July 1st Jobs Report-Rising Wages and Maximizing Human Capital

The jobs report is up and that means there is pressure on the labor market to either raise wages or become more productive. Training also will rise as new skills are needed as different types of jobs become available in a digitizing world. We are receiving some economic  benefits today that should prompt us on how to maximize future opportunities through human capital development and advanced technology devices.

What we might see also happening a focus on human capital development where we try and maximize learning and development to impact individual and national performance. The principles that apply to developing individuals should be applied across the board in our society. No company, country or entity functions well when the written, unwritten and natural rules are different (The closer they are aligned the stronger the message).

To obtain the next level of national development will require solving today's problems with a strategic eye for what is next (...putting ourselves in the best position to maximize multiple pathways). We still have serious sociological instability in our society (i.e. the problems from the riots and sacking of the capital don't just go away by clicking our heels like in the Wizard of Oz.). and many of our institutions are not sure what their next step is (Hopefully we will decide on universality but sometimes it seems we are a little checkered in our historic understanding of where and who freedom applies.) 

Our citizens deserve a level playing field where race, ethnicity and religion are not the determining factors in our society of who gets opportunities and who gets put out. I'm talking more about how we turn small gifts of a window of opportunity into a movement to maximize people development (education, legal system, government hiring, etc...)

We are bridled by culture (good and bad) reflected in our institutions that range from entities like higher education to elected leadership. For example, we see our some of our systems (i.e. justice) struggling to update how to create systematic improvements that help the broadest sectors of society (This isn't for or against any movements. It is a statement about transition and its chaos.).

There is an argument to be made for fairness on a moral level as well as the need to develop our human capital environment for further economic development ( Belief creates reality and we have a responsibility to create the best reality we can). If we want to sell the American brand at home and overseas we also need to settle on what the American brand is (hopefully inclusively) and how we support that in our everyday activities (i.e. integration of brand strategy). 

Our environment prompts human capital (access to skill, new inventions, etc...) and that prompts our economy (products, business, etc...). If we don't support fundamental American principles in our governance and institutions we will struggle to maximize the power of belief (on a societal scale).

Its hard for most of our leaders (not race, party or religion specific) to sort of grasp that concept of free (to develop society) because they were raised in their own particular culture (culture is programming of a way to see the world). The decisions and choices our leaders make today determines access to human capital and growth in the future (Time is a stream of choices). Human capital development, good governance and performance are well supported in non-political logic (It does have a logic but its often full of fallacies and improper definitions).

Lets just hope our leadership can take the economic fruit basket offered today and grow an orchard of opportunity for the future (Assuming they can get out of the next generations way by not making decisions for only themselves, their party or their generation. Leadership is about creating a vision that transcends current needs to push group performance forward. We should select our leaders wisely.)

You can see the following information in the July 1st, 2021 Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims:

In the week ending June 26, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 364,000, a decrease of 51,000 from the previous week's revised level. This is the lowest level for initial claims since March 14, 2020 when it was 256,000. The previous week's level was revised up by 4,000 from 411,000 to 415,000. The 4-week moving average was 392,750, a decrease of 6,000 from the previous week's revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since March 14, 2020 when it was 225,500. The previous week's average was revised up by 1,000 from 397,750 to 398,750. 

Hiking Daves River

Days River is located in Delta County. Well groomed and includes, hiking, biking and ATV. There are separate paths for ATV and everyone else.

Beware of the "Selfish"-Hiring and Friendships

Each person holds the wants and needs that drive them to engage (or not) in activities that fulfill those urges. Often they are deeply biologically driven but how these needs are fulfilled is psychological (picking the tools) and social in orientation (prompting them to acceptable paths). Whether you are hiring a new employee or meeting new friends the personality has a lot to do with the benefits of certain social interactions.

Let us take this from a customers stand point. The little things count! The enthusiasm and demeanor of the customer service representative is going to make all the difference in how that customer feels. If a person is selfish it often comes through during the interaction no matter how polite the interaction. 

What does that mean?

It means that language moves beyond what is being said and includes contextual information as well as non-verbal cues. People who are selfish have programmed their brains (environmental and biological) to think of their advantage and also their disadvantage. Its hard to fake it for long!

Much of what we learn from each other we don't even know. An anticipatory effect often occurs where people are willing to trade of certain things in order to be accepted and liked as well as avoid disapproval. See Anticipatory Effect. 

People who are selfish will be giving out disapproval cues all the time and that makes them difficult to deal with over a long period. They will simply "rub" people the wrong way and that is unlikely to go away the more you know the person (one of the reasons why you cut toxic ties).

Selfishness is a trade of pro and anti social behavior. People who are pro social want to help others and in turn receive a level of help from others (helping the herd). Anti-social behavior is about helping oneself and only being nice enough to receive the benefits of that (profiting from the herd). 

Whether you are hiring a new employee and or hanging out with a new friend avoid those who are selfish. They have very little to offer in terms of reciprocal benefits and often impact the vibe of groups through their anticipatory effects. Developing strong cultures is the process of adding pro social members and removing those who show themselves to be selfish (....or perhaps that is selfish too? 🤷).  

Infrastructure and "Global Awareness" of U.S. Business Environment Creates "Net Positives" for Economy

Lawmakers did a good thing by passing a bi-partisan infrastructure plan to increase the economy and improve upon the overall development our our economic platforms. More bi-partisan activities will be needed at some point as our system becomes increasingly digitizes and legislation/government seeks to catch up to the changes (Yep! The digital world doesn't fit well into prior systems). When we pass solid legislation we create net positives where business interests, labor needs, and government wins through increased economic activity. 

It should be remembered that one of the benefits of infrastructure investments is that it increases efficiency of transactions for commerce and improves transference of ideas. For example, having a new port may allow for stronger import/export servicing of Great Lakes industries improves the cost/profitability of shipping as well as raises the prospects of future commerce in the region (as other companies seek to compete).  See Delta County Shipping.

Our government and business leaders will want to create as many net positives as possible as we seek to navigate a new Information Era (think digital renaissance). Government shouldn't be thought of as spending but as the management of a larger economic system where resources (inputs and outputs) must be managed in a way that the system continues to improve.

This is one of the reasons why I support developing clusters where specific industries must innovate to solve problems and in turn create larger net positives throughout the economic supply chain (beyond the initial products they develop). Locating the R&D of companies into the same proximal physical and digital space allows for stronger innovation of those participating industries because they share resources (i.e. banking, resources, information, ideas, etc...) See Transactional Cluster Theory.

(I'm starting to like CNBC because they put some solid articles together that seem to contain beneficial information. No need to rewrite. The only thing I will say is it would be nice if news agencies linked out to the actual government reports Yikes! I'm lazy like a lot of people 🤯). See CNBC Infrastructure Article.

What you do notice is that we don't have great metrics on how infrastructure improves business functioning and that in turn creates other things like taxes (that pays for improving our environment, roads, public health, etc...). Its not that we don't have the ability to calculate it but that government is often behind the 8 ball on emerging statistical systems. If we can't measure more accurately we won't know how much should be funneled back into the system (i.e. Great Lakes, infrastructure, etc...) to keep them developing and growing so the next generation has even more value (versus the old model of depleting resources. We are out of the "conquer the wilderness" mindset and should look to improving our environment, increasing performance/efficiency and what is beyond our atmosphere.) See Perpetual Sustainable Development Model.

Key Points from the Wharton's School of Business publication 'BIPARTISAN SENATE INFRASTRUCTURE DEAL: BUDGETARY AND ECONOMIC EFFECTS'

• A bipartisan group of senators reached agreement with the White House on $1.2 trillion in infrastructure spending, representing a $579 billion increase from the current policy baseline.
  
  

• That new spending would be financed with a mix of additional deficits (relative to current policy), user fees, and other tax provisions.
  
  

• PWBM estimates that the proposal would decrease debt by 0.9 percent and increase output by 0.1 percent in 2050.

There is podcast one of the researchers did on the topic. See Podcast Economics

You may also take a look at White House Infrastructure Fact Sheet.

Speed Walking and Fountains in Gladstone

If your a busy business person or creative executive its important  to find ways to maintain your health. Lethargy and work-life imbalance does impact performance and in turn your overall prospects (Ask any older person and they will tell you.). Our brains function best when we have adequate blood/oxygen supply and no major ailments to distract our focus. In my case, I still enjoy martial arts and boxing so I try and turn my speed walking  into HIIT type program to integrate muscle building sprints. 

This picture is the park in Gladstone Michigan.

Consumer Confidence Up in June (21') Indicating Optimism and Purchasing Power

Consumer confidence improves again in June following a positive trend over the last four months. The index works off a couple of different assessments. The Present Situation Index rose from 148.7 to 157.7 and is a measurement of consumers' assessment of current business and labor market conditions. The Expectations Index which is a shorter term assessment of labor, income, and business rose to 107.0, up from 100.9 the prior month. 

You can read the publishing from The Conference Board and their findings on new business applications. See Consumer Confidence June. The think tank has some excellent charts and graphs for you to review. ( Side note: They appear copywrite so I didn't want to share without permission. The purpose is to sum up complex information very quickly for readers. That is especially important for executives that are bombarded by information everyday.). 

Consumer confidence is about how people feel and is a little more grass roots in its evaluation than some of the other index. Since all economic behavior is human behavior at its root, it makes sense to understand how and what people are thinking in terms of near and mid term future. The animal spirts relate to how we subjectively feel and our ability to satiate those feelings with resources.

Consumer optimism leads to increased spending. When spending is on U.S. products (as defined as having an HQ and significant production operations in the U.S.) we improve those markets. Older economic theories became stressed because they were often based on an unwritten logic that money would stay in a country in a sticky/static way but globalization has changed those assumptions (It is possible that why we lost some of our power because relied on antiquated models that were outstripped in the past few decades by unknown digital innovation.)The digital economy changed these assumptions even further leading to additional gaps between old models and actual activities (I don't know. Maybe? 🤷).

(Hopefully we buy more American and attract more companies to relocate their HQ to the U.S.. A buy American movement matched with a calibrated tax structure might encourage more businesses to move to the U.S. and utilize the American consumer spending power to replenish depleted tax coffers from sales tax, employment tax, and corporate taxes. ...thinking out loud. 🤔)

How COVID Has Improved New Business Start Ups

While Covid was an difficult challenges for the U.S. it also offers a few opportunities to reset the economic system and give access to business opportunities to a wider group of Americans. Some are frustrated by a growing gap between the rich and poor and lack of access to wealth and opportunity. This is even more apparent in minority communities hit hard by the pandemic. This may be an opportunity to rese the economic system to something more sustainable.

One of the ways to equalize income and wealth is a bottom up approach where small businesses and old fashion entrepreneurship work to create opportunities and business ownership across the country. This would have positive implications for the economy, tax revenue, and ensuring people have access to capital that can help to level the growing income equality gap. 

Government should balance the need of small, medium, and large businesses without passing laws that skew legislation and create economic instability. Too many large corporations and we lack innovation 15 years down and often fight the tax implications when companies ditch the people who helped build them and move overseas to shave a few fractions of more wealth. Our economy grows best when there is a fountain of new businesses (some will succeed, some fail, for self sufficiency) that regenerate the system in a wider distributed manner. 

An article entitled "What America's Startup Boom Could Mean For The Economy" provides a solid explanation. You can read about the ideas the researcher John Haltiwanger from the National Bureau of Economic Research in his working paper (meaning its not finished but some information is important to share) on new business applications. 

"Nonstore Retail (alone accounting for 33% of the surge), Personal Services, Professional, Scientific and Technical Services, Administrative and Support Services, Truck Transportation, 23 Fazio et al. (2021) offer some evidence in support of this hypothesis. 21 and Accommodation and Food Services," (Haltiwanger, 2021, pg 20.)

The author talks about 3 Digit industries so you might need a little more info. See 3 Digit Classification. What we see is that business applications are rising and while the paper doesn't necessarily indicate this that there may be a future boom coming as some of these businesses become successful and develop new opportunities (whether hiring employees or simply as cottage businesses).

Our economic system has essentially turned increasingly oriented toward Digital GDP (See Digital GDP and Economic Platforms)  and that will change how wealth is generated and who can generate it. As access to capital changes there may be new opportunities for those who were traditionally locked out to the means of capital through the formation of businesses. All paradigm changes impact wealth distribution making it a great time in history for the U.S. to focus on becoming and economic powerhouse in the new digital world. You can read my rough working paper at Economic Clusters

Haltiwanger, J. (June, 2021). Entrepreneurship during the Covid-19 Evidence from the business formation statistics. National Bureau of Economic Research. (Working Paper). Retrieved nber.org

Mouth of Rapid River Michigan

 Near Rapid River boat launch you will find a place not too far from town but looks like you just jumped back into another world. For those who live in the city it only takes about 20 minutes drive (less time than going to the grocery store). 

In my case I am using an inflatable dinghy that should have long sunk. Yet...I'm here so that is what is important. 

Talked to an "old timer" that was fishing and he was sharing how they didn't have reels when he was young. You had a 12' pole and a 12" line. That was it!

He also said that it used to be easier to catch fish and they lower the catch limit because of that depletion. Making sure we protect our environment may help these fish come back. 

Everyone in the world wants fish and the Great Lakes is a very large system for breading native species. It might be possible with time and sustainable commerce to ensure part of the profits/revenue derived from Great Lakes goes back it improving the lakes and the native species. 

That would require a level of systems thinking and how net positives in large scale activities (i.e. commerce on the Great Lakes) can be used to increase the natural value (tourism, fishing, management, and infrastructure). 

Poor video. I can actually create better ones but its time consuming so....cheap and easy!

The Danger of Group Think In Decision Making

Sometimes I wonder how people can willingly engage in illegal and corrupt activities without thinking about the moral rights and wrongs of their activities. We see this in business and in social settings where a "culture of corruption" that leads people down very dark paths. It is hard for people to think about their choices when the people around them confirm the "truths" of a situation. 

I suspect that human nature is to follow. We are herd animals, not very different from our cousins, that take our cues from others. Such herds are likely led by more dominant members that set the tone for everyone. If they are willing to engage in such activities it is likely that others will follow. 

One study states the dangers of group think and how it can cultivate homogenous behaviors, "...groupthink foster criminal activity by cultivating homogeneous behavior, conformity, resemblance, shared values and identical ways of thinking across and within firms. This herd behavior can be regarded as one of the explanations for the pervasiveness of criminal and unethical behavior in the corporate world, the consequences of which could be devastating." (See Criminogenic Isomorphism and Groupthink)

Each group develops their own symbols and values that helps them identify and navigate their environment. If the expectation is to engage in illegal activities most people will succumb to internal pressures that lead them to engage in behaviors that are not appropriate. 

Likely, as group members are similar in characteristics, background, and beliefs they are also likely to feel pressures to "conform" to poor values. Its very hard for people from homogenous backgrounds to see the perspectives of others and in turn are limited in their capacity to step out of herd mentality. 

Herd "group think" can be dangerous because at the very top it can impact options (i.e. Cuban Missile Crisis, Enron, Hate Groups) and choices based on pushing very specific ways of doing things. People don't know there was an issue until after the problem has occurred because entire groups begin to conform and confirm a group oriented message without getting "out of the box".

In business I think it is wise to find people who can work with others but at the same time can bring forward differences of opinion in a helpful way. That would mean creating cultures that have this healthy balance of the ability to work and think along similar lines but also break that mold when it is necessary. Healthy and empowered employees have options that herd "followers" do not. 

Diving in Quarry -Bass Hot Spot

Diving is slowly starting to become a popular activity in the UP.  

In this case we dived a private quarry stocked with Bass