Dr. Powell discusses rates and the economy for 2023 and 2024. Inflation and growth are both expected to decline. They are related. The relationship between inflation and GDP is complex but there is at least a tertiary one. Consider Inflation: Banks, Inflation and Growth. Its a mixed bag with recession possible but increasingly unlikely. As inflation declines so does the chances of high growth (In partially supported theory. There are lots of confounding variables in the market and relationships with such broad implications are anything but causal). However, the projections are based on a number of assumptions of prior economic behaviors. It is not definitive because there has been variance in the market thus far. Even bringing the economy to a healthier place without a recession is fairly rare historically. Hats off to you Dr. Powell (Seriously, he earned it this round. Very nice work and brilliant. )!
The thing I'm looking for in the post-Covid economy is the adaptation of the business community and a level homeostasis between the U.S. economy and the global market. We will have to see if a trend settles out at a slightly higher functioning level that could potentially indicate an improved U.S. competitive base/position. (Comparing broad economic indexes across different time frames helps. Once we find a level stable trend we can "pretend" it is a new base level and see what changed occurred in only a few years. If lucky that may have highlighted broad economic shift. "Pretend" meaning an economic number to anchor other assumptions. Change the "pretend" number to an updated number based on additional trend data and you can watch how an analysis changes. Theoretically you could do this if you had the time and no friends. 🤓 Ok..sorry Its not hard if you accept the apple to maple comparison across a number of broad based measurements. Not in my plans at the moment. Rather be surfing and working on my beach bum alternative career 🏄 and my palm tree retirement napping spot. 🌴 Grab a philosophy book and that is the best life can offer. Maybe get a job sweeping up or clerking at a store for a few side $$ and well I'm richer then most people. <<< Umm...makes me wonder. 🧔🌞We should probably work on fixing that. The nation is brimming full of the power of untapped human capital just waiting to be watered and spouted into full bloom.🌱 Farmers of future opportunities will seek to sow the seeds of how technology magnifies the abilities of people. )
(This "platform settling" could provide a hint of a higher market homeostasis based on the amount of quickly increased digital online activities as a % of the economy/GDP. Another way of saying that new technologies have improved U.S. total productivity and expanded human capital (as a tool). That would happen through many trillions of micro transactions fundamental to an economy. Prior research supports the GDP growth from the Internet through its additive efficiencies and expanded creativity/innovation. That same growth increase could come from new AI, infrastructure, new investments, etc. adaptations. In other words, the pandemic forced companies to change some fundamentals of the market, created some chaos, and then settled into something higher functioning/adapted. Theoretically, but only time will answer that question for sure. An open scientific question yet unanswered. 🤔)
Platforms or Flatforms? Let us wait and see....
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