Friday, September 24, 2021

Semi Conductors-The Need for Innovative Clusters Highlighted

 Semiconductors are important not only to Michigan and the automotive industry but also to the nation as a whole. Essential equipment like semiconductors (and others) help ensure the rest of the system is functioning. When they are limited in supply the integrity of the entire production chain becomes questionable. While we may have outsourced much of that and didn't keep our eye on our own national security issues we do have an opportunity to change that trajectory. With cluster development I believe we can put semiconductor experts and leading US/International companies together to start an innovative build; the same can be said for other essential industries (i.e. cluster related in competencies, resources, and skill.) I think my Delta County Michigan Transaction Model for Cluster Development might be of some use. Invest R&D SubFactors MultiCluster DC Shipping

Government/White House will now be investigating the semiconductor supply chain to discover any issues that might be slowing down production and its wider supply network; vertical and horizontal (i.e.MI auto). What might be helpful is to draw a map of that supply chain and then create multiple linkages (alternative transaction chains) around bottlenecks to better ensure adaptability if any aspect of the chain goes out (perhaps a 2 week maximum revamp time matched with at least 2 weeks of back supply in storage/warehouse. Any number is ok...as long as it covers the revamp time.).

 Furthermore, a certain amount of essential materials could be produce in the "Americas" (US CAN MX, South America) in a regional effort to protect production capacity (Maybe MX could help us with the border crisis a little if we make a good faith effort to draw back some of the low cost labor manufacturing from Asia to there. Remember we want to price out our competitors in all of the pricing brackets. New innovative products lead the market but then become part of low cost manufacturing as novelty wears off. Generating revenue throughout more U.S. based companies during the product life cycle can be helpful in maximizing tax advantages. Maybe? 🤔). Where we are over reliant on outside/foreign resources (We should have a balance.) we might consider thinking about developing alternative designs to create multiple paths in technology development lines that could open up new possibilities to unknown technologies in the future. We are in the process of innovating our nation and thus should consider new ways of doing business and maintaining national competitive position. Global Supply Chain, Systems Thinking, System Think Strategy, Does US Need Shorter Supply Chain?, Cross Structure Synergy Physical/Virtual

While it may not seem like it COVID taught us to deal with our outsourced capacity in order to diversify our sources and be able to ramp up American businesses when needed (better now then in 10 years where our available national resources options are more limited)

Thursday, September 23, 2021

Gov. Whitmer and Legislature Come Together on Bipartisan Budget that Puts Michiganders First Without Raising Taxes

 Some interesting stuff below in terms of the State's ability to figure out its next step. I'm in favor of bi-partisan legislature when a wide group of stakeholders will benefit. While sometimes its necessary debate/argue key points much of what has been provided here makes sense. There is something called the the Michigan Infrastructure Council below. The more we know of what is going on in the state the more we are informed of the decision making process and its best outcomes. 

THE MICHIGAN INFRASTRUCTURE COUNCIL (Website)

  • About Splash

    The Michigan Infrastructure Council (MIC) is comprised of nine appointed voting members who are representative of one or more of the following: (1) asset management experts from the public and private sectors with knowledge of and expertise in the areas of planning, design, construction, management, operations and maintenance for drinking water, wastewater, storm water, transportation, energy, and communications, (2) financial and procurement experts from the public or private sector, and (3) experts in regional asset management planning across jurisdictions and infrastructure sectors. All voting members serve 3-year terms. Five of the voting positions are appointed by the Governor, one by the Senate Majority Leader, one by the Speaker of the House, one by the Senate Minority Leader, and one by the House Minority Leader.

    The MIC is also comprised of nine non-voting members representing state agencies, the Water Asset Management Council (WAMC), the Transportation Asset Management Council (TAMC), and the Michigan Public Service Commission (MPSC).

Gov. Whitmer and Legislature Come Together on Bipartisan Budget that Puts Michiganders First Without Raising Taxes (Website)

Budgets includes $500 million deposit into rainy day fund, grows workforce development programs, expands childcare, builds up bridges and water infrastructure 

LANSING, Mich. - Governor Gretchen Whitmer celebrates bipartisan budget agreement as the legislature moves budget bills for Fiscal Year 2022, which begins on October 1. She plans to sign the bipartisan budget into law before the end of the month. The budget provides strong investments for the state's economy, enhances childcare for Michigan's working families, invests in education and the skills needed for Michigan's workforce, protects our health, prioritizes cleaning up our water and environment, and rebuilds our infrastructure and crumbling bridges. 

The General Fund budget will total $11.8 billion, and when combined with the already signed School Aid Budget of $17.0 billion ($2 billion from federal sources), the full budget will provide $26.8 billion in state spending. With federal funding and other restricted revenues included, the full budget will total just under $70 billion. In July, Gov. Whitmer signed the School Aid budget, providing historic investments in K-12 education and increasing access to preschool, marking the end of a 27-year journey to close the funding gap between school districts.      

"I am thrilled that the legislature and I were able to come together to agree on a bipartisan budget. Our collaboration is a testament to what's possible when we work together and put our families, communities, and small businesses first," said Governor Whitmer. "The budget will make the biggest-ever one-time deposit into our rainy day fund, repair or replace nearly 100 bridges, expand childcare to 105,000 kids at low or no-cost, replace lead service lines, permanently raise pay for direct care workers, and do so, so much more. I look forward to continuing in the spirit of collaboration to spend the billions in federal dollars we have available to us from the American Rescue Plan and the billions more we are expected to receive from the bipartisan federal infrastructure bill. When we come together, we are capable of making incredible progress and I am proud that we got this done."    

"I am proud of this budget and the collaboration with the legislature to create a spending plan centered on transformational investments that will drive Michigan's continued recovery," said State Budget Director David Massaron. "This budget is going to help Michigan emerge as an even stronger state and it provides the type of investments that will foster real and lasting improvements to support Michigan's families and businesses."    

The budget will provide a series of investments to help Michigan's economy, including lowering the costs and expanding the access of childcare for working families. The funding plan includes: 

  • $108.1 million that makes 105,000 more children eligible for child care by increasing income eligibility to 185 percent of the federal poverty level through fiscal year 2023, then 160 percent ongoing in the following fiscal years. 
  • $13 million to waive parent copays for childcare through fiscal year 2022. 
  • $158 million for an ongoing 30 percent rate increase for childcare providers, with an additional $222 million for a temporary rate increase. 
  • $117.4 million to pay for enrollment in childcare through fiscal year 2023. 
  • $36.5 million over 3 years to expand the number of childcare spaces for infants and toddlers.   
  • $700.7 million for stabilization grants and another $100 million for startup grants for childcare providers, including technical assistance and facility improvements. 
  • $30 million for a one-time $1,000 bonus for childcare staff. 
  • $100 million for community revitalization and placemaking grants to support economic development in local communities. 

"This relief is coming not a moment too soon - today's budget will be a lifeline to the child care providers who were struggling to make ends meet even before the pandemic," said Annemarie Valdez, President of First Steps Kent. "These funds will make it possible to stabilize not only the child care industry, but will help bring Michigan parents back into the workforce, which will in turn alleviate pressures on our economy overall. Thanks to the Governor and State legislators for negotiating a deal that puts families first."   

The budget will also provide direct support for education and skills training to help address the skills gap and provide Michigan employers with the talent needed to move the economy forward. Investments will include: 

  • $55 million for the Reconnect program to provide a tuition-free pathway to an in-demand industry certificate or associate degree for Michigan adults age 25 and older to help Michiganders get the skills they need to compete for a good-paying, in-demand job.  
  • $25 million for the Futures for Frontliners scholarship program that pays for frontline workers to attend local community college tuition-free. 
  • $40 million for the Going Pro program to expand employer-based training grants that result in industry-recognized credentials and certificates to help raise wages for workers and help employers fill job openings. 
  • $6 million for wraparound supports for Reconnect or Futures for Frontliners to remove barriers to degree completion. 
  • $8 million for pre-apprenticeship/apprenticeship training programs that will expand Michigan's talent pool in the construction and building trades.  
  • $1 million for Focus: HOPE to support workforce development, youth development, and community empowerment and advocacy programs. 
  • Increased base funding of 1 percent for operations at universities and community colleges, with a one-time 4% increase in funds to help keep tuition costs down.   

"Michigan is ready to work, and we have good-paying jobs in the skilled trades that need to be filled,' said Cheryl Sanford, CEO of the Michigan AFL-CIO Workforce Development Institute. "This budget's use of resources to help provide apprenticeship readiness programming helps close that skills gap, connects those in hardship with access to opportunity, and ultimately builds financial sustainability for working families across Michigan." 

"The resources provided in this budget for Michigan Reconnect and Futures for Frontliners are vital for Michigan's community colleges and their role in moving our state forward," said Steve Robinson, Ph.D., President of Lansing Community College. 

The budget will also make strong investments in the state's infrastructure to provide additional resources necessary to make needed repairs and replacements, including: 

  • $196 million for local bridge bundling to repair or replace nearly 100 crumbling bridges in serious and critical condition.  
  • $14.3 million to help local governments prepare for climate change and extreme weather, including flooding and coastal erosion.  
  • $19 million for dam repairs and replacements to mitigate flooding and hazards caused by dam malfunction. 
  • $3 million for the Michigan Infrastructure Council. 

"Investing in infrastructure just makes sense for Michigan," said Tom Lutz, Executive Secretary-Treasure of the Michigan Regional Council of Carpenters and Millwrights. "I applaud Governor Whitmer and the Legislature for coming together on a budget that will fix our long-crumbling bridges, roads and other critical infrastructure with a plan that will create jobs and put hard working men and women to work all across this state." 

The budget will also fund key initiatives centered on the health of Michigan families, including: 

  • $460 million to give a permanent $2.35/hour raise to direct care workers who take care of our most vulnerable in nursing homes and beyond. 
  • $7.4 million to expand the Infant Home Visiting program for evidence-based home visiting services to at-risk families with infants born with substance exposure. 
  • $19.1 million for the MiChoice program expansion to provide alternatives to nursing home care and allow seniors to stay in their homes (increase of 1,000 slots). 
  • $6.7 million for the Sickle Cell Disease Initiative to cover the cost of treatment to around 400 adults and increase outreach and clinical capacity supporting the estimated 4,000 Michigan residents living with sickle cell disease, which disproportionately affects Black people. 
  • $8.4 million to reduce health disparities and expand the use of community-based navigators to enhance access to health coverage, and improve screening, data sharing and interoperability of existing data systems through the Michigan Health Information Network.  
  • $5 million for a pilot program to bring down utility bills for families by improving home weatherization and energy efficiency.  

"Our direct care workers work hard every day, but have especially gone above and beyond over the past year," said Robert Stein, Michigan Assisted Living Association. "We thank Gov. Whitmer for recognizing the value of direct care workers and supporting a wage increase." 

"The Sickle Cell Disease Association of Michigan (SCDAM) thanks Governor Whitmer for her leadership in the fight to address health care disparities," said Dr. Wanda Whitten-Shurney, CEO/Medical Director of the Sickle Cell Disease Association of America, Michigan Chapter. "ASCDAM sits at the forefront of creating real systematic change in the care of individuals living with sickle cell disease. This much needed increase in funding will be instrumental in helping to improve the quality of life for patients across the state."  

The budget also focuses on the need to invest in our water and environment, including: 

  • $10 million to continue the replacement of lead service lines in Benton Harbor to provide access to safe drinking water.  
  • $15 million for the Emergency Drinking Water Fund to help the state address drinking water emergencies. 
  • $14 million to address PFAS and another $22 million to clean up contaminated sites across the state. 
  • $25 million to clean up the Western Lake Erie Basin by reducing phosphorus levels. 
  • $10 million for the Lead Poisoning Prevention Fund to help eliminate lead poisoning in homes by injecting private capital into lead remediation efforts.  
  • $5 million for the State Facility Green Revolving Fund which is a catalyst for energy efficiency and renewable energy projects at state facilities, helping reduce the state's carbon footprint and save taxpayer dollars. 

"This first round of funding for clean, efficient energy and safe drinking water includes a number of new, innovative initiatives and is a down payment on the significant costs we will have to pay to clean up contaminated sites across our state and protect our water," said Nick Occhipinti, government affairs director for Michigan League of Conservation Voters. "Safe and clean drinking water is not a partisan issue, and we look forward to continuing to work with lawmakers and the Governor to ensure protecting our water and our health are priorities in the final budget and in upcoming investments our state will make with federal recovery aid."  

The safety of Michigan residents is also prioritized in this budget, with $7.3 million in increased funding to hire and train new corrections officers for the state's prison system, and more than $800,000 in new funding for wellness initiatives for corrections employees.  

Department of State Police investments include $3.8 million to expand the use of body cameras, $4.5 million for a professional development and training effort, $7.7 million for a trooper recruit school, $2.5 million for breathalyzer test replacements, and a $2 million increase in secondary road patrol grants.   

The budget also provides $16 million for 911 system upgrades and $5 million to support local efforts to expand recruitment, improve training, and provide additional professional development to first responders.  

Funding is also provided to improve and enhance technology systems across state government with $17.5 million in increased funding for the state's information technology investment fund. Another $20 million is provided to protect state information technology systems from advanced persistent cyber threats to help ensure data doesn't get into the wrong hands.  

A two percent increase is provided for statutory revenue sharing payments to cities, villages, townships, and counties, and Constitutional Revenue Sharing is adjusted to reflect higher-than-expected sales tax revenues due to Michigan's strong economic recovery. This is an increase of $71 million to local communities across the state to help fund police, fire and public safety. 

 The budget will also deposit $500 million into the Budget Stabilization Fund, bringing the total fund balance to nearly $1.4 billion, representing the largest rainy day fund balance in state history.   

Fed Chair Plots Course in Short Term and Discusses Impact of Supply Chain on Inflation (Building Ideas Into Theory)

One of the best ways to understand national policy and investment community direction is to watch the actions of the Federal Reserve and the policies they set forth. Much of what they do is based on analysis and forecasting of markets to determine which policies are going to help the nation reach its economic and fiscal potential. Economics can be complex and full of lots of different formulas (I tried a few....) but there is also some good old fashion management technique/experience in the process of forming guidance for the rest of the nation (Remember that numbers are fictitious by nature but we put meaning to them as units of actual something in our environment such as employment opportunities, money availability, etc...that anchor back to the beginning of trade and barter systems. These numbers represent environmental/actual experiences and activities and thus valid calculations can project out with relative accuracy what would happen to real activities in the market; assuming no nonlinear events occur. They are calculated forecasts based on past research into historical economic data. Thus, metrics are only as good as the knowledge and awareness of "real" activities on the ground and that takes an experienced group at the very top to ferret out a workable number. Thus, fictitious calculations meet with subjective experience and social negotiation to create a magic interest rate number! ðŸ§™ .....and that is necessary to model the market and encourage private investment to follow suit. Market management is partly base on the large influence of Federal Money and the guidance banks/investors need to set their course in alignment with those policy changes.💨). There is a careful analysis the Federal Reserve does before setting a rate that will influence lending and investment in the economy and in turn what you might pay on your credit card bills. (BBC Fed Interest Rate Explanation). 

Supply Chain Bottlenecks:

Federal Chair Jerome Powell stated GDP increased 6.4% over the first half of the year and forecasts a lower second half of the year. Inflation is expected to be high in the short run and then moderate a few months down the road (I think he means a few months). Some inflationary pressures are related to bottlenecks in the global supply chain that is limiting short-term supply that pushes product prices upward. (I'm working on some theoretical stuff so I'm trying to relate what the Fed is doing and how my models would be impacted by such changes.) Reducing supply chain risks and costs may mean revamping and shortening those chains (U.S. Can and MX) and making them more adaptable to world/geographical events. Theory of Constraints and Adaptive Supply Chains Environ Events and Manufacturing and Great Lakes Shipping Infrastructure.

Delta County Infrastructure
Start Ups/Invest?
Constraints and bottle necks impact the entire economic system through interruptions in activity in multiple chains. For example, supply constraints and worldwide shortage of semiconductors are making it difficult for car manufacturers to build their vehicles and/or develop the next generation of vehicles. Michigan has a large representation of auto and tech manufacturers whose business models rely on consistent and quick delivery of resources. From a geographic standpoint Michigan is an ideal location for this type of advanced manufacturing and can capitalize on its current strengths such as abundant natural resources, Great Lakes waterways/ports, skilled/intellectual labor, and infrastructure that supports the earlier generations of manufacturing industries (Should be revamped for advanced industries but the basic structure is there. Connecting people to the "net" and building high innovative clusters can be helpful in fostering faster development.). Some of our current supply chain difficulties rest in our previous trends of moving development of key economic engines overseas leaving us in a more difficult position today in supplying our own essential needs. Of course, we can build back relatively quickly by putting innovative advanced next generation technologies at the forefront of our fiscal consciousness through business-government policy collaboration that draws together entrepreneurs, companies, ideas and resources in the same time and space. 

One of the best ways to gain a more detailed understanding of what Fed Chair Powell states is by reading 'Transcript of Chair Powell’s Press Conference Opening Statement September 22, 2021'.

Stock Reaction to News


Investors and executives watch Fed activities closely to determine what their next step should be and where the most solid returns lay. An article by Jonathan Ponciano entitled, 'Stocks Rally After Fed Sticks To $120 Billion Monthly Stimulus' provides a solid analysis of how stocks and investment reacted to Federal Chair Jerome's Powell's Press Release 09-22-21.  Stocks rallied as investor fears of a government policy change may impact the current investment markets. The Federal Open Market Committee Press Release indicated they will maintain A low interest 0% and 0.25% rate will keep investments (The Fed has some info on Lift Off and Natural Interest Rate. I think that is what he is referring to.🤷)

Ethics and Fed Discussion

Another topic that came out of the meeting was ethics and some questionable trade by key Fed officials. Integrity throughout the entire socio-political spectrum is important and maintaining trust (which is what the dollar is built on.) is what keeps the entire system open to positive economic trajectories. There also some discussion on the potential for new/updated rules of senior Federal Officials and trades that may/could be impacted by their policy decisions.🙅 For more information on those trades and who you may want to read Thomas Franck's article, 'The Fed will change trading rules for officials to keep public’s trust after controversy, Powell says'  

Regulations:

Regulations and Long Term Strategy

Regulations are often opposed by business but they are a necessary evil to ensure that business and community members are working toward the same goals and considering wider stakeholders in their decisions. At the same time, if not thought out well it can limit the business climate. It is important to review legislation regularly, streamline when helpful, and either remove or revamp that which is hampering business and national development (Keeping in mind the ultimate stakeholders the people.). We need regulations but we need them to foster ethical practices in business as well ensure the interests of wider stakeholders are considered in a way that still enhances business investment and development. (It is important that when our business and government act in ethical ways the overall benefits to society and to their growth prospects increase. Research has supported, which I'm not going to dig out now zzzz, that corruption/intentional mismanagement leads to decline for business and government. Being transparent and honest and is important and I think Federal Chair Powell is doing that and has made a genuine commitment to maintaining that public trust.  Reducing Ineffective Legislation and "Honest" Govt. )   

Side note:

The Working Economic Hub

In my generic hub-cluster map we would find that the supply chain would limit some of the availability of natural resources. Lower interest rates would also encourage investment and borrowing to start businesses within the Delta County Model and reverse the capital outflow per World Report FDI. Its really generic and could go into significant depth to all of the transactions that would occur but it sort of looks like that. Federal policy matched with tax benefits for R&D within these clusters might be something interesting to explore and create an investment hedge against outflows and international market disruptions while at the same time improving business infrastructure in the U.S.. Venture Adventure Cap and Attracting Start-Up Firms, 1920's Again Morgan Stanley (Or Other) Pro Social Invest, "Connect" UP, Small Business Backbone, Economic Structure Synergy,  Unfinished Transactional Cluster Theory In theory you want to try and "wrap the bow" making the theory self contained. I'm kind of working on connecting the dots from material extraction through a complex chain of "most likely" events that leads to a "most likely" outcome. 😩 Yikes....self reflection.....I need more exciting pursuits. Still haven't ruled out Mount Everest. 

Sorry for spelling and grammar errors....its a blog not an academic paper. 

(This is copied cut and past. but you may review the actual release HERE

The Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum employment and price stability goals.

With progress on vaccinations and strong policy support, indicators of economic activity and employment have continued to strengthen. The sectors most adversely affected by the pandemic have improved in recent months, but the rise in COVID-19 cases has slowed their recovery. Inflation is elevated, largely reflecting transitory factors. Overall financial conditions remain accommodative, in part reflecting policy measures to support the economy and the flow of credit to U.S. households and businesses.

The path of the economy continues to depend on the course of the virus. Progress on vaccinations will likely continue to reduce the effects of the public health crisis on the economy, but risks to the economic outlook remain.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. With inflation having run persistently below this longer-run goal, the Committee will aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time so that inflation averages 2 percent over time and longer‑term inflation expectations remain well anchored at 2 percent. The Committee expects to maintain an accommodative stance of monetary policy until these outcomes are achieved. The Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and expects it will be appropriate to maintain this target range until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the Committee's assessments of maximum employment and inflation has risen to 2 percent and is on track to moderately exceed 2 percent for some time. Last December, the Committee indicated that it would continue to increase its holdings of Treasury securities by at least $80 billion per month and of agency mortgage‑backed securities by at least $40 billion per month until substantial further progress has been made toward its maximum employment and price stability goals. Since then, the economy has made progress toward these goals. If progress continues broadly as expected, the Committee judges that a moderation in the pace of asset purchases may soon be warranted. These asset purchases help foster smooth market functioning and accommodative financial conditions, thereby supporting the flow of credit to households and businesses.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on public health, labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Thomas I. Barkin; Raphael W. Bostic; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; Richard H. Clarida; Mary C. Daly; Charles L. Evans; Randal K. Quarles; and Christopher J. Waller.

Implementation Note issued September 22, 2021

Wednesday, September 22, 2021

JP Morgan 2021 Mid Year Investment Outlook-Market Direction

Government, Investments, Entrepreneurship
and Manufacturing as a Growth Strategy in
Digital Economy.
The markets are what greases our economic machinery. Reviewing reports from big investment banks like JP.Morgan helps us get an idea of what the markets are going to look like in the near future. I'm spending more time exploring different stocks and options within the global market to determine growth value and possible unexplored avenues of investment and development (i.e. trends and cluster development to meet those future needs. Delta County, MI as my working model.). That also doesn't include watching how stocks prices and global markets react to government decisions and natural phenomenon (There is always underlining logic/mechanics to animal spirits and even to seemingly random events.)

The report JP Morgan 2021 Mid Year Investment Outlook provides three things investors should look at...

1) Which markets are more geared toward the global recovery?, 

2) Which markets are more geared toward the next cycle’s themes, like inflation, technology and the rise of the EM middle class? and  

3) Where is the valuation starting point most favorable for the recovery and expansion ahead?

Some of the sectors that are most likely to grow are also considered hedges against inflation. They indicate cyclical sectors like energy, financials, industrials and materials are exposed to improvements in the real economy (Some of these might fit within my model DC Multi-Cluster). Hedging helps protect investors if purchasing power decreases through inflation (Disclaimer...I'm not giving investment advice...go talk to your broker. I'm looking more to understand some market issues but some of the information may be value to readers and people who study/follow business.) You can look at a dated report on long-term hedging strategies.


Tuesday, September 21, 2021

Developing Higher Education Systems that Discover and Enhance Latent 'Gifted" Talent

We are in a new era that has long left behind the chalk boards and pull down maps we so fondly remember learning from in classrooms without air conditioning (Go back further and people sat under trees.🌲🌳🌴). We are now in a time when virtual education has rises and will someday likely be parallel to traditional schools (at least for some degrees. STEM education will likely still need campus for the "hard" sciences. That also doesn't discount some of the benefits of being on ground and socialized into the educational system. Proximity and face-to-face is a rich environmental and channel expansion great for learning. What we can say is that education/communication is not limited to physicality but can be expanded beyond that.) What the era of big data allows is for the discovery and fostering of those with latent gifted potentials to better ensure they move to actualized performance for the benefit of themselves and their nation (i.e. an alternative form of service). 

This isn't about elitism as there is a certain percentage of the population that will have these traits and they don't get to select them or opt out of them making them both an enhancement and at times a disability due novelty and lack of mentors (Sometimes minorities of minorities with limited self-awareness.). There are young college students with unexplored latent multiple intelligences that could be enhance not only for their personal development, community development but even national development. (or perhaps a rare rare few with multiple Gardner's Intelligences and who have mastered their environments to reach the Debrodski's 5th Development Level through their Overexcitabilities. This is all pretty hypothetical when you reach this level because of a lack of examples and being in an era where people didn't understand the concepts nor did the unpublished geniuses leave marks of their behaviors.  From a controversial product of his time perspective Galton in 'Hereditary Genius' 1869 or came up with the idea of how genetics can play a part. He unfortunately didn't understand perfectly the nature of biology and how similar strains run through every race and thus there is no such thing as an "inferior race". I think in the future further DNA testing will defunct those outdate notions among the "learned" in society. Galton was right on family hereditary issues but failed to understand environmental factors and why certain eras and societies "documented" more genius. Pushing our best and brightest into unchallenged lives of mediocracy is a wasted national resource and unfair to them. As a nation we haven't focused on developing our "out of the bell curve" minorities (of any background) and instead leave gifted programs for the well-to-do school districts for students that get high grades on standardized tests but aren't necessarily gifted with latent underdeveloped potentials. No matter the race, religion, gender when we find high potential gifted students we should consider opening the doors to personal and national development through better online/ground discovery. "Giftedness" moves beyond IQ into the other intelligences but you can get a glimpse of how environment can impact development in exploratory learning.). 

(Heyden) Problem Solving

One of the biggest differences is the ability to take in more information through sensory processing that allows for increasingly complex thinking (Less black/white dualistic heuristics.). Additional information creates precocious development that isn't always easy for people to see or understand leading to all types of judgements and confusions. Because of heightened sensory information they are able to take in additional information that others usually filter out and/or don't process leading to the development of internal cognitive models of their world through what is termed the "Eagle Eye" (We all do this naturally but some build their own models versus primarily borrowing models/explanations making them a wellspring of new ideas that can lead to successful businesses and/or new discoveries; maybe both.)

The Director Francis Heylighen of ECCO - Evolution, Complexity and Cognition research group from Vrije Universiteit Brussel states, "Giftedness, the potential for exceptional achievement, is characterized by high intelligence and creativity. Gifted people exhibit a complex of cognitive, perceptual, emotional, motivational and social traits......" (Heylighen, 2006 para 1).

"Flow" of Performance (Heyden)

Online education offers new opportunities to understand, select and enhance abilities through the development of learning environments that allows students to self explore and in turn develop fields of interest through their natural interests and overcoming staged challenges. That will require the ability to uncover the uniqueness of problem solving, more variability in the line of development, and opportunities to explore particular topics that may have merit thereby giving some sense of direction when they leave. That can come about through the connecting of industry needed skills/competencies to every increasing difficulties through catered educational development and greater awareness through self assessments (All of course possible in the online and offline world.)

Galton stated, "In conclusion I wish again to emphasis the fact that the improvement of the natural gifts of future generations of the human race is largely, though indirectly, under our control. We may not be able to originate, but we can guide."

Heylighen, F. (2006). Characteristics and Problems of the Gifted: neural propagation depth and flow motivation as a model of intelligence and creativity. (1 ed.) Brussels: ECCO Working Papers. Brussel. http://pespmc1.vub.ac.be/Papers/GiftednessModel.pdf


Bill to Honor Navy Corpsman Steve Andrews Passes House

It appears H.R. 1281 to honor Steve Andrews passes House of Representatives. Its a straight forward bill designed to honor the life of a a valued community member in Northern Michigan's 106 District . You can read the actual document on Congresses webpage here. Who is Steve Andrews? I looked him up and came across an interesting article Petoskey News that outlines his life as Navy Medic that saved countless lives and was awarded the Navy Commendation Medal and Purple Heart. After service he/wife started Sturgeon River Pottery, supported teams and artists in the area. 

What we find is that Steve Andrews served his country and then served his community and is an example for many of us to follow. This is why naming and honoring helps us remember those did well and gave honor to themselves and country. Yet it does more...it also provides the next generation with a social learning opportunity through role modeling.

Biden Speaks on Economy (09-16-21) Taxes, Business, and Community

A speech from President Biden a few days ago on the economy that I missed that seems interesting from a policy standpoint. I'm not going to comment on much other then on the general concept of tax reform, business balance, and sense of community/national orientation. What I can say is I believe there may be other ways of designing taxes, outside of our norms that may make more sense in a global digital economy (Here is a calibrated tax plan I'm thinking about but isn't yet fully vetted.). In this case, the President is discussing more of the issue of imbalances between corporate taxes and middle class taxes and then leads into a few more concepts.

There should be a balance between the needs of small, medium and large businesses to create a resilient economy where the "mix" strengthens the entire system (opportunity, innovation, business diversity). When there are different types of businesses run by lots of different people of different backgrounds we have a more natural way to bring people into full economic engagement, speed up innovation as through knowledge transference, and develop stronger global PR presence as THE country where opportunities are present (...and with universalizing our core American values people know they can trust us to stand by those principles creating greater trust in the general American system that creates more opportunities for economic international growth.)

I can also say that I agree on the concept of corporations and the American people needing to create a sense of community. Social and business connections are important in helping executives feel connected to hardworking people and in turn seek to help their communities develop and flourish. The rest of the arguments I will leave for our political structure to agree, disagree, etc... with. (It may be possible to think of essential arguments and find similarities between the different political ideologies that leads to new ways of reworking those experiences/beliefs to find a pathway that appeals to the most stakeholders; business and people of my primary concern.)

Monday, September 20, 2021

China Evergrande Group Failure-Causes and Concerns

A debate has risen on what happens when a large Chinese real estate/lending (real estate is about lending, appreciation, and rent) company fails in the post-Covid global market. We may be seeing a default with stock sell offs at China Evergrande Group that could indicate its on the brink of insolvency. The company appears to be overleveraged and unable to be able to pay its debts (its crashing on itself from a lack of liquidity and complexity). Fox News's article, 'China's Evergrande: What to know' and Bloomberg's 'America’s Corporate Bond Binge Interrupted by Evergrande Tumult' offer some insight into why Evergrande might fail and its implications for world markets if it does (The news  appears to show that there was a growing problem for at least the past year reaching back perhaps 10 years.). 

If we look at examples in history we will find that very large bedrock real estate/financial institutions that fail can have an impact on the overall stability of other companies within the housing/finance sector and other sectors that hold debt and rely on those services (i.e. contractors). Large defaults can sometimes lead to other associated defaults of suppliers, debt holders, associated businesses following similar strategies, etc... down the economic vine (If you traced companies contracts, debt holdings, executive connections, physical/virtual holdings, etc. you might be able to determine which company(s) might also wobble or fall and in turn what sectors. Theoretically anyway as such information isn't always available. I didn't actually look in this case because its not really the point. It could also show too close a connection between Chinese government officials and corporate executives that didn't allow for proper course correction when it became an issue earlier. Rigidity of strategy, even when its not in the best interest of the company, its shareholders, and public stakeholders could indicate  that there are unintended others are realizing the benefits. It will be interesting to see if Chinese officials will probe if/when a massive default occurs and if that info will be public and could that something new. I'm curious how they handle that differently then how we handled Lehman Brothers.) It is believed that the U.S. is somewhat shielded from the brunt of the immediate aftereffects but what happens with China may be something a little different and we can wait and see. 

What will be interesting to see is how the same strategy used over and over moves into a downward trajectory (a leverage trap they couldn't get out of) and if such large defaults limit/adjust Chinese expansion strategies in the short run because of other financing issues. China Evergrande is an interesting case to watch and see why they may have used the wrong strategy way too long, the market has shifted under their feet, or could it be a hint China itself is struggling with creating net positive/equilibrium because of a COVID-Trade War-Expenditure-Market imbalances. If you read the Harvard Business Review's 'Seven Ways to Fail Big' discussing large American companies that have failed, they often do so in context of improper strategy to market environment indicating potentially other problems that may not be obvious (There is almost always another layer of "Why?"

It does leave me a kind of question to think about, "How could the U.S. put itself in a position to capitalize on certain market voids and ripples that might occur?" In all situations there are different ways to leverage markets. (At least from what I read) 🤔 

White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki Press Briefing (09-20-21)

Keeping up with the news......Watching the press briefings helps us to understand what changes we can expect and some of the problems we are facing as a nation. It also highlights potential strategies forming in real time (I'm thinking more as to the process of strategic decisions when information is ambiguous, the basic assumptions used to make those decisions and what the differences are between the last and present administration. Essentially I just want to understand the process.🤓). No matter who is the president there are lots of unknowns and as things emerge we understand the environment better and in turn create greater awareness potential strategies to put the U.S. in the best economic, social, strategic position. 

Sunday, September 19, 2021

Escanaba City Council Meeting September 16th, 2021 (Granting Permission to Look for Grants)

The meeting was all about grants, possibly hiring grant writers (It is so much work...and detailed work. I did it a couple of times and it went into someone's computer "trash bin" I'm sure. 😭), possible recycling (Green City), rezoning, and housing around Ludington (Good ideas for business, tourism, and senior/young housing that helps the downtown be busier and of greater commercial/tax benefit.).  Closed session (hmmmm🤔). You can some additional information on the September 16th, 2021 Meeting Agenda and City Government Meeting Page.

What I can say is that Escanaba City Hall appears to be working together to enhance their community and the benefit to local residents that rely on their decisions.  Government often does best when normal administrative problems are solved closest to the community of stakeholders; there are exceptions for national issues. In this case, it appears that motivated city admin and elected officials are working toward gaining resources and funds to fulfill some of their projects that they believe will improve the city (What any city should be doing.) 

I also like they are rethinking  housing near the downtown area in a way that expands some local strengths. Those cities that have done well attracting younger talent and investment dollars have beautiful downtowns and lots of recreational/community opportunities. Long term viability is based in part on how we manage our downtowns to create a unique branding experience for Escanaba and Delta County as a whole. When downtowns have life in them and businesses are full (and aesthetically pleasing/store fronts. Redeveloping Downtown) they are better able to maintain the value and attract more interest and resources (Delta County Start-Ups). 

The Brookings Institute published some ideas about revitalizing downtown. Some of the concepts apply but not all because they did so from a more urban perspective. What should be remembered is that Escanaba is not Urban but has experienced some decline in population and overreliance on a few anchor businesses. Its downtown could be an attractive tourism and small business mecca (lower m) while the area could attract more small batch manufacturing, distribution, and design companies (Maybe? 🤷) Where its semi isolated nature on the Great Lakes was a detriment in recent times (meaning it was once a resource extraction area for the beginning of the Industrial Age and then sort of went into economic hibernation) it can now work toward being a "hot spot" rural Digital Era town (Its just in theory but if it works....it can be copied in other places. Putting bright people together with local resources and skilled labor can do amazing things.). See Turning Around Downtown: Twelve Steps to Revitalization

As a side note, I never noticed the closed captioning and that is awesome. Maybe its just a button on my YouTube but great.