Fire Modeling Efforts and the Science of Safety: (Model and Validation)

Creating models is helpful for understanding fire behavior and how best to prevent them. Fire research digs into the "how's" and "why's" of fire behaviors and then seeks to improve training and development. Such models can be used to analyze and predict fire behavior that leads to safer dwelling construction, techniques on fire fighting, and ultimately less loss of lives and property.  Whether you are a firefighter or not you can appreciate how the scientific method is used to make our world a better place. 

You will notice when you read Fire Modeling Development and Validation that the researchers are using technology to analyze fire behaviors. Modeling comes from using prior data to predict behaviors while validation leads to see if such predictions were/are true. There is a method that helps ensure that the results are useful and valid. If one continues to update the model it will get better, more useful and more accurate.

Reading about Scientific Modeling helps in understanding how they work to understand and with luck predict the market. It is like a supported explanation/prediction of how factors interact with each other to create a result (or predict a phenomenon). The more complex the model, the more research that must go into forming that model. Sometimes it can take decades to understand a complex concept.

It is not enough to build a model on prior research, yours or others, but that one must determine whether or not is is accurate and does what it says its going to do. This will require a level of validation. You may read about Model Validation. When conducting validation one reviews their data and ensures that the explanation mirrored as closely as possible what actually did happen (reality and abstraction). 

Firefighting is becoming more of a science type industry. As we deal with things like global warming, environmental change, large forest fires (i.e. California) you will find that building models of where and when such fires are going ot occur. As a sort of extrapolation we may find that someday with sensors we will be able to predict most fires before they start. They also tell us the best ways to put out specific fires under spreading conditions.

*In case your intersted I'm also looking for about $50K for a fire department to start a training program and buy some treaining equipment and supplies. Thinking about a 4-6 Week fire safety and training course for anyone who wants to take one.  It might include CPR, basic fire awareness, fire prevention, safety, etc. and open the equipment up to area departments. Beyond raising fire awareness in the area one might also be able to provide introductory training for recruitment and induction into departments. If they can pass a basic one with a certificate they are likely to have the skills to train as a working FF. Thus, if you have some corporate money leave me a message and I will point you to a non-profit fire department. Its an idea. Tax deductible!