US GDP Grew Faster than China: Will it be a long-term shift?

Mechanical Sketch

Leonardo Da Vinci

As a representation of the

impact of science,

engineering, and innovation

on economics.

One might think of the Internet

as creating new economic

platforms and new growth.

There has been some positive news on the economic front as US GDP growth is poised to overcome China's and do so for some time in the near future (There also has been discussion on a long term weakening of Chinas Economy.) The reasons haven't been ferreted out yet in a concrete scientific manner, but I'm sure most researchers will be looking at the notes to analyze why. The reasons and explanations may be many but I provide a few thoughts below.

This could mean there is a switch in the basics structure of the economy as well as a change in some of the economic fundamentals. For example, the leap into the digital economy along with international conflict and emerging challenges may have changed some assumptions and in turn economic focus. Beliefs and focus have real outcomes.

Keep in mind the economics is the measurement of choice in quantifiable monetary units. The science is at its root based in how we perceive opportunities and most advantageous choices to reach certain goals. We make an individual choice that leads to collective choices that have an influence on resources from a macro perspective. 

(Different people have different goals but we also have collective goals). 

To fully understand economics one can rely heavily on numbers and calculations but move beyond that into the 'winds of change' often described as animal spirits of collective behaviors. In this case, it appears there could be broad based fundamental shifts of focus that impact our economic choices and outcomes. This is why short decisions sometimes have an impact on long term outcomes. 

Column: The ultimate 2023 consensus-buster - US grows faster than China? Bullet points I took from this article.

-0.8% in the second quarter.

-U.S. economy expanded 1.2%.

-Barclays moved their third and fourth quarter China GDP growth forecasts from 4.9% and 2.8%. They also lowered their China's GDP call to 4.5% from 4.9%. 

On the positive side for the U.S.......

Latest estimate: 5.8 percent -- August 16, 2023 GDP Now Federal Reserve

"The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2023 is 5.8 percent on August 16, up from 5.0 percent on August 15. After this morning's housing starts report from the US Census Bureau and industrial production report from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, the nowcasts of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 4.4 percent and 8.8 percent, respectively, to 4.8 percent and 11.4 percent." (Atlanta Federal Reserve).

Other Reading:

National Infrastructure-New Voice Old Wisdom

Influence of Digital US GDP

Forecasting on Fringe BOAGDP Contracts 1st Q of 2020-Is It a Short Lived Shock and Digital GDP Recovery?

US Growing and China is Slowing

Digital Transformation

Balanced Budgets

Mixed Economic Data

National Vision

Game Theory China and US,

IMF and the Economy

SWOTCHUS

Soft Landings

The Eagles Eggs

*These writings have a learning purpose. Alternative explanatory options. Feel free to discard.