Conference Board Index CEI Indicates No Recession but Possible Slow Growth Q2 and Q3, 2024

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index (CEI) for the U.S. rose by 0.2 percent in January 2024 to 112.1 (2016=100). That is after a 0.2 percent increase in December 2023. It does not signal a recession but does project slower real GDP growth Q2 and Q3. 

We will just have to wait to see what happens. Let us keep an eye out for other information from other sources that comes forward to see which way the winds are blowing.

Key Points:

-Six out of its ten components were positive contributors over the past six-month period.

- Three out of four components of the index were positive in January, with payroll employment and personal income having a bigger factor.

-Slow real GDP growth around Q2 and Q3.

There are 10 components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (Conference Board, 2024, para 6.), quoted, 

(If you don't know what the components mean read Description of Components)

"The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for the U.S. include: Average weekly hours in manufacturing; Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance; Manufacturers’ new orders for consumer goods and materials; ISM® Index of New Orders; Manufacturers’ new orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders; Building permits for new private housing units; S&P 500® Index of Stock Prices; Leading Credit Index™; Interest rate spread (10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds rate); Average consumer expectations for business conditions.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/ "

The Conference Board (Feb. 20, 2024) US Leading Economic Index® (LEI) Fell Further in January. https://www.blogger.com/blog/post/edit/2923159674379861305/2952137772727677595