Why Supporting Ukraine is Still Important in Negotiations: Europe is likely to do more.

The fight between Ukraine and Russia is a sad state of affair and lots of people are getting hurt and towns are being wiped out. The independence of Ukraine is at stake and so in many ways the long term health of the Russian people. The dropping, temporary or permanent, of funding must be a scary thing for Ukrainians. This is where Europe is likely to start supporting more to fill some of those gaps. Whether that is enough remains to be seen. EU Visits Ukraine

What might be of benefit is finding a way to settle out the conflict and find peace in some way or form. Independence of Ukraine is important to consider in that process. Is it possible to find a balance where Ukraine functions as an independent state while ensuring there is lasting peace with Russians? No one wants to be here again in a few years. I sure hope so and that would require both parties to come to the table with heartfelt enthusiasm.

It is such a complex situation and I wonder if there is any middle ground between the sides that have life and death interest in the outcomes. One can understand why emotions are high. People lost their lives. Peace and saving lives should always be the highest aspiration. I think the discussion should start where lists of requests are presented and the bright minds involved and in the world start to think of what long term peace looks like. 

What are the essential issues and has that been lost in the fight? Are there middle ground between the two conflictual parties?

In the meantime, I think that cutting funding at this time is unlikely to be helpful in negotiating that peace. Sure it might end the issue but under such circumstances its unlikely to end it well for Ukraine. It might also reflect negatively on the whole situation making such defending and independence moves very risky. Think about lack of long term support and its influence on decision making.

While this is Ukraine's (and Russia's) fight, I do believe we have some stake in making sure it ends in a way that supports and strengthens democratic institutions and nations. Once its been settled we might think of ways of mending long term relationships between all parties in a way that is helpful for everyone. That requires a structure of peace.

I suspect it will end in greater independence of Ukraine but not in a complete independent way (Likely immunities, except for intentional civilian atrocities, and stronger independence of Ukrainian institutions and financial management.). While its not ideal I suspect power sharing and greater international oversite might be on the table if they cannot secure full independence soon. As they say now or never because support is unlikely based on current public sentiment to go years into the future.

Perhaps some of that will considered as the nations go into winter low simmer (assuming).

Time will answer all questions on how this turns out.......

Mediating International Conflict