Forecasting of Market: 65% of CNBC Indicate Systemic Risk - Interest Rate Hike? No?

Tomb of Old Kingdom
Ancient Economic Thought
Economies are based on thought
and behaviors.

Forecasting the market can help companies make decisions. What you will find from the forecast composite in the video is that people are not really sure. You have 40% numbers and you have other things going on that would indicate variability. That uncertainty has real impact on the market and isn't necessarily a bad thing if caution leads to strategic choices to invest in upswing industries that might include industries dealing with examples such as ship building, core technologies, nano tech, batteries, human capital, etc. or something else that might lead to greater return rates (You have to do your homework to figure out what those are. These are just examples for illustrative purposes.). 

When we are accurate with forecasting we often find that we can make better choices and invest in upswinging markets. Knowing how strong those markets might be depends on the ability to take various forms of data and then make inferences based on prior economic research. Many times these are done by hard calculations but I might do them by anchoring to human adaptability and behaviors that leads to collective choice. Yes, economics is about human behavior. 🤔 

For example, I had hoped we would finish out this year strong and then move into a more stable homeostasis based on some underling changes in the market.  Things like ease of transference all the way over to normal organizational pattern disruption during Covid are part of that thought. Am I right? No idea...don't care...hope so....because its good for the economy. If I'm wrong does that make me a poor forecaster. Nope...forecasters are often wrong about a lot of things! Me too! 😲 

Covid was novel and the quick influx of digital GDP may make some forecasting more difficult until there is a body of research developed that better allows for model generation and accuracy of those forecasts. Likely why the Fed is sometimes not completely sure of what to do in all situations. Its just not easy and there are risks to every forecast when broad policies have big impact. There was an article on Wall Street Mojo Economic Forecasting 

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