The U.S. Economy is extremely strong and most of the projections were wrong over the past few years. Well, almost all of them were wrong as there was one that said the 23/24 timeframe post Covid would be strong. However, we do have some more uncertainty with the geo-political issues and their impact. Such geopolitical issues are harder to predict in terms of economic impact and outcomes because it depends on large scale industry and supply chain adaptations. However, according to the report things seem to look pretty bright for the U.S. in the near term. Resilient Global Economy Still Limping Along, With Growing Divergences
You may be interested in a summary analysis from Rueter's article IMF says global economy 'limping along', cuts growth forecast for China, euro zone
A Few Pieces from the Report:
-World economic growth will slow from 3.5 percent in 2022 to 3 percent this year and 2.9 percent next year.
-Headline inflation continues to decelerate, from 9.2 percent in 2022 on a year-over-year basis, to 5.9 percent 2023 and 4.8 percent in 2024.
-Most countries aren’t likely to return inflation to target until 2025.
-US projected unemployment 3.6 percent to 3.9 percent by 2025.
-Global output is $3.6 trillion which is less than pandemic projections.
-Total investment is down with less willingness to invest.
A Few Suggestions Not in the Report:
Maybe there is a way to bump up the mid and long term prospects as well. Maybe not?
-Improve human capital, productivity, and creativity/innovation through education, training and technology. Best and brightest and less on who you know may appear wishful but has practical outcomes if mastered.
-Resolve labor-pay issues and focus on incentives for human capital growth, adaptability to new technologies, and contributory participation in industry/corporate/business success. Requires a paradigm shift from prior labor-management rationality.
-Draw investment so as to improve U.S. economic root industries. Relies on factors related from strong justice/legal systems that protect commerce/liberties and improve broad motivations all the way over to strong economic policies that encourage innovative industry development. A systems approach.
-Continue to develop digital era infrastructure that ranges from data highways to ports and everything in between. i.e. electric grid with localized sources that feed the larger system for resilience.
-Improve the ecological and economic benefit of our natural resources through pollution management/reversal improvement of environmental health. i.e. Great Lakes or ocean and protein/fish supply and biodiversity. Such ideas seem on the surface unconnected but is part of a larger perpetual sustainable system that can maintain itself and draw societal and economic value from the environment.
-Improve innovation in green technologies and energy source development.
-Develop new ways to limit crime and instability through economic engagement and more pathways to productive societal engagement. Reduces the shadow market and improves engagement/growth opportunities through understanding universal human needs.
-Discovering methods of reducing debt while ensuring government programs are reviewed, efficient and effective. Should be done in process oriented manner over a period of time. Resources can be used in other areas to improve net positives.
-Create business connections and supply chains globally so as to draw the highest value to the U.S.
-Create a shared vision for the nation and solve problems bi/tri partisan way. Less rhetoric and more focus on the "we" of society.
-Probably much more but just a few thoughts to ponder. They are not perfect and I would guess very elementary and perhaps idealist in nature. Thumb in wind. Feel free to discard. Maybe you have a few of your own?
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