Economists believe there won't be a recession. Over the past year there has been a discussion on whether we were going to have a recession or we are going to slide through it (Some even argue growth) Most economists were predicting that we would have a recession while a few maybe had different ideas. When we are predicting out past 6 months it can be difficult.
I have a transactional clusters theory I have been working on that so far as been somewhat accurate in its prediction that 23'/24' would be a positive transition (I don't really care if its accurate or not. Its just something to do. Maybe next time I'm wrong. Positive growth is generally positive. ). We are likely going to find a new economic homeostasis at some point in terms of interest rates, growth rates, etc. that will be at a different level then what might be our current economic benchmarks.
(Maybe we can find that innovative advanced manufacturing shifts in the U.S. lead to higher growth rates mimicking the growth rates of emerging nations. Its an innovation adaptation issue. Emerging nations have high growth rates because they are in the process of updating and finding capacities that return capital. i.e. net positives. Advanced nations can likely do this with innovative cluster environments that create butterfly wider adaptations with new products/inventions to the rest of the system. )
One of the reasons why economists had a difficult time is because they are working with new assumptions in the post covid world where much more of society abruptly went online and played havoc on our economic projections. One has to go back to the basic economic assumptions inherent in traditional economic theory and compare that with the growth in non physical transactions and products that may have different root assumptions. i.e. the need for new theories and/or updated theories in Post Covid world.
Anway, its a very good article.
Fed, economists make course correction on US recession predictions
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