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The leading economic indicators are down 0.7% and hints that we could risk a recession. This is a very nice article that discusses indicators in greater depth. Lots of charts and graphs. CB Leading Economic Index Declines Further as Looming Recession Signal Continues
You can also go on the Conference Board's webpage. and read the Conference Board's Leading Indicators July 20th, 2023 Press Release.
Furthermore, you can also review this article to determine What Are Leading Economic Indicators?
A few comments.....
Everyone is so negative. 😒 I like to be more of an optimist. 😁 Just because there is a decline in some of the LEI doesn't mean are recession is guaranteed. 🙅 I would think of these as more like an increased probability based on what is currently being measured in the market. These measurements are designed to give a broad understanding of the market but they are not the only measurements. 👍
It can still go either way......
There are other things that are going on that would create economic lift. They are not guaranteed either. So the best we can say "There is an increased risk of recession based on upon the LEI metrics". If you feel comfortable with the information then great, but if you feel there is more to the story then go find other economic measurements and incorporate them into your decision making. The Conference Board has a great metric system and is more likely to be more right then wrong, but look at it in terms of probabilities and not a guaranteed recession. Its a relative term.
If it was easy and everyone is 100% correct then we would all be rich! (Hypothetically, if we were all rich then even some of the rich would still be poor today. In other words rich and poor are relative to those around you. Economics is a social measurement by nature. Don't live for money alone because there are many more things in this world.)
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