Monday, October 23, 2023

U.S. Economy Growing in Q3 2023 (Consumers and Fundamentals)

 It looks like the U.S. economy is growing and expanding at a high pace in Q3 2023 when compared to many other nations. You can read a solid article at American Economy Hot Streak Fortune. What we find is that most economists projected in the past that we would be in a recession at this point. That recession projection has been delayed to sometime in 2024. Consumers seem to be lifting the economy during this quarter along with some economic fundamentals.

What is unique about this situation is that the U.S. could be moving to a higher economic platform through changes in supply chain, investment in infrastructure, and improvements in advanced manufacturing. We don't really know if that is sustainable unless we have a long term homeostasis of the economy. At present the U.S. is taking on some characteristics of an emerging economy (Emerging to what is the central question?). 

A few key points:

-3Q U.S. is expanding.

-July to Sept 4.3% GDP growth (Bloomberg Economy Survey 3Q)

-4% projection consumer growth 3Q, 2023

-Forecasts of 3.7% increase in the core personal consumption expenditures price index (removes volatile food and energy prices)

-4.7% projected GDP annualized pace and 4.2% projected consumer spending.

-Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI Index) moved to .02 from -.22 as projected in September (Gauges overall activity and inflationary pressure from 85 economic indicators)

You may also want to watch Federal Reserve Jerome Powel Chair Address on 10/19/23.  Fed Chair Econ NY. (There are some protests on the video. Can't make out what they are saying. Lights went out. 🦻)You can also check out the Economic Club of New York


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