Experts Predict Economic Expansion for 2015 and 2016

Experts predict a few more strong laps around this race track we call our economy. Fifty forecasting experts with the National Association of Business Economics (NABE) believe the U.S. economy will grow at a rapid pace over the next two years. They suspect Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will increase on average 3.1% in 2015 and 2.9% in 2016.  

Few can complain about the potential win-win situation brewing that will reward businesses with higher sales and better employment opportunities for job seekers. Experts believe the economy will improve to a point where unemployment dips under 5% by the end of 2016.

The advantages of polling experts can help gauge the overall likelihood of success for the nation. These economic gurus have become successful in their fields and have opinions on economic growth and development. Funneling their opinions into useful metrics helps see that the average opinion is positive.

Each expert sifts the questionnaire information through their personal experiences, judgments and opinions to come to a conclusion about each question. These conclusions are averaged to get the statistics seen above. The more people involved in the forecast the greater the validity of the results.

Positive news and accurate information often draws investment from interested stakeholders that desire to improve their profit margins.  For example, if you own a business that is likely to benefit from a growing economy and are holding onto cash the positive news may prompt additional investment. This can in turn generate more employment; 250,000 per month worth.

Growing economies, lower unemployment, higher investment, and sustainable spending are positive news for any government that seeks to place in the finals of racing nations.  That doesn’t mean any of this will come to pass but that industry experts believe it is possible and perhaps even likely. If you are a business investor or a person seeking to gain from employment opportunities these numbers should be refreshing.

http://nabe.com/NABE_Outlook_March_2015

Is Europe Shrinking or Growing?

According to a European data analytics company called Markit Economics, Europe is still growing despite poor projections. Based upon a survey of purchasing managers and their prospects throughout 18 nations in Europe, their index of economic growth moved upward from 51.1 to 51.7 showing a higher rate of growth than previous expect. Some economists predicted a slight contraction but improvement in the market appears to have lowered the pressure by improving the situation.

The study also shows that core countries like Germany and France are experiencing slower growth and waning job creation while those countries on the periphery are doing better. Combined Europe has a moderate rate of growth somewhere around .2 percent showing near stagnation. Such slow rates of growth give European officials pause in deciding their next course of action. 

Selling prices for manufacturing and services is slowing.  Stagnating wages, lower oil prices, and lower demand are putting downward pressure on production costs. Depending on how this plays out it could lead to greater exports or hints of deflation. Much of it depends on how administrators respond to growing challenges.

One thing for sure European officials are not likely to push for further stimulus anytime soon. The last round of stimulus had only a moderate impact, leaving countries like Japan and Greece in heavy debt, while still leaving many wonder what the long-term advantages were. The Economist put together a fairly strong analysis of the total costs when countries soared in debt topping 74% to 101%of GDP.

The problem with Europe's economy is that are tied to a global slowdown and have already spent a significant amount or resources on past stimulus. They simply can't afford to do another round now without serious consequences. Some of the nations seem to be doing well while anchor countries suffer to improve their positions. Understanding whether Europe is growing or shrinking might depend on whether you are the type who sees the grass half full or half empty.

Is GDP the Best Measurement of Economic Growth?

Numbers are only representations of ideal states and are in and of themselves subjective to what they measure. A paper by Stow & Stow (2013) discusses some of the fallacies of relying too heavily on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) without considering the deeper meaning of the numbers. Fallacies of judgment can occur when governments adjust their economy to improve upon GDP but don’t look at actual economic activity.

GDP is calculated by adding =C+I+G+NX. Any improvement in consumption (C), Investment (I), Government Spending (G) and Net Exports (NX) would result in an improvement in overall GDP. The numbers could be misleading in the long run and lead to poor policies decisions.

When consumers spend more money they are not necessarily improving total wealth of the nation even though GDP rises. They are simply spending their money, dwindling their savings, buying now instead of investing later, and taking on debt. They may be encouraging organizational profits but not exclusively the wealth of the nation as an entire economic system. 

A similar fallacy can be found in government spending where an increase in expenditures can raise GDP numbers that don’t actually reflect national growth. Spending more today has obvious costs in terms of debt, flexibility, and confidence that are not calculated into the factor. Spending should be in areas that improve overall wealth or reduce liabilities. 

The paper is solid in the sense that numbers are only just numbers and relying on them too heavily can lead to policy mistakes that can be costly down the road. Overreliance on a single number encourages greater government spending and interventionism that can be self-perpetuating as politicians seek to justify new and expanded budgets at the detriment longer term sustainability. Using a battery of different numbers can help provide a greater context more data points to understanding true growth and development. 

Strow, B. & Strow, C. (2013). Gross Actual Product: Why GDP Fosters Increased

Government Spending and Should Be Replaced. The Journal of Private Enterprise, 29(1)

Improving Consumer Confidence and 3.5% GDP Comes with a Warning

The economy took a jump from July to September as Gross Domestic Product (GDP) calculations rose 3.5%. This is great news for those hoping to finish off the last of the recession and move onto more prosperous times. This improvement is the largest in a single quarter since 2003 and parallels higher levels of consumer enthusiasm. Positive news also comes with a warning to redirect focus to balancing budgets, encouraging long-term economic growth, and reducing income disparity.  

To add to this positive news the University of Michigan’s consumer confidence index also jumped to 86.9 in October when compared to 84.6 in September.  With GDP expanding and consumer confidence rising few can argue that the world’s super power isn’t regaining economic ground. 

Measuring economic growth often rests on imperfect numbers such as GDP that can create improper assumptions among decision-makers. GDP is seen as the total market value of the goods and services produced by a nation over a certain period (Kolb, 2008). That number includes all final goods and services generated by economic resources within a nation. 

GDP product doesn’t consider the production of American citizens but any business or entity that works within a nation. It is an important distinction, as the global world can allow companies to do business within the U.S., but be owned by foreigners that still contributing to local growth.

Despite its wide reaching use GDP is not a perfect measurement. There is a fundamental difference between wealth creation and increased production. According to Strow & Strow (2013) GDP can encourage lawmakers to push for increased government spending but ignore wealth creation as a primary function of economic expansion. 

As an imperfect measurement the improvement of GDP and increasing consumer confidence are positive markers for the potential of future growth. Growth years are also times when the strategies of lawmakers and business leaders should also change to make such growth long lasting. Unfortunately, too many wait until another crisis occurs before refreshing their thinking.  

When the economy improves officials sometimes focus on maximizing additional spending to balance old budgets and encourage pet projects. With the ending of unprecedented government asset purchases, historic low inflation, and a few deficit improvements it is important to focus on reasonable budget reduction plans, improving economic trade conditions, and the reduction of income disparity. The underpinnings that lead to growth should not be ignored for short-term budget advantages.

Kolb, R. (2008). Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Encyclopedia of business ethics and society. 

Strow, B. & Strow, C. (2013). Gross actual product: why GDP fosters increased government spending and should be replaced. The Journal of Private Enterprise, 29 (1).

Improving Economic Activity Through Tariff Reductions

Trade is at the root of economic development. The easy movement of products and services across borders helps create an interconnected world where opportunities for international goods and companies abound. A paper by Dzerniek-Hanouze & Doherty (2013) discussed the significant advantages that can be found by opening trade routes at a national and regional level to ensure that products and services move smoothly to their destinations. 

All trade is based on selling products from one entity to the next. According to Black’s Law Dictionary Trade is ,”The act or business of exchanging commodities by barter; or the business of buying and selling for money; traffic; barter.” A value laden product must transfer hands from one person to the next while a reciprocal value laden item (i.e. money) is exchanged in return. 

Before revenue can be earned through the selling of products these products must be available and present for purchase. This means that the product is available on store shelves, online, or in the locality for customers to purchase. The buyer and seller must be connected together in some way through virtual or physical means to exchange information, items, or financial value. 

The same process must occur when products and services are built. Available items are used to construct higher level products to earn more on the market. Unnecessary tariffs, restrictions, and levies between suppliers and creators directly reduce the possibilities of further growth and development. This means fewer products are shipped out and less revenue gained. 

The supply chain is the vine that is used to move products and services. When tariffs by importing countries are high it impacts the cost and quantity of those products being moved. As costs increase the likelihood that they will be purchased by locals is reduced; it is a customer equity choice. Tariffs are a direct attempt to damage the supply chain mechanisms. 

Improving the flow of products and services is important in speeding up the economy. For example, improving upon inspections, security technology, communications, and transport can also improve upon the costs of moving these products. Lower costs can often result in improved revenue for companies that rely on imported supplies. 

The concept of economic hubs doesn’t make it exclusively into the paper but the author does indicate that reduced borders increase the spillover effects in management, technological know-how, and access to new technologies that move beyond the goods themselves. The production of products and services enhances the skill and abilities of multiple sectors within the economy. 

The authors offered some interesting statistics. For example, the World Economic Forum, The World Bank and Bain & Co. in 2012 indicated that reducing trade barriers could increase global gross domestic product by $2.6 trillion or 5%.  Ebay also indicated in a study that removing virtual barriers improved small business growth by 60-80%. The end result of their analysis is that if countries moved half-way to best practice there would be a 4.7% GDP increase, a moderate reduction of restrictions would improve GDP 2.6%, and a removal of tariffs would result in a .7% increase in GDP. 

Drzeniek-Hanouz, M. & Doherty, S. (2013). Trade facilitation, international supply chains and SME competitiveness. International Trade Forum, 4