Sunday, July 16, 2023

Q2 China GDP Declines: A Few Economic Thoughts

The news says China Q2 GDP missed expectations with a mile 6.3% growth rate. You can read about that in the NY Times article 'China’s Rebound Falters, Tripped Up by Debt and Weak Exports'. The Federal Reserve forecasted that U.S. GDP may be around 2.3% which is revised up from 2.1% earlier (You can read the estimate in GDP Now. By the time you read this there may be a new estimate so look around.). Let us pay special attention to the trajectory where one GDP is heading downward and another is heading upward. 

Furthermore, considering there are some market factors influencing a return to manufacturing interest, investment, and infrastructure to the U.S. By the end of the year, we should have a pretty good idea of whether these are short or long lived trends; or whether they are trends at all! We just have to pay attention to the economic news and stay up-to-date on economic happenings.

(As a side note you may also want to look at the employment rate of youth in China as indicators of social transition and human capital management. Human Capital development through diversity is an unexplored opportunity for the U.S. to augment other economic initiatives.)

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