judgement should have been forthcoming social connections warped the functionality and decisions/behaviors of important institution (s). When integrity isn't present the institution could be derailed from serving wider interests/needs of society.  Poor and/or misleading behaviors of individuals/groups can risk positive/negative perceptions of wider institutions. Such systems should be managed in alignment with American values under the definitions/rights of the Constitution and our founding fathers/mothers to maintain integrity through sense of purpose. Leaders and their networks can sometimes create positive and/or negative influence within organizations and derail and/or realign them from/to their missions. Picking the right leaders and having the proper checks and balances helps create institutional resilience. Where and how much influence individuals should have is a matter of debate when it comes to important national institutions. Too much leadership influence and they can become warped while with too little leadership influence and they struggle with needed change. So the more important the institution to society, the more checks and balances we may need. Integrity in society is still important to better ensure public perceptions of legitimate purpose and thus support. In other words, we must pick people with integrity to lead and maintain a level of checks and balance when/if systems fail.)

China Moves to "Beef up" Infrastructure: U.S. Needs a Double Patty!

 If you are following the China and U.S. national competitive initiatives you can gain a grasp of how infrastructure is becoming central to both nations and their approaches. China is a country that rose to power quickly in part because some U.S. executives found that the profits drawn from investing overseas was worth more than the total cost-benefit of investing in the U.S. (See how metrics can be misleading because they are finite and often fail to take in all the different factors. They used profit as one of the primary drivers without considering the longer term implications such as stolen technology, weakening of U.S. competitiveness, long term economic health, workforce development, etc.... That doesn't mean outsourcing to free up U.S. capacity to focus on higher value development is different than outsourcing entire manufacturing sectors to shave price. One keeps the highest value aspects of the line in the U.S. while the other moves the ultimate direction of value to another country.). The U.S. has amazing cultural and national resources that can be dusted off and put back to good use. Likewise, it has a shot at creating the first advanced Digital Era advanced manufacturing nations (That could happen if policy makers make the right decisions that lead to a series of open doors. Everything has risk and that includes doing nothing. China is also pushing to enhance its digital technology thereby understanding the wider significance is beneficial.)

I think you should read the article below to sort of gain a better understanding of what is going on. We have options to put our infrastructure initiatives into industry-government macro innovation systems whereby multiple sectors gain advantage (military, industry, micro companies, communities, etc...). Let us see what our policy makers come up with (Let just wait a few minutes while they finish up bickering about lesser important things. Just wait...they should finish anytime soon......waiting.....coming soon.....anytime now........💤💤😒🤷 Biggest Threats)

China’s Xi announces another infrastructure push to boost growth as Covid drags on

Deutsche Bank Predicts 2023 Recession-Maybe but Not so Sure 🤔

There is a prediction by Deutsche Bank that in 2023 the Fed will cause a mild recession. According to JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon things could get worse if environmental factors get worse. There is potential for soft recession or deeper recession. There are also possibilities other interesting things can happen. (It should be noted that when we are talking about probabilities and possibilities each outcome is dependent on other factors.) So there is no crystal ball when it comes to predicting the future but one can project the future based on past performances (i.e. the same thing Fed Chair Jerome Powell is saying when he talks of soft landings. He is looking at past incidents to predict economic behaviors based on similar circumstance. There is a whole complex science to it. I failed my Harvard extension economics class...so you know. 🤷). We look at past history to sort of understand what might happen in current situations. 

It should be noted that we are moving through a transformational shift where the very market fundamentals we experiences in a physical world system is changing so the calculations are likely need to change as well to make more accurate predictions. We don't have a full grasp of how much of the economy is online and how a changing distribution and payment system is going to change the fundamentals of commerce. Many things will still stay the same but predictions on older metrics are likely to be increasingly inaccurate leaving wider variability in outcomes (I looked around a little on growth in Digital GDP but didn't find what I was looking for. However, I suspected a while ago the trend line was going to shoot upwards with COVID and I think that is correct. 2023/24 might be pivotal year when short term adaptation strategies are refined and implemented in new long term approaches. Blah Blah Blah!)

Anyway....you will want to read Deutsche Bank is the first big bank to forecast a US recession.🤔

Is Michigan the Next Space State? Innovation, Adaptation, and Feedback Loops

If your wondering what is exciting in the U.P. you have to read this The New Yorker article by David Rompf entitled 'The Plan to Make Michigan the Next Space State'. The race is on and the U.S. needs to be at the top of it. We aren't talking about just sending a global net into the air but the actual discovery of new things and space dominance (commercial shipping, mining, military, exploration, etc...). Space will be that new frontier in the same way that sailing around the globe and developing the first plane changed our lives (ok...for the younger age...the invention of the cell phone as an example!)

The U.P. is a perfect place for space development. It is rural, surrounded by water, and rugged. You can find some of the world's most noteworthy natural forests. It is the type of place where people gain a sense of what it was like before the advent of technology (I actually know people who trap as augmented income.). We are talking about taking something as outback as Siberia that allows for measurable cluster development (Its an unfinished theory based on the humanistic and natural way in which new ideas are created, spread, and developed for production to create innovative avenues for industries. It may not be a good idea but its seems to be fairly consistent in its orientation. I'm not 100% convinced I have seen much better out there in terms of national/industry macro innovation. Meaning, the cluster spearheads emerging technology where all the elements come together and the wider industry can adapt to the new developments through national/global export of new products/services. Maybe there is better theoretical stuff but I haven't yet seen a relatively holistic theory on the topic. Bits and pieces but not holistic. This theory is ugly and unfinished and needs to be rewritten to organize the majority of the content into an easier to understand/practical application (Using my DBA mindset.) However, I think you can see that each of the major points are justified and related into a semi cohesive concept. Maybe not....I shouldn't quit my day job! ). 

There are criticisms of new government development by some locals and I guess and we should be willing to pay attention to some of those criticisms. I find that while criticism are heartfelt, they also based on fears of the unknowns. If people feel that environmental factors are of concern or they are unsure of the impact on community they will have questions (We, as national institutions, should welcome and expect them.). 

Understanding those issues helps in developing better policies and potential community oriented outcomes that lead to greater support and coordination. Perhaps community members need more information, we might be able to make adjustments that allay fears, or we could hire as many locals possible to maximize impact to people they see on a daily basis (We meaning as a societal institution we all have stakes in its success. ).  Small changes can go a long way. (I'm a big supporter of our military and believe that it is one of those institutions that runs by a moral code. It can be mostly trusted because its essential values are based in honor and integrity; even when others don't want to hear it or want to see it. Yes, it also has room for improvement.)

That being said there will be from time-to-time unreasonable personalities and of course once you provide relevant information and engage to create positive prosocial outcomes the responsibilities begin to lay on such people to make the effort to understand and adjust. "Agendas" are different then feedback. Legitimate concerns should always be taking with a full ear yet those who say the same thing over and over without a resolution are going to be more challenging to work with.

As with everything we do in society, there will be benefits and costs. To me, our military is essential to our national development and sometimes we will need to look at the bigger picture to see why that is the case (That doesn't mean other institutions are also critically important. Bread and Butter arguments.). Our nation will soon be competing on a level we are not accustomed in modern times and younger generations (The Digital Era brings positive benefits and increased adaptation. Those nations that adapt quicker can also master this new era. The space race is part of that mental and technology transition. Of course we no one can say for sure but the data seem to indicate major societal and technological shifts that are likely to impact geopolitical structures. i.e. Russian last grasp for greatness, Arab Springs, Capitol Riot, and general shifts in national/international sentiment as information more easily passes across the globe. It is incumbent on all of us in society to work together to find solutions that not only put the U.S. in its best strategic position but also create greater international support. I have a perspective but of course that doesn't mean its perfect or without fault...but just that it is only maybe possible. A few related interesting pieces...   Economic Platforms, GDP Govt Mind,  Infrastructure Bill, Innovation Act, Advanced Democracy, China 2033 ).

I two thumbs up Michigan as a Space State 👍👍 (It will likely come with other benefits. Time will tell.....)

Violence Against Police Rising: Its Not the Solution

Policing is a necessary part of societal life and rising violence is going to bring more problems. Just like ignoring blatant problems in policing isn't the solution it is also not a solution to attack officers (It heightens issues to a point people make even bigger mistakes due to fear, frustration, and impulsivity.). The problem we face is that major differences in perspective (different views in society) and the people who heighten those differences for personal/political gain are creating bigger societal schisms. Ponder an important number.....

According to the article 'FBI director says violence directed at police officers unlike anything he's seen before' violence against police rose 59% to 73 murdered officers in 2021 (Lives lost in the line of duty. While it doesn't seem like a huge number the trend and the ambush methods are concerning.)

There are recruiting problems and other issues rising within policing and we should be concerned about finding long term solutions (That includes recruitment, training, and effectiveness.). Some change is way overdo and our politicians (and others) are not doing us any favors by foot dragging on thorny and politically dicey issues (Notice that if you work from your universal values there is little need to prejudge situations or embarrassing flip flop on issues later when the "political winds" have changed. Learning people/organizations take in new information and continuously adjust understandings because it reflects back various levels of "truth". More genuine opinions create a shared "truth" that we as society believe and experience in tandem with each other. Blah blah blah philosophy stuff! 🤓) . At the same time, violence will cause more problems and in turn create additional need to "crack down" on people  and in turn potentially cause further rifts as different sides view the other as inherently dangerous (Political opinion, perception, intent and body language create "truths".). 

I believe WE can fix these problems as soon as WE develop the political maturity to start focusing on finding solutions (versus constant mud slinging and blind partisanship). Every problem has a solution. Management of organizations (countries, companies, people, etc..) is all about finding solutions to problems so as to adapt the organization to the challenges of our environment/time/space. I don't believe this situation will be going away soon and I feel the longer it lingers there is heightened risk of the wrong decisions being made at the wrong time (Causing a bigger issue and perhaps fundamental break).. 

We can only encourage our leaders to dig deep into their values, gain a wider perspective of our national purpose, and roll up their sleeves to get the sides working together on important legislation/resolutions. Our nation and its people are not a political game for personal enrichment and there are real consequences (to the nation, people, police, etc.) if we fail to anchor our perspective around shared American/"American" values (I say that because I have a Muslim sounding name so what I have to say isn't usually seen as beneficial/valid among some circles of society. Others probably believe I on occasion trip over my own tongue and make a good point here and there. It might be rare but you never know. 🤷). I support police 100% and I support peaceful protestors and practical/beneficial reforms 100%. We are all in this boat together and violence is going to bring more problems, pain, and chaos (That means constructive dialogue is my and should be everyone else's preferred path.). 

Unfortunately when we are reactive to looming issues versus proactive tackling problems we find ourselves increasing behind the curve ball when change heads our way (Without the mental, physical, financial or political tools to resolve through adaptation.). This is why we have freedom of speech and should always be open to the possibilities of new ideas, new ways of looking at things and new ways of solving problems. When we get stuck in our thinking we limit our capacities because we don't see all the possibilities. Selling proactivity is difficult if we are still dealing/fumbling with problems of the past. Living in the present and focusing on the future will strategically give us the best options going forward (i.e. lets stop talking about who is at fault and who is right/wrong and instead focus on the root of the problem to create fundamental shared values on policing. If our politicians dig deep enough they are likely to find that there are practical solutions that most people agree with and are willing to support. Unfortunately, our political networks that have carved up nation limit bi-partisan approaches for seen as being soft and weak. The ability to question and work together isn't "weakness" or lack of political resolve. It is the essence of a democratic system! Our entire system is designed around creating shared perspective through democracy. Think about freedom of speech, voting, electing, etc... and how those are designed to keep society focused on dialogue and potential solutions. When communication breaks down and hope of resolution dissipates is when hard lines are draw and the really big problems begin! I think as an American people we should be expect our politicians to put aside their petty grips and get to work solving this issue. In theory we are paying them and in turn they should be doing their jobs to the best of their abilities. I guess that depends on whether political opinion is reflective of society or society is reflective of political opinion. Chicken or egg concepts....sorry a little deep there. 😬 Hagel. I digress....)