Friday, December 22, 2023

Third Estimate GDP Q3 2023 U.S.-Not too shabby! Hopefully its keeps going!

GDP rising, spending up, disposable income increasing and things seem to be moving forward decently. The information below is like a quick snap shot of some of the basic points of the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) December 21st 2023 release. Notice from the chart on the bottom there was a market disruption during COVID and then an eventual settling out of these wide market swings. What I'm looking at from a research standpoint is whether that level post pandemic is benchmarked at higher then pre pandemic in a way that indicates that a quick infusion of technology and business adaptation has changed some of the fundamentals [i.e. manufacturing return, increased GDP, etc.]

Other data have indicated that the labor market and human capital has not grown as fast and could be the key to enhancing those things that are doing well while encouraging high societal participation. At this point there are multiple benefits that may come from higher economic human capital engagement of which only some are in the economic realm.

The following information was quoted from Gross Domestic Product (Third Estimate), Corporate Profits (Revised Estimate), and GDP by Industry, Third Quarter 2023. To put this information in full context you really should read the release.

-"Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 4.9 percent in the third quarter of 2023 (table 1), according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 2.1 percent.

-The increase in real GDP reflected increases in consumer spending, private inventory investment, exports, state and local government spending, federal government spending, residential fixed investment, and nonresidential fixed investment. Imports increased (table 2).

-Disposable personal income increased $143.5 billion, or 2.9 percent, in the third quarter, a downward revision of $0.5 billion from the previous estimate.

Personal saving was $851.2 billion in the third quarter, an upward revision of $35.9 billion from the previous estimate. The personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 4.2 percent in the third quarter, an upward revision of 0.2 percentage point.

-Profits from current production (corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments) increased $108.7 billion in the third quarter, an upward revision of $3.0 billion from the previous estimate (table 10).

-Profits of domestic nonfinancial corporations increased $90.8 billion, an upward revision of $14.7 billion. Rest-of-the-world profits increased $8.8 billion, a downward revision of $1.9 billion. In the third quarter, receipts increased $22.0 billion, and payments increased $13.2 billion."







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