Friday, September 17, 2021

Politico's Political Cartoons-Its Ok to Chuckle!

Cicero and the Roman Republic
You can learn more about
Cicero's Political Philosophy
In recent years I have been thinking about politics a little more (the good and bad of it) and watching with intent the events as they unfold in the news bringing greater awareness of major political arguments and philosophical positions (Looking for similarities of position we might be able to agree upon.). What I can say is that sometimes its important to laugh at ourselves and take things with a grain of salt (As long as in a positive way.). Politics is sooo soo serious and people are sooo sooo serious about it! Yikes! 🀨Yes, I think there is good reason to be serious about it because we have a responsibility to ensure that we are making the best decisions for the most amount of people. But......

As I watch politics I kind of get the jokes that I didn't get before. Its just that I didn't pay attention enough to the political landscape to truly understand the background that leads to awareness of the intended and implied meanings which make something comical. Let me say this, whether your Democrat or Republican its ok to sort of look at these cartoons and giggle (I'm not picking a side in the cartoons because I think I chuckled a little at most of them. I suspect if your in the public light your going to have a sketch made and some rib poking. I'm a conservative by nature but do try and understand the main arguments. I surround myself with friends and people of different backgrounds to gain better rounded perspective of people and find that much of politics 70% if puffs of smoke while 30% are essential and that is often where key points are flip sides of the same coin for Democrats and Republicans. These are national necessities where big ??? and unknowns/grey areas reside and people fall back on their hidden assumptions and root philosophical beliefs to navigate the "unknown".)

The Nations Cartoonists on the Week of Politics
Politico
According to research conducted in the Department of Physiology at Wayne State University laughter brings about positive emotions and in turn connects communities, improves learning, and improves creativity (As long as people do it in good taste and don't get weird about it! πŸ˜ΆπŸ™‰) (Savage, et. al., 2017). This is likely one reason why having positive environments can be a little fun gets things done! (πŸ§€). People just feel good about life when they laugh a little at things and take a little lighter approach to life; especially judging the choices of others in hindsight. COVID should have taught us a little more about what is and isn't important during our time. We will need to work together to solve some problems in a bi-partisan way. (As a conservative I believe its important to work with people across the isle on important issues that impact everyone. There will naturally be somethings where a more robust debate and discussion must happen to ferret out the the options but this is the messy process of general societal consensus. There are many things we can already agree upon if we break arguments down to their essential points and what we find is often there are additional agreements we didn't see prior.)

Savage B., Lujan, H.,Thipparthi, R. and DiCarlo, S. (2017) Humor, laughter, learning, and health! A brief review. Adv Physiol Educ 41: 341–347. Retrieved 09-17-21 https://journals.physiology.org/doi/pdf/10.1152/advan.00030.2017



US Economy Fastest Growth in 50 Years-Were Not Out of the Woods Yet!

When reports from noteworthy organizations, think tanks and governments come out its important to pay attention because they often have something important to say (ok...most of the time!). The one thing many Americans are thinking about is the economy. As soon as you turn on the news you will find the airwaves filled with economic discussions ranging from "love it" to "hate it". One way to stay in tune with economic activities and the decision making of global financial leadership is to look at some of the big reports that are released/published for public consumption. For example, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published the report, 'UN Trade and Development Report September 15th, 2021' that delves into economic projections of the US and world through 2022 and a hint of what is beyond (I really just wanted to see 2022/2023 transition based on my economic transactional innovative adaptation theory πŸ˜’)

The UN states, "The global economy is expected to bounce back this year with growth of 5.3 per cent, the fastest in nearly five decades....." There are additional details in their post, 'Global economy projected to show fastest growth in 50 years' that indicate the growth may be limited (This is where we may choose something different.) What its saying is that we are having a great year in the US for growth and post-Covid launch 2021. The problem is, according to the report, that it isn't sustained consistently throughout 2022 and specific projections end around 2023 and leaves us at 3.5% slow growth thereafter (Assuming I'm reading it correctly.)

The modeling used to generate the report seems to "point to real growth of global trade in goods and services of 9.5 per cent in 2021". Meaning that we should see more movement of products and services nationally and internationally (i.e. increased consumer activity). Determining who will get the lions share of that (US or China or other) is still in the process of being defined (The US growth was projected at 3% during 2022 and China 5.7% during 2022 meaning that without change we slipping in position. This is where our leadership might think of adjusting strategy and using its resources to strengthen its economic fundamentals for a new era of innovative development; or not?🀷).

UNCTAD also expects that there will be a global slowdown to 3.6% in 2022 as the world income stays below pre-pandemic trends for most countries (I think this would because government stimulus would decline and regular activity would resume at "normal"). Its possible this can happen, but alternatively it is also possible that some countries like the U.S. will still realize significant economic gains while some countries will realize loss making big winners and big loser from the pandemic (Some countries were almost ready to advance into the Digital Era but needed a push to shorten that timeframe 10-15 years.). Furthermore, another option is that by the end of 2022 corporate strategies/changes start functioning optimally 3 years after forced COVID adaptation of their business model (We can change but we must then maximize that change by getting through the learning curve.).

It should be remembered that the report is speculative but is based in real modeling science and is an important part of understanding global trends. Even as a well written report there are a couple of contingencies it doesn't offer and can't put within its framework (Remember limitations and delimitations from research class?πŸ€”πŸ“š) I think of these as curve ball outside changes that can't be easily modeled with standard approaches. They are also known as a "nonlinear events" that can create butterfly type changes we might not normally expect. See Chaos Models in Economics (...not from a modeled system that creates a flat trajectory line but from the real time shifts outside current numbers and somewhat dependent on our actions as a nation. Keep in mind how choices open and close opportunities. A little secret is that despite the complex formulas economics uses it is all really just individual choice added up into one large economic pot. Take a step left and have certain options and take a step right and different options are available. The key is to know when and where to step. To do that we can guess, use economics, or a combination of intuition and economics. "Einsteinian" Economics and Intuition-Science Solutions ) that through normal calculations is general discarded (That is why models are models because they can't calculate for the unknown well.). 

For example, if the U.S. becomes politically more stable and pushes for shared goals and mutual development it can beat economic expectations and spank China as an economic rival (For exampleimprovement in data infrastructure can improve commerce, innovation, manufacturing/production while at the same time make our system more resilient from hacking.) I suspect the end of 2022 will ramp upwards and 2023+ will be another growth year(s) (...again depending on polices implemented, or not implemented, at this time and moment in history. Our ability to make decisions as a nation is important for maximizing outcomes.). 

The report UNCTAD report projects 2022 that U.S. will have a growth rate of 3%. I'm not going to disagree that the total year may be that way but I think the very end of the year will see improvements as organizations are completing their transitions phases and more fully implement long-term digital strategies to be realized in 2023. (It should be remember that the first stage is to adapt to chaos by necessity, 2nd stage is to adjust the business model into a workable form, and the 3rd stage is to capitalize on new business models for longer term strategic growth.)

A curve upward is highly dependent on what our politicians and leaders do now, COVID spread, global markets and our environment (There are so many real life factors to consider that its difficult to project specifics but it is possible to look at societal shifts beyond purely financial metrics and into other national/international metrics that leads to greater environmental awareness and context of change.). Policies best serve the public when they are presented, approved, and implemented during "windows of opportunity" when a strategic choice at the right time, with the right resources, and the most options allows for significant butterfly changes (Think of how a space moves off of its flight path and a little fuel at the right moment can put the spaceship back on track but if we wait too long it becomes increasingly more difficult and costs more resources. Two Risks Post Afghan)

The US and China are in a position to capitalize on the Digital Era by embracing cross infrastructure synergy through the development hard infrastructure (i.e. rail, port, etc...) network development (maximizing communication, efficiencies, Internet and innovation) and human capital (primary, secondary, college, advanced STEM, skilled trades, etc...).  However, the U.S. is in a better position to realize sustainable gains through advancing innovation and manufacturing to corner global markets where China would still be hard pressed to develop that capacity (based on cultural aspects rooted in their ideological assumptions) quickly (They can do it but they would be behind the curve in terms of meeting the US natural entrepreneurial spirit. That is also dependent on whether the U.S. wants to push that spirit among the young and develop an attractive innovative environment where small, medium, and large businesses develop and thrive in a symbiotic way they creates sustainable growth.)

You can learn more about UNCTAD on the UN website. 


Thursday, September 16, 2021

SpaceX Makes History with First Civilian Crew

Considering that SpaceX is around the U.P. and there are lots of interest from government on developing new technologies along this line. What people are clapping for is that the technologies are working well and each stage of the flight is functioning properly leaving open new opportunities to develop the process for commercialized flight  further (Maybe we can root for the Packers and for SpaceX/NASA πŸ˜†) 

Wednesday, September 15, 2021

Presidents and Welcome.US Help to Resettle New Afghans

The very first fist experiences of resettling new Afghan refugees into the U.S. are important one's for socializing these new comers around the hope and dreams that make America unique. Connecting new immigrants to their host country requires a level of socialization Afghans not only with Muslim communities but also with other religious and ethics groups that are a support to their new life and a full understanding of our national beauty (Opportunities to create real hope and change not only for them but also for us.). The U.S is a place where people of all faiths and backgrounds have an opportunity to be part of an effort to work toward something greater. The children of these immigrants will be born and bred American and will support the development of our nation through their own blends of experiences and ideas. 

This "welcoming" is something of a game changer in the way we "connect" people and how we generate an organic and lasting image for our country (That leads to selling of the American brand as a place of opportunity, business and growth to the different peoples of the world. That can also have an impact on our ability to compete diplomatically and economically.). As a nation where we use our unique backgrounds to support our universal American values we will find strength while countries that are narrowly "homogeneous" might struggle to overcome future challenges. When used properly, and oriented around shared American identities, diversity can be a strength that takes the best of each community to make it better for everyone. 

Companies and people interested in support Afghans can contact Welcome.US

"Resettling our new Afghan neighbors requires a whole-country response. That’s why three former Presidents and three former First Ladies have joined us as leaders of this effort – above all, to lift up everyone else involved and remind us that this is our opportunity, in a time of all too much division, for common purpose."

Firefighters Train to "Hot Load" Victims for Emergency Flight Services


Rural places can be tricky for firefighters and first responders because there are lots of miles that must be covered on sometimes very challenging roads. Sometimes its safer and faster to have a helicopter to lift the trauma victim(s) and move them to the nearest qualified hospital. During these types of scenarios, agencies may opt to use an emergency airlift service like Guardian Flight.   

On the ground firefighters at Escanaba Township Vol Fire Department, Bark River Vol. Fire Department, Ensign Vol. Fire Dept and Nahma Fire Department attended training on how to "hot load" injury victims. Most of these guys/gals do so out of the goodness of their hearts and don't receive any compensation. Supporting your local firefighters can go a long way in helping communities stay safe during difficult times. 

FYI....Escanaba Township Vol. Fire Department is still in need of a newer grass/brush/field truck if there are any companies that want to donate. 

If you want to know about some of the national and international fire associations you can check out Michigan's LARA list. As volunteer organizations often suffer with attracting new people and resources one dissertation study suggests volunteer fire departments might consider a stronger recruit and retention approach. (Looking at studies like this helps us better understand how to encourage community participation and engagement in a way that strengthens communities. I would look at multiple studies to tackle a recruitment and retention problem like this. One could also consider other types of volunteer motivations and the personality traits individuals have that push them to spend their time helping when they could be doing other stuff. For example, if we introduced volunteering to highschool students we may encourage the more altruistic students to engage in firefighting/volunteering after graduation.)






Tuesday, September 14, 2021

Bank of America Bullish on Market? Forecasting the Fringe

Economists, business executives, and investors of all types like to see some of the projections that banks offer. These banks conducted their own analysis to help determine future investor strategies. Remember, that banks make money when people trust their advice and are willing to deposit, invest and earn a profit on capital. Watching banks, especially different banks, can give you a benchmark of what institutional investors are thinking as they navigate the fringe (Things that haven't happened yet). Assuming that the metrics they are using are not outdated or misrepresented each uses their own particular (but related) strategies to forecast. Bayesian Time Varying Models

Bank of America Securities offers some discussion on supply chain disruptions (That is also why I think the U.S. should update its infrastructure, shorten its supply chains, and engage in mutual development projects with Canada and Mexico to corner the different price bands of new products to price out products from countries that aren't as innovative and have been relying on low cost copy manufacturing to maintain profits; without calculating other costs to things like environment. Thinking of methods to limit market entry. See Data Monster, Environmental ScanningEssential Pricing Strategy, and Evolutional Game Theory Market Entry  FYI. not that first long sentence is grammatically correct. 😏)

S&P Global offers, an international business intelligence and analytics firm, offers insights offers a Mid Year Banking 2021 Outlook.

...and there is a great place to invest in the U.P. if anyone has any institutional dollars now that forecasts are somewhat higher (Intelligent Investor Optimism Jason Sweig). Delta County Chamber of Commerce

Federal Historic Preservation Funds in the Upper Peninsula and the Great Lakes (Remember the Old and Build the New)

Future Smart Cities

 $750K is doesn't seem like a lot of money today but it can go a long way in supporting historical preservation within the state. Matched with the good will of many of our Historical Societies (Delta County Historical Society as a possible example) can go further than expected. Our past and our future are tied together as we navigate from the systems of the old (i.e. lighthouses and telescopes) to the new (emergency port/communications beacons and next generation satellite supply chain navigation.).

While many of these buildings will move into historical status they also remind us of a time when we were growing, building and thriving as a nation. Perhaps someday we can find some use for those towers to both preserve them but also help strengthen the navigation system by blending the old and the new. Where there is a will there is a way!

(Upper Michigan Source) Federal Historic Preservation Funds To Support Communities Along The Great Lakes (

Escanaba-Gladstone Shipping
Taken from 1st District Congressman Bergman News Letter)

Governor Gretchen Whitmer Tuesday announced that the Michigan State Historic Preservation Office (SHPO) has been awarded a $750,000 Paul Bruhn Historic Revitalization Grant from the National Park Service to support the preservation of historic buildings in rural communities located along the Great Lakes statewide.


The SHPO application received bipartisan Congressional support from members including U.S. Senator Debbie Stabenow (D-MI), U.S. Senator Gary Peters (D-MI), U.S. Representative Jack Bergman (R-MI) and U.S. Representative Fred Upton (R-MI).


Focused on the historic preservation of culturally or archaeologically significant sites throughout the state, Michigan’s State Historic Preservation Office’s main function is to provide technical assistance to local communities in their efforts to identify, evaluate, designate, interpret and protect Michigan’s historic above- and below-ground resources. SHPO also administers an incentives program that includes federal tax credits and pass-through grants available to certified local governments.


Read more here

Monday, September 13, 2021

Capitol Police Arrest Man Near DNC Headquarters-Opportunities to Understand

U.S. Capitol Police arrest White supremist with bayonet and machete hovering around a Democratic National Committee. The guy says that he is "on patrol" but one would wonder if part of a patrol group or on his own. (I suspect if it was truly in sequence it wouldn't be a single person out there doing these things.). This is where mental health and understanding the deeper motives of the person might be of benefit. While these situations are striking they do offer an opportunity to better understanding the underlining mechanics of behavior.

Inside truck.
Deer horns on front of truck indicates
another issue.
Of course we might look at groups the person was involved with, websites, close associates, coworkers and any other historical info that might be relevant. Because this is happening in real time we can also say it can be solid place to double check on intent of associated group members (If not a mental health issue). Once you sort of grab weapons you become dangerous and if associated with others acting in a similar/coordinated fashion you have a potential network of extremists.

Interviewing techniques will be important here. One must not lead but draw the answer by asking relevant and associated questions that can prompt memories and emotional reactions. That in turn can be used to gauge other unexplored avenues and even hidden motivations (Don't be quick to judge emotional reactions...but just take note. Some are not what you think they mean but you do need to look toward association of reactions and biometric responses.)  Biometric Behavior Detection.

When approaching situations you might want to look to understand before judging. Judging can lead to bias in understanding thus its beneficial to just listen and learn to gain a better understanding and foot hold. People tell you all types of things about themselves without actually knowing it. You just need to know what to look for and how that fits within the context of other information. Once the information (evidence) is gathered one can start to make conclusions. We just need to make sure we aren't pre-organizing the information without the ability to reorganize for other theories (rigidity of thought

If your interested in learning about Capitol Police you may checkout their site. They are looking for people who want to serve their country in the careers section. If you ever had interest now might be the time to apply. These are the people who protected us from the risk of a first way of extremism sacking our capitol. 

"The United States Capitol Police (USCP) is a CALEA nationally-accredited, federal law enforcement agency. The USCP safeguards the Congress, its legislative process, Members of Congress, employees, visitors, and facilities from crime, disruption, and terrorism. We protect and secure Congress so it can fulfill its constitutional and legislative responsibilities in a safe, secure, and open environment."

Side note: As a conservative I'm all for healthy debate and encourage that as a method of learning from each other. Silencing and intimidating others through the use of force is not acceptable in any of its forms.



Escanaba Harbor as a Conduit to Tourism and Business Development

 Escanaba hosts an excellent harbor as ideal place to dock your boat and enjoy some downtown time within a short walking/biking distance (Marina has bikes you can rent for free.). Great park, beach, walkways and nearby dining/events turns a boating trip into a total fun experience. Escanaba is one of those places that it is already awesome but certainly could attract new firms and businesses downtown. I've traveled some around the country and this is a forest blanketed small city/town right on the coast that could offer both fun and investment opportunities for business/government stakeholders. 

When investors look at locations like Escanaba they may analyze characteristics like infrastructure (shipping, water, electric, roads, ports, etc...), buildings, skilled labor, government support, crime rates/policing, housing recreation and fun (etc...) to get a big picture of how their business and investment dollars may fit. Availability of information will make a difference in attracting and retaining interest. Availability of Financial Info and  Virtual Capital Communities

You might want to check out the Delta County Chamber of Commerce

Escanaba Harbor
Marina


Saturday, September 11, 2021

President's Discuss 9'11 and Its Impact our National Paths/Choices Going Forward (American Renaissance)

Today is a day of remembrance and while we mourn the loss of so much let us take hope in the future. The post 9'11 level era, and what we have learned from it, is closing and new opportunities to take that knowledge of the world and build something fantastic. A nation ready to learn, grow, develop and integrate its people into a single national vision. 

 You may want to watch the different speeches about this tragic day and where our focus may lay. Each of these presidents has insightful knowledge of the events (part of the job of being a president) and something to say. No doubt we will strive for greatness as a nation by setting our sights over the horizon (next 20 years and into a new Digital Era) and we will navigate that path together as a single people! The time for civility and nation building has begun.  

Current President Joe Biden

 

Former President Donald Trump

Former President Obama reflects 20 Years after September 11th, 2021

Former President George Bush

Side note American Renaissance: As a hypothetical mental puzzle.... Could we turn what we learned over the last 20 years into something that solidifies our national image, universalized global values, and build the very first advance digital era/information age (next gen. manufacturing) nation before China? ok ok hold on before you judge....because this could be a useful method of looking at options and strategies to take where we are today and build back better for tomorrow in a way that enhances human capital and technological innovations (which we will need to overcome future challenges). If nothing else, this is just good fun to think about how innovation and development works on a nano, micro and macro level.....

Ideas are based on a theory on transactional change, human adaptation and development that can lead to the advancement of society (Hegel and Reason). Its possible to move to the next state of economic/social development (i.e. human spirit) but I suspect it would take an awful lot of coordinated focus from different sectors/circles of society to spark the synergy needed to launch an American Renaissance (People from different backgrounds and parties would want to engage in a nation building exercise through mutual self interest. That may require people to move out of their standard mode of thinking and into new ways of thinking. πŸ˜¬ Bounded Rationality Stakeholder Theory )National leadership currently compromises in an amebic fashion but often catering to special interest where a more unified vision of general guidance would be helpful in matching human development with technology development for a more beneficial and prosperous future. (We say generalized because specifics are often situational and designed to put out fires but the overall process is on a pathway to somewhere...the destination/vision.)  

Italian Renaissance Painter Michelangelo's
 "Creation" of Knowledge example/illustration
of creativity and development of man.


If we look back in history we will see China, Europe, and the Islamic Society had at least one Renaissance in their development (that influenced how the world thought.). With environmental changes, matched with emerging technologies and developments in our scientific understanding of our species (macro such as big data or space flight and micro such as DNA mapping and psychological/AI/physical connections. i.e. Descartes Error. ) maybe its our turn? New technologies matched with paradigm shifts in a couple of scientific fields can sometimes create new lines of development across multiple industry sectors through spurts in rapid innovation (Maximizing Intellectual Capital and Intuition and ScienceScientific Breakthroughs, Export Info Diffuse and Firms Intellectual Capital).

(When innovative growth is sustained in a couple of societal sectors it fosters changes in human thought that can lead to the start of a Renaissance. The Renaissance shifts how we understand and live through new levels of awareness and fundamentally different methods of navigating our environmental challenges that leads to more discoveries. Not sure anyone would know where that level is set because it is often seen in historical hindsight when innovation was a much slower process and key indicators like documents were lost to physical depletion. i.e. printing press sharing knowledge that increases transactional changes. i.e.. the re-emergence of new thoughts from the ancient Greek and Islamic Empires led to whole new ways of thinking through an additive and synergistic process by changing the way in which society viewed itself. ).

 Renaissances are created when multiple lines of development (i.e. supply chain, energy sources, clean technology, space flight, better batteries, new education models, government moving online, etc...) converge at a single time in history where heightened interaction and changes in fundamental assumptions occur to overcome challenges in a way that creates more then the sum of their parts (i.e. synergy that amplifies change. For example companies sometimes innovate their environments together but do so on a small scale. Companies in Post Pandemic Digital Economy). Fundamental shifts in new ways of doing things often make elemental adjustments in the ways of functioning in other fields through new knowledge and insight (catalyzing into a Renaissance).

Racing to Innovate Countries
Post COVID Uncharted Territory
Critique of Pure Reason: Space-Time
*Picture is Delta County Sail Boat Races


I'm not an expert on societal shifts but Causes of the Renaissance is kind of cool to read and you can see some similarities with our modern times . This is just a mental exercise to highlight perspective that society is always changing and most of us don't see it until we look back and reflect (We are limited in our perceptual perspective because we don't understand info in real time and how it creates a sequence of events. I'm not trying to be deterministic by discounting randomness, leadership, and the unseen/unknown. ). History is being made now and today. ...perhaps its possible with focused innovation to hit an unseen/emerging developmental target/milestone. DC New Industry ModelDC Subfactors, Global "Connect" UP, Hub Interaction, Sustainable Economic Reinvest, and Cross Structure Synergy.  

As a hypothetical maybe a little more focus on positive change might do us some "home and hearth" good in drawing people to do something meaningful together; instead of focusing on our differences. πŸ‘Œ Having a vision/goal for people to orient their thoughts and behaviors around can adjust developmental trajectories of not only people but also the products we make, use and sell to the world. What is the real difference between the printing press and the Internet anyway? Triangulation of data for social constructivism? Sorry...super philosophical here. I think I'm going to watch some tv or something now. I'm happy someone invented Hulu/Netflix and Amazon πŸ€“πŸ“š

"He who loves practice without theory is like the sailor who boards ship without a rudder and compass and never knows where he may cast." 
Leonardo da Vinci